{"id":9478,"date":"2024-09-13T09:45:07","date_gmt":"2024-09-13T07:45:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-09-13-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T14:30:41","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:30:41","slug":"2024-09-13-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-09-13-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-09-13"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Swedish Armed Forces 1970
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/kalla_kriget\/status\/1834300292843647337?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

RU sources confirm that UA’s flank attack inside the Sejm river is ongoing.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1834357927932477659?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The 810th Marine Infantry is also engaged in combat in Kursk, so this likely means they are attacking broadly across the entire front now in various stages of having started, assuming the maps are not delayed and the 810th has not been moved towards Korenevo. In the coming weeks, we will thus see whether Putin manages to retake terrain in Kursk or if he has a bigger problem on his hands than he currently hopes.<\/p>\n

It seems that the TDF unit that took the full brunt at Korenevo suffered some losses and captives \u2013 a lot on the swamp sites right now but mostly seems to be from that unit.<\/p>\n

If we go by Deepstatemap, which I think is delayed, UA has blocked the “escape route” north of Snagost but it could very well be open for RU flags in Snagost, but it is absolutely very difficult to know when all information is timely right now \ud83d\ude10 It is important to evaluate pieces of information and the credibility of sources and create a situational picture that one feels is as accurate as possible. Everything comes from open sources, both UA and RU, so nothing is unknown to the Russians.<\/p>\n

UA has cut the “Sejm bend” in two and is trying to reach Glushkovo after crossing the border and mine lines at Medvezhe \u2013 we have written about this for a couple of days now.
\nOr they crossed the border at two points, one of which was Medvezhe.<\/p>\n

If you imagine the Russians here, they attacked westward with units inside the Sejm and then from the north with units “outside” the bend. A total of 5-6 brigades, maybe more, maybe fewer.
\nThe units are of course not at full strength and low on armor, but that is no news.<\/p>\n

If we guess a bit now, I think the area down towards Tetkino inside the Sejm is largely abandoned because they used all available barbarians for the eastward attack.<\/p>\n

Now UA has brought up lots of reinforcements \u2013 marines, air-assault, mechanized \u2013 and is probably trying to stop and retake the terrain around Korenevo, and if you go by the unit maps, it will be a massacre of this.<\/p>\n

The unit inside the Sejm bend was initially 1-2 companies from the 110th TDF (I think) but could be anything today \u2013 they could have reinforced with companies or battalions from any of the maneuver brigades and it would be smart warfare to try to widen that breakthrough.<\/p>\n

1-UA will soon have doubled the amount of new legitimate Ukrainian territory in Kursk with this, so instead of Putin retaking terrain, he loses twice as much.
\n2-UA shows how incredibly easy it is to pass the border’s mine lines and fortifications.
\n3-The Russian units north of the Kursk bend are soon exhausted.
\n4-Some unit will not manage to slip back over the pontoon bridges over the Sejm, and that is the VDV and 155th inside there. Whether they give up or are totally shattered remains to be seen.
\n5-In this attack, 25% of RU’s available units in the area around Kursk will be finished.<\/p>\n

Then it gets a bit exciting because there is a Wagner flag in Snagost \u2013 has Belarus sent its 3,000 \u2013 7,000 Wagner (I don’t remember how many\u2026) back \u2013 if so, it means RU unfortunately has some qualified units in the area.<\/p>\n

We know that Belarusian special forces have already fought in Kursk but they ran immediately; we have heard nothing about regular units (yet).<\/p>\n

Towards Kautchuk, UA has continued to take terrain and RU should have started their counterattacks in the area where they attack from the east against UA in Kursk.
\nI think the operational security cover is quite tight right now, but why make an isolated attack where UA can just pool everything and beat them \u2013 it would be smarter to attack everywhere, and at least Russian milbloggers have presented this as counterattacks having started.
\nHowever, I previously guessed that this was an attempt to save the units inside the Sejm river that were trapped \u2013 we will see what becomes of the whole Russian mess in the end, a bit much guessing on my part right now \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

If Putin’s big counterattack doesn’t start soon, it signals that he has big problems, which is great because we are in mid-September now.<\/p>\n

I also suspect that the SU30 loss over the Black Sea was an operation against UA amphibious combat; there are some rumors about boats here and there but the operational security cover is quite tight in the area. Any larger landing would get through the noise quite quickly and become concrete, so raids are probably still ongoing, one might guess?<\/p>\n

Now we have undeniable proof really that the USA has slowed down countries in the EU from sending materiel to Ukraine and deciding themselves how it should be used because the USA is now loudly announcing that they will probably allow Storm Shadow and SCALP to be used against targets in Russia \u2013 then the tin foil hat was off on that, and it does not look good for the USA at all.
\nNow there is full speed on the comments about USA weapons against targets in Russia, so one does not know what is true, but today a decision was supposed to be made at least?
\nThen the USA can always pair that with not sending the ammunition if they want; we don’t know.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/colbybadhwar\/status\/1834287492247191940?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If the USA has now given the EU permission to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow and USA missiles inside Russia, I wonder how effective the ban has been until it was lifted?<\/p>\n

Was it the right decision to deny Ukraine this in an entire war?<\/p>\n

Was it the right decision to release the VDV from Kherson, to stop the invasion of Belgorod 2023, to stop the sinking of the Kerch bridge, to initially prevent refinery attacks, and to protest loudly when Ukraine struck Novorossiysk 2023?<\/p>\n

Or has it only prolonged Ukraine’s suffering?<\/p>\n

Has it been good for us in the EU?<\/p>\n

To go against international law and also force other countries in the EU not to send, one needs to have very good reasons in my opinion \u2013 did the USA have that?<\/p>\n

If they did, one should be able to quickly evaluate the usefulness of the ban as well, but I see zero benefits here, actually rather the opposite \u2013 a prolonged war with a much greater threat to the EU.<\/p>\n

All EU citizens living in the EU should think about this before elevating the USA to the skies.<\/p>\n

And then I think we can reflect once on our leaders in the EU who come up with all kinds of excuses for why materiel is not sent when the truth is that the USA stops them \u2013 shouldn’t we as citizens know this?
\nDenmark has been very open about this throughout the war and pressed on, but Kier Starmer’s infamous letter to the French is a better joke, and I know what I think about Gripen.
\nIt’s a bit like during the Cold War when everyone except Swedish citizens knew everything about the submarine violations really, and it was mostly to protect the politicians themselves that everything was covered up and referred to as national security \u2013 the Soviets knew exactly what was going on, and so did the USA and NATO.
\nThe fact is that some information about the submarine violations we got did not come from our own archives or those involved but from the British, USA, or Russians.<\/p>\n

Now 3rd Assault is reinforcing its defense clearing actions with Dracarys \u2013 violently \ud83d\udca5
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1834198759640535303?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The Russians are starting to get worried about Ukraine’s drone weapons and all the new violent drones
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/mylovanov\/status\/1833585894202479096?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The link is from August 20 but I looked today and it\u2019s starting to look quite sparse with Russians in Belgorod.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1826092700581433689?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This suggests that UA has the numbers on their side in the area and can thus, if they want, start conducting offensive operations.
\nRU has about a dozen brigades left in the area and since they have moved those with remaining capability, quite a few of them are knocked out and above all, there are fewer than UA has in the area.
\nAnd UA has been on the defense so their units are in better shape.<\/p>\n

To me, the entire northern front is starting to look threatening for Putin, RU has in no way stabilized Kursk, they leave Bryansk wide open and weaken Belgorod.<\/p>\n

The only way to solve this is to move +50 brigades up there but they don\u2019t exist, we know that.<\/p>\n

Ukraine also has offensive capacity towards Belarus and since Wagner has been pulled from there, the country is wide open.<\/p>\n

Everything must come at the right time and we impatient desk generals can never hold back but that Ukraine is building up a situation at the northern front that is directly threatening is clear if you look at the unit maps.<\/p>\n

Sirsky has proven to take on the role of Chief of Defense well and is as eager for bold operations as Zalizhny and Zelensky have shown us they can and dare to break out from the USA\u2019s slow strangulation so Putin has every reason to be worried about his northern border.<\/p>\n

Then you understand just like I do that RU units over at Kursk will be heavily decimated in the coming weeks and UA units not nearly as much so sometime in October Putin must make a decision to either send in 20-30 new brigades from UA to stabilize the area or +50 to have any chance to regain terrain.<\/p>\n

High probability that this is just the beginning from UA and right now they are well on their way to doubling the amount of new (legal) Ukrainian territory in Russia \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

-positive-positive thus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

That\u2019s the second thing one is quite annoyed about \u2013 why doesn\u2019t the ENTIRE West hold military exercises right at the Russian border constantly?<\/p>\n

At the start of the war I suggested that Japan should send landing ships towards Russia but never cross the territorial waters boundary so the marine infantry from Vladivostok would have to be sent back on the Trans-Siberian Railway.
\nBut instead the West makes it crystal clear that there is no threat at all to Russia so Putin can leave his entire land border completely unguarded \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Encouraging reading PerraG55 to say the least \ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n

Previously the West, or especially the USA, countered the Russian dips with quite a lot of mandates and bans as well as choking off the material supply.
\nThat they completely cut it off for 8 months from summer 2023 is still not investigated in my opinion, everything was in warehouses and came later so it was active political decisions with a purpose.<\/p>\n

IF it has now changed which we don\u2019t really know yet \u2013 is the West sending material or not right now?
\nThen UA\u2019s situation should improve significantly at once I think?<\/p>\n

Then Ukraine has also really gotten going with domestic production and the EU now delivers newly produced to Ukraine which is paid in cash.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The more I look at Kursk and the northern front the worse it looks for Putin.
\nCan\u2019t be more than days away before UA has taken the entire area inside the Sejm now and doubles the amount of liberated area in Kursk, the penetration at Medvezhe and the other point should spread like a fan.
\nBelgorod looks poorly defended, further east in Belgorod \u2013 even worse defended.
\nBryansk poorly defended and Belarus probably unable to defend as half the army has contact with the volunteer Belarusians in Ukraine and is ready to switch sides.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I don\u2019t think that\u2019s what\u2019s haunting.
\nIt\u2019s that Putin has bought lots of politicians who push his agenda so it\u2019s hard to get a majority.
\nHe has right and left groups controlled so he can create chaos.
\nHe uses criminals and FSB to threaten and silence.<\/p>\n

Politicians are simply unwilling to take on Putin at all, it\u2019s easier for their careers to let Russia be a white spot.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Now maybe I\u2019m too conspiratorial but I have the impression that the apps that have become popular like Skype, WhatsApp and others are the ones that have accepted to let the USA have some backdoor into them?
\nDidn\u2019t all that come out a number of years ago?<\/p>\n

China runs that more openly and demands it or else they can\u2019t be in the country and don\u2019t hide it and same with Russia but in the West we at least try to pretend to be honest.<\/p>\n

Those who refuse die a slow death and never take off except if they market themselves as encryption programs that are impossible like Encrochat which was cracked anyway.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Speaking of the discussion in the thread today, Chatcontrol 2.0 is up for voting again in about a week and it\u2019s dead silent in the media.
\nI am very negative about this and especially negative about certain types of officials and politicians being exempt because the only positive thing about it would have been to see all messages from our politicians \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sorry one more slightly OT \u2013 have you seen the spot price for electricity for tomorrow + wind power at 2% + night temperatures below 10 degrees.<\/p>\n

Is there reason to believe that EU industries are starting to slow down which keeps the electricity price down?<\/p>\n

One thing Putin is just waiting for is for the West to enter a recession.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Putin is starting to get tired of this now \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1834523208239698016?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

From the Kursk offensive August 6-22 and there you see how far they got at the start before they withdrew.
\nI thought they would reach Kursk and they had SOF inside the city but apparently a decision was made that it was too risky.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/TarmoFella\/status\/1826948553169576421<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:46 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d I don\u2019t think it will be quite that easy at Kursk but they will probably be able to get their hands on the area south of the river!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:02 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now I actually have to ask a question to you who are initiated because there are now two videos, one where Biden puts on a Trump cap and one where he has a MAGA cap in his hand as he boards the plane.<\/p>\n

Are the videos AI fake, are they real and if they are real \u2013 why is Biden doing this?
\nWhat election in what, 50 days and the country’s president wants to show himself with election propaganda for the Republicans?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

damn, maybe a bit too OT here but I have poor impulse control.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:47 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

He probably wore it as a symbol of unity in connection with 9\/11.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:48 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

https:\/\/omni.se\/a\/LM6v6Q<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

That\u2019s the rumor I haven\u2019t dared to jump on yet, Erik14 has posted it too.
\nMXT was probably waiting for that \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s why I\u2019ve been jumping up and down for a few days now, the whole area behind the Sejm is about to be captured, the Russian offensive near Kursk is going badly and UA has opened new attack vectors \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

He seems informed so maybe it\u2019s time to move that rumor up a notch.<\/p>\n

It coincides with the arrival of three new brigades in the area, by the way.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:59 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

What, did I miss Erik14? Oh well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

\u201dOur picture (?) that the attack was carried out with forces held mostly in reserve is not confirmed:\u201d<\/p>\n

On the contrary \u2013 our picture was that units from other fronts were used just as you say, they have not touched the strategic reserve for this, it remains and will appear elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Yes \u2013 UA has in 2024 learned to break through mine lines and fortifications and they proved it in Kursk.<\/p>\n

The TDF unit took a heavy hit the other day and sure Ukraine is taking losses but percentage-wise they inflict more on RU. But\u2026 the FAB bombs MUST go, the US\u2019s braking is a disaster \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n

CNN is a week behind \u2013 yes UA is not advancing further in that bulge but they are taking the whole area behind the Sejm and have opened a new attack vector into Russia further north.
\nTheir conclusion is wrong, the problems looming are for Putin.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Very nice Harris ad in swing states with Poles and Ukrainians<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1834578213911118330?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:41 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Nice! But when you wrote swimstates I expected to see DenGamle in diving gear\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

It\u2019s coming, right now he\u2019s a bike sniper on the gravel roads around Terekino.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
22:21 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

We both know he doesn\u2019t bike but for the uninitiated who don\u2019t know about the moped engine he mounted on the walker, it\u2019s easy to believe it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:33 \u2013 Johan No.1 Swedish Armed Forces 1970 https:\/\/x.com\/kalla_kriget\/status\/1834300292843647337?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w RU sources confirm that UA’s flank attack inside the Sejm river 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