{"id":9316,"date":"2024-07-10T09:54:34","date_gmt":"2024-07-10T07:54:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-07-10-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T11:56:50","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T09:56:50","slug":"2024-07-10-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-07-10-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-07-10"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1810315636980998465?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I had a really sour post in the works but then came news of 20 F-16s from the USA within a few days, so quite a lot was edited out in the joy frenzy.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvsi43pvn2f<\/a><\/p>\n

And then Accentmannen confirms what we have discussed a lot, that it is Armageddon on the northern front.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/mz43kxURnGo?si=y8lieuZS704BOkXZ<\/a><\/p>\n

And that lowered my blood pressure after hearing Sullivan being very clear about why they are holding back Ukraine (you almost have to look hard for a worse misconception, Reagan is spinning in his grave) \ud83d\ude21
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvz5y4ytq2k<\/a><\/p>\n

I think we see an enormously higher level of UA warfare now in 2024 where they lay a carpet of death over rear functions and take out huge amounts on highways. Much of this probably also does not appear in the daily loss lists \u2013 all the mines they hear exploding in the forests at night, for example, as Accentmannen describes.<\/p>\n

Someone said that we always become pessimistic just before it turns, so let’s hope for that \u2013 the NATO meeting will give a clear indication of what the West has managed to agree on, so very interesting. Last time it happened in 2023, Zelensky was called ungrateful and told to keep quiet, so it probably won’t get worse than that, and Zelensky seems to be pushing for them to be allowed to strike airbases very hard.<\/p>\n

Seems to be a company of Chinese SOF in Belarus?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1810597071998558619?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Japan and South Korea are starting to get seriously worried.
\nhttps:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/07\/09\/japan-and-the-philippines-sign-landmark-defense-deal-to-counter-china-.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Belarus has had many military exercises and this latest one is with “territorial,” so it is the home guard training on the border with the Baltic states, which should mean they are training everything else as well.
\nhttps:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/belarus-conducts-military-drills-near-ukraine-eu-border\/a-68716108<\/a><\/p>\n

Here were Belarus’s large exercises in 2023 and even then Wagner instructors were present.
\nhttps:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/aug\/07\/tensions-rise-as-belarus-begins-military-drills-near-poland-and-lithuania<\/a><\/p>\n

Their “anti-terrorist defense exercise” this year is called “Falcon Assault” and practices river crossings \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china-belarus-start-joint-military-drills-near-polish-border-2024-07-09\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Russia is NOT the whole conflict, they are a stepwise escalation that takes us to the next step, and the next, I have read that in Pearson’s book.<\/p>\n

Forcing NATO to choose between retaking, for example, Estonia or remaining passive is probably on Putin’s to-do list when the time is right.<\/p>\n

If you go by Pearson’s book, I..el will be run over. I don’t think their defense forces will adjust quickly enough to the drone weapon and better missile weapons so that some of their advantage they have had until now is eroded. But if there is a country that has looked into the abyss and risen every fifteen years, it is damn well I..el.
\nIraq has started to get involved in the fight against I..el by the way, or rebel groups in the country that the Iraqi government can do nothing about.
\nhttps:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/irans-allies-iraq-are-firing-israel-what-if-they-draw-blood-2024-06-04\/<\/a><\/p>\n

What the West needs now is for Ukraine to break Putin’s back so the whole BRIICS sees it without any misinterpretation \u2013 a broadside.<\/p>\n

We haven’t really been able to position India yet but Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow with extra everything says quite a bit \u2013 when was he last in the USA or EU?<\/p>\n

Or China’s visits to Serbia, Hungary, and France \u2013 are those the EU’s largest countries for Chinese exports?<\/p>\n

BRIICS is by definition the other side now and has China, Russia, and India on its side. They currently consist of 10 countries (right?) and about 40 more are on the list to join.
\nUAE, for example, has bought into many companies in the West and is now part of BRIICS.
\nhttps:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/are-middle-east-investments-in-the-west-a-threat\/a-66773511<\/a><\/p>\n

My thought has always been that the West now must prove to be a more attractive alternative and fish for strategic partners worldwide, but that doesn’t seem to be happening.<\/p>\n

Asia is organizing itself where Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia out of necessity work together, and the USA has a commitment regarding Taiwan that we hope they never let go of.<\/p>\n

Our eastern border must be reinforced and impenetrable, and then we must play hardball with Slovakia, Hungary, and Serbia \u2013 if they want to be with Russia, we can also encircle them or however it has been done before?<\/p>\n

It is unfortunate if the population in Belarus does not get its statutory freedom, and that would above all make our border against the Russian threat much more manageable.<\/p>\n

I also have another thought \u2013 I think individual countries should act more aggressively \u2013 if Poland wants to send Mig-29s and something more, they should do it. If France wants to send instructors, they should do it, if we want to send Gripen, we should do it. The USA’s strategy of holding back is NOT best for the EU in any way, and to me it is very clear that China just moved forward its positions against the EU. I think Sullivan’s reasoning above was downright frightening.<\/p>\n

If Putin is already at war with the EU, conducting sabotage, subversive activities, and otherwise trying to harm us maximally \u2013 can’t we act or do we have to wait for the snail USA to catch up?
\n– Station several brigades permanently in the Baltics this summer together with the land forces and air.
\n– Send more materiel to Ukraine \u2013 all production goes to them.
\n– Poland is slowly moving in and shooting down missiles over western Ukraine and keeps completely quiet about it.
\n– Let Ukraine invade the northern oblasts because this one is almost the worst of all the yellow cards \ud83d\ude10
\nThat would be a start at least?<\/p>\n

Wild speculations \u2013 so why was Fico almost murdered or Lukashenko always sick as soon as he is near Putin?
\nCould it be that Putin doesn’t like the proximity to China from these and tries to sabotage?
\nCould that be why Xi Jinping didn’t go to Russia but invited Putin to China, he doesn’t trust surviving another visit to Russia?<\/p>\n

Sat and pondered a bit about the country with a port and concluded that it might be Albania that China ties to itself but there are a couple of other candidates.
\nhttps:\/\/cepa.org\/comprehensive-reports\/chinese-influence-in-albania\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, as all the bad things spread in the West as we have discussed for a few days now, there is not much to report from the fronts. The hope is that it is the opsec cover that is interfering a bit \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

We will probably get a full statement from the NATO meeting tomorrow and we hope for some good news, 20 F-16s in a few days is welcome and I am quite sure Ukraine will soon be allowed to strike airbases beyond the 100km line because that is an impossible position for the USA to maintain.<\/p>\n

It is no secret that UA conducts front-line pre-emptive strikes at most fronts and that they actively target ammunition depots and fuel depots which causes shortages at the fronts over a time window.<\/p>\n

Here the focus is on military bases and depots in Astrakhan and also in nearby oblasts, they are now targeting the bases for buildup, the units for the next RU offensive are being trained and equipped.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1810617412275826999?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nThis is exactly what we talked a lot about, that if they could strike the 12 bases and all the airbases and depots inside Russian territory, they would quickly wipe out the maintenance and RU’s future offensive capability, and this has now begun, albeit on too small a scale because the USA is still troublesome.<\/p>\n

We have also seen a shift where the defensive battles have become more dynamic.<\/p>\n

Here you have a newly resourced brigade.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvy6xx5ly22<\/a><\/p>\n

And you do remember that Sweden was supposed to send hundreds of PBV302, so that adds material to a brigade.<\/p>\n

Spain is sending tanks soon with a second batch in September, then a brigade will get tanks as a battalion resource.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvycjctkz2l<\/a><\/p>\n

And now there are reports again about 155mm cluster ammunition (DPCIM?) so they have arrived from the USA again.<\/p>\n

We have discussed BPR, KPR, VPR and BPR2 before, meaning “people’s republics” in the northern Oblasts and that UA would copy RU’s demands for the liberation of Luhansk and Donetsk. UA themselves have discussed this earlier as well, so not just a happy thread speculating.
\nHere you have the governor of Belgorod People’s Republic.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1810752356524638325?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here you have the KGB in the 60s and how they came up with radicalization. Imagine the enormous reach they have today with social media and how entire groups are completely impossible to reason with. The Twitter purchase fits in well.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ockersm\/status\/1810623853720203566?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ivank Trump and Jarod Kushner are building a resort in Albania with Russian money and Kremlin contacts.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/olganyc1211\/status\/1810526108376309911?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Could it be true that China is considering investing in Ukraine? I have no idea and it is a Twitter rumor.
\nThe drones are confirmed, that we know.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1810530408393535609?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And now for some good news, we can remove 1000 T72s from the 3500 tanks left in stockpiles because they have autoloaders that are likely rusted through.
\nThat is why T62 and T55 are coming now, they have no autoloaders.
\nThere should be 700 left in stockpiles, curious if any of those were T72 \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvzkd7nbv2w<\/a><\/p>\n

Russia is definitely short on armor, as someone in the thread usually writes, and Ukraine can get thousands more.
\nProvided China does not resource Russia with offensive weapons, they are presumably now running critically low on most things.<\/p>\n

Still a bit annoyed with the West and especially Sullivan but it\u2019s looking brighter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1810315636980998465?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I had a really sour post in the works but then came news of 20 F-16s from the USA within a few days so quite a lot was edited out in the joy rush.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvsi43pvn2f<\/a><\/p>\n

And then Accentmannen confirms what we have discussed a lot, that it is Armageddon on the northern front.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/mz43kxURnGo?si=y8lieuZS704BOkXZ<\/a><\/p>\n

And that lowered my blood pressure after hearing Sullivan was very clear about why they are holding back Ukraine (you almost have to search hard for a worse misconception, Reagan is spinning in his grave) \ud83d\ude21
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvz5y4ytq2k<\/a><\/p>\n

I think we see a tremendously higher level of UA warfare now in 2024 where they lay a carpet of death over rear functions and knock out huge amounts on the highways. Much of this probably does not even show up in the daily loss lists \u2013 all the mines they hear exploding in the forests at night for example as Accentmannen describes.<\/p>\n

Someone said we always become pessimistic just before it turns, so let’s hope for that \u2013 the NATO meeting will give a clear indication of what the West has managed to agree on, very interesting. Last time in 2023 Zelensky was called ungrateful and told to keep quiet, so it probably won\u2019t get worse than that, and Zelensky seems to be pushing for them to strike the airbases very hard.<\/p>\n

Seems to be a company of Chinese SOF in Belarus?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1810597071998558619?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Japan and South Korea are starting to get seriously worried.
\nhttps:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/07\/09\/japan-and-the-philippines-sign-landmark-defense-deal-to-counter-china-.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Belarus has had many military exercises and the latest one is with “territorial” so it is the home guard training on the border to the Baltic states which should mean they are training everything else too.
\nhttps:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/belarus-conducts-military-drills-near-ukraine-eu-border\/a-68716108<\/a><\/p>\n

Here were Belarus\u2019s big exercises in 2023 and even then there were Wagner instructors.
\nhttps:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/aug\/07\/tensions-rise-as-belarus-begins-military-drills-near-poland-and-lithuania<\/a><\/p>\n

Their “anti-terrorist defense exercise” this year is called “Falcon Assault” and practices river crossings \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china-belarus-start-joint-military-drills-near-polish-border-2024-07-09\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Russia is NOT the whole conflict, they are a stepwise escalation that takes us to the next step, and the next, I have read that in Pearson\u2019s book.<\/p>\n

Forcing NATO to choose between retaking, for example, Estonia or remaining passive is probably on Putin\u2019s to-do list when the time is right.<\/p>\n

According to Pearson\u2019s book, I..el will be overrun. I don\u2019t think their defense forces will adjust fast enough to the drone weapon and better missile weapons so that some of their advantage they have had until now is eroded. But if there is a country that has stood looking into the abyss and risen every fifteen years, it\u2019s damn well I..el.
\nIraq has started to get involved in the fight against I..el by the way, or rebel groups in the country that Ir,@.s government can do nothing about.
\nhttps:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/irans-allies-ira@-are-firing-i@@@l-what-if-they-draw-blood-2024-06-04\/<\/a>
\n(you have to remove the @)<\/p>\n

What the West needs now is for Ukraine to break Putin\u2019s back so the whole BRIICS sees it without it being misinterpreted \u2013 a broadside.<\/p>\n

We haven\u2019t really been able to position India yet but Narendra Modi\u2019s visit to Moscow with extra everything says a lot \u2013 when was he last in the USA or EU?<\/p>\n

Or China\u2019s visits to Serbia, Hungary and France \u2013 are those the EU\u2019s biggest countries for Chinese exports?<\/p>\n

BRIICS is by definition the other side now and has China, Russia and India on its side. They currently consist of 10 countries (right?) and about 40 more are on the list to join.
\nUAE, for example, has bought into many companies in the West and is now part of BRIICS.
\nhttps:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/are-middle-east-investments-in-the-west-a-threat\/a-66773511<\/a><\/p>\n

My thought has always been that the West now must show itself to be a more attractive alternative and fish up strategic partners all over the world but that does not seem to be happening.<\/p>\n

Asia is forming itself where Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia out of necessity work together and the USA has a commitment regarding Taiwan that we hope they never let go of.<\/p>\n

Our eastern border must be strengthened and impenetrable, and then we must take a hard line against Slovakia, Hungary, and Serbia \u2013 if they want to side with Russia, we can also encircle them, just like it has been done before?<\/p>\n

It is unfortunate if the population in Belarus does not get their legally mandated freedom, and above all, it would make our border against the Russian threat much more manageable.<\/p>\n

I also have another thought \u2013 I think individual countries should act more aggressively \u2013 if Poland wants to send Mig-29s and something more, they should do so. If France wants to send instructors, they should do it, if we want to send Gripens, we should do it. The US strategy of holding back is NOT the best for the EU in any way, and to me, it is very clear that China has just advanced its positions against the EU. I find Sullivan\u2019s reasoning above directly frightening.<\/p>\n

If Putin is already at war with the EU, carrying out sabotage, subversive activities, and otherwise trying to harm us to the maximum \u2013 can we not act or must we wait for the snail-paced USA to catch up?
\n– Station several brigades permanently in the Baltics this summer together with the Air Force and Air Defense.
\n– Send more materiel to Ukraine \u2013 all production goes to them.
\n– Poland slowly starts moving in and shooting down missiles over western Ukraine and keeps completely silent about it.
\n– Let Ukraine invade the northern oblasts because this one is almost the worst of all the yellow cards \ud83d\ude10
\nThat would be a start at least?<\/p>\n

Wild speculations \u2013 so why was Fico almost murdered or Lukashenko always sick as soon as he is near Putin?
\nCould it be that Putin does not like the proximity to China from these and tries to sabotage?
\nCould it be why Xi Jinping did not go to Russia but invited Putin to China, he does not trust surviving another visit to Russia?<\/p>\n

I was pondering a bit about a country with a port and concluded that it might be Albania that China is tying to itself, but there are a couple of other candidates.
\nhttps:\/\/cepa.org\/comprehensive-reports\/chinese-influence-in-albania\/<\/a><\/p>\n

At the same time as all the unpleasantness spreads in the West, as we have discussed for a few days now, there is not much to report from the fronts. The hope is that it is the opsec cover that is interfering a bit \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

We will probably get a full statement from the NATO meeting tomorrow, and we hope for some good news; 20 F-16s in a few days are welcome, and I am quite sure that Ukraine will soon be allowed to strike air bases beyond the 100 km line because that is an impossible position for the USA to maintain.<\/p>\n

It is no secret that UA carries out front-line pre-emptive strikes at most fronts and that they actively target ammunition depots and fuel depots, which causes shortages at the fronts over a time window.<\/p>\n

Here is reconnaissance against military bases and depots in Astrakhan, and also in nearby oblasts, they are targeting bases for buildup now, those units for the next RU offensive are being trained and equipped.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1810617412275826999?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nWe talked a lot about this, that if they were allowed to strike the 12 bases and all the air bases and depots inside Russian territory, they would quickly erase the maintenance and RU\u2019s future offensive capacity, and this has now started, although on too small a scale because the USA is still troublesome.<\/p>\n

We have also seen a shift in that defensive battles have become more dynamic.<\/p>\n

Here you have a newly resourced brigade.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvy6xx5ly22<\/a><\/p>\n

And you do remember that Sweden was supposed to send hundreds of PBV302s, so that gives one more brigade materiel.<\/p>\n

Spain is sending tanks soon with a second batch in September, then a brigade will get tanks as a battalion resource.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvycjctkz2l<\/a><\/p>\n

And now there are reports again about 155mm cluster ammunition (DPCIM?) so they have arrived from the USA again.<\/p>\n

We have discussed BPR, KPR, VPR, and BPR2 earlier, i.e., “people\u2019s republics” in the northern oblasts and that UA would copy RU\u2019s demand for liberation of Luhansk and Donetsk. UA themselves have discussed this earlier too, so it\u2019s not just a happy thread speculating.
\nHere you have the governor of Belgorod People\u2019s Republic.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1810752356524638325?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here you have the KGB in the 60s and how they came up with radicalization. Imagine the enormous reach they have today with social media and how entire groups are completely impossible to reason with. The Twitter purchase fits in well.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ockersm\/status\/1810623853720203566?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ivank Trump and Jarod Kushner are building a resort in Albania with Russian money and Kremlin contacts.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/olganyc1211\/status\/1810526108376309911?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Could it be true that China intends to invest in Ukraine, I have no idea and it is a Twitter rumor.
\nThe drones are true, that we know.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1810530408393535609?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And now for some good news, we can remove 1000 T72s from the 3500 tanks remaining in the reserves because they have autoloaders that are probably rusted through.
\nThat is why T62 and T55 are coming now, they have no autoloaders.
\nThere should be 700 left in the reserves, curious if any of them were T72s \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvzkd7nbv2w<\/a><\/p>\n

Russia is definitely critically short of armor as someone in the thread usually writes, and Ukraine can get thousands more.
\nProvided that China does not resource Russia with offensive weapons, they are likely to face acute shortages of most things now.<\/p>\n

Still a bit annoyed at the West and especially Sullivan, but it is getting better.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now Erdogan has topped off his peace trip by visiting Erdogan.<\/p>\n

Shouldn’t the Trojan horse start his journey as EU chairman with meetings with the members of the EU?<\/p>\n

This should have far-reaching consequences for Orban who has made all kinds of statements and trips in the capacity of EU chairman that are in no way anchored in the EU.<\/p>\n

If not, countries in the EU can behave however they want, I think.<\/p>\n

He is currently conducting geopolitics in an elevated security situation that goes against what is best for the EU.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

-Orban<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:09 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Really hope the NATO meeting leads to increased deliveries and quickly. The Air Force seems to be on track at least.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sullivan: \u201cI let the Polish speak to its self-defense needs but we don\u2019t want to see this war escalate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Can be interpreted in different ways, but I interpret it as Sullivan considering himself able to speak for Poland and that he allows them to handle their self-defense issues.<\/p>\n

It is not a little cheeky AND completely new. In WW2 the USA did not enter the war but had no opinions on how the allies should fight. Here the USA steps in and stops the EU from acting, which is absolutely remarkable \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Keir Starmer confirms that Ukraine can use Storm Shadow without restrictions on Russian territory \u2013 wonderful \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1810957758256075207?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The French and Italians have said the same, so there we might have a few thousand missiles perhaps?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Could possibly be enough against the airbases.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:22 \u2013 Johan No.1 The Lions https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1810315636980998465?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w I had a really sour post in the works but then came news 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