{"id":9350,"date":"2024-07-24T09:59:22","date_gmt":"2024-07-24T07:59:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-07-24-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T12:02:57","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T10:02:57","slug":"2024-07-24-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-07-24-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-07-24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Yesterday we found out that the massive bombing of the Tuapse refinery was an attempt to drone three (3) refineries but the drones were shot down \u2013 the Russians have slowly started learning to shoot down large slow-moving targets 100m up in the air, well done, really\u2026 But that means the effect of this type of drone then decreases \u2013 means and countermeasures in the constant whack-a-mole that clearly shows how fleeting an advantage is.<\/p>\n

This one from Sirsky was interesting, so we\u2019ll take it as truth for a while.
\nRU is said to have;
\n690k barbarians in UA at the turn of the year (520,000 now), as usual we guess that is the total. I recall it was 750k in the last count and if it is now going down to 690k then it has decreased during RU offensive operations.<\/p>\n

3500 tanks, that is probably in line with what we thought earlier but then there was some intermediate figure that was lower. My guess is that the intermediate figure was wrong. Since there are 700 left in storage that can be made operational, we now have a total figure + new production that is surprisingly small.
\nThe number of T54-55 and T62 must be considerable among these and also unmodified T72s. A total of about 800 T62s would be upgraded, they have sent unmodified T55, T62 and T72 to the fronts. <\/p>\n

8500 IFVs include MTLB, BRDM2, BTR-40, BTR-60 and so on but it is still a considerable amount. Since 15,980 have been knocked out and they would have a few thousand left in storage, and 8500 at the fronts, the question is whether this adds up but we also have to take that figure as truth for a while.<\/p>\n

All this is divided among the different fronts and since the northern front has been added, there is less in Ukraine than before.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxz5nerdwc2o<\/a><\/p>\n

As a comparison, UA would have around 1500 Strv 2023 and now they have 1800 so the number is lower than RU but the tanks are better, they have better crews and are part of combined units. The obvious example is the Russians\u2019 Leonardo-da-Vinci tanks that have ceased to be a fighting vehicle.<\/p>\n

Then we move on to RU tank production capacity and it is interesting that new production is around 30\/year but when Ukraine captured a newly manufactured one, the gun barrel was from 1992.
\nWe know from before that what is presented as new production is largely a remanufacture of an older T90 but that even \u201cgenuinely\u201d newly manufactured ones may not have new gun barrels is interesting.
\nThis aligns with RU only being able to produce 100 gun barrels total per year and that the factory has now been droned. But of course that does not prevent China from delivering gun barrels in the future, right.
\nProduction per year of tanks is thus non-existent and we have a total figure for the RU tank fleet of under 4500 tanks.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxz6qvttzk2p<\/a><\/p>\n

When it comes to tanks, Russia has already lost the race, we can probably conclude that considering the large remanufacturing programs ongoing in the EU right now and new production of the Germans\u2019 Panther that is underway as well as Korea\u2019s K2. But of course, that depends on China not starting to deliver tanks, which they have so far refrained from. A pillar on the whack-a-mole that Ukraine has permanently managed to knock down.<\/p>\n

But, this is still a formidable opponent and as long as Ukraine does not get to fight on equal terms it is not the easiest. Since RU knows where Ukraine can and cannot act, there is a string of army bases, at least 12, with enormous staging areas for tanks and armored vehicles right on the Russian side of the border to Ukraine and from there the next equipped units are brought forward or units in Ukraine get replacement tanks.<\/p>\n

For quite a while, Ukraine was not even allowed to use its own weapons to strike targets in Russia, there was a huge fuss when they tested against the oil terminal in Novorossiysk.
\nImagine if Ukraine got to rain ATACMS over these staging areas. It\u2019s enough for a tungsten bullet to go through the engine pack and that tank won\u2019t go anywhere.
\nThis one is from before the war started (how could Germany and France promise Zelensky that Putin would not attack, by the way?) and serves as an example of how it looks; the bases have really only grown and become permanent since the war started.
\nhttps:\/\/news.sky.com\/story\/whats-going-on-at-russian-military-bases-near-ukraine-12521842<\/a><\/p>\n

1000 Colombians fight on Ukraine\u2019s side.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/TOGAjano21\/status\/1815733243439661277<\/a><\/p>\n

This one is worrying, RU reaction time is getting shorter \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxzjelddvh2k<\/a><\/p>\n

UA losses
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/zlatti_71\/status\/1815124134038290796?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Always expected this to happen when whales surface with lots of small boats with tourists.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ClownWorld_\/status\/1815799006267859376<\/a><\/p>\n

Words and no mincing, he did what everyone thinks.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/interneth0f\/status\/1815409016446554303?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

A very Finnish answer and similar \u201cthey are to the left, to the right, in front of us and behind \u2013 this time they won\u2019t get away\u201d.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1815489580172533973?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I have pushed my thumbs to the limit here in my attempts to start a revolution, which is harder than you think \ud83d\ude32, so in an attempt to send an olive branch and break the negative death spiral, there will be a second post today dedicated to The eldest in the thread who today gets four thumbs up for being early and commenting a lot \ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Ukraine has never asked for Western citizens to die in war, all they ask for is weapons to throw out Russia with and to be allowed to fight according to international law and the law of nations. A big free bonus for us is that we don\u2019t have to die and can live in peace for the next 80 years until everyone forgets and a new global conflict starts up.<\/p>\n

Finland had exactly the same difficulty during the Winter War and Continuation War and their decision to coexist with Germany in WW2 partly isolated them during the Cold War.<\/p>\n

To be realistic, I don\u2019t think the West cares enough because Ukraine is a peripheral country just like Finland, if Finland had fallen it would not have affected the big movements (one thinks).<\/p>\n

The answer may be that politicians cannot think many steps ahead and are unwilling to make difficult decisions. And in the end, the decision-making power lies with the politicians.<\/p>\n

And one can also, as a potential enemy, cultivate contacts among politicians so that decisions become impossible to make because they are voted down or one wants to make changes to absurdity.<\/p>\n

Every country\u2019s Chief of Defence has a job description to ensure that national defense is adequate and the higher the threat level (imagined threat of Russia that Putin successfully manages to project) the more you have to increase national defense. You then have to buy new capability on the international market and your own defense industry goes to own use first \u2013 Ukraine has long complained that they are last in line to buy weapons from the world\u2019s arms manufacturers despite having cash.<\/p>\n

Weapons manufacturers just want to make money and Ukraine is a customer on credit, so they prefer to sell to cash-rich Western countries.<\/p>\n

For everyone except Poland, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states, and Finland, this is not a big deal yet, and we see this in how different countries have acted throughout the war.<\/p>\n

My experience with Portugal, after having it as a second country for a long time, is that they don’t give anything away for free, so there was some surprise when they did, but for them the war is very distant. It’s small coffee and wine at lunch that applies there.<\/p>\n

Yes, those of us who sound like scratched records about the post-WW2 world order being at stake are becoming somewhat tiresome.<\/p>\n

And yes, even a country like Angola, which had a war for 35 years, functions today so the zombie apocalypse never arrives.<\/p>\n

But do we really want to give up our position at the top of the pyramid and hand over the baton to China and Russia?<\/p>\n

More and more countries in Africa will stop selling raw materials to the West, this is a steamroller that is starting to gain momentum now as China and Russia control more and more countries’ decision-makers. West Africa is first out. Do we need their raw materials or do we have everything within Europe’s borders, or will we have to buy more expensively from the USA?
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kxzjnyixyq26<\/a><\/p>\n

We have placed our manufacturing in China so our production base is lower and especially in the EU tomorrow’s civilian high technology is conspicuously absent. It is China that is driving electric cars, battery storage, meltdown-proof nuclear power, and solar cells right now, and they are investing in wind power in Sweden.
\nIn 2008 the PIIGS were hit hard as China had learned to copy their industry and sell the same products cheaper, and if you go by Northvolt’s statements, they feel hunted by China and that was our big industrial investment in 2024.<\/p>\n

If China manufactures a Royal Navy every other year \u2013 how many warships does the EU manufacture every other year?<\/p>\n

China is not completely clueless, they have recruited retired RAF pilots who train their pilots and it is only now starting to be seen as a problem in the UK.
\nhttps:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/10\/17\/world\/europe\/china-recruit-uk-military-pilots.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Yes, we laugh ourselves hoarse over Russia as a raw material colony but paired with China’s production base and BRIICS (in the future 40 countries are in line) purchasing power, you should not wave this away.<\/p>\n

There are big geopolitical movements right now. It has been no secret for many years what China\u2019s and Russia\u2019s endgame is \u2013 they have been very clear.<\/p>\n

Sometimes rhetorically someone asks if our politicians don\u2019t understand what the thread understands, or the comment comes that we in the thread understand nothing and that our politicians always do the right thing.<\/p>\n

I present the USA \u2013 does it feel organized and well-planned over there right now?
\nOr France?<\/p>\n

Yes, a war with Russia is an unpleasantly big step to take and being restrained can seem attractive, and we all feel sorry for Ukraine, really.<\/p>\n

Only that Russia is already at war with us both in words and actions so we cannot avoid this.<\/p>\n

And the longer we try to avoid escalation, the closer China comes to its big conflict with the West.<\/p>\n

A bright spot \u2013 Kamala Harris might be the one to open the floodgates to Sierra.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1815658170095640940?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

But it\u2019s moving quite fast now \u2013 China has invited all Palestinian factions to China and gotten them to sign an agreement on cooperation.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/shen_shiwei\/status\/1815602668318212379?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And Biden and Harris seem unwilling to meet Netanyahu who flew to the USA to meet them as he wants to start a war with 7 countries or organizations. He got to meet Trump instead \ud83d\ude32
\n(doesn\u2019t Biden or Harris need j..as votes in the election?)
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/lauraloomer\/status\/1815497229081121026?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

That China is active in the I..el \u2013 P..a conflict is something completely new to me, recently we learned that they supported October 7 and now they are trying to unite all P..a movements for a common front against I..el.<\/p>\n

Then we probably wrote in the thread when JD Vance was chosen as VP that it could be Trump\u2019s mistake that cost him that he didn\u2019t choose Nikki Haley \u2013 I think that analysis holds as long as Kamala doesn\u2019t completely mess up and choose Hillary Clinton or some other sinker for VP \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I also have a question I asked in the thread we were supposed to use for the election but it\u2019s dead, isn\u2019t Kamala Harris supposed to be chosen at the nomination August 19-22, she has herself written a letter where she lets us know she is now nominated \u2013 I don\u2019t know this so open question?<\/p>\n

Until we see otherwise I think the USA will be busy with domestic politics regardless of the election outcome and that is exactly what Russia and China are aiming for.<\/p>\n

To be very clear \u2013 Putin doesn\u2019t need Trump as president \u2013 he needs a USA turned inward and he gets that regardless of the election outcome.<\/p>\n

EU is then afraid of nothing \u2013 that we don\u2019t have sufficient defense and must buy time is absolutely a lie.
\nUkraine has a loss ratio of 1:3, 1:5, 1:8 depending on the type of battle and they always defend at a disadvantage of 1:3. We have known since the Cold War that this was roughly what we expected if not more.<\/p>\n

Since our armed forces in the EU are supposed to be light years ahead of Ukraine\u2019s poor soldier skills (if we go by all the discussions we have had in the thread about the world\u2019s best infantry that is to be contradicted) this should at least apply to any brigade in the EU as well.<\/p>\n

Since we will be defensive and RU only have limited penetration points \u2013
\nFinland, the Baltics, the Baltic Sea, or Poland \u2013 RU must have a strong numerical advantage where they choose to attack. And even then the probability that they will advance is minimal if we are to go by Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Finland and Poland can both put up a formidable defense after mobilization, they want peace so they have prepared for war.<\/p>\n

In the Baltic Sea the Russian Baltic Fleet will be sunk in its entirety if it attempts an amphibious operation \u2013 I think that is indisputable?<\/p>\n

The Baltics are poorly defended today and everyone is afraid of an invasion there \u2013 rightly so.<\/p>\n

France has 8 brigades, Italy 9 brigades, Spain something similar, Germany 5 and so on.
\nYes, they are probably undermanned and not fully equipped and that is the EU\u2019s dark secret.<\/p>\n

But\u2026
\nUkraine could, with a thin picket line equipped with anti-tank weapons and Carl Gustaf, stop the Russian three-day operation and they have, with M113, T64, and a small air force, retaken 50% of lost territory in unfavorable terrain
\n(and since Ukrainian soldier skills are terrible according to the thread discussion, our superior soldiers could achieve the same with only Molotov cocktails and a scooter).<\/p>\n

And Russia today in 2024 has some army corps mostly for this and they are probably not at full strength, fully equipped and above all untrained. Belarus has 100,000 (maybe) + 7,000 Wagner, and China will not actively participate.<\/p>\n

So the EU could already today move 25% of the countries’ operational brigades to the Baltics, Poland, and Finland for permanent training as well as naval presence in the Baltic Sea, making it impossible for Russia to cross any land border for a long time to come.<\/p>\n

If the Russian bastards can build a Surovikin line in a year, then surely the Baltics, Finland, and Poland can do it too, right???
\n(since we in the West are completely superior to Russia)<\/p>\n

And thereafter, the EU must also be able to start production if Ukraine has managed to build up an arms industry worth 20 billion USD in the middle of an ongoing war?<\/p>\n

At the same time, resources should continue to be provided to Ukraine with new production, REMO vehicles, and ammunition, and allow them to win the war by removing all geographical and other restrictions.<\/p>\n

There is absolutely zero reason to be restrained today with the justification that the EU needs to build up further capability for tomorrow. If there is not a hidden reason behind our actions, it is reasonably weakness and fear from the West that Putin manages to manipulate through his subversive activities, which suddenly changes how we should see ourselves \u2013 our self-image is then grandiose and has an expiration date.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Since NATO and the West have been completely clear that we will never threaten Russia, they have actually emptied their entire border defense and sent it to Ukraine almost entirely.<\/p>\n

We discussed at the beginning of the war that Japan should deploy landing crafts against Vladivostok (but in international waters) so the marine infantry could return by the Trans-Siberian Railway.<\/p>\n

But above all, the USA has been too clear, so not even Finland’s or Poland’s exercises are met anymore with more than FSB border guards.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:28 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d <\/p>\n

Regarding tanks newly manufactured, they produced around 250 before the war (different sources give slightly different numbers, from 150-350 but most I’ve seen have stated around 250, some say that also includes upgrades of e.g. T-72s).<\/p>\n

I find it very hard to believe they haven’t managed to at least double that number after 2.5 years and it’s unlikely that it has dropped to 30.
\nDo you perhaps mean per month?<\/p>\n

Regardless, they obviously won’t last long once the stocks are depleted.<\/p>\n

I didn’t think they had that many armored vehicles left in Ukraine. Will last a long time if that’s true.
\nBut looking on the bright side, it’s strange they don’t do better than they do despite that amount, so in a way, it’s still quite positive because they probably won’t produce many more.<\/p>\n

I agree with Whyllian’s criticism of that link. I am blocked, so it is very likely a pro-Russian account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

But whether it is true or not is probably the interesting part.
\nThere is a lot we don’t get from UA accounts but which is still interesting information to highlight.<\/p>\n

This is maybe the tenth video I’ve seen of Russian artillery with short response time, and in that video, it was a disciplined platoon marching in line while the Russians go in small groups and drink mash, so most likely it was a UA platoon.<\/p>\n

LW can moderate if he feels something crosses the line or not.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

New production is vanishingly small and that was what I meant.
\nThere were 400 in 2023 and then it was T80, T90, and T72 but almost all are modified older vehicles\/REMO.
\nThen they supplemented with modified T62s and refurbished from depots so it was probably about 1500 total in 2023?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yep, a bit more splinter protection than I thought, 8500 is a lot\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:39 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

That should be possible to get published in the media (after some reworking, and removing e.g. the elections in the USA, Portugal, etc.)<\/p>\n

Much more is at stake than just Ukraine.<\/p>\n

It gets \ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, Putin’s subversive activities have gone well in the USA and politicians rarely act before public opinion is clear.
\nIf you can with hundreds of thousands of troll accounts make it look like there is an opinion against the war, it surely helps that not much gets done.<\/p>\n

Out of curiosity \u2013 their situation with Harris \u2013 Trump, do we read in the thread information that roughly corresponds to what they get?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Don’t forget to give Dengamle many thumbs up when he shows up \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:51 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, of course, few new ones regardless if it is 30 or 400.
\n1500 total per year may be correct but then they must have had close to 8000 active in decent condition from the start and that doesn’t sound completely unreasonable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:54 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

He missed his morning routine, lacks the lyrics and melody, so he has to come up with something really good then! \ud83d\ude06<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Hope you’re right.
\nThe IFV number felt spontaneously too high.
\nTank numbers have gone up since the middle figure but I chose to go with Sirsky’s number.<\/p>\n

The figure of 700 tanks in depot is an attempt by highmarsed or covert cabal to estimate those that can still be made operational.
\nFor example, there are 1000 T72s that are never touched in depots and they believe the autoloader has rusted through.
\nSo I have chosen 700 as the remaining possible to get operational that are in depot.<\/p>\n

Then you probably have +30% of that number that are with technical faults among those at the fronts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now it’s underway.<\/p>\n

One in three Ukrainians: Can give up land for a quick peace
\nhttps:\/\/omni.se\/t\/ukraina\/38981387be6826cc0e1f521e5c40565aa16065ee<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

This link might work better:
\nhttps:\/\/omni.se\/a\/nyyowa<\/a><\/p>\n

If you read the whole text, it is not as bad as the headline suggests.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:47 \u2013 Johan No.1 Yesterday we found out that the massive bombing of the Tuapse refinery was an attempt to 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