{"id":9490,"date":"2024-09-19T11:07:42","date_gmt":"2024-09-19T09:07:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-09-19-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T14:32:43","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:32:43","slug":"2024-09-19-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-09-19-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-09-19"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Got a selfie on WhatsApp from Dengamle where he was completely smudged on the face and had this facial expression \ud83d\ude32
\nAnd then the text “On Wisconsin \u270a” whatever that means?<\/p>\n

Now RU has probably been fighting for a week or more in their counteroffensive inside Sejm, I am incredibly bad at keeping track of dates and one really should have had an Excel sheet with all important dates but at best I managed to keep track of refinery attacks \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Inside behind Sejm RU has had 155th, 51st, border troops, FSB, at least one battalion from 200th Arctic and part or whole MRR. Possibly also part of 810th and then that damn MRR from Russian Airforce.<\/p>\n

It is not entirely clear who is fighting south of Sejm and who is holding the line north of the Sejm river.
\nTheir task has partly been offensive operations eastward which gave them Liubimovka but they have attacked in lowlands and UA has held the dominant terrain.
\nThen they have attacked southwest towards Uspenovka which is highland.
\nAnd then they are also trying to stop the fan spreading from the offensive from Medvezhe where UA attacks with a couple of brigades and where UA stands in dominant terrain.<\/p>\n

Beyond Liubimovka there are 3-4 UA brigades in defense but they also have to defend north where RU attacks with other units.<\/p>\n

So RU has attacked with 4-6 brigades over a week where UA has stood in dominant terrain \u2013 they should have taken enormous losses by now.<\/p>\n

The point I want to make is that if these units are not rotated very soon UA should be able to cut through them.
\nAnd we have no information about attempts to cross pontoon bridges or new RU units in the area and that usually comes quite quickly on Twitter.
\nUkraine has 24hr observation over Sejm and the bridges
\nSo far it still looks very good and likely that UA will capture the area behind Sejm \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

A good part of the units we see around the Kursk bulge are from the first week, second week, third week etc. and far from full strength.
\nCould RU have deployed their best reserves for the offensive behind Sejm, only 2nd Spetznaz and a VDV regiment have not really been involved in the Sejm offensive.<\/p>\n

Sometimes you wonder if CV90 has the ability to multiply, present with 21st and 22nd Mech and 225th Assault battalion, and at least 6 have been lost.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ralee85\/status\/1836409183496757461?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Did you know that Sweden has sent PBV501, I did not know that and I thought they were sold but Oryx has marked them as Swedish.<\/p>\n

PBV401 Finland probably got to buy for scrap value after we fixed them up in top condition, we rarely make good deals.<\/p>\n

7 Strv122 have also been lost so the remaining 3 are often seen.
\nEverything is in open sources by the way.<\/p>\n

That is also why we see CV90 all the time in Kursk because all units fight there \u2013 better return on my tax money I have probably never felt and right back at you for Svensksund Russian bastards when you get showered in 40mm bullet explosions \ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

It seems like China is on the brink of a full crash here
\nhttps:\/\/www.di.se\/nyheter\/fastighetskrisen-forvarras-i-kina\/<\/a>
\nI don\u2019t think they will be eager to take on economic sanctions to support Russia so room for the West to increase pressure on Russia accordingly.
\nWe can probably also discard the theory that China can influence in the background because if they have a real estate crash in the making their risk list is in the red and the last thing they need is sanctions directed at themselves.<\/p>\n

Peacemaker to Budanov.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/trinzu\/status\/1836329523043856486?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

It has recently come out that RU can produce large quantities of missiles again. China and the West help as best they can here because smuggling we don\u2019t even try to stop and export routes now only go via -stan instead and nobody cares.
\nRU will therefore always be able to carry out large missile attacks on UA and the only thing that will hold them back is if UA does the same to them which they do but Western missiles would help.
\nBut they don\u2019t get them from the USA, the same USA that contributes 70% of the components in the Russian missiles.
\nYes worth highlighting every day really.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/warmonitor3\/status\/1836479452899066141?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Australia continues to sell its surplus equipment to everyone except UA, this is a mystery to me since UA has cash but no one wants to sell and new contracts are not easy for them to get either. It is only when Western countries themselves instigate that it works.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/warinthefuture\/status\/1836520392607043892?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Haven\u2019t had time to see but possibly interesting
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l4iuvgcczc2k<\/a><\/p>\n

A plane full of blind Hezbo\u2026ah on the way to Iran. Terror attack or stroke of genius depends a bit on where an ideology lies it seems if you follow the debate in Sweden.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1836513414753194388?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Below is an interesting list of what has happened recently from David D
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1836400805148057813?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Those of you who have followed for a while remember the thirty (30) attack divers who fought to the last man on a hill outside Kharkiv.
\nAlmost topped by three (3) submariners who surrendered in Kursk.
\nThese are specialists who take years to train and now we have also heard many stories about drone operators running across fields.
\nSelf-purging simply and actually completely incomprehensible.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1836521216934580308?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

India has indirectly and with the government\u2019s consent sent large quantities of 155mm to Ukraine. Unclear if it is part of the Czechs\u2019 initiative or in addition to that.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ralee85\/status\/1836646447128723910?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Now all focus is on Kursk and the clearing of the area behind Sejm but an INCREDIBLE amount of negative things are happening for Putin right now, every day is a bad morning at his morning briefing and there are probably fights already in the corridor about who will deliver the bad news.
\nNothing is going well and Kursk will continue to be Ukrainian even after Putin\u2019s deadline \u2013 they simply cannot handle this.
\nHe who dares wins has exactly never worked for me but it seems to work for Ukraine \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:23 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for today\u2019s post! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Thank you general.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Following Ofredrik\u2019s initiative above \u2013 FED cut the interest rate twice 1.5 months before the presidential election.
\nIs that right or wrong?
\nWe have the concept of “election pork” in Sweden which every government has used since Gustav Vasa so maybe hard to avoid?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The EU Parliament has adopted a resolution calling on all EU countries to lift restrictions on Western weapons against Russian targets \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

This must be a biggie, now it is ONLY Biden left who is resisting here, he has the whole EU against him even though it is up to each nation to heed the call.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I’m a bit late to the ball but we were out drinking frappuccino so I haven’t followed the thread as I should have.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:09 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

I’m not keeping up either, I scrolled from the bottom so you were first!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

A true wingman \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:19 \u2013 Johan No.1 Got a selfie on WhatsApp from Dengamle where he was completely smudged on the face and 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