{"id":9320,"date":"2024-07-11T09:00:09","date_gmt":"2024-07-11T07:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-07-11-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T11:57:36","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T09:57:36","slug":"2024-07-11-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-07-11-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-07-11"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Has Putin previously pushed peace proposals this hard (yes, it is a diabolical plan where he simultaneously intends to escalate elsewhere and get a water break)?
\nHas China previously sent troops to Belarus?
\nThings are moving, that can only be the conclusion, right, Putin is worried.<\/p>\n

Ulf Kristersson has also completely turned around Swedish foreign policy towards Russia, which is refreshing \u2013 danke. Having experienced realpolitik before and how Russia got away with everything, it is a somewhat incredible feeling to see the Russian subversive activities being seen through and that more and more leaders are speaking out. Nobody likes a loser is something Putin is now starting to learn the meaning of.<\/p>\n

The NATO meeting went better than in 2023 where it was stated that Zelensky was ungrateful and should keep quiet, but it landed shortly anyway I think. A completely meaningless statement that they would be allowed to join NATO, as long as Turkey and Hungary are in NATO for example.<\/p>\n

The only thing that matters right now is whether UA gets to use US weapons to fire into Russian territory AND gets to invade the northern oblasts \u2013 everything else is secondary and the US was very clear about that just yesterday.<\/p>\n

The thread\u2019s analytical demigod Dengamle aired yesterday what would happen if UA simply ignored the US\u2019s idiotic orders and went ahead \u2013 what was the worst that could happen.<\/p>\n

Some farmer wrote in response that nothing would happen because it would be a worse alternative to stop sending support.<\/p>\n

Surely the doubters smelled morning air and that no one would ever go against the US but I have to remind that Italy, France, and the UK are doing exactly that and that Storm Shadow has actually already been used against airbases deep inside. But it is the ATACMS cluster munitions that provide the wide-area suppression needed. When they ran the campaign against occupied areas, they got enormous results. Then French JDAMS are already being used against targets in Russia because they have no geographical restrictions but the range is not sufficient.<\/p>\n

And then I am convinced that an offensive straight into the northern oblasts is not yet unlocked and that is highly unfortunate. Probably the EU is a bit anxious about that as well.<\/p>\n

The air force seems to have been hurried at last and \u201cwithin days\u201d for the first 20 F-16s presumably means before the week is over?<\/p>\n

At first glance, the Dnipro front does not look strong at all but we looked a little closer at it in a world-leading analysis \u2013
\n126th Territorial has been upgraded to a marine brigade and the same applies to the 124th TDF.
\nhttps:\/\/militaryland.net\/news\/126th-territorial-defense-brigade-joins-marines\/<\/a><\/p>\n

This makes the battle group at Dnipro considerably more powerful and no one has missed that the UK recently sent 50 river boats and the US has also sent new boats. These are smaller than those previously sent and probably easy to handle.
\nThis is on top of all the SB90s and what they had before as well as the Netherlands\u2019 and presumably the US\u2019s previous deliveries of floating death.<\/p>\n

There are thus 4 marine brigades at Dnipro, so around 8,000 a bit more if fully staffed, and a considerable river boat squadron.
\nFollowed by 6 special forces in battalion strength.
\nAnd 6 brigades from TDF\/NG which at least are experienced infantry brigades by now but probably have some mech and reconnaissance\/SOF\/drones.
\nIn Mykolaiv there is a newly established infantry brigade and the 5th Tank brigade as well as the 27th NG brigade are in the area.<\/p>\n

At the Dnipro front, UA has about 14 brigades of capable units and an armada of aircraft to conduct cross-river raids which is considerable.<\/p>\n

The drone weapon is also very active at the Dnipro front and it has been stated that Ukraine has complete drone superiority there.<\/p>\n

The air force has conducted JDAMS drops and there are two artillery brigades dedicated to the Dnipro front.<\/p>\n

Tanks can also stand on the right bank of the Dnipro and shoot accurately at the left bank from dominating heights.
\nSo the Dnipro front is definitely strong, can conduct amphibious operations, and today has the capability for offensive operations across the Dnipro.<\/p>\n

British Storm Shadows are now allowed to fire into Russia, the same applies to Italy and France so presumably a few thousand available?
\nThen they are newly manufactured as I understand by MBDA and then these countries should be able to send all they have.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwwcqbbqsy25<\/a><\/p>\n

Many countries in the EU sit on absolutely ENORMOUS vehicle parks of older IFVs and MBTs. There are now many companies throughout the EU installing new weapon stations and doing full REMO on the vehicles and this has been going on for a while.
\nWhat is in the barns in the EU far exceeds what Russia has left, I think I took Bulgaria, France, and Italy earlier and got together 15,000 older splinter-protected vehicles that could be sent. The French had about 4,000 of the old VAB Renault vehicles for example.<\/p>\n

New production of IFVs, ATGMs, and MBTs has also started in Europe, generation 5 I believe, as well as modification programs of all MBTs to new levels \u2013 5 in total I think we saw at the arms fair.
\nNew production is embarrassingly low in Russia and that is not generation 5 and now I guess a bit but do not think China has started with the next generation yet even though they have the same ideas as the West \u2013 the tank becomes a multiple weapon platform with enormous close protection.<\/p>\n

Russia is completely left behind and above all UA crews survive to fight another day while the Russians either get grilled in the vehicle or are taken out by drones in spectacular death on film.
\nUntil China sends MBTs or IFVs, RU is toast and it will take them at least 6 months to be able to operate such a vehicle.<\/p>\n

Again \u2013 the West does not have time on its side either because at some point China will do exactly that together with missiles and drones in such numbers that it will be like 2022-2023 again for UA.<\/p>\n

Iran has now been caught financing the P\u2026a protests in the US and we can reasonably assume that the campaign against I..el is also directed from the evil side.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwyn7pfx3n2z<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/biden-intel-chief-iran-funding-emboldening-anti-israel-protests-in-us-to-sow-discord\/<\/a><\/p>\n

October 7 has RU and China\u2019s fingerprints everywhere.<\/p>\n

What does that do to those who consider the P..a protests and criticism of the West and I..el justified and actively participate in them?
\nDo you remember the post yesterday about the KGB and how they discovered how quickly they can radicalize people.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvzetj4g62l<\/a><\/p>\n

There is a lot of discussion now that our government must be overthrown because they are at least na@is \u2013 somewhere in that mix with upset citizens, ideologically bound overwinterers, and party-political snipers there is of course also a Russian influence operation simmering.<\/p>\n

Then it is A1 in the old KGB manual to destroy trust in the government and to break down national belonging.
\nSomeone called this being a purveyor of chaos when trying to discuss it but we have enough evidence that these are Russian influence operations throughout the EU that pit groups against each other.
\nFor example, about a year ago the anti-j\u2026k symbols were painted by the FSB in France as usual. Just like during the Cold War in West Germany where the neo-nazis were KGB who painted German crosses on walls and lots of slogans. Spies with felt-tip pens.<\/p>\n

It IS a new world order where you have to start thinking about whose interests you are serving in various issues.<\/p>\n

Taking myself as an example, I have throughout the entire war defended that China has acted restrained and said that we must wait for their cards, and the first two were positive. I have been accused of China being my white spot, I think \ud83d\ude00
\nThat they realized on October 7 and have troops in Belarus means that they are escalating far beyond this, and then I have taken a new position as you saw the other day.
\nHonest debate thus and no ideological blinders, and many of those should be removed right now so that one does not risk serving Russia’s or Iran’s interests.<\/p>\n

What I have seen from the Kristersson government regarding the Ukraine war is very positive.
\nKill the reds \u270a<\/p>\n

I\u2019m stealing this from LW in the blog yesterday: \u201cA sub-operation is Isyxan, which is a reference to how Trotsky was murdered in exile, but is supposed to be about carrying out character assassination against Kremlin\u2019s enemies in the West. They aim for such extensive smear campaigns against the targets that \u2018not even the neighbors will greet them anymore\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n

Not everything is honey traps and hidden cameras behind mirrors.
\nAn old classic trick is to, by means of hackers or otherwise, hide illegal pre-adult films on a person\u2019s computer and then tip off IT.
\nAnd then leak names and pictures to the newspapers.
\nEven if the person in question is acquitted, they are tainted for the rest of their life and have probably resigned from their position before the verdict is announced.
\nThen Russian connections could well emerge as a new character assassin and it is probably quite easy to fake if you are Russia.
\nDirectly in the UK there has been an intense campaign to blacken Kier Starmer, for example, coincidentally on the same day.
\nIn the USA we see how the media almost completely ignore what has been released about Ep@tein now when they previously ran the whole Q@non line with all Democrats drinking child blood \u2013 why is a VERY relevant question.<\/p>\n

Why doesn\u2019t this become an absolute storm against Trump in the established media in the USA? These are verifiable documents from trials and preliminary investigations that have now been declassified and are 10 years old, so no connection to an influence operation against him.
\nThis is a mechanism I find interesting: the media machinery that starts up at various times and the whole PR apparatus has a completely blind spot when it comes to Russia and the Ukraine war and only reports dutifully.
\nAnd this is Europe\u2019s future so it should engage all citizens in Europe significantly more than, for example, the crisis in G..a.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\ude21 The Trojan truffle pig topped off its traitor trip by visiting Turkey. If I had been an autocratic dictator, I would have pushed the line that Hungary must choose between Orban or EU membership and then waited for it to explode. There are already huge demonstrations against Orban in Hungary; they have seen through him a long time ago.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pm_viktororban\/status\/1810917547799191714?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Partisan attack in Sochi, for those who have bothered to count there have been several partisan groups in the feed lately.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1811092822214463744<\/a><\/p>\n

This one looks promising, the stock market in RU is falling sharply.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1811095342575690017<\/a><\/p>\n

But then you read this, the EU is actually considering RENEWING gas contracts with Gazprom for 2025 \ud83d\ude2d
\nThis is not a bad joke any more than the USA wanting to prevent \u201cescalation\u201d from Russia.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/thesiriusreport\/status\/1810993226880303235?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Remember when Russia was going to start a career with piracy in the Black Sea and the West immediately started thinking about whether to let Russia back into SWIFT to avoid boarding. Then Ukraine came and sank some ships, the Black Sea Fleet fled to Novorossiysk and the problem was solved in a few weeks.
\nI\u2019m starting to get tired of this \u2013 let Ukraine conduct this war without rules of engagement and with hands untied and stop increasing Russia\u2019s war chest.
\nFor these gas revenues, they buy robots and drones from Iran, China, and North Korea.<\/p>\n

Darth Putin has not forgotten the raccoon
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/DarthPutinKGB\/status\/1810039318158676439<\/a><\/p>\n

The Polish Legion has already been mentioned a lot so just for my archive. Hopefully the USA won\u2019t realize that it is escalating \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1810317807411736810?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Has Putin previously pushed peace proposals this hard (yes, it is a diabolical plan where he simultaneously intends to escalate elsewhere and get a water break)?
\nHas China previously sent troops to Belarus?
\nThings are moving, that can only be the conclusion, right, Putin is worried.<\/p>\n

Ulf Kristersson has also completely turned Swedish foreign policy towards Russia, which is refreshing \u2013 danke. Having lived through realpolitik before and how Russia got away with everything, it is a somewhat incredible feeling to see the Russian subversive activity being seen through and that more and more leaders are speaking out. Nobody likes a loser is what Putin is starting to learn the meaning of now.<\/p>\n

The NATO meeting went better than 2023 where it was stated that Zelensky was ungrateful and should keep quiet but it landed shortly anyway, I think. A completely meaningless statement that they would be allowed to join NATO, as long as Turkey and Hungary are in NATO, for example.<\/p>\n

The only thing that counts right now is if UA gets to use the USA\u2019s weapons to shoot into Russian territory AND gets to invade the northern oblasts \u2013 everything else is secondary and there the USA was very clear just yesterday.<\/p>\n

The thread\u2019s analytical demigod Dengamle aired yesterday what would happen if UA simply ignored the USA\u2019s idiotic orders and went ahead \u2013 what was the worst that could happen.<\/p>\n

Some peasant wrote in response that nothing would happen because it would be a worse alternative to stop sending support.<\/p>\n

Surely the doubters smelled morning air and that no one would ever go against the USA but I have to remind that Italy, France, and the UK are doing exactly that and that Storm Shadow has actually been deployed against airbases deep inside already. But it is the ATACMS cluster munitions that provide the area-wide combat needed. When they ran the campaign against occupied areas they got enormous results. Then French JDAMS are already being used against targets in Russia because they have no geographic restrictions but the range is not sufficient.<\/p>\n

And then I am convinced that an offensive straight into the northern oblasts is not yet unlocked and that is highly unfortunate. Probably the EU is a bit timid about that as well.<\/p>\n

They seem to have hurried the air force at last and \u201cwithin days\u201d for the first 20 F-16s presumably means before the week is over?<\/p>\n

At first glance, the Dnipro front does not look strong at all but we looked a bit closer in a world-leading analysis \u2013
\nThe 126th Territorial has been upgraded to a marine brigade and the same applies to the 124th TDF.
\nhttps:\/\/militaryland.net\/news\/126th-territorial-defense-brigade-joins-marines\/<\/a><\/p>\n

This makes the battle group at Dnipro considerably more effective and no one has missed that the UK recently sent 50 river boats and that the USA has sent new boats as well. These are smaller than those previously sent and probably easy to handle.
\nThis is on top of all the SB90s and what they had before as well as the Netherlands\u2019 and presumably the USA\u2019s previous deliveries of floating death.<\/p>\n

There are thus 4 marine brigades at the Dnieper, so around just over 8,000 if fully staffed, and a considerable river boat squadron.
\nFollowed by 6 special forces at battalion strength.
\nAnd 6 brigades from TDF\/NG which by now are at least experienced infantry brigades but probably have some mechanized units and reconnaissance\/SOF\/drones.
\nIn Mykolaiv there is a newly formed infantry brigade and the 5th Tank brigade as well as the 27th NG brigade in the area.<\/p>\n

At the Dnieper front, UA has about 14 brigades of capable units and an armada of vessels to conduct cross-river raids, which is considerable.<\/p>\n

The drone weapon is also very active at the Dnieper front and it has been stated that Ukraine has complete drone superiority there.<\/p>\n

The air force has carried out JDAMS drops and there are two artillery brigades dedicated to the Dnieper front.<\/p>\n

Tanks can also be positioned on the right bank of the Dnieper and shoot accurately at the left bank from dominating heights.
\nSo the Dnieper front is definitely strong, can conduct amphibious operations, and today has the capability for offensive operations across the Dnieper.<\/p>\n

British Storm Shadows are now allowed to strike into Russia, the same applies to Italy and France, so presumably a few thousand available?
\nThen they are being newly manufactured as I understand by MBDA and then these countries should be able to send all they have.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwwcqbbqsy25<\/a><\/p>\n

Many countries in the EU have absolutely ENORMOUS stocks of older IFVs and MBTs. There are now many companies throughout the EU installing new weapon stations and performing full REMO on the vehicles and this has been going on for a while.
\nWhat is in the warehouses in the EU far exceeds what Russia still has, I think I took Bulgaria, France, and Italy earlier and got together 15,000 older fragment protection vehicles that could be sent. The French had about 4,000 of the old VAB Renault vehicles, for example.<\/p>\n

New production of IFVs, APCs, and MBTs has also started in Europe, generation 5 I believe, as well as modification programs for all MBTs to new levels \u2013 I think we saw 5 in total at the arms fair.
\nNew production is embarrassingly low in Russia and that is not generation 5, and now I guess a bit but I don’t think China has started with the next generation yet even though they have the same ideas as the West \u2013 the tank becomes a multiple weapon platform with enormous close protection.<\/p>\n

Russia is completely sidelined and above all UA crews survive to fight another day while the Russians either get grilled inside their vehicles or are taken out by drones in spectacular deaths on film.
\nUntil China sends MBTs or IFVs, RU is done for and it will take them at least 6 months to be able to operate such a vehicle.<\/p>\n

Again \u2013 the West does not have time on its side either because at some point China will do just that together with missiles and drones in such quantities that it will be like 2022-2023 again for UA.<\/p>\n

Iran has now been caught financing the P…a protests in the US and we can reasonably assume that the campaign against I..el is also directed from the evil side.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwyn7pfx3n2z<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.timesofi@@@el.com\/biden-intel-chief-iran-funding-emboldening-anti-i@@@l-protests-in-us-to-sow-discord\/<\/a><\/p>\n

October 7 has RU and China’s fingerprints everywhere.<\/p>\n

What does that mean then for those who consider the P..a protests and criticism against the West and I..el justified and actively participate in them?
\nDo you remember the post yesterday about the KGB and how they discovered how quickly they can radicalize people.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kwvzetj4g62l<\/a><\/p>\n

There is much discussion now that our government must be overthrown because they are at least na@ists \u2013 somewhere in that mix with upset citizens, ideologically bound holdovers, and partisan snipers there is of course also a Russian influence operation simmering.<\/p>\n

Then it is A1 in the old KGB manual to destroy trust in the government and to break down national identity.
\nSomeone called this being a peddler of chaos when trying to discuss it but we have enough evidence that these are Russian influence operations throughout the EU that pit groups against each other.
\nFor example, a year ago the anti-j… symbols were painted by the FSB in France as usual. Just like during the Cold War in West Germany where neo-nazis were KGB agents painting German crosses on walls and lots of slogans. Spies with felt-tip pens.<\/p>\n

It IS a new world order where one must start thinking about whose errands one is running on various issues.<\/p>\n

Speaking for myself, I have during an entire war defended that China has acted restrained and said we must wait for their cards and the first two were positive. I have been accused of China being my white spot I think \ud83d\ude00
\nThat they realized October 7 and have troops in Belarus means they are escalating far beyond this and then I have taken a new position as you saw the other day.
\nHonest debate thus and no ideological blinders, and those should come off for many right now so one does not risk running Russia’s or Iran’s errands.<\/p>\n

What I have seen from the Kristersson government regarding the Ukraine war is very positive.
\nKill the reds \u270a<\/p>\n

I steal this from LW on the blog yesterday \u201cA sub-operation is Isyxan, which is a reference to how Trotsky was murdered in exile, but is supposed to be about carrying out character assassinations against Kremlin enemies in the West. The aim is such extensive smear campaigns against the targets that \u201cnot even the neighbors will greet them anymore.\u201d<\/p>\n

Not everything is honey traps and hidden cameras behind mirrors.
\nAn old classic trick is to, by means of hackers or otherwise, hide illegal pre-adult films on a person’s computer and then tip off IT.
\nAnd then leak names and pictures to the newspapers.
\nEven if the person in question is acquitted, they are stained for life and have probably resigned from their position before the verdict.
\nThen Russian connections can of course surface as a new character assassin and it is probably quite easy to fake if you are Russia.
\nDirectly in the UK there has been an intense campaign to blacken Kier Starmer, for example, it happened on the day.
\nIn the US we see how the media almost completely ignores what has been released about Ep@tein now when they previously pushed the entire Q@non line with all Democrats drinking child blood \u2013 why that is a VERY relevant question.<\/p>\n

Why does this not become an absolute storm against Trump in the established media in the US, these are verifiable documents from trials and investigations now declassified and 10 years old so no connection to an influence operation against him.
\nThis is a mechanism I find interesting that the media machinery that starts up at various times and the whole PR apparatus has a completely blind spot when it comes to Russia and the Ukraine war and only reports perfunctorily.
\nAnd this is Europe’s future so it should engage all citizens in Europe significantly more than, for example, the crisis in G..a.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\ude21 The Trojan truffle pig topped off his traitor trip by visiting Turkey. If I had been an autocratic dictator I would have pushed the line that Hungary must choose between Orban or EU membership and then waited for it to explode. There are already huge demonstrations against Orban in Hungary, they have seen through him a long time ago.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pm_viktororban\/status\/1810917547799191714?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Partisan attack in Sochi, for those who have bothered to count there have been several partisan groups in the feed lately.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1811092822214463744<\/a><\/p>\n

This one looks promising, the stock market in RU is falling sharply.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1811095342575690017<\/a><\/p>\n

But then you read this, the EU is actually considering RENEWING gas contracts with Gazprom for 2025 \ud83d\ude2d
\nThis is not a bad joke any more than the US wanting to prevent \u201cescalation\u201d from Russia.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/thesiriusreport\/status\/1810993226880303235?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Do you remember when Russia was supposed to start a career in piracy in the Black Sea and the West immediately started wondering if they should let Russia back into SWIFT to avoid being boarded. Then Ukraine came and sank some ships, the Black Sea Fleet fled to Novorossiysk and the problem was solved in a few weeks.
\nI’m starting to get tired of this \u2013 let Ukraine wage this war without rules of engagement and with hands untied and stop increasing Russia’s war chest.
\nFor these gas revenues they buy missiles and drones from Iran, China, and North Korea.<\/p>\n

Darth Putin has not forgotten the raccoon
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/DarthPutinKGB\/status\/1810039318158676439<\/a><\/p>\n

The Polish Legion has been mentioned a lot already so just for my archive. Hopefully the US doesn\u2019t realize it\u2019s escalating \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1810317807411736810?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Apparently it was Walter Kronkite (maybe I remember wrong) who reported negatively about the war back home in the US so it became a political issue, apparently it went okay but politics decided to pull out. Maybe I misunderstood?<\/p>\n

Yep, the Ukraine war is completely black and white, there is no gray area at all which is very refreshing.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s becoming my opinion that if the US completely backed out \u2013 no materiel and no restrictions for anyone, then it would probably go better for Ukraine. Europe has enough to send on its own.<\/p>\n

Then the US can try to explain to the West why they should be the top of the pyramid going forward.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I am worried about escalation, a global escalation, because in the long run it will mean that the politicians who today pat each other on the back for not escalating have legal grounds for our children to die for our freedom in the future whether we want it or not. I don\u2019t want to lay flowers on my children\u2019s graves just because our elected officials slept through 2024 when they could have gotten away with Ukrainian parents laying flowers on their children\u2019s graves.<\/p>\n

Then the US can, just like during WW1 and WW2, decide to do nothing but they don\u2019t, they use all the pressure they have to persuade Western countries not to help Ukraine too much. Most recently they stopped Poland in something that is highly reasonable.<\/p>\n

There is a huge difference between the Baltics \u2013 Poland \u2013 Sweden \u2013 USA.
\nThe Baltics know they are next in line.
\nPoland knows they are after the Baltics.
\nSweden thinks we will manage but better prepare for war so we get peace.
\nThe US will never be invaded and war is not bad business for them.<\/p>\n

The fact that the US controls Poland\u2019s foreign policy is remarkable because that is what they have done, told Poland not to fulfill the commitments they have agreed with Ukraine.<\/p>\n

You won\u2019t find many cynical statements from the countries in Europe today 2024, the US stands quite alone in this now.
\nPreviously they had Germany on their side but I think Scholz is getting quieter and quieter.<\/p>\n

The question is what the US is communicating to Russia currently because they have an open communication channel while Ukraine does not.<\/p>\n

No one seriously believes it would have become WW3 if Ukraine had messed up the VDV at Kherson in 2022 so the US is on top of everything else a bit too pro-Russian here \u2013 too many consolation prizes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

When China sent troops to Belarus I think that idea that it would calm down fell flat.
\nThat Putin will jump on the Baltics if he thinks he can get away with it is also a poorly kept secret and the more submissive the US is the higher the risk of that.<\/p>\n

I have the impression that the US has previously been the ones pushing, they have escalated.
\nThe hatred of Russia from the US has been almost maniacal before.<\/p>\n

It is (I think \ud83d\ude00) something completely new that the US forces other countries not to defend themselves?
\nThe US can\u2019t possibly weigh the risk in Ukraine \u2013 one day Zelensky could be murdered and it will be total chaos.<\/p>\n

China in Belarus I think is a bright red flag.<\/p>\n

My bugout location is our land in Angola so we are self-sufficient forever and the kids survive but I\u2019m trying to make a point \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yep, \u201cunion of shahel\u201d has just come out and announced that all evil comes from the West and they are pro-Russian.<\/p>\n

That the West has left Africa to its fate I think is connected to recent years\u2019 anti-colonial discussions and our colonial legacy. No politician worth their name dares even suggest an intervention because then they are political roadkill.<\/p>\n

The irony is that all these organizations are completely silent when Russia and China neo-colonize the continent in the most brutal way possible.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Where I am they have swung to being pro-Russian over a year, an incredibly rapid radicalization and everyone is talking about the West\u2019s colonial policy right now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

Mozambique is suffering under China right now, the country that had a bright future is on the verge of collapse.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

You know what is needed now \u2013 that countries start choosing Gripen, Panther, Storm Shadow and other non-US weapons systems over the American ones.<\/p>\n

Then Biden will personally storm Moscow with the American flag in one hand and Washington\u2019s old sword in the other after the arms industry really lights the blowtorch.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Nick-the-Dick, but did you have apes, wild boars and anacondas in your bugout location \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Conscientious objectors \u2013 <\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, if Ukraine arranges it themselves, with their own or others\u2019 (not US) weapons, they probably don\u2019t mind kicking out the Russians. But not too fast or definitively, so that the Russian regime falls, because then they are afraid of chaos.\u201d<\/p>\n

That requires the US KNOWS that Ukraine can wage this war indefinitely over time, does the US know that?<\/p>\n

I think no one knows that which makes it high risk then reasonably.<\/p>\n

Then the US has a lot of opinions on everything down to individual offensives for Ukraine, micromanagement.<\/p>\n

What is the US strategy if Ukraine does not manage to kick out the Russians, Zelensky falls and the Russian steamroller gets going?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I would actually like to read their analyses because \u2013<\/p>\n

-there was no escalation from hitting 42 refineries, knocking out the Black Sea Fleet or invading Russia.
\n-there was also no escalation from hitting targets 100km inside Russian territory.<\/p>\n

-but there will be escalation if Ukraine is allowed to knock out aircraft over 100km inside Russian territory.<\/p>\n

To be completely honest I don\u2019t think they understand this themselves anymore \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:54 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Or it is as I suspect, that it is too close to the election and that they therefore do not dare to do the slightest thing that could be considered to increase the risk of escalation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Zelensky is the only one who speaks plainly as usual about Orban and he almost starts to sound like a father giving his teenage son good advice now in his messages to the leaders in the West.<\/p>\n

Good grief, what a total breakdown in strategic communication this has been from the West now for two days \ud83d\ude2d
\nLast year’s NATO meeting where they only managed to call Zelensky ungrateful was successful in comparison.<\/p>\n

Putin knows that his terror bombings are still protected and everything that can be moved at the northern front is now beyond the 100km line.<\/p>\n

He also knows that there will be no invasion of Russia so he can continue to have a half-hearted defense there and continue to focus on the occupied areas in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:41 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Yes, besides the 100km border, they have probably also forbidden Ukraine to cross the border with troops.<\/p>\n

Even if a perfect opportunity arises to enter Russia to make a smaller deployment of forces there in the north, they are probably tied hands.<\/p>\n

Like a boxer who can only keep his guard up and strike back with uppercuts when the opponent sticks out his chin.<\/p>\n

The idea seems to be that the opponent should tire himself out and then give up\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:02 \u2013 Johan No.1 Has Putin previously pushed peace proposals this hard (yes, it is a diabolical plan where he 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