{"id":9470,"date":"2024-09-09T09:50:34","date_gmt":"2024-09-09T07:50:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-09-09-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T14:28:17","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:28:17","slug":"2024-09-09-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-09-09-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-09-09"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Our freedom cost someone everything
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/militarycooi\/status\/1832034816889360495?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I have a bit of the feeling that we have passed the worst here, does anyone share that positive feeling \u2013 I no longer feel like I\u2019m fighting from a disadvantage when I talk about what will happen without it looking increasingly plausible even for mainstream observers. Until August 6, it was quite lonely on the “mech offensive 2024” substitute bench, I can report.<\/p>\n

In my last post, we showed the condition of a marine infantry brigade and a 76th VDV regiment, which was absolutely deplorable.
\nThey were the units sent to Kursk and the 76th AAD has been held as an offensive reserve behind the southern front.
\nSo there should have been better units available.<\/p>\n

Someone in the thread chants as often as he can \u201cshortage of tanks,\u201d which is starting to be true now, or it has been true for a long time since they changed their doctrine out of necessity, but now it\u2019s becoming urgent.
\nI remember my own time when barbarians died around 400 per day and tanks and IFVs were 40-50 each.<\/p>\n

In 2023, 1500 new tanks were “produced,” of which 400 were modified T72 or above and the rest modified T62. In October 2023, RU lost over 500 tanks. Everything points to them being short of tanks.<\/p>\n

Here is a photo from one of the depots \u2013 this is what it looks like on the ground from the satellite images we try to form an opinion from. It is becoming increasingly difficult to complete anything from the depots.
\nT72s will not be completed anymore because the autoloader has completely rusted through on those remaining.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1832153367885541586?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

New production is a joke, we know that too, T90M was mostly modified existing T90s during 2023 and the same with T80 and T72 (yes, that was probably obvious).
\nBTR-90 new production was about a dozen in 2023 for example and Armata has been discontinued.<\/p>\n

The first tanks knocked out on the highway in Kursk when they rushed towards the penetration were T62s by the way.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1820870165183021289?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Artillery losses dropped dramatically a few weeks ago and LW speculated about the reason and posted an important piece of the puzzle the other day \u2013 the daily number of shells was 4200.<\/p>\n

Towed artillery accounts for 75% of RU artillery losses.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/verekerrichard1\/status\/1820015966064947390?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

In the beginning, the ratio was 1:30 and RU hurled 50,000 \u2013 60,000 shells daily over UA defenses.<\/p>\n

Then during the spring offensive 2023 it was down to 10,000 if I recall correctly and for a short time UA gained the upper hand when RU went below 6000-7000 and UA a few months above 7000 (from memory).<\/p>\n

We have never had it as low as 4200 and at the same time Russian artillery losses are low.<\/p>\n

It is a bit too early to pop open the Obolon beer and mix the ranch dip because there is a chance it is a big movement away to Kursk which we will know in a few weeks at the latest.<\/p>\n

But\u2026
\nWe have previously discussed those 300 WW2 artillery tubes that have now been mobilized with a different caliber that only North Korean ammunition worked on and they have also been confirmed knocked out at the fronts.<\/p>\n

We also KNOW that Russian artillery no longer applies shoot-and-move tactics and is becoming increasingly stationary and we KNOW that Ukraine has received fire radars for counter-battery fire so the advantage is total here.<\/p>\n

I think it was MickeU who first started discussing that the biggest shortage for RU is key personnel, sometime in 2022?<\/p>\n

In the Russian army, reverse Darwinism prevails because they run their units with 90% losses and the shortage has been obvious for a long time.
\nWe see it in that the artillery does not move.
\nWe see it in that Russian tanks struggle to move in terrain and are just big targets.
\nWe see it in the Russian infantry who nowadays just run across fields in large hordes.
\nMeanwhile, Ukraine now masters combined arms warfare with composite units, has Uber for artillery with 2-minute lead time, conducts airborne landings and amphibious combat.<\/p>\n

Not to mention the drone weapon where they now use Smaug (or Dracarys) widely on all fronts. I am like a little child on Christmas Eve about this terrible weapon and that the Ukrainian peace movement has no power at all.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/banderafella\/status\/1832894657388310669?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

What we do not see directly is that Ukraine also has total superiority in night fighting, if you have followed the deliveries they have received tens of thousands of image intensifiers and RU likely has an acute shortage of such and if they have them there is a shortage of batteries because they don\u2019t even get water. Half the day is dark and then a Russian soldier is just prey which we read about a few days ago.<\/p>\n

Then there are the world\u2019s SOF running wild and they make a big difference deep behind enemy lines together with the ATESH partisans. At Kursk, UA had infiltrated so much that the first weeks\u2019 reinforcements were 50% shot down when they were on the highway and banding up.<\/p>\n

UA has 10 reconnaissance battalions and a whole forest of SOF.<\/p>\n

Then they have communication with at least six “liberation fronts” inside Russia that do what they can to destabilize the country.<\/p>\n

We must not forget in this context that the internal repression apparatus is severely understaffed in Russia at present and in occupied territory they are minus 400,000 who would be needed to control the occupied areas.<\/p>\n

Wagner was wiped out after Bakhmut and Vodkarun but FSB and Rosgvardia have also taken hits over the years.<\/p>\n

I counted the total at some point and including Wagner it was about 460,000 or thereabouts from memory.
\nThe whole Russian Federation, occupied areas and barrier battalions have to be covered by that.
\nWild guess is that some republics are emptied of internal troops and they have mobile units that go where they are needed.<\/p>\n

It is particularly interesting that UA is reinforcing the Pokrovsk front with two (2) brigades and it comes to a complete halt for the Russians. The Russians have about fifty brigades in the area against UA maybe 15.<\/p>\n

You see just like me that there is a large redundancy left with Ukraine \u2013 they defend in numerical inferiority and it comes to a complete stop. They attack in numerical inferiority in Kursk and advance \u2013 now two more brigades have been brought forward according to Twitter rumors and the Russians are terrified, with their own forest of brigades in the area. Wonder where the first presidential brigade will show up \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n

Remember my last post, UA will primarily go on the defense to the east but also a bit in the north and try to continue westward and northwest.
\nThen Bryansk is of course wide open because RU does not yet have the capacity to reinforce there \u2013 they have been reactive so far.<\/p>\n

If UA continues to open new Davydiv Bridges and attack vectors where they fight in numerical inferiority, RU will soon run out of corks to plug the holes with \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

We’ll see how much difference the Smaug drones make; I think it will be significant as long as it stays dry, but the dry and warm weather seems to persist for a while longer.<\/p>\n

Then apparently RU is raining its FAB bombs over Kursk right now.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1832854521124737122?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And this is a major concern for the West (USA\u2026) which now has to respond with more LV and F-16s since they stopped Gripen for commercial reasons.<\/p>\n

Ukraine MUST get rid of the FAB bomb droppers because they cause losses for UA and are the LAST thing the Russians have left now that their artillery backbone is broken and they are low on armored vehicles.
\nIt is the easiest thing in the world to deny them access to the fronts, but UA must feel that they have enough LV and F-16s to dare to risk them.<\/p>\n

The fact that Russian air is not raining down is a big concern; if you remember when the thread guessed correctly that they were doing hit-and-runs with Patriots, it was about a dozen flights over a week or two and no further operations have been made against airbases for a while now.
\nThe West should have responded immediately when the offensive started and sent more.<\/p>\n

Without reading too much into it since we don’t have the details, I think Scholz feels it’s starting to be time for peace. If the word “ceasefire” is uttered by him, we know he has a bank account Putin is filling, but he hasn’t said that yet, so we have to wait a bit longer before we know which side of the fence he stands on.<\/p>\n

Then I think Jay in Kiev might have a point that Biden is terrified that Putin will sabotage the election for him, but then he is completely wrong. Putin will do it anyway, and the best for Biden would have been to come out as a strong UA supporter so moderate Republicans would switch to D now that Trump does not want to support Ukraine.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l3pikyqiu52j<\/a><\/p>\n

Speaker Johnsson has begun to understand that UA support is a vote winner, and Trump is probably not far from turning around, so total policy failure from Biden as usual.<\/p>\n

The fact is that any leader or debater in the West who utters the word ceasefire, truce, or anything in that direction in the coming half-year is paid by Putin. Putin will demand that everyone push that line, and that will reveal the last who have managed to stay hidden.<\/p>\n

It will be interesting to see who the 2,800 people are who get paid by Putin, many of whom sit in Europe \u2013 we hope that report leaks soon so we can see if we are surprised by any Swedes \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I saw that psychologists in Ukraine have had to reevaluate their understanding of how broken people can become when women return after having chemical agents injected that destroy the uterus so they cannot become pregnant, and men come back castrated. Virtually all, men and women, are regularly raped and psychological and physical torture happens all the time.
\nThen we have amputations, which may sound clinical, so instead let’s say they cut off the hands of prisoners who are returned just because they can.<\/p>\n

The fact that the media completely overlooks this is still as shocking but follows a pattern where Russian abuses are basically a blank spot, not least in Africa, which there is reason to return to.
\nWhere is Amnesty’s and the Red Cross’s absolute outcry over sterilizing captured men and women in the worst ways?
\nIn Kherson, they also found a torture chamber for children.
\nOr the 700,000 children that Russia claims to have rescued \u2013 we have proof that the older ones are already being trained to become soldiers, and we can guess that Putin intends to wage the war with them going forward.<\/p>\n

One of the great atrocities of this war was when the Kadyrovites captured a mother and her five-year-old daughter, tortured, gang-raped, and murdered the daughter in front of the bound mother who was then released, and they stood and laughed when she failed to take her own life.
\nWhat is disturbing in this context is that they have managed to surpass this many times over \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

The Russian oppressive regime is like a sexual sadistic death cult, and the fact that ordinary Russians don’t care is really unacceptable. They will be collectively punished for this, so the best thing they could do now that the internal troops are gone is a popular revolution so their republic becomes free from future guilt.
\nThen the West should really rethink properly because the country Ukraine will never forgive this just as j..a never forgave the Holocaust, and they will actively push for property rights where they can and for the country to turn inward and break up. The West should accept this fact and rip off the band-aid and make sure it goes as fast as possible.<\/p>\n

Then I don’t quite remember who wrote about UA nuclear weapons the other day, but now UA has them too \ud83e\udd23
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1833004414904213640?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine will get newly manufactured German Lynx before New Year, this is top shelf and freshly polished. Now Western production has slowly started to ramp up, but EVERY politician in the West will approve new arms sales to Ukraine because it’s cash in, so within a few years their mechanical units will be the best equipped in the world, all paid with the interest on seized Russian funds.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1832286406816804865?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And here you have another PMC that has turned sour on Putin and wants revolution; I see more and more of that in the feed now. Maybe unemployed PMC soldiers will be the ones to start the revolution?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/PStyle0ne1\/status\/1832849265841848804<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:47 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d
\nI’m a bit ambivalent about the dragon fire. Afraid that Russia will quite soon manage to produce the equivalent.
\nHope Ukraine has built up a solid stockpile so they can make maximum use of it before the Russians catch up.<\/p>\n

Information about further support from the West keeps popping up now (it will be interesting to see what Sweden announces today), if it doesn’t take too long before delivery it looks pretty good.<\/p>\n

It’s a shame that more F-16s (and Gripens) are not in place, I would have liked to see Russian air forced away and of course the same with long-range weapons. FAB must go.<\/p>\n

Even though the Russians are still pressing in eastern Ukraine, albeit at a slower pace, it somehow feels like they are actually approaching the culmination point. Despite superiority in manpower and artillery, they have difficulty breaking through for real.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

The Russians have been raining thermite over UA positions throughout the war and using thermobaric weapons; the only thing that has changed is that Ukraine has now managed to produce such weapons themselves. Then in Mariupol, RU dropped 10-ton bunker busters over the Azovstal fortress.<\/p>\n

Yes, the Germans’ latest support was actually interesting.<\/p>\n

Exactly, the indications we got throughout the spring were that F-16s would be in place this summer and we made the connection just in time for the offensive. Now UA didn’t get the planes even though they could have come and countries in the EU wanted to send them, but they went ahead with their offensive anyway.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now it is after an article in La Republica but according to them Scholz plans to push the line that Ukraine should cede land for peace, the reason would be poor election results.<\/p>\n

I don’t believe this, that our leaders wouldn’t understand that the way forward is to defeat Russia without still giving Putin what he wants after ALL that Putin has been caught with in Europe, influence operators, sabotage, murder, influencers, bribed politicians, election interference, controlling the left and right (and the Islamists) and so on.<\/p>\n

As said, it is too early now but if he started pushing this line he would be in Putin’s pocket in my opinion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1833066890366693758?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, it is interesting how some feel bad hearing the truth that the Ukrainian children live under.<\/p>\n

According to below, there are only 600 in the USA and a large part of the rest should be in the EU if one guesses.
\nUSD as well so they get 1-4 million SEK per month to push Putin’s line \u2013 for that amount I would write anything.<\/p>\n

Yes, FAB really needs to go and very soon. They risk breaking the back of the UA offensive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Order is restored when MXT and Erik14 comment on the post \ud83d\udc4d
\nThere was a time when I was so far outside consensus that you were the only ones commenting \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The old guy is almost done with swimming school now and will move on to the next training session.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:21 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

You were ahead of me! \ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

There are MANY who warn that the US stance in this whole thing will lead to more and more wanting to acquire their own nuclear weapons \u2013 not unreasonable.<\/p>\n

Amnesty, RK and many other organizations including the UN are politicized and also infiltrated by Russia.
\nWhen things come up that can be used to attack the West, they are lightning fast like cobras but everything that would be negative for Russia they tread around or raise dutifully so as not to lose funding.<\/p>\n

Russia and China are smart \u2013 the West has financed all these organizations and then they take them over with bribes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:52 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Surely it is true that the Russians have used thermite but it seems it has mostly been in cities and completely without precision. Also, they must group the pieces quite close (or maybe it is the thermobaric ones..).<\/p>\n

What Ukraine does is unique when they can sweep down right over Russian fortifications and place it exactly where it is needed.
\nI also don’t think it matters much whether it is dry or not. Sure, greater effect if it starts to burn, but the thermite fragments are probably not fun to get on you.
\nThe problem is of course that the drone should preferably fly low and can probably be shot down quite easily.
\n(But I wouldn’t want to stick my head up and try to shoot it down if it has already started dropping thermite.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:56 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\ude02\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Today I feel like I live in a parallel world when I check the media.
\nThe half of our parliamentary parties that closed the nuclear power plants criticize the government for their energy policy \u2013 quite cheeky actually from someone who remembers everything like it was yesterday \ud83d\ude00
\nOur traditional home-cooked food is apparently racism too, everywhere in all newspapers \u2013 don’t touch potato pancakes with pork or there will be a fight.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is completely forgotten and yet Ukraine has stopped the Russian bastards and even invaded Russia.
\nExcept maybe Expressen which writes that over 50% of the Ukrainian soldiers desert\u2026<\/p>\n

SVT’s last big scoop was that Putin now supports Harris in the election, that remains \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

What has happened?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Warmonitor caused some confusion<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/warmonitor3\/status\/1833181458019537218?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The UN is totally embarrassing itself<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1833131908919623876?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:11 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

If that is true and can be proven, he must be kicked out head first?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:17 \u2013 Johan No.1 Our freedom cost someone everything https:\/\/x.com\/militarycooi\/status\/1832034816889360495?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w I have a bit of the feeling that we have 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