{"id":9314,"date":"2024-07-09T10:30:01","date_gmt":"2024-07-09T08:30:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-07-09-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T11:55:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T09:55:39","slug":"2024-07-09-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-07-09-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-07-09"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Orban has managed to visit Putin, China, and take Turkey’s side in the Cyprus issue during the first week of Hungary’s presidency. Yes, there were sour tweets from the EU heads of government, but he continues to spin around as he pleases.<\/p>\n

He has also explained to anyone who wants to listen that Russia cannot lose this war.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/bricsinfo\/status\/1810327814991946064?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Russia is also the presiding country in the UN Security Council, and to my knowledge, there is no revolution underway at the UN.<\/p>\n

I’m starting to despair a little \u2013 does the West have any limits at all because this is slowly starting to become normalized now.<\/p>\n

India is shaking hands with the war criminal on the same day hospitals are bombed
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/olgatokariuk\/status\/1810430012610514955?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/bricsinfo\/status\/1810377068485685509?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Where is the world’s outcry after Russia bombed three hospitals?<\/p>\n

When H..as themselves launched a rocket at a parking lot near a hospital, everyone screamed in unison.<\/p>\n

We are dangerously close to apathy here, it feels like, and Ukraine still has not been allowed to fight on equal terms.<\/p>\n

Lots of new faces are taking Russia’s side; SVT, Bert Karlsson, and Leif Bork, but also Victor Pressfeldt wants to reason about why it perhaps was not intentional to bomb the hospitals.<\/p>\n

Someone should tell him that it was three hospitals that were bombed. And above all \u2013 damn, what a fuss there was about the hospital parking lot in G..a when H..as’s own rocket landed there.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwtoyhmlr725<\/a><\/p>\n

It has not escaped me that Putin is starting to look self-satisfied again \u2013 he feels he has the wind in his sails, has gotten a bit of color in his face, and is sitting upright.<\/p>\n

And the US just wants to confirm again for the thousandth time just so no one misunderstands that even though hospitals are bombed, Ukraine is not allowed to shoot their weapons deep into Russia \ud83d\ude21
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwtp6kwpuj27<\/a><\/p>\n

This is all shades of really bad. Above all, the US is not following an escalation ladder at all as some claim because taking out air bases has been diplomatically and politically unlocked for a long time. They are holding back for a reason.<\/p>\n

Without speculating, I want to point out that if the war in Ukraine is not decided, we will move towards a bigger war \u2013 that’s how it will look, and we are heading there at full speed.<\/p>\n

There is a lot happening right now, and the more submissive the West is, the more will happen because that’s how it works in real life.<\/p>\n

If the consequences of blowing up hospitals full of children were zero and nothing, Russia moves on to the next target.<\/p>\n

If you think Orban is burning his country by following Putin down into the depths, that’s probably wrong \u2013 Putin is a mission, but Orban’s end game is China and to have a very good relationship with that country in the future. He has visited China and Xi Jinping has visited him.
\nJust like with Belarus, Hungary is prime target for China as it is in the heart (well) of Europe.<\/p>\n

Then maybe I should clarify about the Baltic states that it is not the terrain they are after and not necessarily all three \u2013 a successful attack into one of the countries that is then occupied is enough to create the situation that Putin (perhaps) seeks \u2013 to force NATO to either act and retake the country or remain passive. To challenge NATO and test the cards.<\/p>\n

If one is to guess (if it comes) the battle will take place inside Lithuania while Estonia and maybe Latvia are overrun. And then NATO faces a fait accompli with 1\/3 or 2\/3 occupied and must decide whether to RETAKE Estonia and Latvia with heavy losses.<\/p>\n

Balt-attack 24 is more of a speculative scenario that definitely has an end date, that should be emphasized, but right now it is Orban who is president of the EU, the US election is in November, and Russia has the presidency gavel in the UN Security Council \u2013 many opportunities to delay a response to aggression.<\/p>\n

Also note that the Baltic states’ Maginot line is only to be started next year 2025 \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1810401363286757658?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

But that China has just jumped out of the Trojan horse and is newly awake, swinging the samurai sword in our backyard, I do not think is speculative at all.
\nThe first sign was when Xi Jinping visited France, Hungary, and Serbia but not Russia. At the same time Russia had an important date.
\nhttps:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/5\/10\/key-takeaways-from-xi-jinpings-european-tour-to-france-serbia-and-hungary<\/a><\/p>\n

Robert Fico was a bit hindered a while ago but as soon as he recovers from the cold, he is on his way to China.
\nhttps:\/\/www.politico.eu\/newsletter\/china-watcher\/china-rebuilds-ties-with-central-europe\/<\/a><\/p>\n

China has historically only cared about trade, but you can be completely sure that they are not interested in trade with Serbia or Hungary \u2013 it is the strategic position in the EU that is interesting.
\nAnd that Xi Jinping did not visit Germany, the UK, Spain, or any other powerhouse during his visit also speaks volumes, I think.
\nOr the base in Cuba, because none of that improves trade relations with the big countries in the West \u2013 rather the opposite.<\/p>\n

But these are smart strategic moves for China, and to take these steps, China must reasonably feel confident enough?
\nCyprus has long been a gateway for oligarch money into the EU, and countries like Portugal have had golden visas so all kinds of villains with money can get in, not to mention Malta.
\nLondongrad is called that for a reason.<\/p>\n

That China would establish itself in Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Belarus is in no way sensational, the only thing that surprises me is that they did not find a country with a port.<\/p>\n

Makes me suspect that they are looking for a country with a port, maybe it will be North Africa or Syria?<\/p>\n

China has remained passive throughout the war and has not actively supported RU with offensive weapons as the West has done with Ukraine. Forget international law here and see that there are two sides. By Chinese standards, they have been cautious to see how the war would proceed. China is well aware of the West’s violent capital but, like we have done with Russia, has had to guess some things. Now China has seen that the West is passive with G\u2026a, Houti, and Ukraine and probably felt they could advance their positions.<\/p>\n

If RU were in full retreat now, this would never have happened \u2013 want to make that point.<\/p>\n

Then maybe you remember that I\u2026el found Chinese weapons and evidence that China built the tunnels in G\u2026a \u2013 I actually did not think they were involved, and that signaled to me higher intentions than I thought.
\nNow we have seen another card from China and it is worrying, the first two were positive.<\/p>\n

Never forget that China has an economic atomic bomb to fire \u2013 they own wind turbines in the West, they own companies in the West, they own critical infrastructure and many other things they have infiltrated. If that weapon is fired, it could get enormously messy.
\nWhat I was waiting for was China\u2019s next card and troop in Belarus (and base in Cuba) was this next card \u2013 and it doesn\u2019t look good.<\/p>\n

Since I have worked half my working life with Chinese people, I am now googling what Quisling is called in Chinese and I am taking off my reddest tie.<\/p>\n

The reason I suspect Ukraine has asked Poland to harvest the air defense over western Ukraine is because the F-16s are being held back so much that they have to free up resources from their own air defense for this to work.
\nIn this context, it is quite unfortunate that Gripen was delayed but it is what it is.<\/p>\n

On the battlefield, it looks like this \u2013 in 2023 Ukraine would have had a chance if they had been allowed to go straight up the northern front and Belarus, had F-16s and LV and if all support packages had been delivered.
\nNow they were forced to attack where Russian fortifications were strongest and they had a lot of equipment and could not deny AHKP and air access to the fronts.<\/p>\n

For almost a year, the West stopped sending ammunition which led to fire production being almost completely knocked out and weapons have taken their time to deliver.<\/p>\n

For a long time, the West wanted to stop Ukraine from knocking out the refineries and whenever something started going too well, the West put a stop to it \u2013 oil depots, the naval war (right at the beginning), the invasion of Russia, knocking out the VDV at Kherson and a few more.<\/p>\n

This will damn well go down in history as the biggest miscalculation ever, worse than the French Maginot Line or leaving Lindisfarne unguarded \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n

I, who am positive, seriously believe that Ukraine has a big blow ready to deliver as soon as everything is in place but what if they don\u2019t?<\/p>\n

What if China gets to reinforce in Belarus, what if China suddenly is a \u201cpeacekeeping force\u201d at the northern front, a self-appointed UN mission.<\/p>\n

Then Ukraine must break through the Surovikin line or the ATO lines instead \u2013 will they manage that?<\/p>\n

Sooner or later Chinese missiles and drones will arrive and then it won\u2019t be a few hundred but tens of thousands.
\nRussian terror bombing can again reach up to 100 in one operation.<\/p>\n

The Ukraine war is dangerously close to becoming secondary here which is unfortunate, it will be interesting to see how the global escalation looks until Christmas because the situation with the US election and Orban as well as the chairmanship gavel and the UN Security Council will not return for a while \u2013 window of opportunity.<\/p>\n

The West\u2019s experts and advisors should be paraded in tar and feathers.
\nAnd how the West has not been able to tackle Russian subversive activities yet is a mystery.
\nOr allowed China to buy up everything they have done \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n

To me, it now looks like Russia wants to force a reaction from the West and the weaker Ukraine becomes, the greater the likelihood of that. Instead of Ukraine completely on its own beating Russia.<\/p>\n

Winter 2023 the northern front was guarded by a few dozen FSB, it makes you completely tearful.<\/p>\n

The big breakthrough at New York came after another tunnel crawl, it has already been discussed so it was not with superior mechanized combat they took ground there.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1810406308903862425?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

But while the West gives everything away to rogue states, Ukraine\u2019s strategic bombing campaign continues, oil depots are now being targeted in quick succession.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1810521627010249085?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And ammunition depots, fuel depots and bases are also being targeted and it is Armageddon in nearby oblasts, daily.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1810417727347073114?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

All this aims to create a window of ammunition shortage and fuel shortage at the fronts. Do you remember the mother depot in the darkest Donbass 2023 that Ukraine got wind of so there was no artillery shelling of Bakhmut for a few months after that \u2013 such lucky hits leave such a big mark.<\/p>\n

Or the big depot behind the southern front that was guarded by Kadyrovites who disappeared in a big puff of smoke \u2013 there was ammunition shortage at the southern front after that just in time for the spring offensive.<\/p>\n

After a few months the Russians have gotten maintenance back in order again.<\/p>\n

The same with the fires at Kherson, you can burn away the hole-Russians once and then when they are back
\nIt actually looks like they are creating a Russian low point and then it should be followed by offensive operations.
\nJanuary \u2013 May it was mostly refineries they targeted and then there were increasing operations against oil depots, which have now completely taken over and then ammunition depots were added to the excel sheet. A pretty clear pattern, I think.<\/p>\n

Landsbergis is right, the rogue states are advancing because we look weak.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/glandsbergis\/status\/1810332102073974869?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Now Ukraine has asked for a submarine \ud83e\udd23
\nLet\u2019s hope it will be in the Baltic Sea it will roam around, maybe a sea serpent?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1810375684109500849?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

During 2022 we had many discussions about this and that Poland would take full surveillance at the border with Belarus, that the West would have manned LV in western Ukraine (the Dnieper formed the border) and then take care of air protection so Ukraine could free up enough units and capability \u2013 nothing happened.<\/p>\n

Rumors go that Poland has been held back the whole war, who knows. They will probably give their elite air force anyway if no NATO air comes and with a bit of luck they will shoot down all missiles west of the Dnieper.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Some breaking news, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner have Russian connections and take Russian money.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwtuh2w65j22<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:11 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks!
\nYes, there is a risk that everything will become significantly worse if we do not reach a conclusion within a year.
\nThe hope lies in the fact that the Russians\u2019 low point will come soon and be deep.
\nIf not this year, then at least next spring.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:17 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Not surprised\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:07 \u2013 Johan No.1 Orban has managed to visit Putin, China, and take Turkey’s side in the Cyprus issue during 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