{"id":9484,"date":"2024-09-16T11:02:57","date_gmt":"2024-09-16T09:02:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-09-16-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T14:31:41","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:31:41","slug":"2024-09-16-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-09-16-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-09-16"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

14:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Mech Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1835398957360676871?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Yesterday it emerged that UA has tapped into the strategic reserve and that it is the ranger corps fighting in Tetkino. This also signals UA’s level of ambition.
\nApparently, there are 700 Azov left in captivity, so with a bit of luck, they can scoop up FSB and conscripts behind the Sejm enough to make a difference.<\/p>\n

Here you possibly have how it looks on the map and also “RU has begun moving units from the eastern side of the bulge over to Rylsk”.
\nThat means one of two things \u2013 things are going badly and they are trying to defend further north, or they are adding more offensive capacity to be pushed into the existing offensive operation.
\nAlso note that just as we guessed, offensive operations are ongoing around the entire bulge right now \u2013 RU counteroffensive is underway.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/casualdiot\/status\/1835239066767405337?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Both UA and RU are trying to get inside the opponent’s decision cycle, come up with their own brilliant moves and counter the opponent’s. I think RU’s offensive where they transferred offensive capacity across the Sejm river was quite smart, but UA’s counterattack from Medvezhe was too.<\/p>\n

Now I want to return to a discussion that many have opposed but that MXT has also pushed hard, that UA has only received just enough to keep their noses above water and had to fight with one hand tied behind their back.
\nYes, I thought the chaos in Belgorod would develop into this in 2023 because it could have \u2013 there were +10 brigades with strong bite up there but the West immediately pulled out red cards \u2013 we know this because Zelensky has confirmed it. They faced 24 FSB customs officers and then it was completely empty.<\/p>\n

In 2022, the US stopped VDV from being involved in Kherson, Putin played the nuclear card and Zelensky had to let them go \u2013 we know this because Zelensky has confirmed it.
\nThe Kerch Bridge, the US also said UA is not allowed to cut \u2013 that has also come out.
\nThe spring offensive 2023 would have gone better but no air support, no air defense, and the US heavily controlled the most fortified part in the whole world.<\/p>\n

Then the West stopped sending materiel altogether for 8 months, we have often returned to this even though no one in the West wants to reveal what was behind that decision, they stonewall completely.
\nHere Zelensky confirms how bad it actually was, they emptied all the depots and took weapons from brigades under formation so that the maneuver brigades would have enough, those are probably the 14 brigades Zelensky always talks about.<\/p>\n

The West has denied Ukraine having 14 brigades to deploy now and EVERYTHING_IS_IN_STOCK\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1835337869772152921?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Highlights from Zelensky’s speech
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1835405808773087689?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine did NOT know how Kursk would go, they took a calculated risk because they saw where this was heading and now this has been posted in the thread but Zelensky’s smile says it all \u2013 they got the payout they hoped for and realized it quite early, Zelensky looks almost happy \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/GAMZIRI24\/status\/1821454409575874739<\/a><\/p>\n

At the first breakthrough, their best brigades did not participate so it was reasonable to assume they had more in reserve and now we are beginning to see the strategic reserve entering the battle.<\/p>\n

Yes, the F-16 and FAB bomb droppers were probably the critical line \u2013 we guessed that many times and UA struck against the airfields so the frequency of FAB dropped for a while but now they are back with 3000-4000 bombs per month.<\/p>\n

It is starting to become a bit urgent that UA shoots them away now actually \u2013 if this is held in for too long it can affect the war.<\/p>\n

However, UA also has access to the northern front and is dropping JDAMS in Kursk – that, in a high-priority area for RU \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

Our PBV302 have been in place for a long time, I saw some information about when they were moved but did not post it because I am world-leading in seagull.
\nThe Baltic states are sending everything they can now, M113 and apparently they have 200 Scimitars also on the way.
\nAnd some other things have been put in place so quite a few countries are responding to Ukraine’s pleas for hard vehicles.
\nIf anyone remembers the proposal to deliver 15,000 \u2013 20,000 hard vehicles so they could trade ground for vehicles so that infantry could be delivered protected, then we are probably not too far from that now even if I think it is starting to be showers of deliveries instead of steady downpour.<\/p>\n

Here you have a brigade training in Poland that will get Leo 2A4.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l4bf54444w2e<\/a><\/p>\n

Those 14 brigades have probably received quite a lot of materiel now but they also have to be trained on it, but strategic offensive reserve capability still exists besides existing units at the fronts.
\nUkraine now produces 16 Bohdana wheeled howitzers per month which should keep the artillery brigades alive.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/Maks_NAFO_FELLA\/status\/1835281914170618268<\/a><\/p>\n

They seem to get a few hundred fragmentation vests at a time which should be enough for one brigade at a time.<\/p>\n

I wondered where the 1st Presidential Brigade would show up and they are fighting in Pokrovsk with a high level of delousing.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/DefenceU\/status\/1835302799753773232<\/a><\/p>\n

Then the 3rd Azov is up in the Kharkiv area now so maybe my guesses are not completely wrong \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1835346283101323624<\/a><\/p>\n

Note here that Putin has gone from nuclear threats to threats of subversive activities \u2013 maybe the West is more worried about that?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1834842091471470684?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

China’s nuclear test 1964, not much protection there \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/historyinmemes\/status\/183488655639122750<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine wants to buy 12 Ahkp intended for Slovakia if the US approves. They have been exported to all sorts of countries so it will be interesting to see what the US says.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1834900150575415527?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

RU sources claim they have taken (retaken) Uspenovka and Lyubemovka but it looks like quite dangerous wedges with potential for a rat trap.
\nThe ranger corps seems to be pressing from Tetkino and probably they have also entered via the Medvezhe penetration because we have seen Humvee columns and they should have it.<\/p>\n

UA is trying to reach Glushkove and Zvanoe so they cut off units west of there.
\nThe RU advance towards Lyubemovka may be in danger if UA comes north of Korenevo.<\/p>\n

I suspect there has been more inside the Sejm than the unit maps show \u2013
\n-RU sources talk about border troops and FSB.
\n-Early on some Kadyrovites got hit.
\n-155th was there and 51st Airborne.
\n-A battalion from the 200th Arctic was wiped out.
\n-Russian Airforce MRR was supposed to be there and maybe also units from 810th and additional VDV.
\n-22nd MRR is also supposed to be in the area but whether it is inside the Sejm is unclear.<\/p>\n

RU should in that case have sneaked their units across the bridges.<\/p>\n

Right now it looks suspicious with UA having numerical and qualitative superiority in the area but RU possibly occupies (retakes) Lyubemovka so maybe that\u2019s true.<\/p>\n

That means RU will have lost quite a few units when this is over and it\u2019s better that way for them.<\/p>\n

We have seen quite a lot of armored vehicles delivered by the smaller countries in the EU but the bigger ones like France have been quiet \u2013 they have thousands of VAB vehicles they can send and their AMX-10s.<\/p>\n

The USA could open the floodgates to Sierra and send thousands of vehicles but they don\u2019t.<\/p>\n

At Medvezhe, Ukraine showed that they can pass border fortifications and RU showed that they only have border units at inactive borders.
\nUkraine can continue making incursions along the borders indefinitely if they want.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see what the result is of Zelensky\u2019s meeting with Biden \u2013 it feels a bit like Zelensky has taken the lead here and wants to tell the USA what to do so we\u2019ll see if the USA will do the right thing or behave like a bully. They are probably still a bit annoyed over the Kursk offensive, I imagine.<\/p>\n

By now, the EU and USA should see that RU does not have the capability to throw Ukraine out of Russia and then logically all negotiations should be about the 1991 borders, otherwise both sides would have to keep what they have conquered.<\/p>\n

Then we sincerely hope that no one from the West utters the forbidden words ceasefire or armistice. RU will probably declare it unilaterally and the West should not follow.<\/p>\n

I also took a look at how it looks for example down by the Kreminna forests and the Russian side is quite thinned out actually.<\/p>\n

Very well described by my cousin Accentmannen from the start of the RU counteroffensive. Between the lines, I think you can read that UA has botched attempts to cross watercourses and keep supply routes open. Posted by some modern genius in the thread today whoever it was.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/kkC9YmR4KIc?si=mJEdFow386ovyYjx<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Between spring 2023 and the turn of the year 2023\/2024, nothing was delivered from either the USA or the EU. Ukraine protested loudly all autumn and the guns fell silent due to lack of ammunition. Everything was stopped and Zelensky himself confirms this in one of the links above actually.<\/p>\n

Starting in January 2024, the EU with France in the lead began promising everything again and deliveries started and during the spring they got a lot but overall almost nothing was delivered during 8 months.<\/p>\n

What UA needs is a large amount of fragmentation protection that can deliver shooters protected in fortification systems and then be sacrificed in the worst case \u2013 UA needs to feel that they have enough. I think they have received more than they reveal actually if you sum it up but they are now losing a lot and the West must replace.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:25 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for the wall! <\/p>\n

I basically agree with you, but I\u2019m still a bit worried that Ukraine has had to retreat more there in Kursk than I had hoped.
\nOn the other hand, they have drones in the air and must have seen it coming and been prepared.<\/p>\n

They probably haven\u2019t had to take large losses and hopefully have managed to get better protected defensive lines further back so they can hold out until the Russians get Ukraine in the back from the western side.<\/p>\n

There have been news about deliveries now and then in recent months (also from the USA), hopefully it\u2019s enough. It\u2019s those damn FABs that must go. If long-range weapons aren\u2019t allowed, then even more LVs must be sent so Ukraine dares to place them closer to the front. Costly of course if you have to sacrifice a Patriot or similar but I think the USA should cover that in that case.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

1st and 2nd AC in very bad condition (expected)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/chriso_wiki\/status\/1835588885528617075?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I don\u2019t think we have the full picture \u2013
\nSince RU has tried to cross bridges and a single supply route they have probably taken enormous losses.<\/p>\n

But yes, they came right into UA\u2019s back when the TDF unit folded.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

That was quite interesting Borjesson, what we can say for sure by now is that the USA has a hidden motive.
\nA bit like Scholz Taurus where all motives were confiscated with lies but he still refuses \u2013 what is the real hidden motive.<\/p>\n

Many say China but I also don\u2019t think the USA wants too strong an EU because it wasn\u2019t that many years ago they had to land in Normandy to sort out the mess.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Ukraine has also learned to clear minefields \u2013
\nThey have mine plows, mine rollers, mine sweepers and the soldiers have a completely different understanding of the mine weapon.
\nThen the drones can see the mines at dusk with IR when they are warmer than the ground and get the GPS coordinates on the map.<\/p>\n

Down at the southern front I joked about weak points and that Ukraine would find them and attack there which didn\u2019t happen but I think they have handled the northern front\u2019s mine lines in a completely different way and now in 2024 can handle the mine weapon.<\/p>\n

And that there are fewer mines left, no 10km deep here.<\/p>\n

Which points to the USA\u2019s big betrayal \u2013 they should have let Ukraine thunder into the northern oblasts in 2023 instead of the Surovikin line.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

There are zero Ukrainian losses (almost) on the swamp sites and more Russian losses.
\nAlso seems like RU lied (unexpected) about Borki.<\/p>\n

I have also already announced that when the week is over UA will have captured the area behind Sejm and then it must happen, anything else is unreasonable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The Russian losses are not on the swamp sites but you probably understood that?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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