{"id":9340,"date":"2024-07-20T09:29:14","date_gmt":"2024-07-20T07:29:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-07-20-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T12:01:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T10:01:40","slug":"2024-07-20-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-07-20-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-07-20"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The last words from a Ukrainian soldier \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/vinokcollective\/status\/1814029417905103320?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The legend Zelensky has called Trump and discussed the Ukraine war with him \u2013 remember at the beginning he was completely overwhelmed to speak before some parliament and now he calls a US presidential candidate and holds the baton and massages Trump lightly. He has taken on his role as the Churchill of our time well and according to his own account the conversation went well with Trump which is interesting. If nothing else, Trump currently looks more like a Ukraine supporter than Biden where the last we heard was about everything Ukraine was NOT allowed to do so that they couldn\u2019t win the war. Kirby and Sullivan could hardly have been clearer and the Pentagon chipped in just so there would be no misunderstanding.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxp5mvr7bs2p<\/a><\/p>\n

I maintain that if Biden in action would show that he wanted to go after the arch-communists and respect international law, it could have been his election winner because sensible GOP would then have a reason to vote for him. Now that won\u2019t happen and the question now is when Trump understands that this is an election-winning issue and makes a complete turnaround on the issue and goes to Ukraine to shake hands with Zelensky.
\nDavid D describes Biden\u2019s inactivity well, I think.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1813943772864041105?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1813574028122034270?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And above all, Biden could send hundreds of F-16s and thousands of Abrams and Bradleys NOW before Trump takes office \u2013 these are executive decisions he can make or alternatively allow countries in the EU to send everything they have so Ukraine wins the war \u2013 but he doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

If we are starting to get a bit resigned, then guess how it is to be Zelensky and be constantly disappointed for over two years. The only time I\u2019ve seen him lose his mask was when Bulgaria was in some meeting and was Bulgarian-arrogant with him. Ukraine is not a homogeneous organism with infinite energy and patience. It is several million people who every day are subjected to enormous stress, terrible messages, and constant disappointments. The tip must work and the shaft must work. The longer time goes, the greater the risk of collapse. There are not many countries that have managed to hold together while being invaded with a high-intensity war for several years \u2013 2.5 years is a long time. Practice for the thread, which countries have succeeded as well as Ukraine under similar conditions and without getting enough support?<\/p>\n

Zelensky is noticeably tired.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/saintjavelin\/status\/1814343644813410351<\/a><\/p>\n

And the defector Scholz does not deny himself \ud83d\ude21
\nThe man of the 5000 steel helmets will be his legacy in history and that he fooled Zelensky that Russia would not attack in February 2022, and then immediately thought that Ukraine should give up land for peace.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/Maks_NAFO_FELLA\/status\/1814211317361774643<\/a><\/p>\n

Considering the Russian losses since autumn 2023, the war has been high-intensity without interruption since last autumn basically.
\nSpeaking of barbaric losses, they are starting to go down, UA has previously said that July will be tough so the question is if the Russian team is starting to get sluggish and tired now, we\u2019ll see during the week if it goes up again otherwise the Russian offensive has peaked.<\/p>\n

As I have previously aired, I don\u2019t for a second believe that Ukraine and the West have several years and that the big strokes must be painted in 2024. The reason for that is that I doubt the West\u2019s leaders\u2019 endurance and honesty.
\nWhat we never discuss \u2013 that the West stopped sending materiel for a year, hopefully historians will manage to figure out what caused that betrayal.
\nKier Starmer has however proven to be a good prime minister for the UK and Zelensky got to sit in on a cabinet meeting which apparently rarely happens. Again, an attempt was made with Storm Shadow which was shot down so points for trying to do the right thing at least for Kier.<\/p>\n

Large attack on Milerovo in Rostov, military airfield and SU25 attack aircraft. 16 explosions were heard and according to Surtrutn\u2019s FIRMS link there is fire on the parking areas and in the ammunition depots.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxoxovpsjo2u<\/a><\/p>\n

What is interesting is that such a frontline airbase does not have better air defense.
\n16 drones also work well now that Biden stops all other weapons from being used where they do damage.<\/p>\n

Russia reluctantly admits that Ukraine has complete drone superiority.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxpadjtgxa2p<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine has received extensive amphibious capability, a huge stock of body armor, ammunition and now F-16s are supposed to come but they are being held back. They have also mobilized what they need for the maneuver brigades and have an offensive reserve of 13-16 brigades.
\nWe can only hope we are in the eye of the storm and that Ukraine is standing and doing squats in the rear as usual.
\nThat it is opsec indicates that some kind of operation is being prepared.<\/p>\n

2023 was Wagner\u2019s death at Bakhmut and the army at Vuhledar that gave Ukraine the opening for a spring offensive.
\nNow 2024 the Russians have attacked almost everywhere and far beyond their sustainable capacity \u2013 having lost 245,000+ plus over 30% in non-combat related injuries plus what has not been reported since November 2023 means the tip is depleted. It is namely at the tip losses are taken and in the Russian army reverse Darwinism prevails.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine had retreated everywhere it would be time to try to sugarcoat it a bit but they have prepared a huge offensive blow up at the northern front and are holding well on other fronts.
\nThey also have an offensive reserve that they have not yet touched of 13-16 brigades.
\nAnd the ammunition has now arrived at the fronts so UA will soon be on par in artillery fire again. The last time that happened was the spring offensive 2023.
\n-That RU is heading towards a low point is indisputable.
\n-That UA has rested and resourced the maneuver brigades since autumn 2023 is indisputable (because that is what you do when they are not fighting)
\n-That the West has now delivered huge amounts of body armor and ammunition is also indisputable.<\/p>\n

There is not much more to write about, the USA is very clear in its position, the EU supports Ukraine in words but not in action and the FAB bomb dispensers stand unchallenged at all airbases Ukraine is not allowed to attack.<\/p>\n

We have previously discussed that F-16 is the critical line and they are actively being held back and that the FAB bomb dispensers make larger movements on the battlefields impossible.<\/p>\n

Wagner collapsed at Bakhmut and now the entire Russian army is involved in Bakhmut-style advances. So we can only hope the army turns its weapons inward \u2013 but unfortunately the US does not want that.<\/p>\n

As is well known, I am a big fan of traditions, in our family for Christmas, Easter and other holidays we have only built on a little that fits 2024 but kept everything that the parents learned from their parents, who learned from theirs and so on. Christmas is probably the holiday where what we do goes back the furthest
\nBirthdays are singing and early breakfast in bed before school, toast with mimosa salad and ham, chocolate, tea and Ballerina cookies. The chocolate cake with cream, arrack and candles is ready but eaten after dinner \u2013 just as it was celebrated during my childhood in the 70s and the kids are just as excited as I was and pretend to sleep.
\nToday the discussion is no longer that our elected officials don\u2019t think wishing Merry Christmas is appropriate but how traditions arise.
\nWe understood quite quickly that if you have run a concept for two years with children who are 5-6 years old then it is already a tradition they have done their whole life.
\nOn the subject, I think this was very funny how a tradition arises and excuse this big off topic.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxp66mxb2t2o<\/a><\/p>\n

Russia’s largest LNG 2 is about to crash.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/bricktop_nafo\/status\/1813741323171561710?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nWe also read yesterday that RU is selling LNG to Iran at a 75% discount.
\nSince we have a positive bias towards Russia after Putin put his foot down, it is most likely much worse in the country.
\nGas stations in Rostov Oblast are empty, for example \u2013 if refinery production had only dropped 16% and then all exports stopped, I don’t think it would have caused fuel shortages in large refinery oblasts like Rostov.<\/p>\n

This one from Eldposten was very interesting, fire and movement and that movement is prevented by drones even for the artillery.
\nNow the drones’ range is getting longer, so longer artillery range will even out, but wheeled howitzers should be the future.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/GrandpaRoy2\/status\/1812216437257519198<\/a>
\nThen you can have movement to the extent that you have more firing positions hidden that you switch between so the opposing team never knows which of the six vehicles is in.
\nBut right now we see everywhere how RU artillery becomes permanent and they try to strengthen protection and that JDAMS arrive at the fronts \u2013 no protection can withstand JDAMS.<\/p>\n

Stuff like this is always fun to read \u2013 90% of Russians will go against Putin according to UA spokesperson.
\nWhat IS interesting, however, is that the milbloggers have started criticizing the war again on a large scale, reading more and more now. Someone is behind them because they all know that poisoned boxer shorts are the rule for such things.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1814382209744404796?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:55 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Please, not even ironically can you come and claim that Trump would be better for Ukraine than Biden. You sound like the worst vatnik who has fallen for Russian propaganda! \ud83d\ude31<\/p>\n

Apart from that, thanks for a good and well-written essay! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Have I written that?<\/p>\n

Where have I written that, please quote.<\/p>\n

Or do we have to completely ignore that Biden actively sabotages Ukraine because he is a better alternative than Trump?<\/p>\n

Biden has betrayed Ukraine and if you can’t see that, then you probably don’t support Ukraine either.<\/p>\n

The only one stopping F-16s from arriving on time is Biden.
\nThe only one ensuring that FAB bombs continue to bury children alive is Biden.
\nThe only one preventing Ukraine from striking high-value targets in Russia with weapons that don’t even come from the US is Biden.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:21 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Maybe I misinterpreted:<\/p>\n

“If nothing else, Trump right now looks more like a supporter of Ukraine than Biden”<\/p>\n

Apologies if so.<\/p>\n

Biden could have done much more than he has (still quite upset with him for not using lend-lease when he had the chance) but even if he is cowardly, I think he is doing quite well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:25 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Then I think he lets others guide his decisions. Trump didn’t manage to push through nuking a hurricane last time, but if he comes to power again I don’t think he will let anyone stop him no matter how childish his ideas are.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

It almost feels like we are sacrificing some on the altar of goodness when it comes to Biden here.<\/p>\n

The US and Germany have actively sabotaged Ukraine throughout the war and they deserve hell for that.<\/p>\n

We can reasonably assume that Trump is not better, probably worse, BUT WE ARE NOT THERE YET.<\/p>\n

It is still Joe Biden who is destroying Ukraine where he can and he is at the helm until November.<\/p>\n

Right now it is absolutely urgent, 2024 is about to slip away from us because F-16s and FAB bombs are being sabotaged.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

Then I\u2019m with you \u2013 since Zelensky called him and he hasn\u2019t talked to Biden, Trump seems more of a supporter of Ukraine right now.<\/p>\n

Not that I personally think so.<\/p>\n

But we can probably trust that Trump will turn this to his advantage, and the same with Orban.<\/p>\n

When it should be Joe Biden shaking hands with Zelensky and saying now you can bomb Moscow to pieces with all our weapons \u2013 go for it.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s what I meant \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think he is cowardly \u2013 I think it\u2019s US strategy and that \u201cavoiding escalation\u201d is an excuse.
\nThey have a hidden motive that we can keep guessing about.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

Yep and the US will turn inward, as we want Russia to do.<\/p>\n

EU should already prepare for the US going to zero and we will have to sort out this mess ourselves.<\/p>\n

BUT then maybe we will reach the point where the EU no longer lets itself be stopped by the US \u2013 and that would be an improvement over today.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:37 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

If Trump wins we\u2019ll see what happens. I\u2019ll gladly come back with a big apology in a year or so if it turns out he wins and then does more for Ukraine than Biden has.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:42 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

Ah, ok!<\/p>\n

If Trump wins I hope someone manages to convince him that the best thing he can do is help Ukraine. I don\u2019t think it will happen because the whole MAGA cult is against it but if it does, he might go all-in.<\/p>\n

Maybe there\u2019s something behind that we don\u2019t know about but outwardly it looks like cowardice. Maybe we\u2019ll see it turn after the election if Biden wins.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:45 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

Really hope the US doesn\u2019t collapse. At least not before Russia does.<\/p>\n

Regardless, we in the EU must realize that the \u201cworld police\u201d can no longer be trusted and that we ourselves must take the lead and do what we think is right. Totally agree with you there!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

I don\u2019t think he will do that.<\/p>\n

However, the EU will distance itself from the US and go its own way, so overall it will be better for Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

As usual, I\u2019m mocking \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Of course there are nuances but Schr\u00f6der is well connected with Russian contacts and some old Stasi agent was the top dog in Nordstream?<\/p>\n

In 1989 and reunification, it was supposed to be done in the gentlest possible way which meant that the administration that the year before had been partly under Soviet control would be incorporated into Germany\u2019s administration even if higher politicians were prosecuted.<\/p>\n

Which practically meant that some East Germans a few years later had jobs in the administration and politics of united Germany?<\/p>\n

Since they were now reunited and the hated STASI was gone, it perhaps wasn\u2019t appropriate to start STASI2 and monitor all East Germans?<\/p>\n

There must have been a lot of room to have \u201csleeping\u201d pro-Russians in the German administration and politics, I think, because they weren\u2019t even harsh with former STASI agents and in 2009 some newspaper reviewed how many had gotten jobs in the West and it was a considerable number.<\/p>\n

Then former pro-Russian individuals could start working in the private sector and gain influence, not everything is politics or administration \u2013 there is a private sector as well.<\/p>\n

Right or wrong, it is my belief that Germany’s actions in this war are because they are still struggling with a Russian infiltration that was made possible through reunification and West Germany’s goodwill.<\/p>\n

My guesses.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

As president of the USA, one is (so far) dependent on getting the Senate and House of Representatives on board, so you can’t just do whatever you want, but Biden could still have done much more.<\/p>\n

When it comes to Isr@el, there have been no problems. Even if troops were not deployed, they have been really quick to support\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

This is actually a very tightrope to walk and the silver medal is worthless.
\nThere are also quite a few layers to the onion.<\/p>\n

We have only done enough when Russia leaves Ukraine, and it was actually the USA that already in 2001 started training UA officers in the USA, and in 2014 launched all the programs to transform the UA armed forces into what they are today.<\/p>\n

The EU did quite little between 2014 \u2013 2022 with some exceptions.<\/p>\n

It was also the USA that warned Ukraine that there would be war in 2022, and Germany and France that convinced Ukraine that Russia would not attack, so the brigades remained in barracks at the start of the war.<\/p>\n

It was also the EU that between 2014 \u2013 until today has helped Russia by selling them weapons components and buying their oil and LNG to finance the rearmament.<\/p>\n

I believe the USA has been less involved in that but don’t feel like googling.<\/p>\n

Then the USA has become the biggest brake block and now it is starting to get a bit urgent. Countries in the EU have shown willingness to let Ukraine win but the USA steps in and stops that physically which is quite worrying.<\/p>\n

It is worrying for the reason that if we reach the point where Ukraine can no longer hold on and agrees to negotiate away land for peace now, then the march towards a global conflict has begun \u2013 I guess.<\/p>\n

That is the risk all the somewhat passive leaders choose to accept because I can almost promise that there is no living person now who can guarantee that Ukraine can endure several more years of high-intensity war \u2013 we simply do not know when the limit is reached for UA or when the FSB manages to assassinate Zelensky.<\/p>\n

So I agree with you here \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:58 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Yes, of course we must become even better and not close our eyes to the mistakes.
\nBut you who usually are positive probably also know that you can’t win if you only focus on the negative or the mistakes you have made.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:22 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

Hope so!\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Huge warning \u2013 Russian with wounds crawling with maggots.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1814656141747536125?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Some Tannenberg vibes.<\/p>\n

And DO NOT open if you don’t want to see infected wounds.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:58 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Silly of the soldier to slack off like that, a few pets have never hurt anyone. He and his buddies will probably soon have to crawl back to the front where they can crawl around in the trenches again.<\/p>\n

(What? No, the war has not made me insensitive and without empathy at all!)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

Yes, there are reasons why I am a bit negative \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The comments \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Do you think his favorite show on Netflix was Larva?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:53 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Sure, Larva probably has dialogue he can keep up with too?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Winter 2023 half of the nuclear power in Europe was offline but winter 2024 it was not exposed. However, sabotage against the arms industry has started.<\/p>\n

In 2025 they have taken out UA’s electrical infrastructure and in 2023 UA sold electricity to the EU.
\nHungary, Slovakia and Serbia will also buy electricity from the EU now that they have been cut off.
\nThe LNG stocks in the EU are easy targets for sabotage, does anyone think they are drone-secured?
\nNuclear power might get a few more forgotten wrenches.<\/p>\n

The big thing I seem to see, however, is popular protests.
\nWhen Macron went hard against Putin, there was an uprising in Caledonia and on the streets in France left, right and Islamists clashed.<\/p>\n

Now Kier Starmer has gone hard and there are riots in several places in England.<\/p>\n

I have long thought that is the threat Putin conveys \u2013 if you go against me you will get a hell of a domestic political situation because I activate right, left and Islamists as well as your opposition party \u2013 try to stay in power if you can.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
17:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

It is my favorite show on Netflix \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

There is quite a lot we do not know and then quite a lot we do know.
\nF-16 and taking out FAB bomb dispensers we believe is the critical line \u2013 no air means no offensive.<\/p>\n

UA has received enormous amounts of shrapnel protection since the turn of the year, boats, mine clearance, ammunition and they have mobilized. Since autumn 2023, most of their brigades have not fought but have been wilded, trained and equipped.<\/p>\n

UA has an offensive reserve and they can go on the offensive but if F-16 and FAB bomb dispensers are stopped maybe they do not dare to risk it.<\/p>\n

Why are F-16 stopped and why are they not allowed to take out FAB bomb dispensers \u2013 this is important to me because it turns my whole worldview upside down right now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:07 \u2013 Johan No.1 The last words from a Ukrainian soldier \ud83d\ude10 https:\/\/x.com\/vinokcollective\/status\/1814029417905103320?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w The legend Zelensky has called Trump and 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