{"id":9330,"date":"2024-07-16T10:30:21","date_gmt":"2024-07-16T08:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-07-16-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T11:59:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T09:59:03","slug":"2024-07-16-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-07-16-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-07-16"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Had a sour post in the works but I\u2019m waiting until Zelensky has visited the UK with all the EU leaders to see if he manages to project enough strength and be seen as a winner.<\/p>\n

JD Vance doesn\u2019t seem as dangerous as Nikki Haley (dangerous = winning for Trump), below he\u2019s already trash-talking the UK. With a bit of luck, this is a bigger mistake by Trump. Nikki Haley would have been a serious threat but maybe Putin ordered JD Vance, who knows?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/archrose90\/status\/1812975636996366350?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And now the Pentagon is stepping in and declaring that what the US fears most is an escalation \u2013 I think it has been communicated clearly enough now that the US is a cowardly and gun-shy street dog without integrity, so it\u2019s impossible for the BRIICS to understand.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1812894660366393667?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

China feels the US is so gun-shy now that they are imposing sanctions on the US for their aggressive support to Taiwan \u2013 the US is a damn joke right now that no one fears anymore \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxf6vae5es2f<\/a><\/p>\n

We said earlier that the biggest betrayal from the West was forcing new brigades to go first in an overconfidence in NATO training.
\nI was wrong, I realized, the biggest betrayal of all is probably that the West has made it absolutely clear to Putin that they pose no threat to him at all so he can deploy 100% of his army in Ukraine. A smart move would have been to force Putin to defend along all his land borders, right?<\/p>\n

But he doesn\u2019t even need to defend the northern front because he knows the West is stopping Ukraine from invading Russia or Belarus. Until winter 2023 there were a few dozen border guards from the FSB there and now he has 50,000 who have been halved, so it\u2019s not enough to hold a land border against an invasion directly.<\/p>\n

That reasonably means Putin has guarantees from the West (USA) about this, otherwise he would never have dared to take the risk. Moscow is a few days\u2019 drive away by road.<\/p>\n

Yesterday there was black magic and an ODP disappeared, his post when I pointed out that Zelensky is now dark enough to negotiate was something like \u201cyes, one can understand that Ukraine eventually gives up, how could they have any chance against the Russians and this was inevitable but well fought Ukraine\u201d. <\/p>\n

My answer was and is \u2013
\nRussia has lost 50% of the territory conquered in Ukraine and their entire contract army is wiped out, plus they have already had a serious coup attempt.
\nThe West, especially the USA and Germany, have actively sabotaged Ukraine since the start of the war.
\n-before the war started Germany and France promised that Russia would not attack so Zelensky had not mobilized the entire defense force in an effort not to escalate.
\n-after the war started Germany wanted Ukraine to give up land and stop being troublesome.
\n-until 2023 there was very little support, Germany\u2019s world-famous 5,000 steel helmets that they will be mocked for for thousands of years.
\n-in 2022 Ukraine was not allowed to encircle the VDV at Kherson when the opportunity arose, Zalizhny was forced to an alternative offensive that involved storming straight at the VDV instead of flanking them where Russia was weak.
\n-in 2023 they were not allowed to invade Russia when the border was held by a dozen FSB officers, they made two attempts and the West protested loudly, even Belgium.
\n-in 2023 they were not allowed to carry out the offensive they wanted, the West forced them to attack the best fortified area on the entire front and they wanted the \u201cNATO brigades\u201d to go first with the expected result. This can possibly be traced to overconfidence in the West\u2019s superiority.
\n-Spring 2023 \u2013 spring 2024 the West completely stopped delivering materiel. No one discusses this but it is absolutely huge and I think it was an attempt to get Zelensky to the negotiating table.
\n-in 2023 Ukraine was not allowed to destroy refineries or oil depots, or export terminals. When they made a first strike in Novorossiysk the West went completely crazy.
\n-in 2024 Ukraine was not allowed to invade Russia (I guess) even though they were 3:1 in numbers up at the northern front and had their best brigades there.
\n-in 2024 Ukraine was not allowed to destroy Russian air forces, Russia was communicated that everything beyond 100 km was off-limits so they could calmly move everything beyond the 100 km line and continue raining death on Ukraine\u2019s children.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile the West has done the following against Russia \u2013
\n-Russia strikes all targets in Ukraine, Kharkiv, children\u2019s hospitals, torture murders of small children, ethnic cleansing, castration of prisoners of war, murder of prisoners of war and daily rapes of prisoners of war for two years. The West\u2019s reactions compared to G\u2026a are striking, right? Russia gets a perfunctory slap on the wrist.
\n(The West could seriously have confiscated ALL assets Russia has in the West and imposed visa bans on ALL oligarchs and others involved in the war including their families who have access to the blood money because then they have traded in stolen goods which is a crime. The West could have imposed a no-fly zone or LV zone over western Ukraine OR the West could have sent enough LV and advanced aircraft long ago).
\n-Russia gets guarantees from the West for a bit of everything so they can sub-optimize, for example no troops at the northern border and no fear of being attacked along their land border at all so they can empty the whole country of units.
\n-Russia gets rockets and drones from North Korea, Iran and China which they shoot everywhere over Ukraine without being stopped or really discussed. China sends a lot through North Korea.
\n-Russia operates its shadow fleet for oil sales via the Baltic Sea even though it is sanctioned, unseaworthy and violates many laws and is environmentally hazardous.
\n-Russia sells all its oil to the EU via India (it\u2019s true \ud83d\ude10).
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/rnaudbertrand\/status\/1812722447390855207?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\n-Russia continues selling LNG to Europe, the EU is considering renewing the agreement after the turn of the year.
\n-Russia gets 70% of the parts for its rockets from the West.
\n-many companies in the West continue to operate in Russia without boycott like with South African or \u2026el goods back in the day.<\/p>\n

You can clearly see that the West has not made even half an effort for Ukraine here, right, and that a whole war has been rigged in Putin\u2019s favor but even that he has not managed to win.
\nThat\u2019s how reality actually looks, I have evidence for all the claims above \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

So what do the power relations look like in practice \u2013
\n-Russia is said to have 700,000 in Ukraine, that\u2019s the latest figure. That presumably does not include units along the northern front and the entire supply chain inside Russia. Russia seems to prioritize the northern front and then build offensive capability against the Baltics, and they have pulled brigades from Ukraine up to the northern front, so fewer than 700,000 now presumably.
\n-We have seen T54 tanks knocked out after attacks, MTLBs are starting to run short, IFVs are starting to run short and there are 700 tanks left in depots to be made operational.
\n-Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to recruit, the number of foreign soldiers is increasing and recruitment bonuses are on an exponentially rising curve.<\/p>\n

-At Urozaine, which Ukraine just lost, the attack was carried out with \u201cdozens of motorcycles\u201d \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxf757gfr22x<\/a><\/p>\n

-And there are increasing reports that RU is sending in wounded in combat.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxf6hhqgzn2d<\/a><\/p>\n

-The back is broken on the Russian artillery and they have now found 300 M46 artillery pieces, Putin has reshuffled the MoD and every Russian at the Dnieper longs for water.
\n-The entire Russian weapons platform is also inferior to the West\u2019s older weapons.
\n-China has started to advance positions and \u201cthrow under the bus\u201d is absolutely applicable as someone in the thread often writes.
\n-The Russian air force is the last branch that Ukraine has not reached and the USA has deliberately delayed deliveries of F-16s that could have arrived months ago and is preventing Ukraine from knocking out the air force at the bases \u2013 this is active obstruction from the USA and the Russian air force would already have been knocked out but is not.
\n-RU weapons production is laughably small, we have gone through this several times and the best they have are modified older vehicles that become T90M, some new production of T90M but most have been modifications.<\/p>\n

-Ukraine has 1,250,000 in its armed forces and 2,500,000 in the mobilizable reserve.
\n-Now the question is what has actually been delivered but last time I checked they had received 12,000 hard vehicles, IFVs, ATGM carriers, APCs and tanks.
\n-The strategic bombing campaign has been won by Ukraine \u2013 RU missiles and drones are shot down in large numbers and UA operations are largely successful and over 2000 km deep into Russia.
\nSabotage is ongoing all over Russia all the time, substations, railway networks and fires of various kinds.
\nThe strategic bombing campaign has shifted from refineries to oil depots, ammunition depots and the weapons industry such as the factory that made gearboxes for hard vehicles or a factory that produces propellant charges for ammunition. And in Russia it is the only factory that makes such with their centralization.
\n-UA resource allocation is also increasing, they will soon get advanced aircraft and now have access to all weapon systems RU has.
\n-The West has launched huge modification programs of MBTs in five different models and they have started producing generation 5 MBTs and new generation ATGMs and IFVs.
\n-Ukraine now has its own weapons industry worth 20 billion USD annually, for example Bohdana wheeled howitzers 8 per month and their BTR4.
\nThey also have modification programs where all BMP-1s and older BTRs get new weapon stations.
\nThey have licensed production of M113 and HUMVEE where they also mount weapon stations.
\nVoluntary Russian units and newly formed mechanized brigades have received newer fragmentation protection such as BTR-4 turrets on older BTR vehicles and Marder IFVs.
\n-And Ukraine has newly formed 13 \u2013 18 brigades with slightly different start times, the oldest since spring 2023.<\/p>\n

This is actually how it looks and so far China has not dared to send offensive weapons to Russia.
\nSo why is the defeatist mood starting to spread?
\nWhy should there be peace negotiations this fall?
\nBecause the USA wants it is probably the sad answer.<\/p>\n

So \u2013
\n-Why aren\u2019t there already a dozen brigades from the EU in the Baltics?
\n-Why doesn\u2019t Finland constantly train its entire armed forces right up to the Russian border?
\n-Why hasn\u2019t the USA flown its strategic bombers to bases in Germany?
\n-Why doesn\u2019t NATO\u2019s fleet constantly exercise in the Baltic Sea?
\n-Why doesn\u2019t Japan send landing ships against Russia (but in international waters) near Vladivostok as someone in the thread suggested already in 2022?<\/p>\n

All this the West could do without effort but instead they have made it clear to Russia that NATO and the West are no threat at all.<\/p>\n

Russia has thus completely emptied its bases along the border with Finland, the Baltics, China and far in the Far East \u2013 there is basically nothing left.<\/p>\n

Because the USA wants it is probably the sad answer here as well.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m starting to lean towards wanting Trump as president because then maybe we can get to the point where Ukraine and the EU free themselves from the USA and accelerate.
\nThat Russia cannot win the war we already know and when you have read the above you also understand that they have only managed to hold on in Ukraine with the USA\u2019s ACTIVE help \u2013 this whole war has been rigged in Putin\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n

-If Ukraine can knock out FAB bombs and carry out its own CAS campaign then this war will soon be won.
\n-The Black Sea Fleet is already neutralized.
\n-Russian artillery loses every day in counter-battery fire.
\n-Ukraine today has the advantage in drone weapons.
\n-Their maneuver brigades are resourced and mechanized with equipment that far exceeds RU.<\/p>\n

And RU is increasingly moving towards units of 1000 strong that are infantry, if you see this with storm companies you should, like me, ask \u2013 where is the fragmentation protection and tank support?
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxf7amf5wk2f<\/a><\/p>\n

It has taken a long time to understand the USA\u2019s betrayal here but virtually the entire EU seems to be on Zelensky\u2019s side in this because they have all given permission to use their weapons on Russian soil, and then been forced to withdraw the permission by the USA.<\/p>\n

Some have even gone so far as to say that we will never see mechanized combat again in this war because drone weapons would stop all that, so here is Erik14 for you (not with Erik14 in mechanized combat which probably would have been a sight but a link he posted).<\/p>\n

Others have gone so far as to say that there will be frozen fronts with WW1 trench warfare and that Ukraine therefore can never regain its land.<\/p>\n

None of that is true.<\/p>\n

Here a unit is conducting mechanized combat without dying to drone death and they manage combined arms warfare. The only thing missing is probably some JDAMS but they have started dropping those now.
\nhttps:\/\/mstdn.social\/@noelreports\/112792309280171309<\/a><\/p>\n

If the Gordian knot with the USA can be unlocked we will absolutely have an offensive in 2024 and it will be mechanized combat, mark my words, and Ukraine will win this war by complete knockout.<\/p>\n

But so far the USA has effectively made this impossible for Ukraine even though the temperature is starting to rise quite a bit now and the USA\u2019s position today is completely unreasonable.<\/p>\n

If you remember autumn 2023 someone in the thread declared that the war was lost for RU provided the West was not talked down by Putin. We are dangerously close to that now and it was a critical situation last autumn but let\u2019s hope Zelensky manages to find a way forward here.
\nOrban has succeeded surprisingly well unfortunately.<\/p>\n

Giving Putin such a cheat win would have consequences for the entire world order and at least I, living in Sweden, am quite happy that we are at the top of the pyramid.<\/p>\n

Africa will also be quite happy when Wagner and China eventually disappear and more and more countries get fair trade agreements with the EU.<\/p>\n

Waiting until the meeting in the UK before I burst out positive-positive again.<\/p>\n

Some who have no reason to be positive are the war\u2019s second most zeroed units who have now been moved from the Dnieper front up to the northern front and are getting epic beatings for the fourth or fifth time \u2013 810th Marine Infantry \ud83e\udd23
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/atesh_eng\/status\/1812751452819079340?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

so it is impossible to MISUNDERSTAND for BRIICS.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Buy shares in the manufacturer of Storm Shadow and maybe sell shares in the manufacturer of Taurus?<\/p>\n

Zelensky and the EU must break away from the US strategy \u2013 the US communicates its street dog cowardice almost daily now which is directly embarrassing.<\/p>\n

Movements are underway and we will see what the meeting in the UK yields but don’t forget that the West completely stopped sending ammunition for a whole year here and even a Ukrainian has difficulty fighting with only a sharpened spade and knife.<\/p>\n

After WW2 there was a 10-year-long guerrilla war in Ukraine and also in Poland and the Baltic states there were rebels for many years who fought but over time RU managed to break the countries’ backs.<\/p>\n

Ukraine needs the West’s support and the EU needs to pursue its own line that is best for us. The US is not our friend just like the bank.<\/p>\n

It is thus Zelensky himself who has announced that a peace proposal will be prepared by November and that Putin must attend.<\/p>\n

Ukraine’s existential struggle has been ongoing since 2022 and they have constantly been forced to do what the US wants.
\nI am guessing now but I think even EU membership has been used as pressure.<\/p>\n

The negotiation is probably like this \u2013
\nUA gives up territory X
\nUA gets to join the EU and join NATO.
\nPeace agreement is signed and Biden or Trump stands on the airplane stairs waving a signed paper and exclaims “peace in our time” without understanding the irony of it all.<\/p>\n

After 2-5 years Ukraine still hasn’t joined NATO, the country is in huge economic trouble, Russian subversive activities are on steroids, Ukraine’s EU membership is slowwalked, their president dies of food poisoning and the Red Army 2.0 attacks Ukraine again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:26 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I agree with you on everything except that about Trump. If I had to decide I wouldn\u2019t dare put him as president even if it might make Europe wake up for real. Maybe it will be the opposite, that people give up and try to stay on good terms with him.
\nThere aren\u2019t many leaders in Europe I think dare go against him.<\/p>\n

Then we hardly have any weapons that don\u2019t have something from the US in them. It will take enormous time if you want to free yourself completely in case he puts a complete stop.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, I might have taken it to the extreme there but I am quite angry at the US now \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Good heavens no, look at what is in the EU warehouses, we can win the war ourselves. It is then about ignoring everything and sending the US weapons we have anyway whether the US approves or not.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Zakharova and Lavrov have landed in New York, the US is really going all out with the heavy gloves.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/runews\/status\/1813090067604557976?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK57976<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A train with T54 on the way to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/bayraktar_1love\/status\/1813263772041003443?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Not easy to be outside consensus.<\/p>\n

For me I waited for F-16 and an offensive into Russia and when the US actively stopped and sabotaged this it was enough.<\/p>\n

Zelensky has also during late autumn 2023 and 2024 revealed all the betrayal \u2013 just that is interesting. Until then it was all guesses.<\/p>\n

For me the stated reason is a pretext and the US has a hidden purpose. However, the mocking radar is now on about cowardly street dog.<\/p>\n

That purpose we can sit and guess but this is no longer the Gulf War US.<\/p>\n

Ships are being damaged in the Red Sea all the time and the US has left a walkover despite their coalition to protect the Red Sea \u2013 not only in Ukraine thus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

It is called MISINTERPRETATION and some engage in that, and now also you apparently.<\/p>\n

The US have failed Ukraine \u2013 we have Zelensky himself confirming that.<\/p>\n

You are just interested in US politics and that Biden is the better choice, as so many others in here are.
\nAnd in doing so you, and others, are failing Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Only the fact that Biden is ACTIVELY stopping Sweden, UK, Netherlands and Denmark from sending fighter jets to Ukraine when they were ready AND preventing Ukraine from striking into Russia should be enough for you, and many others, to no longer support Biden.
\nWe have the US themselves confirming this several times so nothing is speculation.<\/p>\n

In your, and others’, support for Biden as the better choice you are failing Ukraine \u2013 but you fail to see that in your support for Biden.<\/p>\n

My suggestion would be that you, and others, tone down your rabid belief that the US is supporting us in the EU and Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The US is also leaving a walkover in the Red Sea, they had an initiative to stop the Houthi but ships are exploding as we speak.<\/p>\n

So likewise, no love lost for you or others that put Biden before Ukraine.<\/p>\n

This was for all those who support Biden before Ukraine \u2013 you should all be ashamed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

If you criticize the US any longer for all the crap they have done, you are apparently radical.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

And now I don\u2019t mean that Trump is better of course but I mean that regardless of president the US has betrayed Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:46 \u2013 Johan No.1 Had a sour post in the works but I\u2019m waiting until Zelensky has visited the UK 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