{"id":9494,"date":"2024-09-17T10:34:45","date_gmt":"2024-09-17T08:34:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-09-17-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T14:32:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:32:50","slug":"2024-09-17-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-09-17-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-09-17"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If this is correct in Kursk, the upcoming additional offensives look good<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/vyshnyaostap\/status\/1835793447698989248?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Looks good! That map was very positive compared to DeepStateMap! \ud83d\udc4d
\nDid you draw it yourself? <\/p>\n

Joking aside, the left offensive should not be a problem, the other one depends a bit on how much the Russians can manage to deploy. But if the map is correct, they must have a hard time getting reinforcements past Korenevo. <\/p>\n

Really hope the map and reality match!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, I made it myself \u2013 have to back up my claim of capturing Sejm before the week ends.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Idiotic angle on this so trying to preempt it \u2013
\nThe military leaders see this from a military strategic perspective and are against it.
\nZelensky sees political and motivational advantages that outweigh the risks they are forced to take.
\nEverything is as it should be.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1835972969547366741?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:11 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Yes, completely unnecessary and stupid to bring that up! <\/p>\n

Sounds more like made-up stuff, something an American news site would write about and refer to “secret sources within the Ukrainian army”.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:28 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, then you\u2019ll probably have to push hard, I think it will take at least another week.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now this is Igor so some caution is recommended but he writes “active fighting” along the border north of the Kursk bulge. Then we have evacuation and a rumor from Hasse\u2019s source about an attack vector or reconnaissance fight along road 101.
\nWe also have at least three brigades that have been discussed as being in place but we know they are not in Kursk or Kharkiv because they don\u2019t show up on the maps.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1835746537118536014?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We get two pictures of Kursk right now \u2013 one showing RU advancing and one where UA is doing well and historically Accentmannen has often been right \u2013 he thinks it\u2019s going great. That blog Hasse posts is also positive and he seems to know because he has better situation maps than we do.<\/p>\n

I am positive \u2013 and have already announced that Ukraine will take the area behind Sejm in about a week and then everything else must happen, otherwise it would be unreasonable.<\/p>\n

What I can say for sure is that the swamp sites don\u2019t have many prisoners or knocked-out UA equipment to show after the TDF brigade that took the first hit.
\nThen there is also the terrain \u2013 RU must try to get everything across pontoon bridges or a single access road and UA fell on them from behind. RU has the terrain against them and a counterattack in the rear to handle.<\/p>\n

What is needed now is for UA to get momentum in the third attack vector from Tetkino where the Ranger corps is wreaking havoc.
\nNot very worried about the eastern flank of the bulge because there they can retreat behind the watercourse and then Sudza should be a fortress according to earlier reports.
\nTo the north they seem to hold some dominant terrain so the situation behind Sejm must be cleared and the dug-in Russians removed.<\/p>\n

According to yesterday, there seem to be two pontoon bridges and yes, one conclusion you can draw from this is that if you just have a hell of a lot of bridging equipment and engineers you can maintain some continuity even if you lose bridges \u2013 something for the West to keep in mind when the manuals are rewritten after this war.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/the_lookout_n\/status\/1835748974718067090?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The Medvezhe offensive has not yet crossed the main defensive line in the area \u2013 we want to see that soon and not that they get stuck.<\/p>\n

That Rylsk district is to be evacuated of civilians signals that things are not going well at all.<\/p>\n

I stand by my belief that the Russians have had more units in the area than we have been led to believe but that they have been thinned out quite a bit and probably we will see major map changes this week.
\nThen UA will move further north and pair that with incursions across the border because if they have proven anything now it is that they master breakthroughs of minefields and well-built fortifications this year 2024.<\/p>\n

There should now be 38,000 at Kursk and according to earlier info maybe 20% \u2013 25% involved in the current offensive?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ralee85\/status\/1835533377807487247?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I think the attrition rate has been high since they have to advance over pontoon bridges and along a single road that runs parallel 4 km from UA lines which is like a damn shooting range.<\/p>\n

But we know RU drops 4000 FABs per month and now we know they have greatly increased rocket production.
\nThis is an old argument from 2023 already \u2013 back then there were 12 military bases just north of the border with Ukraine where vehicles stood in the hundreds on staging areas and they were in large barracks and ammunition depots. There the next brigade was prepared for deployment in Ukraine and at the start of the Kharkiv offensive 2024 they moved calmly up to the border and only there did Ukraine get to strike them.<\/p>\n

PREDICTABLE and convenient for Putin thanks to the USA.<\/p>\n

During 2022 the units just fled across to the Russian side of the border and were immediately safe from Ukraine which was not allowed to cross it.
\nFor Ukraine to capitalize maximally on Kursk they must get permission, and ammunition, to strike all these bases and other high-value targets inside Russian territory.<\/p>\n

They have now presented the list to Biden and a month-long campaign would cause ammunition shortages, fuel exhaustion and no reserves as well as no FABs.
\nThe rockets are in storage and the brake is political.
\nAfter that, when there are no more reserves, maybe Putin will be dark enough to want to declare a grand victory and leave Ukraine.
\nOr Ukraine can continue pushing the Russians out step by step and see if any of the steps like the Azov thrust are enough for the Russians to pull back.<\/p>\n

But regardless of that, it is smart warfare to hit the logistics hard now in 2023 just like they did in 2022 so Kherson fell \u2013 that the USA is holding back is hard to understand.<\/p>\n

Krunky was of course training for larger landings and if you remember the big campaign plan UA was to land with battalion size at suitable locations under their own artillery umbrella and then air, army aviation and indirect fire would wipe out the task forces as they came rolling on the highway.
\nThis year we have to add the drone weapon but the concept stands.
\nThere are endless suitable places along the Dnieper and the shore towards the Black Sea before Crimea where they can land, go on defense and then wipe out everything that comes nearby.
\nThey probably learned not to hold too long at Krunky because at some point the Russians get everything in order and can start causing damage.
\nAlready today raids are in full swing and 10-15 vehicles so bigger operations.
\nRU brought the 76th GAAD to the area as offensive reserve which makes it a bit harder but they also die on the highway just like everyone else.<\/p>\n

I feel that we have witnessed an Adolf being born and rising to the skies with Putin \u2013 exactly the same tendencies and actions, and if we go by history, he is beyond all salvation \u2013 straight into the wall.
\nStraight into the wall is also something very Russian that is often followed by a huge crash.
\nWhy they did not declare victory and returned to plundering the country Russia is a mystery to me, but they did not.
\nHas that train left, I don’t know.<\/p>\n

I think we are beginning to see early signs that Putin can no longer plug the holes in the leaking sieve, he is unable to retake Kursk.
\nHe has had to abandon the Pokrovsk offensive.
\nThe artillery had to be moved.<\/p>\n

Apparently, the LPR and DPR army corps, 1st and 2nd AC (as they were called before), are critically low on everything including personnel.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/chriso_wiki\/status\/1835588885528617075?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

They have been at the front the whole war and sacrificed themselves for nothing.
\nApparently, there is a glaring lack of mobilizable personnel in the new Russian republics, and when Ukraine attacked at Opytne before they lost the entire Avdiivka area, there was some DPR brigade that was only 200 strong, malnourished, and that ran immediately.
\nUp to Kursk, Putin has sent his best 38,000 troops in units.
\nWhat remains at the fronts is worse.<\/p>\n

Yes, there are 700,000 in Ukraine (according to reports) but that is far from the elite.
\nIt is vital that Ukraine can maintain the pressure now, and to be able to do that the West needs to \u2013
\n-support Ukraine and not propose ceasefires
\n-provide heavy vehicles, ammunition, air defense, elite aircraft, training.
\nMostly, whoever has the most bullets wins.
\nBut then Ukraine needs hope, the soldiers at the fronts who are ready to sacrifice themselves need hope. The US’s slow strangulation was very demoralizing for the Ukrainians but now with Kursk, they are lively again.<\/p>\n

If Putin gets an out now in 2024, I will conclude that this is rigged but we are absolutely not there yet.<\/p>\n

Sitting and looking at different scenarios and realizing that the season when the ground bearing capacity is poor is an opportunity for UA in Pokrovsk and Dnepr, and the Bandvagn 206 will be good for that.<\/p>\n

If you have seen the film of the 3rd Azov fights in Kharkiv, it is open fields and not the cities where RU has pushed in. I wonder what they are up to up there \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Interesting from Accentmannen that the attack on the oil rig was after RU fired at a civilian vessel.
\nSince there were 14 smaller vessels with air defense protection, it probably means they have quite good resources ready to be deployed because that operation came very quickly.<\/p>\n

A satellite image from Engels on September 14 suggests many high-value targets at the base.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/mt_anderson\/status\/1835811761326330217?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Lots of stories about drone pilots becoming shooters now \u2013 self-cleansing
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l4dlkudle42u<\/a><\/p>\n

Just like with the amphibious fight where Ukraine has now learned and is learning, they have tested breakthroughs of defensive lines up in Kursk and a new tactic with a lot of movement\/maneuver warfare that completely confuses the Russians.
\nYes, they practice and learn just like everyone else, and the breakthroughs went brilliantly and now we will see how the maneuver warfare goes.
\nFrom Erik14
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/AndySch64494719\/status\/1835929104123646187<\/a><\/p>\n

They drove companies directly in wheeled splinter protection that could move fast, and if they have good control of the area through drone reconnaissance, it could become hell for RU but it is crucial to have the information advantage and not rush straight into an ambush behind minefields.<\/p>\n

They have previously led clearing of trenches with drones which has given UA total superiority but my god how difficult it must be with \u201cright, left, east, west\u201d etc. probably takes a while before it gets right.<\/p>\n

Something for those of you who still claim that the Ukrainian army is so-so, this type of mobile warfare is enormously demanding.<\/p>\n

And that the Russians get completely confused on the sidelines of this we can assume \u2013 they have not shown competence in this during an entire war and need static lines and known UA positions that they can concentrate forces against one at a time.
\nBig things are happening as said, UA is now running its dress rehearsal for how Ukraine will be liberated \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

This one is VERY interesting that RU (maybe) will try to carry out terrorist attacks just before the election to give Trump an advantage. Now Kamala has also promised that no US soldiers are in war zones which will be a hard position to defend if a few hundred die in Syria or Yemen \u2013 now in hindsight when there has been a big discussion about fact-checking in the ABC debate.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/bonchieredstate\/status\/1834921553982607522?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We KNOW that when going through the markets after major terrorist attacks or attacks, it is not uncommon that someone\/some have taken positions that go up on bad news.
\nMaybe I remember wrong but airlines were shorted around 9\/11?
\nIf you have the capacity, you can influence and you can also make enormous sums on it \u2013 insider trading on a global level.
\nIt is not uncommon that before political decisions that affect the markets it is known beforehand and you can see it afterwards in the movements in the affected markets. Or when Cyprus was going to introduce capital controls and you saw it in international transfers days before.
\nAnd so on.
\nAnd Russia also engages in this because they can.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/realjakebroe\/status\/1835558778441490514?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I still cannot understand Biden’s motives here because Russia is directly inside and jabbering against the US’s soft parts whether he wants it or not.<\/p>\n

Will Kursk be Putin’s reverse Stalingrad.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Some thoughts below, brainstorming wildly.<\/p>\n

High probability that PerraG55 will come in with corrections here \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

So how is the condition of the mafia clan that happened to get a country \u2013 Russia?
\nWe basically have three phases \u2013
\nThe fall of the Soviet Union and the oligarchs’ chance at the meat pots for real with full access to all the cool stuff in the West that they were denied during the Cold War except in diplomatic functions.
\nPutin’s imperial ambitions until 2022
\nThe start of the war and until today.<\/p>\n

When the war started and until really 2024, it was a “special operation” on another territory’s land and even though it has been sweaty at times, the West ensured that too much of the war did not come to Russia through all the decrees, red lines, and yellow cards. It is my impression that this was something Putin could handle internally, yes the army is worthless but we take measures and will win, and then it went on.<\/p>\n

The Black Sea Fleet was Ukraine’s first big slap on Putin, he was supposed to get SWIFT back to avoid starting piracy in the Black Sea, he had agreed with the West on that, and then Ukraine goes and sinks his fleet without its own fleet, but that was also manageable.<\/p>\n

The refineries stung and probably still sting much more than we are led to believe but it is not really seen by the broad masses since they are located remotely.<\/p>\n

The invasion of Kursk was becoming unmanageable and, above all, uncertainty was introduced \u2013 that Ukraine no longer does what the USA and Germany tell them to do, which is deadly because then anything can suddenly happen and that was absolutely not part of the deal with the USA.<\/p>\n

Then the protected airfields began to be targeted, that audacity must have made Putin absolutely furious, he had a_deal_with_usa and yet his elite aircraft went up in smoke, damn deal breakers and the dishonesty is total with the USA.<\/p>\n

And now drones are buzzing over Moscow for every citizen to see \u2013 will it ever end, probably not, Putin thinks as he sits there with a headache.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is now starting to spread all kinds of information and since they no longer do what the USA tells them to do, everything is on the table \u2013 Ukraine has long-range ballistic missiles, Ukraine might be making its own nuclear weapons, Ukraine might liberate Belarus, Ukraine might start a revolution in the republics and so on, and what is true or not is hard to know after the invasion of Russia, right?<\/p>\n

Predictability is gone and it was that which allowed Russia to control the situation somewhat.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine plays its cards right and the West does not let itself be talked down, maybe Russia will start feeling that it\u2019s time to leave Ukraine alone?<\/p>\n

That is also what Zelensky says in his peace plan \u2013 if the West gives the right support, peace will come quite quickly, Zelensky has slowly started to take the helm if you have noticed. He is probably burning his goodwill in the West but is doing what is best for the country Ukraine, which every politician should always do \u2013 what is best for the country (big hint to our seven parties).<\/p>\n

When the Soviet Union fell, enterprising Russians could start living the luxury life in the West for real, pre-1989 it was quite limited for them. They could now funnel thousands of billions through our banking systems (which give us a trial if we try to deposit 10,000 SEK in cash), they could buy companies, homes, put their children in the best schools and the wives (because there are still quite a few male oligarchs who are unequal as they are) could shop on the finest shopping streets in the world.<\/p>\n

Yes, everyone had a role in a system that seems to function like a criminal clan but they got serious personal dividends and could live like gods.<\/p>\n

Suddenly they were no longer drunken and severely overweight Russians but men who were well-trained, could conduct themselves, had class and wives who lived on treadmills. Their children could be that measured polite and social that only children of parents with unlimited money and open doors to the best education and classmates can be.<\/p>\n

Londongrad became an established term.<\/p>\n

Some oligarchs cultivated that they were Putin-negative but when the war started in 2022 it turned out that everyone had a role \u2013 they were still loyal to Putin.<\/p>\n

2010 or whenever Putin really started to advance positions was met with a yawn and 2014 went well. Further operations in Ukraine were seen by the siloviki and oligarchs as a chance for a quick smash-and-grab and all of Ukraine\u2019s wealth would give them a serious cash influx after some fighting and much death.<\/p>\n

That Putin wanted the punitive expedition had to be tolerated but there was apparently some concern among some of the smarter bigwigs.<\/p>\n

After 2022 almost everything has crashed and Russia as a country has begun to see itself isolated as under the Soviet Union again without domestic production capacity and China is advancing against the arch-racist Russia.<\/p>\n

Yes, it has probably been done before because the Russian empire until the revolution had access to all the fun in Europe but this must be quite an unpleasant cold shower for oligarchs and siloviki.
\nA bit like going bankrupt personally \u2013 you had everything and a while later you have nothing.<\/p>\n

Then we have the mentality of a criminal clan \u2013 you are leader as long as you are strong.<\/p>\n

There are tensions in Russia \u2013 vodka run, half of the MoD discharged, suicidal oligarchs and lots we never hear about because we don\u2019t have full insight.<\/p>\n

Putin has so far had the FSB on his side it seems and he is paranoid enough to be able to run ahead of problems.<\/p>\n

The FSB and the other letter agencies have their units for murder and considering how many die in Russia and abroad, a fatwa from Putin or his circle is hard to survive.<\/p>\n

Then we have the whole system with gulags and that your entire fortune is confiscated if you fall out of favor, a bit like the circle around medieval kings and it works.<\/p>\n

Putin has secured total obedience but he is not alone, he is part of a circle of siloviki as we have learned from PerraG55 and his extended arm is the FSB and other letter agencies.
\nI guess a regime change will come from the siloviki group or the FSB, or them together.<\/p>\n

Russia is not a country with a direct popular revolution BUT groups can do a 1917 again and it is simmering with all liberation movements in various republics.<\/p>\n

Then we have provinces that can free themselves 1989 style \u2013 you declare independence at a moment when it cannot have consequences and it is obvious that it will not have consequences.<\/p>\n

We have Belarus which should already have fallen (been liberated) if Putin had not rushed in internal troops.
\nAnd we have Kaliningrad.<\/p>\n

Already today we know that the FSB and Rosgvardia are severely weakened in the Russian federation and that they cannot maintain order \u2013 they have mobile units flown in.<\/p>\n

Then RU pulled their troops from Sumy a few weeks before UA stormed across the border in broad daylight and looked like angels, someone posted a long post in the thread.
\nThere may be reasons to discuss if something is going on with the Russian side because since we knew that they knew Ukraine was planning an offensive it is strange that they pulled away Spetznaz, SOF and some brigade just before the offensive started.<\/p>\n

There are several angles to this and one is that they wanted to save those units but anyway rumors say that the Kadyrovites had made some deal and let Ukraine through.<\/p>\n

Simply put, the Kadyrovites or FSB will not die in Ukraine, that is the army\u2019s task and they have blocking units to motivate them to solve their task. At Kursk it became immediately so that the Kadyrovites fled and then the army chose to surrender.<\/p>\n

If that spreads it could get lively.<\/p>\n

The third leg, the army, is today severely weakened and the attempts at uprisings we have had have been crushed hard \u2013 there is no shortage of arrested generals and units in \u201cquarantine\u201d (pit, torture, violence and death).<\/p>\n

So how is the situation in Russia?
\nWe learned already in 2022 that the war then was a fly on the wall but it is no longer \u2013 it is a big problem for Putin.<\/p>\n

Any dictator would have already declared a landslide victory, withdrawn all troops from Ukraine, and held parades and medal ceremonies, but not Putin.<\/p>\n

He seems to me to be all-in on this war, and the opportunity to declare a landslide victory probably disappeared with Kursk, I guess. He appears to have taken the same path as Adolf \u2013 straight into the wall.<\/p>\n

Someone said early in the thread that the Russians only have one gear \u2013 if the amount of violence doesn\u2019t work, they increase the level of violence.
\nAnd that\u2019s what we\u2019re seeing now, RU keeps escalating.
\nUkraine meets it head-on, and it\u2019s crystal clear to me that RU will only stop when it hurts too much.<\/p>\n

The USA and the West are not helping here because they are pulling in the opposite direction and trying to avoid escalation by letting Russia escalate but not allowing Ukraine to respond \u2013 sounds fair.<\/p>\n

But if Ukraine can hold on now at the level we see today \u2013 strategic bombing campaign, attempts to create unrest in the republics, and its own offensive with humiliating losses \u2013 we will reach the point where Russia crashes.<\/p>\n

Because that\u2019s what they have always done historically.<\/p>\n

I personally believe it is inevitable.<\/p>\n

Then they will turn inward for a couple of years and decide who becomes the new clan leader, and after that, they will return.<\/p>\n

And then we will see which direction they go, but it\u2019s not unreasonable that they want to regain free movement in the West instead of imperial ambitions, and it\u2019s hard to see the West not accommodating them, unfortunately.<\/p>\n

The crash will come suddenly \u2013 Swan Lake on TV, early rumors of a small doll-like figure hanging and dangling at a gas station soaked in gasoline, large troop movements in Moscow (Rosgvardia and all the letter agencies), and above all lots of private flights to Dubai on flight radar.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not unlikely that this will happen, but when is hard to predict because there are too many factors that can change.<\/p>\n

For example, it seems the USA has stopped certain deliveries right now, which prolongs everything, but then Ukraine will come with Dracarys drones, breakthroughs of defense lines, and mobile combat that will make recapturing defense systems much easier and counter with shortening the war that would have become a WW1 trench war according to those who knew their stuff in the thread.<\/p>\n

We have at least seen more open threats against Putin on social media in the past month \u2013 they have regularly flown by and often from PMC.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1829498420480122998?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:54 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d It\u2019s interesting to see the discrepancy between the maps depending on whether they come from the pro-Russians or the pro-Ukrainians. They give completely different situational pictures. Now, the Russians are not known for sticking to the truth, so we know who is more credible even if the pro-Ukrainians might also exaggerate a bit.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think there\u2019s any rush with Tetkino.
\nWest of the city is the Sejm, and the only real roads go straight into the city. Or, there is a bridge over the Sejm, but I don\u2019t really believe in going that way. Easy to monitor.
\nThe community also has some larger industrial buildings, and some are quite tall.
\nI think it would be difficult to go straight in if the Russians have a reasonably good number of soldiers and hardware there.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not really Ukraine\u2019s style to start by leveling the city to the ground. It\u2019s probably better to let it play out further east, and when that is done, go west and then approach the city from the north and east, then it\u2019s only left for them to give up.<\/p>\n

Or they go in now, right in the middle, at Krasnooktyabr\u2019skiy, and then go west, but I think it\u2019s better to wait. There will be time to straighten out the front later.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, it might happen that they carry out one of your thirteen options \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:32 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I find it extremely difficult to assess the situation inside Russia; there isn\u2019t much to go on regarding those in power.<\/p>\n

The oligarchs and siloviki may miss London and other cities, but Dubai probably suffices, as long as there is luxury in abundance, shopping, and of course access to vodka and pink champagne. Turkey and China are places they can go if they want a change of scenery.<\/p>\n

The question is whether their wallets are starting to suffer or if they can still profit reasonably from the Russian population. War can be beneficial for those in the right positions. Putin seems a bit grumpy about those who profit, but maybe that\u2019s just a facade. His closest friends can probably enrich themselves; after all, it\u2019s only the population that foots the bill.<\/p>\n

Sooner or later, they will probably feel life is getting dull and poor, but I\u2019m not sure we are there yet.<\/p>\n

Though some of them might be smart and refuse to wait for the crisis to become a fact\u2026<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see what PerraG has to say!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:36 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, I\u2019ve learned from you!<\/p>\n

The trick is to present enough options, then one of them will come true, and then you can bask in the glory when you\u2019re right!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Is it 300 billion or 500 billion that has been forfeited so far?
\nAnd they have a bit over 1000 billion USD in our banking systems according to PerraG55, so that\u2019s one way to go.<\/p>\n

The chance to become the clan leader should reasonably be the horse we want to bet on?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
15:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

Exactly, but don\u2019t tell anyone in the thread \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

But now I\u2019ve probably exposed myself again by saying that this week the terrain behind Sejm will be recaptured \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Same as the mech offensive 2024 that I promised to stake my reputation on.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

In every yellow wall, you have to write that Sejm will be recaptured within a week, so you keep doing that until it becomes true?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Saint Javelin is probably not an entirely unlikely source but perhaps conveys a rumor that Sullivan does not allow missiles in Russia.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/saintjavelin\/status\/1836050091850764587?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If it later turns out to be true \u2013 my god, what a worthless strategic communication from the USA, and above all, they minimize the damage from the invasion of Kursk instead of reinforcing it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

What the hell \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Yes, reading quickly, lucky that Dengamle has been to Engels and doesn\u2019t read the thread, otherwise we\u2019d be done for.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I have a link that I will probably never post that the EU accounts for 10% of the Russian war chest with its gas purchases.
\nEveryone claims ongoing contracts, but I also want to remember that the EU is supposed to renew or has already renewed the contracts.
\nSo technically they are correct \u2013 they follow entered agreements.
\nBut they also renew the agreements when no one is watching.<\/p>\n

Then Russia sells oil to India, which India processes through the refinery and sells on to the EU.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

So yes, the EU and Sweden co-finance Russia’s murder of children after 2.5 years<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
18:46 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, unfortunately that’s how it is.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:51 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

More like blipped or beeped.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The entire warehouse in Toropets is burning<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/osinttechnical\/status\/1836237970111709485?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:00 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Great!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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