{"id":9251,"date":"2024-06-30T07:51:09","date_gmt":"2024-06-30T05:51:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-06-30-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T12:31:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T10:31:56","slug":"2024-06-30-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-06-30-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-06-30"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

More lionesses from the world’s second most equal country after I..el.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1807110717935415482?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This description of our Carolean army was an interesting explanation for our scandalous successes until it was no longer possible to always bet everything on red. Sounds like Ukraine has stolen a page from the Caroleans’ handbook when they are to clear fortification systems, and our armored infantry combat followed the same mindset to smash everything straight into the defense as violently as possible. And the coastal rangers’ landings to retake islands, but there probably weren’t many other ways to operate there \u2013 either you retook the island or you were thrown into the water.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/cylinderhatt\/status\/1806971402085343261?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Azov has once again advanced in the Kreminna forests and I want to draw attention to the thread that they have broken far into RU fortifications in the area and should be able to roll up quite a few fortification systems, which they are demi-gods at by now. Evidently, RU must reinforce the area to stabilize the situation but with what?<\/p>\n

RU has a reconnaissance battalion, an MRR, and two territorial regiments, so a low level at 50% of the units, and against them stands Azov with night combat capability and sharpened knives. Ukraine also has several competent units in the area accustomed to this type of combat \u2013 SBU units, an NG “offensive guard,” and one of the older mechanized brigades.<\/p>\n

Not easy terrain to fight in, but if the difference in capability is high, the forest is your worst enemy, which it seems to be for the Russians. They go in and never come out.<\/p>\n

If you remember from Bakhmut and 3rd Assault, it was a UA group against an RU platoon that was wiped out and UA took 1-2 wounded and in the worst case some killed. There is no reason to believe it looks different here with Azov against poorly trained home guard when it is forest and darkness.<\/p>\n

If UA can advance a few kilometers eastward, they have reached NS’s walking arc of the Donets and can then start working northward with eastern flank protection \u2013 this is starting to look interesting.
\nIf UA, for example, takes Kreminna, they have broken through NS’s defensive line through Svatove and can go in a shield towards Severdonetsk or north towards Svatove in an NS tongue of settlements.
\nThis is in directions RU has not prepared defenses in, and then they must move reserves they do not have to the area, otherwise the whole northern Luhansk risks coming into turmoil.
\nOf course, we are not there yet and I am extrapolating very hard.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kw3jsfzo3t2y<\/a><\/p>\n

We must not forget that RU took enormous losses in northern Luhansk earlier during their offensive, so quite a few of the brigades on the unit maps are grilled empty, hollow crying shells. And one can guess that the brigades moved to the northern front and for the Borova offensive are the units that were in the best condition.
\nWhat happened to the terrible Russian offensive that was supposed to reach Lyman that we have read about many times in the media, now Ukraine is advancing instead but the media is asleep?<\/p>\n

North of the town Kreminna, RU looks weak but it is not very nice terrain to move in and RU has tanks if one is to believe the unit maps.<\/p>\n

FIM posted the link below yesterday that the 153rd Tank regiment and Akhmat refused to advance at Vovchansk. Probably MRR “Akhmat North.” The tank regiment is newly formed.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1807132768830202332?s=46&t=bAqHDMQhVl3Aw3fKGHikqg<\/a><\/p>\n

Is it then the blocking units that are shooting to death the former Akhmat blocking unit that would now participate in offensive operations, or are they exempt from blocking unit punishment because they were a former blocking unit?<\/p>\n

Ukraine has, if not achieved air superiority at the northern front, at least parity with the Russians because UA air force is now actively up at the northern front and dropping JDAMS on Russian staffs.
\nThis is a landslide because this should be the Russians’ ground zero for air defense but Ukraine’s elite air force can thus strike unhindered against targets inside Russia \u2013 take that.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/euan_macdonald\/status\/1807030044386120155?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

First with the latest about the last puzzle piece needed was Maxo who yesterday announced that F-16 has carried out its first combat mission in Ukraine. If that (highly unconfirmed) rumor is true (but Maxo has the scoop as an old Cold War spy), it probably won’t be possible to keep it secret long before it breaks the internet. It is also the last puzzle piece that was missing. After that, Ukraine has all the capability it can acquire even though more aircraft naturally would have been preferable.<\/p>\n

Poland, by the way, got Apache Ahkp after 8 months of training \u2013 Zelensky asked for them too about a year ago but was turned down. It must not go too well for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Yesterday we wrote about the Russian volunteer unit that got BTR chassis with a turret from Ukraine’s BT-4. We have seen BT-4 take out T72 earlier in the war and is thus a top modern vehicle. We have previously guessed that the +300 old BTRs Bulgaria sent would undergo this program.<\/p>\n

We rarely count on UA’s own production and this is a mod of the older models delivered and then some thousand or so splinter-protected vehicles have been captured by Ukraine and probably gone through this program. Not all get BT-4 turrets, it should be added, there is a plethora of new weapon stations from many different companies all over Europe.<\/p>\n

And here is an example of all the deliveries we never hear anything about \u2013 600 splinter protection kits from the UK private initiative.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1807090021834334241<\/a><\/p>\n

Here is the newly formed 100th mech, or it was transformed from a home guard unit into a mechanized brigade. The unit has received German Marders.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/deaidua\/status\/1807001507306324424?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

For a newly formed mech brigade to get Marder vehicles, more battle-hardened brigades, and there are many, have presumably already been resourced?<\/p>\n

The same applies to the Russian volunteer unit \u2013 they should not be highest on the list.<\/p>\n

I am of the opinion that Ukraine through remo of older vehicles, the 12,000 splinter protections and tanks, own production, servicing previously damaged vehicles and such we do not know about (and there is much) as well as new contracts now has a considerable amount of splinter protection and armor.<\/p>\n

UA produces, for example, M113 and Maxpro under license now.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1806580717150761376?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

In defense, UA is always at a severe disadvantage and since autumn 2023 there has been opportunity to rest, add personnel and re-equip many of the maneuver brigades.<\/p>\n

For example, UA was supposed to get 300 tanks from Morocco and Kuwait?
\nThen I only understood during 2024 that much of what was promised in January 2023 did not arrive on time, but it has come now.<\/p>\n

And in Ukraine’s loss figures from Oryx, which are low, damaged vehicles are included that presumably have now undergone annual service and inspection and can be driven on public roads again?<\/p>\n

I believe Ukraine learned in 2023, so this year they keep quiet, but if you piece it together, it\u2019s an enormous amount of armor and tanks they now have deployed, whatever they need all of them for\u2026
\nNot to mention the artillery \u2013 80 Cesars, lots of other artillery, newly acquired artillery, and their own Bohdanas which they are producing 8 of per month.<\/p>\n

The group counting armor believes there are 5,500 left in the Russian bases.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jonpy99\/status\/1787571470274531779?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\n1,000 are MTLBs and if I may guess, a couple of thousand older BMPs and BTRs but I have no evidence for that.
\nRU has lost 577 so far in June 2024.
\nThat\u2019s how it looks and the bases are basically empty, but of course deployed equipment comes on top of that.<\/p>\n

I started this after the EU election and have refined it until I think it shouldn\u2019t cause ill feelings \u2013 I find it interesting what gets coverage in the media or not and how elected officials on both sides, in government or opposition, can get away with outright lies without being questioned by journalists. It\u2019s the easiest thing in the world to take a prime minister\u2019s or opposition leader\u2019s statement and check what they said 1-2 years ago and ask some tricky follow-up questions.
\nIn this EU election campaign, everyone lied blatantly without opposition and pulled out any rabbits from the hat.<\/p>\n

This was then taken to the extreme with Trump who was basically proven to lie about everything he said in the debate with Biden. Or Nigel Farage who recycles all the arguments after having pushed through BREXIT that the British now hate \u2013 how can he get a single vote?
\nWhen everything is subjective and anything can be true, nothing is interesting anymore. No one is held accountable for the policies they have pursued no matter how bad they have been, new year new promises and nothing is kept.<\/p>\n

However, what has not caused a media storm in Sweden but has flown by in the feed the last few months \u2013
\n-Jens Nylander\u2019s revelations about what I consider high corruption in the public sector.
\n-The Economic Crime Authority\u2019s report that hundreds of billions disappear in fraud every year.
\n-Chat Control 2.0, and that politicians and security-classified persons should be exempt.
\n-The black swan from Denmark and the classified police report on system-threatening crime that leaked, which is related to point two above from the Economic Crime Authority.<\/p>\n

But at the same time, we don\u2019t have funds for defense, for schools, for healthcare \u2013 and especially not for Ukraine.
\nBecause when it comes to Ukraine and support there, or our defense \u2013 then everyone gets picky like auditors \u2013 while they simultaneously ignore an open tap at the other end.<\/p>\n

But for a few billion more to Ukraine, it\u2019s a knife fight and all media slavishly report every single krona, or those 3% to NATO that would make us insolvent.<\/p>\n

These are, to say the least, strange times right now, or maybe one is just getting older and more tired. For some reason I don\u2019t understand, the NATO issue, support for Ukraine, rearmament, and defense cut through everything and suddenly a media machine starts up that seems to have been constantly asleep on the job. After all, it requires established media to broadly push an issue for politicians to wake up and act on it, and they seem to have a very special focus on absolutely not increasing our ability to defend ourselves but gladly ignoring things that should be important to the citizens of Sweden.<\/p>\n

Now the thread came to the point that North Korea would not send troops to Ukraine but how does a certain king\u2019s post from yesterday fit into this?
\nIs South Korea wrong or is the thread wrong?
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/maks23.bsky.social\/post\/3kw3hbm7txs23<\/a><\/p>\n

As soon as Putin went there, I thought he was after soldiers because otherwise he wouldn\u2019t have gone himself.
\nThen I guessed it was blocking units, we\u2019ll see.
\n\u201cEngineer units\u201d sounds strange anyway, what would RU need \u201cengineer units\u201d for?<\/p>\n

Now we have a partial explanation for UA\u2019s focus on the war industry \u2013 they are targeting chemical factories that produce components for ammunition and missiles.
\nDo you remember when they knocked out the factory that made gearboxes for BMP and T90?
\nIt\u2019s enough that a product can only be 98% finished for it never to reach the market, smart of Ukraine.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/trenttelenko\/status\/1807222953131565209?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Anecdotally, RU is starting to run out of missiles for the S300 so nothing to jump on (yet).
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1807321806182719718?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The Lukashenko Game comes as RU worries about a UA offensive into Belarus, and at the same time some suggest that Belarus should attack UA (now finally). We must conclude that Belarus is up for discussion again after a long silence at least regarding whatever is planned, if anything is planned.
\nJust like with the Kharkiv offensive that was never supposed to come, something in Belarus is never supposed to come either but it would be a hell of a diversion if UA sent in all the Belarusian volunteer units, if they get to\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kw4yaxhx7r27<\/a><\/p>\n

Highly anecdotal but it would be fun if the thread\u2019s prediction comes true \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/Heroiam_Slava\/status\/1807047294698569944<\/a><\/p>\n

+4,000 Russian officers have fallen and the number of wounded we can only guess is many.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/joni_askola\/status\/1807035670889738290?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And here you have more complaints from the 27th MRD at Avdiivka \u2013 it doesn\u2019t seem to be going very well for them there?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/moklasen\/status\/1807111905246400655<\/a><\/p>\n

Then Ukraine has started offensive operations on the northern front which right now looks quite exciting as they have managed to penetrate deeply into prepared defensive lines in the Kreminna forests and have the Donets as flank protection.
\nI\u2019m looking for reports about UA mechanized units north of the border on the northern front or amphibious operations on the southern front because that would signal an increased level of ambition and that a window for broader offensive operations has opened \u2013 we\u2019ll see. This is with existing units and there are no reports on where the strategic offensive reserve is and it can appear anywhere with less than a week\u2019s notice.<\/p>\n

Hard not to write -positive -positive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Sorry \u2013 the last paragraph \u201cthen Ukraine has started offensive operations on northern Luhansk\u201d is what it should naturally say \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:43 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Thanks!<\/p>\n

Regarding North Korea, it just came out that they haven\u2019t said anything about sending troops, but they also haven\u2019t said anything about not sending troops, so the likelihood that they actually send troops is just as high as before the false news was denied.
\nI think it\u2019s only a matter of time before they show up.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:40 \u2013 Johan No.1 More lionesses from the world’s second most equal country after I..el. https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1807110717935415482?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w This description of our 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