{"id":9296,"date":"2024-07-01T11:21:24","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T09:21:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-07-01-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T11:51:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T09:51:04","slug":"2024-07-01-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-07-01-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-07-01"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The 17th Tank Brigade has now arrived to defend the northern front, which is the most offensive unit category Ukraine has \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

The next 10 days will be bright sunshine and 30 degrees Celsius in Ukraine, summer is here \ud83e\udd29
\nAccording to our previous guess, there will be an acute water shortage among Russian soldiers because their supply chain is broken.<\/p>\n

According to highly anecdotal posts, Russians are already surrendering from thirst. It also helps, of course, that they drink alcohol which is a diuretic, but that\u2019s in their DNA and not really something they can be blamed for.
\nI sincerely hope Ukraine gets a long-lasting high pressure with around 30 degrees that lasts through July and August \u2013 a real midsummer because RU should have a hard time handling that this year.<\/p>\n

If there are 700,000 in Ukraine who are supposed to have what, 3 liters of water per day or something, that\u2019s a hell of a lot of water to distribute.
\nAfter the dam at Khakovka was blown up, the entire southern front is dry and there are bodies everywhere in that river.
\nWe already saw in the spring how they filled water bottles from puddles and considering all the bodies they leave everywhere, we guessed the water was poisoned. A perfect combo simply \u2013 drunk Russians who in blazing sun and 30-degree heat drink water from puddles with Russian corpses in them \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Monthly report and record profits in Russia Inc., I couldn\u2019t help myself the other day but LV is the second highest and artillery the highest ever with a total of 1415 knocked-out barrels \ud83d\ude32
\nBarbarians were the second highest ever with 35,000 KWIA and Special the highest in the entire war, and soft vehicles were the second highest.
\nOverall, it\u2019s probably the bloodiest month in 2.5 years of war for Russia, and the curve has been rising since sometime last fall. Putin is given no room at all to recover here, which he desperately needs. That\u2019s also why he is now floating peace proposals and firing half the MoD. If he doesn\u2019t get a ceasefire and everything goes south, he will blame the military\u2019s incompetence.<\/p>\n

And if Ukraine really gets going with offensive operations, RU losses will continue to run wild. UA has consistently shown that during offensives they take fewer losses than RU, so there\u2019s no risk of Ukraine running out of steam first.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lot simmering now \u2013
\n-rumors about Belarus after a long silence either that UA will enter or that Belarus will attack southwards.
\n-the fleet in Azov is there bobbing, untouched for weeks\u2026
\n-rumors about North Koreans coming (latest estimate is 100,000) and evidence of female RU prison inmates in penal battalions (I don\u2019t value that at all except that the Russian army so far hasn\u2019t recruited female Storm Z, they are absolutely just as good at dying pointlessly as the men).
\n-Putin on a forgiveness trip to Vietnam and North Korea, but not to China.
\n-a plane from RU to Russia, and the US admits they have dialogue with the new defense minister.
\n-half the MoD was fired in RU in a corruption scandal.
\n-Azov is taking ground very fast in the Kreminna forests.
\n-UA has a 3:1 numerical advantage at the northern front and RU attacks in that area are going absolutely terribly.
\n-rumors about F-16s in Ukraine
\n-confirmed JDAMS strikes on the Russian side of the northern front.
\n-continued drone armageddon in the nearby Russian oblasts.
\n-continued strategic strikes on deep targets in Russia and now serial production of long-range drones.
\n-calls for help from several front sections that Ukraine\u2019s artillery fire has increased exponentially.
\n-the last push by UA to strike RU airfields inside Russia.
\n-media is starting to seriously write about Russian sabotage in the EU now. Everyone probably remembers the famous \u201cforgotten wrench\u201d in 2023 when half of Europe\u2019s nuclear power had technical faults.<\/p>\n

I see absolutely nothing going well for Russia except all the election interference and how Trump, Farage, and Le Pen are gaining ground.
\nFarage usually gets at least half a million likes on a tweet which gives high spread, and in the US election one should probably not underestimate the Russian influence operation in favor of Trump, it\u2019s easy to forget that it\u2019s buzzing in the background. If there\u2019s one thing the Russians are good at, it\u2019s exactly this. They won the election for Trump in 2016 and are trying to do it again.<\/p>\n

Russia is thus at war with the West \u2013 they carry out sabotage throughout the EU and are actively interfering in all elections. We wrote about how France a few months after Macron went hard against Putin has been thrown into chaos and reasoned whether it was one of Putin\u2019s threats \u2013 yes you can oppose me but then you get domestic political hell.<\/p>\n

Here we have something exciting, the oil companies that man the oil rigs have logged enormous Russian activity around all the underwater cables in the North Sea and the suspicion is that they are all now mined.
\nBut the US and Germany\u2019s strategy not to escalate is smart?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/rshereme\/status\/1807433226975117795?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/Gerashchenko_en\/status\/1807332507634831720<\/a><\/p>\n

Now Putin will also arm the Houthi rebels but good that the US and Germany are not escalating. I might think Putin is escalating quite well all on his own.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1807444700342653340?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Today there will be extrapolation, speculation, and no domestic politics because that just makes you tearful.
\nThe Black Sea Fleet, or part of it, is in the Sea of Azov, the same Sea of Azov where the ferries were attacked and just east of the world\u2019s currently most bombed peninsula.
\nThis has fallen a bit into oblivion but the Black Sea Fleet was a priority target so why is it allowed to bob around within range of all UA long-range weapons for several weeks?<\/p>\n

One theory could be that Ukraine is letting RU prepare their evacuation of Crimea because they have read Sun Tzu?
\nThen UA will at the right time announce that everything not evacuated within two weeks will be sunk, blown up, or otherwise rendered unusable including the Kerch Bridge.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s no secret that Ukraine has trained extensively in amphibious operations or that the 76th GAAD is an offensive reserve behind the Dnipro.
\nIt\u2019s also no secret that Ukraine projects a threat at the northern front and that they usually increase pressure in several places.<\/p>\n

If you remember the big campaign plan, the diversion at the Dnipro was to go like this: battalion-sized units crossed and took positions in communities on the left bank under their own artillery umbrella so the special forces couldn\u2019t reach them.
\nThis was before the drone weapon, F-16, JDAMS, and ATACMS, and before SB90.<\/p>\n

With ATACMS, the drone weapon, and JDAMS, they will carry out a pre-attack bombardment and then land on the left bank at suitable places where they can go on defense and then it\u2019s probably expected that RU will do the same old trick as the year before and throw in special forces until they are exhausted.
\nAnd then they will be shot away with all the new fun indirect capabilities they have when they are up and moving on the highway \u2013 Kuwait Highway 2.0.<\/p>\n

The conditions for this to go very well are sky-high better than 2023.
\nUA has drone superiority at the Dnipro through good EW and EW-resistant own drones, anti-drones, and generally better drone weapons than RU.
\nThat RU hasn\u2019t been able to push back the marines at Krunky is somewhat sensational so when there are 10-15 Krunky it will probably be unmanageable.<\/p>\n

Once that is done, the Surovikin line is broken through and all RU can do is throw everything they have at these wagon forts and hope for the best, which they will do, which will weaken other front sections on the southern front \u2013 Welcome UA Strategic Offensive Reserve to the chat.<\/p>\n

RU will lose columns of vehicles again on the highway because they have no other option than to try to strike the landings.
\nThis part of the grand campaign plan still holds, or better than in 2023.
\nAfter that, the land bridge to Crimea is plugged and RU should then, according to the above theory, be allowed to retreat and leave Crimea.<\/p>\n

Is that enough?
\nI want to believe it is enough because it is the broad stroke that shows Putin will lose the war over time \u2013 he can no longer maintain the illusion that he is waging a war and is not just a hunted deer that has run straight into the hunting party and stands there with clipped goat eyes.<\/p>\n

The northern front is almost even better but since I am not completely lost, I understand that the West still has a say when it comes to the invasion of Russia.<\/p>\n

That UA lost a couple of HMMWVs during the 2023 invasion apparently caused big protests from the West. What we called yellow cards.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1803988580794036600?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Militaryland is always fun to check out and see how UA units have increased now when they are supposed to have material shortages and personnel shortages according to everyone.
\nhttps:\/\/militaryland.net\/ukraine\/<\/a>
\nUA has thus
\n-40 mech brigades,
\n-19 artillery brigades,
\n-11 reconnaissance battalions,
\n-15 airborne brigades,
\n-10 NG brigades,
\n-11 “offensive guard” brigades,
\n-6 tank brigades, many other brigades
\n\u2013 a veritable forest of SOF in all branches that must be absolutely enormous.
\n-30 Territorial defense brigades
\n-10 infantry brigades
\n-10 motorized, assault and jaeger brigades.
\n-10 brigades in the marine corps
\n-the two elite brigades from NG, presumably.
\n-plus some others.
\nUA is up to around 150 brigades, a bunch of other brigades, a forest of battalion-sized units and an ENORMOUS amount of SOF<\/p>\n

And most of UA’s maneuver brigades are now mechanized \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

They have mobilized what they needed for 2024 according to their own statement and have been training and maintaining since last fall. And the West has quietly sent endless trains with ballistic protection to Ukraine since January 2024 \u2013 all posted in the thread by someone.<\/p>\n

Last time I did this check in 2023 they had about 100 brigades so they have increased by 50% in the middle of an ongoing war and according to many during a period when they supposedly had a screaming shortage of personnel \u2013 which they do not.
\nThese brigades are part of a functioning, trimmed command structure and operate as cohesive units. They are enormously more developed since the start of the war compared to the home guard units that were then dropped off in a town and had to defend it as best they could without upward contact and with half-bad equipment.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has built a mechanized colossus on tracks while Russia is becoming more and more like a home guard army with personal weapons and the mess tin on an orange string.<\/p>\n

Putin knows exactly what awaits if he cannot force the West to hold back Ukraine, which the West will not do this time (let us sincerely hope).<\/p>\n

F-16 was the last of the capabilities Ukraine was promised and now we are waiting for the FAB bombers to be taken out.<\/p>\n

WARNING and possibly breaking the rules so best if no one clicks (seriously this time), but for the historical archive I thought I\u2019d post proof of a female RU soldier. They have had fun with tape so the face is actually masked but if you don\u2019t want to see a female prisoner of war with a taped face don\u2019t click. The rumor was true then. Otherwise correct treatment as we always see with RU prisoners of war.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gloooud\/status\/1807396495148155307?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then we have all these reports about wounded being sent back to units after amputation and other serious injuries \u2013 yes quantity is a quality in itself but only if they can walk on their own, right?
\nIf you hobble forward without feet the value of quantity is not very great, pretty sure Stalin meant that feet were not amputated so that quantity would be qualitative.<\/p>\n

I have absolutely no opinion on women being mobilized, they die just as well as the Russian men in the penal battalions.
\nI stand by that the forcibly mobilized Russians are probably the ones having it worst in this whole war \u2013 it must be absolutely terrible when the most attractive solution is to commit suicide \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

This one from Lynx yesterday was exciting, UA had 3000 T64 tank hulls in various conditions in storage and probably have quietly completed tanks throughout the war.
\nThis is partly supported by the fact that it is mostly ballistic protection they have received during 2024 and not Strv, but that is also because the role of the tank now is 4km sniper and not battering ram.
\nhttps:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/davidaxe\/2024\/06\/23\/ukraine-isnt-anywhere-close-to-running-out-of-t-64-tanks\/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2EERGGdok9GSpn1EmKYggFMAxZQ3eQ7XsO_qHbiRMjQ6vwRQTnIIi5DZo_aem_7LqFWbl6ByK4qjlMtNdt6A<\/a><\/p>\n

There is a discussion that I apparently hedge all the time but I think when it comes to the 2024 offensive I have stuck my neck out quite far at least?<\/p>\n

The collective opinion elite does not believe in an offensive before 2025 and I stand quite alone on the other side with my “Mech Offensive 2024” \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The tip of the spear air force is more than fashionably late and the turns have been at least strange but this is the last puzzle piece in place and offensive operations up in Kreminna signal intent I think. We have repeatedly guessed that F-16 would be the critical line.<\/p>\n

Either I am right or I am wrong and I probably rang the bell already in January that we would see offensive and mech combat this year because I thought it was quite obvious?<\/p>\n

The Kreminna forests are Azov with image intensifiers and sharpened bayonets so still a way to go to mech combat.
\nBy the way, Azov has learned from the units at Bakhmut how to clear trenches and fight in the same way as we saw in those videos.<\/p>\n

I have the impression that Ukraine made some land grab a bit south of there near Bilohorivka but that is probably wrong, was something that flew by that I didn\u2019t save.<\/p>\n

The accent man is at least quite positive in his post, and a small mechanized platoon-sized attack at the end.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/06S2UVVy7_A?si=oA4dTa_f-gOd1Qkh<\/a><\/p>\n

When we say that F-16 is the last puzzle piece it is a bit misleading because it is the FAB bombers that are the piece. Zelensky has now increased the pressure to 100 and it is only a matter of time before they are taken out.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kw7gfsv7nd2z<\/a><\/p>\n

Apparently 800 were dropped last week and they are the ones effectively preventing larger movements right now and as soon as they are neutralized it is unlocked.<\/p>\n

It is a better joke that 100 planes are neatly lined up at airbases in Russia just outside the allowed distance of 100km that Ukraine can use Western weapons against. The living buried Ukrainian soldiers are not laughing.<\/p>\n

This one was exciting, Russian coal industry down 93%.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1807002376445759961?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine has the advantage in drones.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/michael_mct1\/status\/1806630421943222729?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Victory is coming \u270a
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1807040628330508677?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I thought Cambridge Analytica and that they heavily manipulated FB contributed to his victory along with all the crap that came out about Clinton before the election which could probably be traced to a Romanian with Russian connections?
\nBut yes, I don\u2019t have particularly good knowledge about that actually so thanks for the clarification \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

There is some antique wandering around in the thread claiming that I am immune to criticism but I am not.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:39 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:33 \u2013 Johan No.1 The 17th Tank Brigade has now arrived to defend the northern front, which is the most 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