{"id":9472,"date":"2024-09-10T10:39:03","date_gmt":"2024-09-10T08:39:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-09-10-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T14:29:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:29:10","slug":"2024-09-10-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-09-10-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-09-10"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1832523358447267953?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Lavrov delivers an olive branch about the size of a Greek olive grove \u2013 the tone has shifted from bombing London and wiping out Ukraine to now portraying them as a misunderstood victim, not far from them standing and crying loudly at the UN \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l3rwzsjqwg2x<\/a><\/p>\n

It can’t be very fun for Putin to stand at his large panoramic window in the Kremlin and see drones circling over Moscow without being shot down, Moscow is a prioritized air defense area.<\/p>\n

A Grom 2 in the Kremlin is at the top of Budanov’s list and considering that the Russians tried to bomb the Rada, have bombed GUR, and are trying to strike targets where Western instructors, commanders, and others are, it is a legitimate target and a proportionate response.<\/p>\n

I sense some influence operations in statements from Ukraine and updates like Deepstate right now, they are downplaying the situation. In 2023 they tried to paint it in a brighter light instead and I see this as something very positive. Remember 2023 there were lots of videos of troops in large numbers until they hit minefields and panicked. This year there is nothing, we see no movements, no mechanics, nothing. It’s just the usual videos of dying and fleeing Russians.<\/p>\n

Now at least I am waiting for the next step in the Ukrainian multi-stage rocket, to stop the Russian offensive at Pokrovsk and the invasion of Russia up near Kursk is by no means all the steps, most would understand that if they bother to add up available units and which have been used.<\/p>\n

At various fronts there is talk of “clean units in new Western vehicles who are happy and in good spirits” \u2013 sounds to me like units that have been in recovery and re-equipped and trained since autumn 2023 which we have also guessed has happened for the simple reason that Ukraine is defending with a numerical disadvantage of 5:1 or up to 10:1 so lots of redundancy among the maneuver brigades.<\/p>\n

Bryansk is already being probed by UA so they don’t reveal anything to point it out but something is also happening around Belarus right now.<\/p>\n

We will see where it heads but if Ukraine can topple Lukashenko and let the citizens have their way it would be a bigger chess move in terms of destabilization for Russia actually. Probably the Siloviki would become really worried and maybe even consider leaving Ukraine alone?<\/p>\n

It was underway a few years ago but the West chose to let Putin keep control and turned a blind eye when he sent in his internal troops who tortured the opposition. There were lots of videos outside detention facilities where you could hear the screams of dying civilian protesters.<\/p>\n

I don’t believe the Belarusian defense forces are 100% loyal to Lukashenko, we know what the citizens want from before, and there are a couple of Belarusian regiments in Ukraine so probably thousands of Belarusians who today are veterans and very capable who want to liberate their country.
\nMaybe all that is needed is a little push from Ukraine but it is a bit messy with a few thousand former Wagner in the country and a Chinese SOF company. However, Russian units are gone and Lukashenko has had to donate quite a lot of his heavy equipment to Russia.<\/p>\n

Lukashenko has also recently hinted at a successor so maybe the Chinese are there to fly him out if it falls apart \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Anyway, Ukraine has brought offensive capability to the border with Belarus and it is a possible attack vector like many others, which brigades they are is not discussed but that they are there lurking with an offensive strike is out in the open.<\/p>\n

At the southern front there is opsec cover but we know what will happen thanks to someone photographing Dengamle in light blue speedos at Sk\u00e4rholmen swimming pool and in northern Luhansk it is starting to look attractive if the unit maps are correct.<\/p>\n

I am also looking at the Pokrovsk bulge and feel that Ukraine should be able to have drone coverage on all access roads to the 30 brigades operating in the area.
\n18 trucks with supplies per day is what a brigade should have if maintenance works so 540 vehicles moving on a couple of roads per day where UA drones reach.
\nFeels like you could quite quickly create fuel shortage, water shortage, ammo shortage and general misery among the units in the Pokrovsk bulge.
\nThe cost-benefit ratio would be sky-high and I see no blocking battalions in that area but maybe they are not marked?
\nA good time to cut the roads, and the southern one is almost contested as it is, is when the ground becomes impassable for wheeled vehicles in a few months \ud83d\udc4d
\n– a good candidate for collapse thus.<\/p>\n

Ukraine needs to conduct operations where their advantage in capability and combined arms warfare evens out the numerical disadvantage.
\nThey need air landings, mobile combat, amphibious combat, drone warfare, SOF deep strikes and they need to hit where RU is currently vulnerable.
\nNow Kursk has created several vulnerabilities that RU will of course patch over time so it is a “window of opportunity” for a while ahead.<\/p>\n

Now we know why the 72nd was pulled from Vuhledar and I wrote the other day that the 47th was “free”.
\nWhich NG brigade it was we don’t know and presidential 1 is also standing around eating sausage \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l3q5zkjdw32p<\/a><\/p>\n

Now Dengamle has finished the dolphin at Sk\u00e4rholmen’s swim school and no one is happier to get rid of him than Sk\u00e4rholmen swimming pool which didn’t really have a choice when Budanov personally booked the swim school for him under another name and fake age.
\nThen he was supposed to learn to drive a RIB boat but after puncturing one with a dull fork so it sank when he was about to eat sausage he is now taking a quick course in Optimist dinghy out by the Maritime Museum which has been perceived as safer. He has a ban from entering the Maritime Museum, the Technical Museum and the Ethnographic Museum after he managed to burn down an old unique thousand-year-old Eskimo tent with fire-sensitive mummies in an exhibition when he tried to secretly smoke a cigarette and the Maritime Museum is terrified for their wooden boat models.<\/p>\n

There are also problems with personal equipment, he couldn’t resist testing the life vest and pulled the cord so it inflated and the assigned AK5 he managed to fill with dirt so it blew the barrel on the first training shooting out at I1 in Kungs\u00e4ngen.<\/p>\n

This is a collaboration between GUR and the armed forces run by MUST but there are rumors that the armed forces are starting to get tired and are considering dropping out.
\nPreviously it was important for them to shine with Dengamle’s creative problem solving and when Budanov wanted to go solo with Dengamle they threw in six extra Combat Boat 90s to be able to write that it was a Swedish operation but now they are starting to hesitate if it was worth it.<\/p>\n

Now, Dengamle’s absolute qualities are not that, but that in a cloud of chaos he always manages the impossible, admittedly often with extreme devastation for third parties, but the task is always solved where special forces have previously failed and the missions were considered impossible.<\/p>\n

Actually, no one really understands how, but they have just accepted the natural force Dengamle as it is, and that is why Budanov has infinite patience; he knows he will get full return when Dengamle eventually struggles into the life jacket and gets going.<\/p>\n

Yes, he will leave a wide firebreak of devastation behind him as usual, but the success of the operation depends on whether Dengamle can pass the optimist dinghy course, which puts some pressure on a resigned instructor right now, but Dengamle has learned not to lose the keel in the water at least, which is better than yesterday.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has its own JDAMS now.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l3rxoyvxvt2k<\/a><\/p>\n

Managed to lose half the post when Word shut down and on restart a lot of text disappeared \u2013 that really sucks and makes you unmotivated \ud83d\ude10
\nSaving all the time is for chickens, Russian roulette with Word makes life exciting.<\/p>\n

How Putin could sleep through August 6 is strange because RU knew about the offensive in June-July already. Everyone who has a different opinion about the start of the offensive is, by the way, Russian double agents, and the thread has hit two dates \u2013 2023 is internationally accepted as the offensive starting May 4.
\nHowever, Zelensky et al. have tried to blow us away \u2013 now they said this after 2023 when the battle plans were in Moscow hours after they were presented \u2013 that NO ONE was to find out about it including the USA.
\nBut yes, when Zelensky started hinting about peace and no equipment and the West wavered, it was pretty tough. We were supposed to watch what happened and UA retreated, no F-16s, the USA sabotaged and started hiding. Life could have been more fun and morale was getting dangerously low among the Ukrainians too.
\nWhich is what I think is behind this as well as a reason \u2013 to keep the motivation up.<\/p>\n

Then I arrogantly talked about the Krunky effect but it is the Davydiv Brid effect, you “land” in a completely new and undefended place and the defender must get reinforcements there who then have to travel by road \u2013 worked excellently at Davydiv Brid, better at Krunky and I guess like a well-oiled windmill at Kursk.
\nThose of you who have been in the thread for a while and sacrificed your jobs just like me remember that stroke of genius and the cheers on the trampoline.
\nMost likely, huge amounts of reinforcements that never arrive have been knocked out \u2013 I\u2019m beginning to suspect that up to half of the reinforcements rushed in were knocked out during the first week.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the constant discussion about whether Ukraine has inferior soldiers in the thread vs the world\u2019s best infantry. I think Accentmannen has a good description of the mechanized fall of an NG brigade that looks professional. We can hope that Dracarys is used widely now.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/m2n1y7c1Sgc?si=A6EjioJSd0LRGhVd<\/a><\/p>\n

Maybe some in the thread are ready to change their opinion about the world\u2019s best infantry now that they are beating Russia in fair combat despite being outnumbered?
\nWe in the armored shooting would need 3:1 in numbers to storm defense systems, I recall.
\nThey broke through two defense lines and rolled out maneuver warfare with cooperation between all branches and the new drone weapon with reconnaissance, effect, and EW.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has already won this because they fight outnumbered and inflict proportionally higher losses on RU. So far, RU has plugged the holes with armored vehicles and more barbarians, but armored vehicles are running out and they are getting worse-trained soldiers who die faster.<\/p>\n

The slippery slope.<\/p>\n

Personally, this is exactly how I sat and felt Ukraine should act since sometime around the turn of the year and have tried to describe it in the thread in the best way I could. I also thought we would see this in 2023 and was probably as disappointed as Ukraine that the USA constantly stopped everything that would make a difference.
\nThen when “no offensive 2024” spread, I chose to bet my reputation that there would be a mechanized offensive in 2024 to at least turn some doubters, but apart from MXT it was pretty empty on my substitute bench and much fuller on the gloomers\u2019 side.<\/p>\n

Now, they probably could have gone south first instead of north and achieved the same result but the flanks first and then we have this year\u2019s flycatcher at Avdiivka.<\/p>\n

The Azov thrust we have guessed could decide the war and I still believe that is true \u2013 if Crimea falls, it becomes untenable.
\nThe purpose of Kursk is the Belgorod Peoples Republic discussion \u2013 that Putin must start negotiating to get back the northern Oblasts and his trapped army corps down in Crimea instead of how much land he can keep in Ukraine, that\u2019s where we are heading and that\u2019s why Lavrov sends an olive branch.<\/p>\n

Now keep your eyes on leaders in the West who will start pushing peace negotiations with a ceasefire, if anyone does (which we haven\u2019t seen yet) they are either in Putin\u2019s pay or so incompetent they should be fired \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n

This bears repeating \u2013 RU has lost the strategic bombing campaign badly, already early 2024 it was lost. This is now so obvious that people barely comment on it anymore but imagine if high-value targets in Sweden were hit twice a week?
\nNot many drones get near Kiev and we see videos of drones circling over Moscow undisturbed \u2013 exciting to say the least.<\/p>\n

However, I must admit that what I thought was an honor code among the clan \u2013 that strength is everything \u2013 does not apply to Putin\u2019s men who have been without shorts for quite some time actually, but PerraG55 understands this better even though I am working on a post about just this.<\/p>\n

I thought the Siloviki put their survival first and that is very limited at present with a pretty big threat.
\nGetting rid of Putin and ending the war through a full retreat in exchange for eased sanctions is, to me, the easiest way out.
\nOr do Putin and his closest still have too good control over the situation?
\nThey absolutely had it during the vodka run 2023 and that was only a year ago.<\/p>\n

As I said, I am working on a world-leading post on the subject that will rock the internet and add a couple of new dates to historians\u2019 descriptions of the war.<\/p>\n

More open criticism of Putin on social media, I see a lot of that now. Maybe our time\u2019s revolution will come from unemployed PMC soldiers?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1829498420480122998?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

To make it a bit difficult in the thread for those who usually write that “quantity is a quality in itself” regarding Russia not being able to lose like this, here is a good explanation of why UA has more soldiers at the spearhead than Russia and thus has both quantity and quality and will win.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1828502579002671212?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:27 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for today’s wall! \ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

The eel almost sounded like he was about to suggest a ceasefire, we’ll see if he dares to take it that far.<\/p>\n

It will be interesting to see what Ukraine comes up with next. I don’t really believe in Belarus (by the way, are Wagner and the Chinese really still there? I thought at least the latter were only there for exercises?). <\/p>\n

With all the floating craft, I think more of operation “optimist dinghy” led by TheOldMan.
\nMaybe also another operation into Russia but further north to spread them out even more.
\nBy the way, where is the liberation army? Time for them to come up with something creative.<\/p>\n

Speaking of TheOldMan, I actually couldn’t resist and tried to check how he was doing. Never managed to spot him, he was too far out, but I heard him roar so it echoed over the fjord.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Flat-footed damn deckhand, sail home, for heaven’s sake make sure the corpse lives, you filthy landlubber!<\/p>\n

I guess he had taken too many drinks and forgotten that he was sitting in an optimist dinghy, a sailboat made for one person. Maybe he got confused and thought the walker was a crew member?<\/p>\n

Sounds at least like he is fired up!<\/p>\n

By the way, for those who don’t know. It was TheOldMan who inspired Herg\u00e9 to create the character Captain Haddock, mostly because of the swearing and not his seamanship. TheOldMan had barely been to sea at that time, his two morning drinks combined with slight seasickness made him terribly seasick. <\/p>\n

He seems to have gotten over it now, or maybe he realized he needs more than two drinks to manage?<\/p>\n

Looking forward with excitement to his upcoming efforts, unless Budanov finally gives up hope.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Hahaha, excellent \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23
\nToday’s loud laugh in the car so colleagues wondered<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:12 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Laughed just as much at your digression about TheOldMan! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

In 2024 the war is no longer a “special operation” on someone else’s territory where the only loss is the army.
\nThe war is on Russian territory for the first time since WW2 and drones are buzzing around Moscow and bombing as they please.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s probably getting quite hard for Putin to sell this to the rest of the criminal clan now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

haha, yes that\u2019s an old classic when he was supposed to play B-force at Musk\u00f6 \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23
\nA destroyer sank and it has since been completely covered up.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:34 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

\ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02 Yes, that was when he got together with the kitchen lady just to trick her into giving him the key to the liquor cabinet (we know how he is). After he drank everything, he became completely hopeless.<\/p>\n

Heard something about him also managing to shoot up the \u00c4lvsnabben monument and that what stands there now is just a replica.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Regarding RU counterattack against the Sejm encirclement.
\n155th is an anorexic unit.
\nThe other unit trying to break out is probably the one involved \u2013 the Air Force brigade or a VDV.
\nThat is probably more desperate and it means that as soon as they have exhausted themselves, UA will accelerate in the NW and W.<\/p>\n

This is very good.<\/p>\n

Suspect there are more than 2000 trapped behind the Sejm.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

probably wrong about that unit or those units being encircled vice versa but 155th and RU airforce maybe?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Things are moving in the direction of RU counterattack<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1833653249561227576?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:39 \u2013 Johan No.1 The Lions https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1832523358447267953?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w Lavrov delivers an olive branch about the size of a Greek olive grove 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