{"id":9476,"date":"2024-09-11T10:10:53","date_gmt":"2024-09-11T08:10:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-09-11-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T14:29:54","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:29:54","slug":"2024-09-11-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-09-11-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-09-11"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>14:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>We start with the Russian counterattack in Kursk, our guess yesterday about the VDV seems to be correct according to David D, the 51st AR has then been moved from east of the bulge to west of it and UA is said to have retreated 5km?<\/p>\n<p>The 155th Marine Infantry is a very small unit, reasonably counted in hundreds. The Airforce regiment is, just as it sounds, composed of surplus air force personnel and recently established. I don\u2019t know where the 51st AR has fought, but certainly not at full strength either. The battalion from the 200th Arctic is just one battalion and a unit that has been neutralized multiple times.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1833653249561227576?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1833653249561227576?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Yesterday I guessed it was an attack to save the encircled units but it seems they have sneaked the 51st AR into the area (if we are to believe David D) and then it suddenly looks like a counterattack to retake terrain instead, but maybe best to leave this unsaid \u2013 the logical thing would be to try to save what can be saved.<\/p>\n<p>This one from Noel suggests &#8211; possibly \u2013 that UA is trying to cut the 155th and VDV brigade in the flank but now I am extrapolating heavily\u2026<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1833781110519587074?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1833781110519587074?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The units were on the highway weeks ago and Putin has demanded that the whole area be retaken by October 1st.<br \/>\nThe Ukrainian units are veterans and we have recently heard about two new brigades added to the area \u2013 elite from the mechanized forces.<\/p>\n<p>If the arrows David D draws are correct, these units have every chance of being neutralized in the coming week.<br \/>\nThat said \u2013 the units that were on the highway should be ready for a counterattack so we can probably expect a larger combined counterattack in the coming weeks from the east and north as well \u2013 if we don\u2019t see that it would be sensational.<\/p>\n<p>Could that be why the USA is beginning to consider allowing the missiles?<br \/>\nBecause the FAB bombs are smashing UA in Kursk, we have reports that they have been raining down in Kursk recently.<br \/>\nThey are being dropped by the hundreds right now and have been a major reason for RU successes after Avdiivka.<br \/>\nThen we need a huge blow against the airbases so FAB goes to zero and that quite quickly before RU manages to retake Kursk.<\/p>\n<p>Probably the offensive at Sejm will be cut in the flank or wiped out in a cloud of drones and then it will be open to continue westward.<br \/>\nKursk will likely be occupied after October 1st and the question is what actual consequences that will have for Putin.<\/p>\n<p>Now things are moving and Dengamle has had to choose between two missions \u2013 a violent one-man operation with a huge blast as a spectacular finale or to go first in a larger operation with lots of flags, it\u2019s unclear which he chose because he likes both options and wanted to do both so will return to the matter.<\/p>\n<p>I have a sour post about the USA coming but I\u2019m holding on to it for a few days until this missile issue inside Russia is settled. If Moscow is flooded with thermite they get a C+ approval.<\/p>\n<p>If we hear more from Lavrov that Russia is a misunderstood victim, if we hear more from Scholz and others about the urgency of peace negotiations and if we have more fighting in Kursk and droning of Moscow then we are on the right track here with great strides.<\/p>\n<p>A thought I have started to consider is whether RU will take the opportunity to say that now it\u2019s war with NATO and to save the world and the children they will leave Ukraine because the goal is achieved. And then they go back to sucking Russia dry and being a criminal clan \u2013 who knows \ud83d\ude00<br \/>\nThe turns around the missiles are a bit strange so my thoughts get a bit strange too.<\/p>\n<p>And all that was needed was for Ukraine to cast off the American yoke and fight according to international law.<br \/>\nGood heavens how angry I got that the USA forced Ukraine to release the VDV at Kherson in 2022, now I just remembered that so I had to sit down and hyperventilate \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n<p>The Russian soul seems to be to increase the violence until it can\u2019t go any further and then crash but just before that you stand with tears in your eyes and tell everyone what a victim you are to try to slip out of the mess you got yourself into completely on your own. Exactly where we are on that scale is a bit harder to say but that Putin is shaken is reasonable? Since winter 2023 we have established that an invasion of Russia really hurts and have been more than a little disturbed that the West has prevented it.<br \/>\nThe belittling of Ukraine since the start of the war has been hard to watch but at least Denmark has had enough and Mette went out saying that the USA has stopped them from sending F-16s since the start of the war so a clear statement.<\/p>\n<p>I think Sweden also jabbed at the USA here and Germany is no longer number one in the EU.<\/p>\n<p>Zelensky has broken loose and now the war is no longer predictable for Russia because the deal with the USA no longer applies \u2013 anything can happen right now.<br \/>\nWhen this unpredictability has crept in, the risk shoots off like a spear for Putin and the other leaders in the criminal clan.<\/p>\n<p>Dracarys drones, mine-clearing equipment like that drone that identified all mines with GPS coordinates, JDAMS (and now their own too!) have suddenly made Ukraine very well equipped to cut through Russian defensive lines in a completely different way than in 2023 and they have already shown that in Kursk. I interpret this as any area being fair game this year and if you hear discussions about Tokmak you should no longer dismiss them.<\/p>\n<p>This is after cluster munitions for ATACMS and 155mm which were good when the Russians were going up into the trenches and FPV drones that can fly into small horizontal openings and explode right in the group of barbarians sitting drinking mash and nibbling on their pickled cucumber that is starting to get old.<\/p>\n<p>A big uncertainty for the Russians thus was where Ukraine might appear. They have shown in Kursk that they can lay an EW blanket over the front and then cover all terrain 10-15km deep with drones so movements become impossible.<\/p>\n<p>Then they laid distance mines and at any front section these two mean the task force will be fought on the highway before they get there.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine has in 2024 the tools to solve the task which they did not manage in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Then I am pretty sure we can say it again just as we have said before \u2013 Ukraine has more Easter eggs in store that we have not yet seen. Dracarys was indeed a very interesting one but there is more fun.<\/p>\n<p>Did you also notice what level of intelligence Ukraine has \u2013 the Iranian ballistic missiles arrived at a depot and they droned it immediately. Supposedly there are 300 in total and unclear how many they burned up but good intel you have to admit \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<p>So when you look at the fronts, you should think that Ukraine can break through the defensive lines this year, they know where all the ammunition and fuel are stored, so those will be bombed away and defending brigades will be chased around like in a fox hunt.<\/p>\n<p>Suddenly all front sections are fair game.<\/p>\n<p>Then think about the difference just one or two brigades have made in recent weeks and that Ukraine always attacks at a numerical disadvantage and inflicts proportionally much greater losses on the Russians.<br \/>\nLooks good thus \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<p>This year&#8217;s offensive took its time to get started, probably delayed equipment and ammunition if I may guess.<\/p>\n<p>It is now officially confirmed that Russia is conducting active sabotage in Europe \u2013 think about that a bit and then about the West&#8217;s sluggishness in helping Ukraine win the war as quickly as possible.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/haynesdeborah\/status\/1832339241461772529?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/haynesdeborah\/status\/1832339241461772529?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>UA is not giving up Toretsk without a fight.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/banderafella\/status\/1828393825561202760?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/banderafella\/status\/1828393825561202760?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Russian WW2 artillery on its way to the fronts, Tannenberg meets 2024<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1826082269158948912?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1826082269158948912?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>14:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>Pennsylvania is probably a swing state and I gathered from the debate that there are 800,000 Poles living there and I have the impression of a Ukrainian diaspora.<\/p>\n<p>Harris took a clear stance on the UA war issue even though it remains to be translated into action, but Trump fell into the trap with nuclear weapons and downplaying it.<\/p>\n<p>This diaspora is probably as sensitive as we are on this issue so there is a good chance that Pennsylvania will go to D reasonably?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>14:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>Well, Denmark announced that they wanted to send F-16s already in 2022 but were not allowed.<br \/>\nThe Netherlands announced that F-16s were coming and then changed their minds.<br \/>\nKier Starmer said you can shoot Storm Shadow anywhere and then changed his mind.<br \/>\nAnother country said you can use F-16s against any targets and then changed their minds.<\/p>\n<p>The US has consistently pushed that Western weapons may not be used deep inside Russia.<br \/>\nThe US has also stopped Patriot missiles from Poland.<\/p>\n<p>It is not unreasonable that the US stopped Gripen altogether considering the above.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>16:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>BREAKING and as we suspected in today&#8217;s post, Ukraine is now trying to hit the &#8220;Sejm Russians&#8221; in the flank by crossing the border in the south.<\/p>\n<p>Nothing there according to unit maps so a chance for a fresh new brigade and potentially a bloodbath in 1.2.3\u2026<br \/>\n2-3 RU brigades that will be overrun and pressed down into the black earth with footprints on their backs and then the road lies open eastwards.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1833875561237672343?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1833875561237672343?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>17:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>Sorry \u2013 it should be westwards that the road lies open, got a very angry reminder on WhatsApp from Budanov.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>17:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>Here we can talk about reaction time from UA, the same day they start a counteroffensive against the counteroffensive right in the flank.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>17:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>That thing about eating cats is interesting, I have seen what I believe are genuine videos of a Gripen woman being questioned about having eaten a cat and at least two people in the municipal council complaining in front of them that their pets disappear and are eaten.<br \/>\nAll are probably from Springfield.<\/p>\n<p>Now Trump and JD Vance are making a big deal out of it but you have to be careful not to mock it completely if the videos are available for everyone to see because then Trump can turn it into his favorite theme that lying media is covering up and that the government is covering up.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>18:36 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>Thanks! Lovely positive reading!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>11:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>UA crossed the border at MEDVEZHE and went N and E.<\/p>\n<p>To the E you find Kulbaki<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/maps\/place\/Kul&apos;baki,+Kursk,+oblast,+Ryssland,+307462\/@51.2426591,34.7414674,8400m\/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x41293a29c7acc5f9:0x8b85a6cb690fdc06!2sSnagost\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.google.com\/maps\/place\/Kul&#8217;baki,+Kursk,+oblast,+Ryssland,+307462\/@51.2426591,34.7414674,8400m\/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x41293a29c7acc5f9:0x8b85a6cb690fdc06!2sSnagost<\/a>\u2019,+Kursk,+oblast,+Ryssland,+307431!3b1!8m2!3d51.3176587!4d34.8863658!16s%2Fg%2F11fk09rbm5!3m5!1s0x41293e6445327dbf:0x6bdbbe6abf388893!8m2!3d51.2424625!4d34.7873188!16s%2Fg%2F12dpwn3tx?entry=ttu&amp;g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkwOS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D<\/p>\n<p>And to the N you find Kobylki<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/maps\/place\/Kobylki,+Kursk,+oblast,+Ryssland,+307455\/@51.326416,34.654978,4193m\/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x41293a29c7acc5f9:0x8b85a6cb690fdc06!2sSnagost\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.google.com\/maps\/place\/Kobylki,+Kursk,+oblast,+Ryssland,+307455\/@51.326416,34.654978,4193m\/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x41293a29c7acc5f9:0x8b85a6cb690fdc06!2sSnagost<\/a>\u2019,+Kursk,+oblast,+Ryssland,+307431!3b1!8m2!3d51.3176587!4d34.8863658!16s%2Fg%2F11fk09rbm5!3m5!1s0x412940cd8d767fa1:0x75db4a2ca5d33814!8m2!3d51.3265638!4d34.675238!16s%2Fg%2F1tdwj15p?entry=ttu&amp;g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkwOS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D<\/p>\n<p>I guess UA has reached both and that it is confusing with the place names, Erik14&#8217;s map suggests a violent double fork \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-2\">\n<h4>11:50 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n<p>If you refrained from mixing up the letters in the place names it would help, it&#8217;s hard enough with the Russian and Ukrainian villages and towns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-3\">\n<h5>11:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n<p>You have to keep on your toes a bit, it was completely intentional \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-4\">\n<h6>11:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n<p>You can see that they cut the Sejm Russians in two here during the night and are on the heels of those trying to flee eastwards \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-3\">\n<h5>11:54 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n<p>You wrote Kolbyki namely, but now I get it!<\/p>\n<p>Now we can hope that it will be Ukraine that gets the Russians on the fork and not the other way around!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-4\">\n<h6>12:07 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n<p>Yes, I hope so. At the same time, it suspiciously looks like a motti\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-4\">\n<h6>12:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n<p>Trust the plan (and Dengamle).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-4\">\n<h6>12:30 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n<p>\ud83d\ude04\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>LW is probably trying to get a grip on the UA offensive just like everyone else and it takes some time, it has been a lively morning here going through everything and understanding which places are now new national Ukrainian territory according to Lex Putin.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>13:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>Mek is on the move \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/nevedimka123\/status\/1833727203508462002\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/nevedimka123\/status\/1833727203508462002<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Not entirely clear why the thread hasn&#8217;t exploded when Erik14 and the undersigned have posted about Ukraine&#8217;s violent attacks up in Kursk, does it take that long for the morning coffee to kick in?<\/p>\n<p>It is thus underway that conquered ground in Kursk will double.<\/p>\n<p>There are also weak Twitter rumors that UA has crossed the border in other places in Bryansk oblast but I may very well have misinterpreted something here so zero gears on that yet, we&#8217;ll wait until Erik14 posts something on the matter then it is confirmed \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<p>However, it coincides with new elite units being moved to the Kursk area.<\/p>\n<p>Hope we avoid Trump, wind power and Swedish domestic politics today and that the thread manages to focus on what is important \u2013 that Ukraine is continuing a successful violent offensive in Russia and conquering more territory for its national legal land bank.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine thus immediately launched a counteroffensive against the Russian Sejm counteroffensive and crossed the border in the south at Medvedhze. That reaction time was a bit of a world record.<br \/>\nIt is a well-chosen point behind the attacking trench Russians who are attacking east in that area, some might call it a curveball.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1833875561237672343?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1833875561237672343?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>If they can break the back of the Sejm Russians, the road is basically open NW and N while they go on defense NE and E and absorb the larger Russian counterattack that is starting up (and if it is not starting up, it is an indication that Putin is done for but it SHOULD be starting up).<\/p>\n<p>They can then cross the Sejm on pontoon bridges and start rolling up the border to the northwest all the way to Bryansk, as well as cross the border throughout Bryansk Oblast more or less as they please.<\/p>\n<p>It may be that UA was waiting for the Russian attack to make it easier for them to clear out the Sejm Russians, and if everything is now in motion, it won&#8217;t take very long before the area is conquered and legally Ukrainian national territory according to Lex Putin.<\/p>\n<p>They seem to have advanced quite far into RU territory in the counteroffensive against the counteroffensive; either they have crossed at several places but at least crossed at Medvezhe and are now in Kulbaki and Kobaki.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1833944501938749649?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1833944501938749649?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>I didn\u2019t dare to really guess what type of battle it was, but this looks like RU is trying to rescue and pull out the Sejm Russians and that UA is pressing hard, we\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n<p>In any case, UA has now opened a new attack vector in the area where the Russians are weak, which is smart warfare as always.<\/p>\n<p>Play with the idea a little that Ukraine manages to repel all Russian counterattacks in the coming weeks and significantly increases conquered (new legal Ukrainian territory according to Putin\u2019s precedent) northwest into Bryansk oblast.<br \/>\nHow will the discussions go among the leadership in Russia then?<\/p>\n<p>Do they start realizing that they cannot manage to throw Ukraine out of its own territory (which is no longer their own territory but legally Ukrainian territory according to Lex Putin)?<\/p>\n<p>When will they start feeling that it\u2019s time to leave the pesky Ukrainians alone, who are becoming increasingly difficult to handle now that Ukraine is legally increasing its land area with some fine farmland and a few towns in what was previously the Russian Federation but is now internationally recognized Ukraine?<\/p>\n<p>Kursk is looking very exciting for Putin anyway, as so far since August 6 he has been completely unable to throw out the not-so-little cheeky Ukrainians, and he has had over a month to do so. This is priority 1 for Russia right now, and he has brought forward dozens of brigades and according to Zelensky 60,000 soldiers \u2013 these are the best units RU has brought forward, so they have nothing better up their sleeve than this \u2013 \u201cthis is it\u201d as MJ would have said and done a pirouette.<\/p>\n<p>If UA can pair this with Belarus collapsing, the war is probably quite close to the end because even a large oligarch has a pain threshold, and an unstoppable invasion of Russia has every chance of becoming a grassfire that quickly spreads for them. Interesting in this context is that Ukraine has recently brought offensive capacity against Belarus.<\/p>\n<p>Then Putin probably starts feeling that his orange buddy in the USA is no longer heading for a guaranteed election victory, which is a very big risk factor for him, and then he sees just like the rest of us how Zelensky has been able to start dictating the terms to Biden and not the other way around when it comes to the red line of the missiles that would lead to nuclear war and a wiped-out London \u2013 at least.<\/p>\n<p>As with all other red lines in this war, they end with Zelensky jumping on them while Putin whimpers quietly and looks away.<\/p>\n<p>Predictability for Putin is completely gone now \u2013 anything can happen when the USA can no longer control Ukraine as they promised.<\/p>\n<p>To secure the northern border and Belarus, Russia needs at least half a million, which they do not have because they are all in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Now we wait with excitement to see what China has to say about peace negotiations here after Turkey says Crimea is Ukrainian \u2013 China has hinted at peace negotiations this fall.<br \/>\nChina also has a distant pain threshold and they are not very keen on the Houthis sinking everything they can in the Red Sea, for example, nor on Iran getting carried away \u2013 in fact, China has already asked Iran to sit down and Iran gave China the finger with Russia\u2019s good knowledge.<\/p>\n<p>China had envisioned a pressured Ukraine that agreed to a ceasefire and then started negotiations where UA would eventually have to give up a significant part of the conquered territory. Not all territory so China would look like shining stars in negotiations that gave a little back to UA \u2013 all already agreed with Putin as it should be.<\/p>\n<p>Just as Putin has already agreed with the West on how the negotiations would go, but Zelensky et al have absolutely refused and crashed the whole party.<\/p>\n<p>Autumn 2023 you can decide for yourselves, but I think the USA planned for Zelensky to be weakened after the failed spring offensive where he was forced to attack the best fortified front section in the entire war, and failed, and that there would be negotiations but Zelensky simply refused in the end.<\/p>\n<p>The following coincided in time \u2013 forced attack in the wrong place and against what UA themselves wanted, rumors that negotiations would take place during the fall, super-arrogant peace proposal from Putin, and completely stopped support from the West for 8 months (when everything was in stock ready to be sent). To me, it looks like if the plan wasn\u2019t this, the result would have been the same if it hadn\u2019t been for a Ukraine that never gives up regardless of the odds.<\/p>\n<p>China can\u2019t possibly handle Kursk and the upcoming Bryansk because they have already discussed in terms of what areas want to belong to themselves and now Kursk Peoples Republic is starting its propaganda.<br \/>\nThe heavy bombing with drones is also hard for them to handle because they have never condemned Russia\u2019s terror bombings against Ukraine.<br \/>\nChina has lost quite a bit of credibility and will not be able to be the adult in the room mostly thanks to all of Putin\u2019s mistakes here.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ll see what Biden\u2019s widely announced missile bombings of Russia are for \u2013 either it\u2019s to put pressure on Biden as was preceded in the media, to give Russia a way out of the war, or to pressure China. It\u2019s not bad for Ukraine anyway except that it comes too late and is so announced in advance that Putin can calmly move all aircraft beyond the line now being discussed, which is the maximum range for the ammunition in question. This is especially the first time the USA has chosen to pre-announce something so clearly \u2013 previously it has exploded first and then the decision comes in the media.<\/p>\n<p>If I may guess, the US State Department is starting to get a bit shaky over the fact that the EU is now talking about its own weapons without US components and EU first \u2013 this is something to preempt very quickly if you ask me, and then it\u2019s better that UA wins the war quickly than that long-drawn-out war they wanted since they wouldn\u2019t be able to sell anything in the future anyway \u2013 now I\u2019m just wildly guessing.<\/p>\n<p>I am still worried that the FAB bombers are not being taken out because they cause great damage and are dropped in the hundreds. It\u2019s unclear how the offensive at Sejm went but RU advanced anyway and if that is thanks to RU having kept its air force, it is a disaster.<\/p>\n<p>This war has been allowed to go on for far too long, just like so many other wars have been allowed to go on for far too long, but Ukraine is special in this context because they themselves are well on their way to resolving this and winning over Russia in a fair war.<\/p>\n<p>I will try to stay realistic here, but I think it\u2019s about time to speculate on how long Putin et al. can continue this war \u2013 I also have another post in the works on the subject that is world-leading and will give historians a lot of information.<\/p>\n<p>-Right now Putin is beginning to realize that Trump is a loser and China is also starting to pull back \u2013 their banks are stopping transactions in rubles.<br \/>\n-Putin\u2019s MENA escalation turned into nothing because Iran apparently did not dare to go all in.<br \/>\n-Russia is invaded and he is unable to retake the area, so even Putin probably understands that his defense forces are not as capable as he (perhaps) has been led to believe.<br \/>\n-His deal with the USA has been swept away by Zelensky and with that went predictability.<\/p>\n<p>Zelensky\u2019s latest peace proposal is super slick for everyone except Putin \u2013 Zelensky, a man made of granite.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l3x2anhabb2t\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l3x2anhabb2t<\/a><\/p>\n<p>I think we are slowly reaching the point where it costs significantly more than it\u2019s worth, and this was supposed to be a quick smash-and-grab that massaged Putin\u2019s imperialist ego \u2013 not this nightmare that never ends.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, we have to go through several more stages of the West trying to pressure Ukraine, but so far Zelensky has proven both able to keep a grip on the situation and stand up to the West \u2013 the man has the integrity of our time\u2019s Churchill.<\/p>\n<p>They especially have enough materiel (even though they need more) to not let RU gain the upper hand again.<\/p>\n<p>At some point RU will either simply declare a smashing victory and withdraw from Ukraine because all the nazis\u2026ters are dead and above all to save the children. Alternatively, it will be Swan Lake on TV \u2013 those are the two options we have on the table right now as Zelensky AND Ukraine show that they will never agree to cede territory to Russia but instead have TAKEN territory FROM Russia.<\/p>\n<p>The pessimists can relativize this as much as they want, until very recently the Kursk offensive had failed because RU did not withdraw units from Ukraine according to them. Ukraine is actually holding captured terrain and continues to take more terrain in the area \u2013 looks good to me no matter how you look at it.<\/p>\n<p>Then the strategic offensive reserve is not spent, or it hasn\u2019t even been used, so there is more to come.<\/p>\n<p>Squared &#8211; positive this Thursday morning \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<p>Frontline pre-attack on ammunition depots<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/osinttechnical\/status\/1834000935045194237?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/osinttechnical\/status\/1834000935045194237?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Meklejon with exciting weapon stations<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1833222529210847500?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1833222529210847500?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>13:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>Maybe should post it in the right thread too \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>14:18 \u2013 Johan No.1 We start with the Russian counterattack in Kursk, our guess yesterday about the VDV seems to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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