{"id":9394,"date":"2024-08-07T10:28:24","date_gmt":"2024-08-07T08:28:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-08-07-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T08:04:51","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T06:04:51","slug":"2024-08-07-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-08-07-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-08-07"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

In the area of Ukraine’s violent and deadly invasion of Russia, the 98th AD, SOF Senezh, Russian Airforce MRD (newly established), and a territorial regiment are supposed to be present. The funny thing here is that further west there is the even more poorly defended Bryansk with almost no Russians at all.<\/p>\n

Then east of Belgorod it is likely a bit thinner between the Russians as well since they have prioritized their offensive against Kharkiv. Twitter rumors claim that Ukraine also has combat groups in these areas that are revving their engines and doing squats at the forest edges.<\/p>\n

Pretty sure this is what the Russian Defense Minister called Lloyd Austin about, who then called Zelensky. Either the US has changed its mind or Ukraine has gone full Mexican.
\nI guess Ukraine has gone full Mexican for the simple reason that if they continue doing what the US wants, this will crash; we have all seen the incoming train wreck with negotiations from a bad negotiating position and a hesitant West. Everything on red is very Ukrainian.<\/p>\n

Ukraine probably reached around Sadzhe on the first day, which is 10 km deep (with the usual Johan No.1 exaggeration). One is amazed at Putin’s arrogance to still leave his northern border undefended, completely incomprehensible that the little bunker rabbit dares to be so bold.<\/p>\n

There are so many reports that it is mechanized units, possibly plural, that it cannot be dismissed \u2013 at least battalion strength, possibly several penetration points so several battalion strengths.
\nIt is also the case that “freedom Russia” and other volunteer units DO NOT have Bradleys \u2013 which are said to be rampaging in Kursk, so maneuver brigades which seem to have been Twitter-confirmed to be the 22nd mech (withdrawn from Bakhmut) and an experienced territorial brigade.
\nThen they are clearing mines \u2013 why do you think?
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kz344mqikk2m<\/a><\/p>\n

UA has the LV screen with them, we know that for sure after initial RU air losses and they shot out the Russian task force on the highway so they probably also have the capability for accurate indirect fire AND deep reconnaissance \u2013 a bit of good old combined arms warfare.<\/p>\n

Now RU will be forced to do a Krunky and all task forces will have to get on and band on the highway and be knocked out \u2013 during this offensive operation RU will take the greatest losses.<\/p>\n

Does this sound like the guys in freedom Russia doing a raid or does it sound like a somewhat more ambitious attempt \u2013 we shall see.<\/p>\n

And then there are reports that RU is pulling units from northern Luhansk and the Siversk area to reinforce the northern front \u2013 this means they have no reserves up at the northern front which is huge. From Siversk it is possibly VDV that is being moved.
\nMuch of the above I have stolen from legends in yesterday’s thread \u2013 all credit to them.<\/p>\n

In January we started discussing that Ukraine would have an offensive strike for 2024 and as you know I have staked my (tarnished) reputation on us seeing an offensive in 2024 and in the form of mech combat.<\/p>\n

We have had two things to keep an eye on for those of you who have followed the thread and neglected your work just like me,
\n-mech across the border at the northern front
\n-amphibious operations at the Dnieper or along the coast towards Crimea.<\/p>\n

Now unfortunately I have arrived in civilization after fighting my way safely through lawlessness to the airport, or an armed escort did it and I sat looking important in sunglasses in the car behind \u2013 so unfortunately I don’t have time to wait until it is clear what is happening \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n

We have assumed that the F-16 has been the critical line for offensive operations and that the FAB bombers must be removed to enable movements for the mech.
\nWith what has come out I believe we have already seen mech combat. There is some rumor that everything will be trenches and infantry that must move stealthily because of the drone weapon but that is obviously not the case \u2013 the thread declares that the thread was right again \u270a
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1820806098514776527?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And according to the MXT link yesterday it was a weakened mech battalion that attacked but I am starting to suspect they are attacking on several fronts as said, we shall see.
\n\u201cRussian Defense Ministry says that this morning, Ukrainian forces launched an incursion into Kursk Oblast of Russia with approx. 300 troops, supported by 11 tanks and more than 20 armored vehicles.\u201d<\/p>\n

We have sat for months watching how the US sabotaged just because they can, now it is probably official that UA did not get to knock out the air force and we have discussed it endlessly \u2013 good that it is confirmed so everyone understands that the Biden administration does not care about FAB-killed children the least, they would rather have peace than living children.
\nThe US has also stopped Ukraine from entering Russia with ground forces is my strong opinion even if we may have to wait for formal confirmation of that \u2013 and that is exactly why this is a huge event.<\/p>\n

Why should we then keep an eye on the first two points above?
\nBecause these two operations exceed local terrain recovery or tactical offensive, it would show a completely new level of ambition.<\/p>\n

It would show an ambition to carry out offensives in some form in 2024.<\/p>\n

Then I must remind about the thread’s discussion about KPR, BPR and so on \u2013 republics that declare their freedom and then Putin has to negotiate to get Belgorod back and free passage for his trapped army corps down in Crimea instead of which conquered areas he will be allowed to keep.<\/p>\n

I suppose from my vacation I will have to decide the date when this year’s offensive started and upon return issue a royal decree (possibly through Dengamle because if you are royal you should have a herald in funny clothes?) and as usual everyone who suggests other dates is disinformation.<\/p>\n

May 4, 2023 came about in a cloud of whisky at 01:00 at night and was entirely based on Defmon posting something about Indians running over some cavalry regiment but the world’s historians have accepted that date so everything ended well despite misunderstandings.<\/p>\n

However, I can inform the thread that if you hear anything about amphibious operations in the near future, Ukraine has very big plans for 2024 \u2013 then it\u2019s really on, and then the window for offensive operations opened August 6, 2024 \u2013 but we have not seen that yet.<\/p>\n

Then I must remind the pessimists who as usual started feeling the wind in their sails and declared that Ukraine’s downfall was inevitable because against Russia no one has a chance. Now apparently Ukraine did not think so because they are invading Russia with mechanized units and it is going well \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

I am not saying that Avdiivka is a war trick because it is not but in Russia they operate in silos so the northern front and northern Luhansk have to worry about the northern front right now and then the eastern front and southern front are pushing as best they can.<\/p>\n

The Eastern Front has carried out quite a lot of high knees and screaming across the fields in recent months, and many brigades have been wiped out. At Avdiivka, they have also expanded significantly throughout the summer, which has given them exposed positions at present.<\/p>\n

At the Dnieper, the barbarians are probably in poor condition, and you surely haven’t missed that two UA territorial brigades have become marine brigades?
\nI believe Ukraine has around +300 suitable vessels of various sizes, ranging from SB90 to American river boats like those from Vietnam, over to RIB boats and similar with weapon stations on them.
\nThen they probably have a bunch of additional floating craft on top of that; they were working with jet skis for a while.
\nWhen this locust swarm starts from the Dnieper over to Crimea and all the staff locations, barracks, ammunition depots, and supply bases down towards the coast are subjected to marine raids, it will get lively.<\/p>\n

Have you considered that earlier when Ukraine carried out raids into Russia, the Russian reaction was measured, arrogant, and dismissive?
\nNow they are directly out saying that Ukraine is attacking with large mechanized units \u2013 are they worried?
\nAre they trying to get the world to condemn Ukraine for invading Russia when they want peace?<\/p>\n

You remember my painted picture of Lavrov sitting and crying loudly at the UN, begging at least to keep Moscow.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has also far exceeded previous penetration depths, and it\u2019s not over yet if one is to believe a well-informed Twitter.
\nWe have seen both mechanized combat and offensive operations, so some need to recalibrate themselves again as so often happens through this war. A mechanized battalion-sized unit has full advance 10 km into Russia.<\/p>\n

Dengamle also sends regards that his T64 drove into a ditch quite immediately and got an unfixable track twist because apparently Ukrainian drivers don\u2019t understand \u201cright, no left, damn it\u201d in Swedish. So Dengamle\u2019s invasion of Russia ended minus 300 meters since the ditch was a good way inside the Ukrainian side \u2013 but if he wants to talk about \u201cthe invasion of Russia\u201d when he\u2019s back, thumbs up applies and you don\u2019t need to mention the train crash.<\/p>\n

Since I clock out today, this is actually a few days early, so I\u2019ll stick my neck out a bit and claim that I think maybe the window for the operations that will probably paint the big decisive strokes of 2024 has now opened. Historians will agree that this year\u2019s offensive started in the first half of August 2024 (exact date will be confirmed when I have conducted a world-leading analysis of all available data, super professional), anyone suggesting other dates is a Russian double agent.<\/p>\n

Summer break \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:46 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d It certainly looks like you\u2019re getting your offensive, a bit early to be completely sure. It didn\u2019t come as I thought, when the Russians had hit a low point. Now maybe that low point is forced instead.<\/p>\n

When the war is over, I hope we find out what the US said and didn\u2019t say to Ukraine and how the game behind the scenes looked. Have they chosen to go against the US or is it perhaps something they actually planned together? If they have gone against the US, it proves once again that they have balls of Ukranium.<\/p>\n

Exciting to see how it goes in Kursk and how it might affect the rest of the war.<\/p>\n

Have a nice summer break!!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Ok, I must admit I have actually wondered if the US and Ukraine have just spun everyone in the stands. RU has known about this offensive for a while \u2013 they saw the buildup of forces just like us.<\/p>\n

But maybe the US could succeed in blowing Putin away?<\/p>\n

Hasn\u2019t Biden looked very well-dressed lately?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

\ud83d\ude04 Regardless, it\u2019s good that it happened, but it would feel better if the US is actually on board. Partly so that there won\u2019t be any sourness afterward, and partly because then they show some backbone (and then maybe that 100 km limit will soon disappear as well). Then there is only one red line left: sending in troops.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:03 \u2013 Johan No.1 In the area of Ukraine’s violent and deadly invasion of Russia, the 98th AD, SOF Senezh, 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