{"id":9318,"date":"2024-07-12T10:33:06","date_gmt":"2024-07-12T08:33:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-07-12-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T11:57:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T09:57:33","slug":"2024-07-12-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-07-12-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-07-12"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Do you remember the earlier discussions about how Russia would call Ukraine the aggressor when Russia only wanted peace and how it was Ukraine that killed all the children, and the pro-Russians in the West would cry over Ukraine’s aggression. We have actually reached that point in Russia’s rhetoric if you listen to Putin and the troll accounts, completely shameless \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

The lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1811410719629296102?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I thought I would stop my rants but I can’t because this never ends. I can’t decide if the strategic communication from the last NATO meeting was worse or if this was a new low point. Back then Zelensky was supposed to keep quiet because he was ungrateful if you remember.<\/p>\n

Biden shakes hands with Orban at the NATO meeting and his administration posts it in an ad for Biden \ud83d\ude32
\nMeanwhile, all leaders in the EU are completely furious at Orban\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/potus\/status\/1811199981832847362?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then the Trojan truffle pig has also visited Trump, here we can talk about suddenly having relevance \u2013 Biden, Trump, Putin, Zelensky, and Xi Jinping in one week. It really pays off to rant freely, this is pure Olof Palme.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kx2xyxb6gp2y<\/a><\/p>\n

And this one stood out a bit, Orban has met Macedonia’s prime minister with a delegation in the USA, why I wonder?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/PM_ViktorOrban\/status\/1811411711275974817<\/a><\/p>\n

Kirby is clearer here than ever, avoiding escalation is absolutely the most important thing and then it\u2019s just word salad.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwz2femeeq2v<\/a><\/p>\n

And Scholz wants to be sure nothing is misunderstood \u2013 Ukraine is not allowed to shoot any Western weapons at the Russian airbases inside Russia because that would be “unnecessary”.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kx2tiuh6oi2k<\/a><\/p>\n

And Scholz says this at the same time as the news breaks that Russia planned to assassinate the CEO of Rheinmetall
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukraine_map\/status\/1811426503902494874?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then the British MoD doesn’t want to be outdone and clarifies that Kier Starmer was completely wrong \u2013 Storm Shadow is not allowed to be used against targets in Russia. Stole that from the thread’s own copywriter MXT.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1811641264992932292?t=C6g-P0cqiZ-77EYZw5yOZQ&s=19<\/a><\/p>\n

Guess if Denmark’s Metter will come with a clarification pretty soon that Denmark’s F-16 absolutely MUST NOT be used against targets inside Russia, I give it a maximum of two days.<\/p>\n

Good heavens what a complete failure in strategic communication this was, the West appears completely submissive in everything, the northern front is spared and Putin is running circles around NATO right now \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n

Now at least I\u2019m starting to get worried because Putin sees all this and hears it at the same time as Belarus has its “Falcon Assault” exercise with Chinese SOF where they practice river crossings 2.8 km from the Polish border.
\nGuess who else is worried \u2013 the Baltic states.
\nhttps:\/\/news.sky.com\/story\/ukraine-war-why-the-baltic-states-on-natos-frontline-with-russia-are-urging-their-allies-to-wake-up-13084332<\/a><\/p>\n

Where is the West\u2019s counter-exercise, where are NATO\u2019s intervention brigades that should already be in the Baltics?<\/p>\n

Putin has also announced that he wants more of the Baltic Sea (but seems to have changed his mind).
\nhttps:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c6ppl5v1lwzo<\/a>
\nAnd that Russia plans to place an army corps at the border with Estonia.
\nhttps:\/\/www.lrt.lt\/en\/news-in-english\/19\/2194786\/russia-may-double-troops-along-border-with-baltics-finland-estonian-intelligence<\/a>
\nNo shortage of escalation here from Putin!<\/p>\n

If I understand this correctly, the Baltic states have already “invoked article 4” but not much has happened, the Germans are setting up a Lithuania brigade as the staff group has arrived and Poland has probably agreed on some support in a crisis?
\nhttps:\/\/eng.lsm.lv\/article\/society\/defense\/baltic-states-and-poland-move-to-invoke-nato-article-4.a445105\/<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/ip-quarterly.com\/en\/future-zeitenwende-scenario-3-russia-masses-troops-latvian-border<\/a><\/p>\n

It is important to understand that NATO has not been tested when it comes to retaking a country. Everyone talks about defense but when it instead becomes a question of retaking occupied areas at great losses \u2013 how does NATO stand on that in practice?
\nNot meeting Belarus\u2019 “Falcon Assault” exercise with a counter-exercise is strange to me but completely in line with the US\u2019s desire not to escalate and Germany dragging its feet with the Lithuania brigade is also in line with not wanting to escalate.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not very hard to see Putin\u2019s battle plan here \u2013
\n-keep the “Lithuania brigade” occupied in Lithuania while Russia occupies Estonia in a few days.
\n-Chinese military is in Belarus so NATO cannot attack Belarus.
\n-NATO must now decide whether Estonia should be retaken, Russia claims Estonia has always been Russian and the whole influence operation starts (again).
\n-There are nice natural obstacles Russia can defend behind that would make a counteroffensive quite costly, the P\u00e4rnu river in Estonia or the Daugava river in Latvia.
\n-All NATO units stationed in Lithuania get FAB bombs and missiles raining down on them along with artillery from Belarus.
\n-Lukashenko stands on TV crying hysterically that terrorists have taken over the military but that he is doing his best to regain control with China\u2019s help and asks for one more week to solve the coup.
\n-NATO\u2019s credibility suddenly stands at stake, should war be declared on China or keep world peace. The entire BRICS watches wide-eyed and takes notes.<\/p>\n

Does that Russian army corps exist today \u2013 the strategic reserve existed so it is likely it exists today.
\nI believe Putin and China see an opening here and that Chinese SOF in Belarus is not God’s will.
\nPutin and China have tested the US since 2014, then the Ukraine war, Houthi and October 7, and when nothing happens they take the next step on the ladder.<\/p>\n

Trying to avoid WW3 is right now what is leading us towards WW3 and when it starts Kirby and Biden will say they did everything to avoid it \u2013 when in fact they drove the world towards it.<\/p>\n

At least Chamberlain got a signed paper \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Right now I have to admit that history is repeating itself and that a Russian attack on the Baltics is becoming increasingly likely.
\nThen as some legend named Umbra brought up yesterday, the US is already the friend who betrays \u2013 the Budapest Memorandum.
\nThis ultimately concerns trust in the US.<\/p>\n

I see a contradiction in that Biden wants to be seen on film with Orban while the heads of state in the EU take to Twitter to scold the Trojan truffle pig’s global transgressions. Biden is completely tone-deaf.<\/p>\n

And who wants to buy American weapons systems when you are not allowed to use them in a real situation?<\/p>\n

It is not clear to me whether the US will send 20 of its own F-16s or if it was the Netherlands’ and Denmark’s F-16s that were meant. It\u2019s starting to look like the US took credit for what those countries are sending, at least David D was as mad as a hornet about that \ud83d\ude00
\nIn WW1 and WW2 the US was not an active participant but did not hinder the Allies.<\/p>\n

In this war the US is slowing down other countries in the EU as they try to ensure Ukraine survives.<\/p>\n

I wonder who came up with the worst idea of the century to not provide any ammunition for a year and see what would happen \u2013 NO ONE in the entire West could surely have predicted the outcome because there were too many parameters.
\nWhat if the UA lines had collapsed and all of Ukraine had been conquered during the autumn of 2023?<\/p>\n

However, there are signs that countries in the EU are starting to throw away the script now, France has definitely done so, Italy as well, and the Netherlands and Denmark have insisted on F-16s.<\/p>\n

I absolutely think that Poland and Sweden can join that group, if we can\u2019t forward base Gripen to Poland then those 20 Mig-29s can be sent to Ukraine. If Gripen is stationed in northern Poland or S\u00e5ten\u00e4s, what difference does it make?<\/p>\n

-What will the USA say if the Baltics are attacked?
\nDo they then want to avoid escalating even more by throwing the Baltics to the wolves?
\n-Or Taiwan, do they want to avoid escalating even more?
\n-Or is it only about Ukraine?
\n-If Russia lands in Alaska and threatens with nuclear weapons \u2013 will the USA choose to avoid escalation and give up land in Alaska?<\/p>\n

This is relevant because it is the strategy they have with Europe\u2019s backyard right now, which could very well affect EU countries in the near future.<\/p>\n

This is not clear enough and there is irritation with Zelensky and the West now, I think the NATO meeting was quite intense and our Prime Minister went out with what they would push for, which was very un-Swedish.<\/p>\n

The USA has slowly started to make itself irrelevant and if they continue on this path, they are the ones who will lose out on this.
\nIt is not a natural law that the USA is at the top of the pyramid and especially Africa is open for the EU to tie important countries to us by maneuvering out Russia and China.<\/p>\n

Sorry for the rant, it\u2019s war again \u2013
\nLooked at the southern front and the only territorial brigade at Robotyne is the 108th, which is a brigade that has existed since 2018 \u2013 they are today to be considered an elite unit, presumably?
\nOtherwise, there are offensive guard and mech brigades at Robotyne \u2013 10 brigades in total, 2 artillery brigades and 7 battalion-sized units.
\nThen in the line between lies the 102nd territorial, which are probably also an elite unit today that has existed since 2018.
\nOver at Staromaiorske there are the 104th, 128th, 127th, 129th and 118th, all formed between 2018-2022 so years of combat experience.
\n3 artillery brigades, 1 Tank, 37th marines, 5 maneuver brigades and a battalion from the presidential brigade.
\nSo twelve brigades in total.
\nThere is a lot of firepower at the southern front as well.
\nOn the Russian side at the southern front, there are more and more \u201cterritorial\u201d regiments with numbers in the 1000s. I have the impression that they are about 1000 men strong and lack mech, so infantry.<\/p>\n

Couldn\u2019t help myself \u2013
\nBy the way, the USA\u2019s line will not work much longer but the question is what comes first, a diabolical move from Russia or the EU starting to break out of paralysis and stand behind Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Kirby\u2019s statement above is outdated, everyone understands that, and that Biden wants to be seen on camera with Orban when the leaders in the EU are furious at him and want to take back the presidency baton is more than tone-deaf. To me, it signals that Biden is not in control.<\/p>\n

What is surprising in this context is that all leaders are prepared to accept the risk that Ukraine will capitulate because that is what lies in the other scale with all these strategies.<\/p>\n

Far too much of the responsibility is placed on Ukraine and chaos is one murder of Zelensky away.<\/p>\n

Then Poland at some point will not be able to hold back any longer due to the security of the realm. Every leader in the EU probably understands that the USA completely doesn\u2019t care about Europe right now but for everyone it is not as urgent as for Poland. Poland became free in 1989 and has an absolutely brutal history in its baggage so the slightest risk that Ukraine starts to falter or that the Baltic states are invaded should trigger a reaction from them presumably because then they know they are next.<\/p>\n

The thread laughs at Chinese SOF in Belarus but Poland does not.<\/p>\n

Even though one might think so, the world does not revolve around the USA and just like everyone else, you get the reputation you deserve and the USA is eroding its goodwill quite quickly now.<\/p>\n

Then I seriously wonder about the USA\u2019s fear of escalation \u2013 Ukraine has hit 42 refineries and sunk half the Black Sea fleet without escalation. There was also no escalation when Ukraine invaded Russia two years in a row.<\/p>\n

There was also no escalation when Ukraine was allowed to strike targets 100km inside Russia with Western weapons.<\/p>\n

But it would be World War III according to USA\u2019s Kirby if they strike targets over 100km inside Russia with Western weapons.<\/p>\n

The USA has completely lost it here, that is the only reasonable conclusion or alternatively they have hidden motives for their actions which is just as bad.<\/p>\n

Now I am curious how Kirby et al. will handle this recent statement from Putin, considering what Kirby stands and says it was quite expected, right, Putin can once again threaten world war against everyone \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/revmaxxing\/status\/1811203593694851392?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Something important came up yesterday \u2013 Ukraine has a weapons industry that can produce for 20 billion USD\/year but it is underfunded so that is why Denmark is financing a number of Bohdana wheeled howitzers.
\nHow can a bombed-out Ukraine have a bigger weapons industry than many countries in the EU?
\nHow can it be underfunded, all weapons industry should be running at 100%.<\/p>\n

Not everything makes one tearful, there is something simmering in Russia because first it was Romanov who criticized the war and now it is this milblogger. They know that poisoned underwear is the way for this kind of thing so presumably have protection and this protector wants to paint Putin in boring colors?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/chriso_wiki\/status\/1811504251216048252?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Drone attack in Chechnya was also exciting.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/golub\/status\/1811149480424870221?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This NATO meeting turned out just as bad as last year, absolutely incredible that the West\u2019s leaders cannot manage to unite under the flag after 2.5 years of war. Putin is extremely hungover today after partying on the most expensive champagne in his bunker \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

It is a bit more positive that Ukraine is now destroying the logistics train at a furious pace and that means that 84 soft vehicles with among other things water did not arrive in 40-degree heat and blazing sun. This should make the trench Russians thirsty and a film flew by yesterday where a Russian takes water from a puddle with a corpse next to it \u2013 very good \ud83d\udc4d
\nAt Kherson they should be quite exhausted because there is not much water beyond the Dnipro and in the Dnipro lie corpses poisoning the water. Then Ukraine probably has snipers covering every meter of the left bank of the Dnipro, one hopes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:07 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Well written!<\/p>\n

Incomprehensible how they reason. How do they think Ukraine will be able to win?<\/p>\n

If Russia had not bombed and murdered civilians and not destroyed infrastructure, I might have understood a strategy where they slowly want to bleed Russia out until they can no longer hold out, but as it is now, their idea is inhuman and completely useless.<\/p>\n

More civilians will be affected and there is a risk that Ukraine will be the ones who ultimately have to give up.<\/p>\n

You get angry, disappointed, and sad at the same time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

We are looking at the information that comes out.
\nUntil a week ago, China was passive.
\nUntil a week ago, we thought Ukraine would be able to take out the airbases on the northern front.<\/p>\n

When new information comes, we have to discuss it.<\/p>\n

The least of our problems is UA fighting at the fronts, that is going great.
\nBut the West is still tying Ukraine’s hands and someday Zelensky will get a bullet in the head and Ukraine will turn inward \u2013 the longer it takes, the higher the risk.<\/p>\n

Did you see that Romanov and now this blogger have started criticizing the war \u2013 they are not allowed to do that under Putin, then it\u2019s prison and penal colony, so something is definitely simmering.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Exactly in words \u2013 \u201cUkraine shall win\u201d but in action they keep sabotaging Ukraine all the time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

You just saw the scout for a cavalry regiment \u2013 do you think the regiment is half a day away or do you think the scout is alone?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Hohoho thread \u2013 Andrew Perpetua sees the same thing we have brought up twice now regarding the Russian milblogs and that something is simmering \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/AndrewPerpetua\/status\/1811781014387077307<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:54 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\u201dThey goofed\u201d \ud83d\ude04\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1 Do you remember the earlier discussions about how Russia would call Ukraine the aggressor when Russia 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