{"id":9245,"date":"2024-06-27T08:49:37","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T06:49:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-06-27-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T12:30:35","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T10:30:35","slug":"2024-06-27-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-06-27-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-06-27"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I believe North Korea is sending blocking units and suspect that the Kadyrovites will be pulled back to Chechnya when things heat up in the nearby area. Hard to believe that NK will send half a million men, and a few dozen brigades don’t serve much purpose.<\/p>\n

Then the best use is loyal blocking units when the Russian soldiers get tired of the war. Says a lot about Putin.<\/p>\n

Now thirst is also coming as a morale sink for the Russians. We already know their logistics are non-existent but in 30-degree blazing sun, water shortage can quickly become acute and if nothing else, they drink contaminated water from puddles. There are probably bodies in the watercourses almost everywhere by now. Two months of acute thirst, hopefully, will affect them negatively.<\/p>\n

Ukraine’s persistent decimation of the logistics has probably had the intended effect as more and more RU units complain about food shortages. Tannenberg meets 2024.<\/p>\n

The Maginot Line 2024 looks like it could fall even faster than the French one if Russia just figures out amphibious operations \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kvveo4ta4t2y<\/a><\/p>\n

War with Lebanon also seems close now and it will take even more focus away from the Ukraine war. The question I ask myself is how Hez…ah after seeing H…as wiped out can want a full war with I..el.
\nThey are naturally hopeless but it will be the focus point for the West for a while and of course another commissioned job by Putin through Iran.
\nI feel quite sorry for Lebanon as a country, the client here is largely Christian Lebanese down here and they are very down right now.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kvvazlq2dg27<\/a><\/p>\n

For 2.5 years Finland has bought Russian LNG and thus contributed to Putin’s war chest. Yes, breaking agreements is not easy and crashing your own country is not desirable, and UA has let the transit gas flow throughout the war. And Russia, which can’t hit a field, has managed to miss that infrastructure.
\nSweden probably still buys Russian LNG and many other countries?
\nBut it highlights how toothless the sanctions against Russia are and how much the West finances what is now playing out in Ukraine.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1805744647370948908?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And then it\u2019s not so bad that Ukraine solves it in the simplest way and blows up the export valve, otherwise it will probably never end \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/glasnostgone\/status\/1801642424382480789?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I have stuck my neck out a bit and written that Ukraine will go on the offensive in 2024 and that we will see mechanized combat. Right now it is mechanized counterattacks so a bit more intensity than this is needed for it to be classified as an offensive and an attempt to break through.<\/p>\n

The reason for this is that all equipment and ammunition have been rushed through during winter \u2013 spring and preparations have been made for this. On the southern front, they now have amphibious combat capability and on the northern front, they have assembled a battle group that far exceeds what they need in defense.
\nMine-clearing equipment has been delivered in large quantities along with fragmentation protection and it would be strange if they let Russia be until summer 2025, in my opinion.<\/p>\n

We will see mechanized combat for the simple reason that it is the only way to regain terrain and Ukraine needs to regain terrain to liberate its country.<\/p>\n

UA also reasonably understands that frozen frontlines in the long run mean that Putin gets their land because there are again rumors of negotiations and now RU has sent representatives to the USA, exactly for what purpose is unclear.
\nPutin cannot read the room and still demands many provinces for peace which is perfect.<\/p>\n

And here it is clearly evident that a third world war is going on or what, straight from the horse\u2019s mouth (pun intended).
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kvv5dbkt332p<\/a><\/p>\n

This is not moving fast at all from the West but the screws are being tightened inexorably actually and we are a bit like the boiling frog seeing the changes step by step.
\nTake a step back \u2013 in 2022 UA got some HIMARS and some ancient fragmentation protection and the West grudgingly resourced the offensive in 2023 somewhat. 2024 is completely different \u2013 now Ukraine is getting what they need to win even if the turns around advanced aircraft are at least strange.<\/p>\n

Now UA has permission to strike targets on Russian soil, they have a plethora of rockets from the West and have built their own indirect capabilities with drone weapons and their own long-range rockets.<\/p>\n

The maneuver brigades should have the equipment they need if you look at what has been delivered and that the whole EU contributes with workshops for service, and that UA\u2019s offensive ended in early autumn 2023.<\/p>\n

Russia has hopelessly lost the strategic bombing war \u2013 I stand by that. Has anyone heard them complain even a word about refinery losses yet after 42 attacks?<\/p>\n

A baseline here all else equal (that China does not actively join the war and that risk increases over time) is that Ukraine can calmly shoot away all of Russia\u2019s refinery capacity in a year or two.<\/p>\n

It is not a bad position UA is actually in, in 2023 it was Russia that shot away Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure but now the roles are reversed and RU can never regain the initiative.<\/p>\n

Then the observant have seen that between the refineries and UA launch sites for long-range drones there are thousands of high-value targets.<\/p>\n

That Ukraine is now conducting mechanized counterattacks I think shows that it did not become \u2013 WW1 warfare, a big nothing at all without air superiority, and that the drone weapon would lie like a wet blanket over all movements.
\nUkraine started K2 2024 to launch their first anti-drone drones and they work according to their own statement.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/uacontrolmap\/status\/1803498338735845425?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Mech combat at the northern front
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/warmonitor3\/status\/1804546005527830674?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Movement in the Kreminna forests
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/lost_warinua\/status\/1802969950216176094<\/a><\/p>\n

Here you have a US variant of anti-drone drones.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/historyinmemes\/status\/1802536896695828753?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I believe the value of getting the shooters fragmentation-protected in the defenders\u2019 trench systems remains and being able to exploit breakthroughs with fragmentation protection and armor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I will cut down on domestic politics and the West\u2019s condition in general but I find it interesting that France has gone from 0 to 100 in a few months since Macron threw the script and went after Putin., Caledonia(?), new election, out of Africa, right-wing demonstrations and left-wing demonstrations and now apparently the Islamists also joined the street fights.
\nAlmost only the Basques\u2019 fight for freedom is missing.<\/p>\n

Chat Control 2.0 came timely for Farage and Le Pen as usual, I don\u2019t know how the discussion has gone around it in France but in Sweden it is an open goal for those who voted against it, right?
\nThere is probably not a sensible Swede who thinks it\u2019s good and after the addition that \u201cpoliticians and security-classified officials should be exempted for security reasons\u201d my top blew (was not in Sweden but in the EU).
\nThe only positive thing was that it came after the EU election and not before.<\/p>\n

France, which everyone loves to hate, is the country that has its own arms industry without American components and an electricity production that is not dependent on Russia \u2013 was that such a wrong idea?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1805678375803273704?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Could this be one of Putin’s threats \u2013 that if you as an elected leader go against me, your country will be thrown into chaos from within?
\nCould leaders in the West have taken this into account?
\nCan Putin threaten with murder?<\/p>\n

Apparently, he planned to murder someone at the peace conference in June
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1803085180027945335?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Putin does not shy away from murder, and during the Cold War there was a lot of killing.<\/p>\n

Somewhat like witnesses being threatened into silence by gangs or when the Gothenburg municipality looks the other way in everything related to criminal clans?
\nIf you as a person are not protected and are exposed to threats, and feel that you cannot be protected, then there is a risk that you are willing to compromise your integrity, and if you also get a ten-million incentive directly into your wife’s limited company for some fictitious work, it hurts less.<\/p>\n

“Why should we support Ukraine, we will get domestic political chaos on our hands and possibly become political pariahs because of it, better to leave Ukraine alone.” An opposition is always ready to take over, whether it is right or left \u2013 and if it is an opposition where Putin has influence, they can really nip the sitting government in the heels, right?<\/p>\n

I don’t know, but Macron certainly has his hands full right now and is becoming increasingly quiet.<\/p>\n

The absolute best way to topple rogue regimes is to get popular protests going, do you think it is different in the freedom of speech West and how best to paralyze a sitting government?<\/p>\n

Re-election and constant quarrels about peripheral issues, for example?<\/p>\n

I’ll leave it at that by noting that it was calm between 1989 \u2013 2010 roughly, draw your own conclusions about that\u2026<\/p>\n

Actually found someone who celebrated Midsummer among all our elected officials who no longer care \u2013 the Japanese ambassador.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/dukanvabajskorv\/status\/1804448705426100461?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If you think this sounds like full conspiracy theory, then I remind you that this was the case during the Cold War and Russia has been at war with the West since 2010.<\/p>\n

We have long said that this war is already over but yes, it will not end until Putin throws in the towel.
\nThe West has, through its policy of not escalating, prolonged the war by years but that is now behind us and Ukraine will rise as a country even if probably a couple of million are irreparably broken by the war, but a couple of generations from now life will be normal.<\/p>\n

There are three ways this ends \u2013<\/p>\n

– Putin or his circle manages to navigate this (or handover to the opposition with lots of guarantees of eternal luxury life but that is tricky in Russia \u2013 see Prigozhin) and shamelessly simply withdraws from Ukraine and proclaims victory. The West normalizes relations as thanks \u2013 bad option.<\/p>\n

– The army refuses war or palace coup (which means the opposition takes over) \u2013 both will likely have far-reaching consequences for Russia and they turn inward for a while before the purge is over.<\/p>\n

– Putin is thrown out of Ukraine in a fair war, Putin probably will not survive it and Russia turns inward (for a while).
\nUnfortunately, I suspect that the West is now trying to force option one (1) either with Putin or with an identified opposition in some kind of handover.<\/p>\n

That will be enough for Europe and Ukraine but unfortunately more countries will experience a Ukraine within ten years, but memory is probably too short.<\/p>\n

The magic line against the barbarians and an EU that participates in paying for the perimeter defense + our intervention brigades will have a cooling effect for another 70 years before everything is repeated.<\/p>\n

EU will never again have a global conflict within our territory, Ukraine took the full hit and the next global conflict, or if the current one escalates in its startup, will be fought in Asia, Africa or maybe South America.
\nEU’s territorial security is guaranteed for generations to come which is a big step up from previous global conflicts that took place on European soil.<\/p>\n

A history lesson \u2013 did you know that Croatia had very good contacts with Russia before and during the Yugoslav wars? The war started when Croatia declared its independence together with Slovenia.<\/p>\n

Russia’s goal is always to create chaos and no alliances are too bad for that, freely copied and pasted from Wikipedia.
\n\u201cAccording to the allegations in the Croatian press, in violation of the UN arms embargo imposed on the former Yugoslavia, during the Croatian War of Independence, significant amounts of arms were delivered from Russia to Croatia. Russian president Boris Yeltsin allegedly approved shipments of weapons by 150 airplanes, which took off from a military base 200 kilometers east of Moscow in the period from 1992 to 1997. There were 150 to 160 flights that transported hundreds of tons of weaponry per year. In April 2017, former Croatian president Ivo Josipovi\u0107 said that \u201dduring the war, Russia helped Croatia, not only with weaponry, but also politically\u201d. In April 2017, Russian Foreign Ministry officials rejected such allegations as false. On 4 November 1996, Russian President Yeltsin awarded Croatian President Franjo Tu\u0111man with Medal of Zhukov. During the 1990s, major fortunes were made in Russia by some Croatian nationals such as Danko Kon\u010dar, who attributed his business success in Russia, among other things, to his \u201dnormal human contact\u201d with the FSB.\u201d<\/p>\n

It took Russia until 2022 (or 2014) before they managed to start the next conflict in Europe’s backyard and they will start another war if they are not locked in the cage, you can be completely sure of that.<\/p>\n

It is becoming increasingly difficult for RU to pursue this but the Spanish breakaway province Catalonia has been seized with Russian contacts and Brexit was a first step to split the EU \u2013 Nigel Farage also has Russian contacts by the way.
\nThe Balkans is still a good candidate for armed conflict and Turkey \u2013 Greece is a conflict zone they can exploit.
\nAlso tensions between extreme Islamism \u2013 others who want peace and quiet in the EU.<\/p>\n

Was Boris Yeltsin considered a heartless warmonger in the West and did we impose sanctions on Russia or was this the period when the West opened the drawing rooms, and the banks, for Russia?<\/p>\n

At the same time as they threw the Balkans into chaos \u2013 they must have laughed themselves to tears over how naive Europe was. After several years we were still arguing about the words in the protest note.<\/p>\n

Anyway, I am not very eager for another Russian extermination war so I would like them to sit in the cage for another 70 years.
\nIf Russia wants to be decolonized \u2013 let the indigenous peoples regain their international freedom. Poland’s president is not wrong and the “slave list” we saw the other day is not wrong either.
\nHow do those who say that Russia will not break up and that it is a natural law explain what actually happened after 1989?
\nOf course Russia will break up further after this, the probability is sky-high.<\/p>\n

But that is in the future and I feel that the engagement extends to Ukraine regaining the 1991 borders and we will probably be there soon depending on what impact the Azov offensive has in Russia.<\/p>\n

And it\u2019s not just us in the thread who believe that the Azov strike could have far-reaching effects for Russia in general.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/colbybadhwar\/status\/1806032625523454279?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Release the flood gates of Sierra
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/strategictrends\/status\/1803124258681614760?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And Sweden\u2019s government is doing excellently \u2013 now they have joined the future robot initiative.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/aidefranceukr\/status\/1805562962242838914?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

-positive -positive for everyone except the hole-Russians who are now drinking muddy water from puddles.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:15 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I believe the opposite, that the North Koreans will have to go in the front line. I think human lives are valued just as \u201chighly\u201d in North Korea as in Russia.<\/p>\n

The Kadyrovites have from the start shown that they prefer to make TikTok videos from the rear lines even though a few of them have ended up in combat. I think they don\u2019t dare force them to the front with the risk that they refuse and go home.<\/p>\n

However, I don\u2019t think the North Koreans have any say at all. I feel a bit sorry for them. I think the only choice they have is death for refusing or death in Ukraine. The Russians can actually choose prison.<\/p>\n

Very nice to see that they could retake some ground west of Kreminna, hope they can continue to press on but as you write, it can\u2019t really be called more than a small local offensive so far.<\/p>\n

I think something has to happen during the winter and it could very well be that there will be a larger offensive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Should I stop posting late at night, you think?<\/p>\n

Isn\u2019t this already the everyday reality for a million Ukrainian soldiers and an entire country?<\/p>\n

Isn\u2019t the fastest way to end the war to try to demoralize the Russians as much as possible and raise the world\u2019s awareness of what this war is?<\/p>\n

Now I do think you may have misinterpreted the first sentence, but you can\u2019t oppose trying to get the widest possible spread of this kind of videos that are demoralizing for the Russians, can you?<\/p>\n

Besides, isn\u2019t this exactly what we are trying to avoid here, right, ourselves and a Russian drone?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:29 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Not at all impossible that all the misery has all along been part of Russia\u2019s evil plan. We\u2019ll see if more revelations come out in the future about who has financed what.<\/p>\n

I wish the Russians all the muddy water they can drink in the hope that it will make them too sick to fight.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:36 \u2013 Johan No.1 I believe North Korea is sending blocking units and suspect that the Kadyrovites will be pulled 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