{"id":9388,"date":"2024-08-04T11:08:15","date_gmt":"2024-08-04T09:08:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-08-04-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T08:04:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T06:04:07","slug":"2024-08-04-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-08-04-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-08-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

In April 2024, there were 25 state-of-the-art aircraft at Morozovsk airport, and according to FIRMS, the entire airbase is in flames. These are FAB bomb racks, and RU doesn’t have many of these, nor do they have dozens of airbases for them.
\nThen there’s always the question of how the pilots are doing after that hit.
\nApparently, there were nuclear weapons at the base as well, does anyone see escalation from Putin?
\nhttps:\/\/english.nv.ua\/nation\/morozovsk-29-su-34-and-su-35-aircraft-were-based-at-the-airfield-satellite-photos-50407537.html<\/a><\/p>\n

UA needs to get rid of the FAB bomb racks, period, and now they have evidently found a way to do it without the USA. Let’s hope more airbases follow quickly here and then Ukraine has solved the problem themselves.<\/p>\n

Ukraine also doesn’t need air superiority, they need to get rid of the Russian air force and then the drone weapon can solve air tasks to some extent in areas they can’t fly in themselves due to Russian air defense.<\/p>\n

Since the drone weapon is already in place, all that’s left is to deny Russian air, and it seems to have started now with Morozovsk.
\nThe big question is always what the USA says that we don’t know, they can’t stop something they don’t know about but they can always pick up the phone and threaten with all sorts of things afterwards \u2013 hopefully there will be more airports because we know UA has the capacity \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

RU is at the doorstep of Toretsk but it’s difficult to infiltrate in 2024.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1819628638230208628?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

A thought I have regarding UA getting war-weary is that RU units have been almost wiped out and then new capabilities brought in, so they have no emotional baggage when they go and die. UA brigades have now fought for 2-5 years and the soldiers have had some leave.
\nIf what Gregg says is true, which Zelensky has also hinted at earlier, that newly recruited soldiers are not being deployed to units as much as they should, then maybe what we see is simply exhaustion?<\/p>\n

Here Carillo goes hard against Sirsky and Defmon comes to the defense. This kind of thing is interesting when you get a glimpse behind the curtains.
\nIf you consider that survey in Kyiv Post that over 50% can consider peace negotiations, Zelensky probably doesn’t have it easy right now.
\nBut we knew that \u2013 the longer time goes, the higher the risk, we’ve said this since 2022.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/defmon3\/status\/1819746253799833911?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Askola reasons that the delayed mobilization is behind UA’s problems. I think there are more factors than that. There was a major reorganization in autumn 2023 and now it works worse \u2013 classic Swedish reorganization thus causing everyone to lose motivation and stop working.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/joni_askola\/status\/1819298725996429758?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Today we learn that Russian transport planes are shuttling to Iran, so Russia is actively supporting Iran to start a war.
\nIn Venezuela, there is Wagner.<\/p>\n

Russia has embedded advisors (an old fine term that the USA used to use, right?) among the Houthis.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kyuzbkksm52o<\/a><\/p>\n

China is rattling most things against Taiwan right now.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/indopac_info\/status\/1819919217363431901?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

53 drones have been stopped with EW at the Olympics in France.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/clashreport\/status\/1819623021880947015?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The global escalation we discussed in the thread that started on October 7, 2023, continues to escalate. I think Pearson’s book still holds up. We are well on the way to full war in MENA.<\/p>\n

Then it may be that they have managed to steer Germany into a hydrogen bubble, I don’t quite understand this but it fits the pattern with shut down stable electricity production and wind power, so maybe one should lift some stones there and see who has driven this?
\nGermany is well on its way to becoming a horror example of how, to save the environment, they introduced lots of mandatory measures that led to reduced industrial production.
\nThen China just stole those market shares and laughs at saving the environment and no one cares.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/hax\/status\/1812438021993607381?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This has probably already been discussed but I consider the released Russian opposition to be a Russian influence operation or am I overinterpreting this?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/reportertired\/status\/1819638677334602108?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kyuyurafcl2y<\/a><\/p>\n

I still perceive the West as naive, yes there is quite a lot of “you are a Russian troll” in the mudslinging but if you guess, half of that is generated by Russian trolls to raise the tone.<\/p>\n

Now Anonymous has tested and confirmed that criticism of Trump is slowed down by Twitter and then you can assume that pro-Trump gets great reach and anti-Harris likewise.
\nWe have just seen a whole bunch of politicians to the right of center fall for a Russian psyops about a male-female boxer where absolutely no one bothered with source criticism.<\/p>\n

The West has no strategy to counter this and now we have seen demonstrations for P…a being hijacked at times and now the right is starting to move across Europe.
\nIt’s a bit tricky to navigate because while many kind souls wanted to demonstrate for G…a’s children, Russia pulled the strings behind and now when ordinary citizens have had enough of crime and demonstrations that turn violent, Russia is also pulling the right’s strings.<\/p>\n

It will become an increasing spiral of violence where one group kills someone in another group and it continues with more and more violence. Citizens will increasingly associate themselves with “their” group, whether ethnic or ideological, and all sides can bring up examples of atrocities committed against their own group.<\/p>\n

The result is that sitting governments have an unstable situation on their hands that is perceived as threatening by voters, by all voters because all sides participate.<\/p>\n

And then the Russians pull the next string \u2013 political opposition where charlatans promise to solve everything and give more to everyone as long as they win the elections.
\nWe saw this with Brexit, we saw it with Trump 1, we see it again with Trump 2 and so on.<\/p>\n

Yes, there is an underlying problem that Western governments have failed to handle and that Russia can now capitalize on. I am among those who believe that RU fueled that problem already in 2015.<\/p>\n

After 2.5 years of war, it has gotten worse, the tone has gotten higher, protests more numerous and the general dissatisfaction broader.
\nDuring the Cold War, this was a reality the West had to relate to and probably S’s realpolitik was based on this is my thought. This is something I have started to reconsider quite broadly that it is not the war threat that makes the West anxious but the subversive activity.<\/p>\n

The subversive activities cultivate contacts within the administrations and politics in the West that push their agenda, and if you pursue anti-Russian policies, you can suddenly encounter resistance or have your career ruined. This was how things were during the Cold War, and this is how things continue now.
\nWhat we haven’t yet discussed are those associated with China, but they exist as well.<\/p>\n

Today’s Thomas Sowell, always razor-sharp.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/thomassowell\/status\/1819512641976414480?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Jordan seems to have more integrity than NATO actually, both Poland and Romania have been told not to shoot down missiles or drones entering their airspace.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/VividProwess\/status\/1819303725166440909<\/a><\/p>\n

You did see this selfie that Maduro lost the election?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/danieldimartino\/status\/1817762165350117796?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Top 5 best ideas I’ve seen in my life, ones you\u2019ve wondered about \ud83d\ude00 There was some (mild) criticism yesterday that the post was gloomy but this should lift everyone to new heights.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/enezator\/status\/1819712256512319825?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Neptun is in da house, airborne \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5
\nThese beasts will make a difference now that JDAMS or Storm Shadow won\u2019t come in sufficient quantities.
\nHopefully RU manages to mass-produce them and license production to manufacturers in the EU.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1819715045531468102?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:30 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for the wall!<\/p>\n

Sad to see accusations against Sirsky. It could very well be something started by the Russians, or the usual, wanting a scapegoat when things go badly and believing everything will get better if the person is replaced.
\nIt\u2019s always easy to blame everything on the boss.<\/p>\n

At the same time, one can hope it was sorted out, if there is any truth to it.<\/p>\n

The Russian attempts to divide us are surprisingly successful. I believe they started gearing up already in 2014; I have seen many Russian troll accounts created back then. Then, of course, they have infiltrated real life as well, not just online.<\/p>\n

The question is what can be done about it; the security services have something to think about.<\/p>\n

Go Neptun!<\/p>\n

(By the way, I replied to you in yesterday\u2019s thread but a bit late, so you might have missed it.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:04 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Please, let\u2019s not get into a climate crisis debate!<\/p>\n

The Russians have really succeeded in polarizing the debate so much that it\u2019s pointless to even try discussing it.<\/p>\n

It will only divide us!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

There is very little self-reflection from the West regarding the complete halt of all deliveries sometime in spring 2023.
\nThen we know today that it was the USA that wanted Ukraine to move towards Tokmak, which was the most fortified area on the most fortified front.
\nUp at the northern front there were a few dozen customs officers, that we know, and transport hubs on the Russian side of the border that supplied the entire war.
\nUkraine was forced in 2023 to attack where the Russians were strongest \u2013 this has Ukraine itself announced.<\/p>\n

My belief is that in 2024 the big brushstrokes will be painted, and if there is no offensive, there will be negotiations which will be preceded by a ceasefire and then further discussions.<\/p>\n

For Ukraine to start offensive operations again when everything is at a standstill is probably a bit like trying to start an old car. The citizens of the country must accept that tens of thousands more will die and three times as many will be wounded.
\nThen they no longer have the West on their side because then it\u2019s a ceasefire and the West likes that.<\/p>\n

Russia has played this game excellently; in autumn 2023 I said on several occasions that the only thing that can threaten Ukraine is if Putin talks the West around \u2013 we will see before the turn of the year if he has done that or not.<\/p>\n

Russia is not completely clueless, they saw in 2023 that mines worked and where they have static fronts there is fieldwork all the time. What was difficult in 2023 is probably even harder in 2025. There was an opening this year for offensives but if you are to believe what is starting to emerge, the offensive reserve has not been staffed for over a year, which would be somewhat of a sensation if true. Has the West completely stopped training Ukrainian soldiers as they did in 2022\/2023?
\nAnd have they not sent what they promised?<\/p>\n

But I\u2019ll believe it when the 2024 season is over \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Then I\u2019m quite curious about how these negotiations will go \u2013 Russia is under little pressure to give up anything right now because they are the ones advancing.
\nHad they been allowed to negotiate to regain Belgorod and free passage for their army corps down in Crimea, maybe some haggling could have happened?<\/p>\n

I see a looming risk that if there is a ceasefire, everything will stall in endless discussions and de facto Russia will then control roughly what they have today. The West will probably demand that Russia returns all land, Russia couldn\u2019t care less, and the West writes a sour letter or something.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, the word climate crisis was poor but as Larsanders writes above, Germany has managed to crash itself completely on its own and it is of interest who was behind that. There is currently a discussion about German officials who deliberately lied about the effects of shutting down nuclear power, for example.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Saw it, won\u2019t watch the film.<\/p>\n

You understand why I push Wagner in Africa and that all these anti-colonization movements keep quiet, right?
\nThis kind of thing is everyday life in several African countries now after Wagner has established itself,<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

It is not a law of nature that the spring offensive 2023 achieved nothing of value. In winter 2023 Ukraine tried to enter the northern oblasts and discovered that it was defended by a few dozen FSB officers but there the West said stop, we guessed that then and we know it today.
\nWe also know that the USA demanded an attack straight towards Tokmak, which is the area with the most mines in the world.
\nAnd we know that the year before Zalizhny was not allowed to attack where he wanted, he has been open about that.<\/p>\n

If you look at the bulge around Avdiivka, it is considerable which should put the West in panic mode but it is quite quiet right now both from the USA and the EU \u2013 that says quite a lot about where we are heading I suspect.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut would that really be enough to win the war on the ground against a Russia that has switched to a war economy and ruthlessly sacrifices people?\u201d
\nIsn\u2019t it you who usually says that quantity is a quality in itself?
\nUkraine has the quantity on its side in terms of soldiers in occupied areas \ud83d\ude00
\nThen you also know Russia\u2019s production figures for tanks, PTGB, advanced aircraft and IFVs, right?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:51 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, they have probably succeeded well in exploiting the environmental movement and the climate crisis to steer political decisions in a way that benefits Russia.<\/p>\n

That does not mean, however, that it is wrong to try to improve our shared environment.<\/p>\n

But, it was not your post at all that I reacted to, but the subsequent discussion which I feared would get out of hand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:47 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, Wagner would need to be hunted down with a blowtorch regardless of where they are, and it is strange that the USA, which has nevertheless classified them as terrorists, does not do more. (That the EU has not classified them as terrorists is a mystery.)<\/p>\n

It is probably because Wagner has not acted directly in the USA (even though they have fought against them).<\/p>\n

Wagner did murder some investigative journalists a few years ago and they do not hesitate to rape the local population, it is not a new problem.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

As is well known, it is quite lively in Nigeria right now and I have noticed how they are quite well organized and it is coming up on Twitter.<\/p>\n

Not very surprised that they are waving Russian flags in one of the northern provinces, Wagner has already made its entry into the northern part of the country.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1820072162356555888?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I don\u2019t think Trump will support Ukraine but I am also not blinded by party politics and think Biden did what was best for Ukraine because he absolutely did not.
\nUnfortunately, Kamala Harris probably won\u2019t be able to prioritize Ukraine either because Trump\u2019s other job is to lock down the country if he loses.<\/p>\n

What you see now in England, wait until after the election and regardless of who wins, all three groups will be out fighting in the streets because at least one group will be dissatisfied.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Can\u2019t the JAS Gripen be made into an EU project?
\nGet a couple of countries on board and replace all US-made parts and then make it one of the planes in the EU\u2019s air defense?
\nGoogling around it seems the plane can be used for the foreseeable future in later versions?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:43 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\ude41<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:36 \u2013 Johan No.1 In April 2024, there were 25 state-of-the-art aircraft at Morozovsk airport, and according to FIRMS, the 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