{"id":9496,"date":"2024-09-20T11:28:27","date_gmt":"2024-09-20T09:28:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-09-20-4\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T14:33:30","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:33:30","slug":"2024-09-20-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-09-20-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-09-20"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The maps seem to be quite delayed here, Veseloe is supposed to be completely encircled and UA is moving towards Glushkovo according to Twitter rumors.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1836841824830509121?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Igor, whom one has to take with a grain of salt, goes further and claims that all of Glushkovo is already surrounded.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l4l22rcbv224<\/a><\/p>\n

If Veseloe is encircled, it is not unreasonable that there is pressure towards Glushkovo if you look at the maps and Hasse\u2019s link to the blogger who claimed some time ago that UA had SOF in Glushkovo.<\/p>\n

I have been trying to figure this out for a while now with some probability \u2013 UA has a window to take the area inside Sejm and if they miss it, RU can reinforce with new brigades. Therefore, this should be a priority for UA.
\nRU must bring everything in on a road that is under drone observation and within range of FPV drones or pontoon bridges that UA will shoot away within a day or two \u2013 the logistics are difficult.
\nSo even if we don\u2019t hear much, it should be ongoing, which it seems to be.<\/p>\n

Right now we are getting quite a few snapshots \u2013 which UA units are there, worried milbloggers, map suggestions, videos of prisoners, videos of destroyed BTGs, videos of knocked-out equipment and NO such videos of knocked-out UA units.
\nExisting units in the area have also been fighting for over a week and for the Russians that usually means sky-high losses.<\/p>\n

We know that all three UA units with CV90 and Strv 122 are in the area and we have seen Bradleys. We also know that the Ranger Corps is there, which is part of the strategic offensive reserve and an elite unit.<\/p>\n

Captured soldiers are often conscripts who have just been drafted.
\nTannenberg towards 2024 then, even though RU deployed the 155th, 810th and VDV.<\/p>\n

It is therefore highly likely that UA is well on its way to capturing the area behind Sejm and now that my entire reputation is on the line with MXT about them doing so, maps like these are very important for me to try to convince MXT that I am right.<\/p>\n

The 225th Assault Battalion, which is also inside and wreaking havoc behind Sejm, uses Dracarys drones to clear Russian defensive systems and I believe they are very effective now that it is dry and 25 degrees with brilliant sunshine still in Ukraine and that the terrain still has its forest\/vegetation that catches fire.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1836707116993622020?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Since UA has numerical superiority near Kharkiv, that should mean the situation at Kursk is under control, otherwise more units would have been moved.<\/p>\n

Then we must not forget everything else \u2013 UA has superior targeting systems, they have night combat equipment, they are experts at clearing defensive systems, they are veterans with several years of work experience, they have drone superiority and so on. And above all, they have an enormous cadre of SOF and reconnaissance that swarm like a hornet\u2019s nest deep behind enemy lines all the time.
\nFor example, I believe that the forest southwest of Korenevo is swarming with UA SOF for fire ambushes.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Russian conscripts sit in trenches at night shooting flares until they run out and read on Telegram how they are winning the war.<\/p>\n

UA is now running a beta test with mobile maneuver warfare that works well and the same with breakthroughs of defensive lines \u2013 everything has gone exactly as well as they hoped and they can now deploy this on all fronts going forward.<\/p>\n

On the subject of total wild speculation, it is rumored that Budanov planned the Kursk offensive and we know that Zelensky pushed despite the military\u2019s great skepticism. We know that RU was aware of the offensive as early as June 2024 because then we read milbloggers who warned. Then the week before the offensive, RU pulled out SOF Zenezh, 2nd Spetznas, a Kadyrov brigade and another brigade from the area and left behind some FSB and customs officers who were overrun.
\nThere have also been rumors that the Kadyrovites made a deal with UA from the Russian milbloggers.
\nThere are two possibilities here \u2013 UA is double-dealing with someone\/some people in RU or RU wanted to save these units from being eliminated.
\nBut now the 2nd Spetznaz and SOF Zenesh are attacking instead, so we haven\u2019t seen any real sparing.
\nThe above events are all facts and how they happened and the rest is speculation but if it is true that Budanov managed to find the opposition he previously talked about having contacts with, and that it was a collaboration, it reasonably means that a power shift is approaching. It would also explain why Budanov was involved and why Zelensky pushed despite the military not being keen on it.<\/p>\n

Here is another guessing map in Kursk from September 16
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/vyshnyaostap\/status\/1835793447698989248?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

According to Accentmannnen, there is increased front-line pre-engagement near Kharkiv \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/OZn-Omn3n4A?si=U_etcbEe7_dilrCu<\/a>
\nI have tried to describe what UA\u2019s superiority looks like near Kharkiv and that they have more there than they need for defense so it is very interesting if front-line pre-engagement is increasing.<\/p>\n

Everyone is afraid to take the step because they are worried about the unknown. Is our military enough, what will Putin\u2019s response be, and so on. The easiest thing is always to do nothing and for a career politician that is attractive. Even Zelensky chose not to mobilize before February 22, 2022.
\nTo stick your neck out and make big revolutionary decisions when everything is unknown is not attractive at all for decision-makers.
\nIt is a mindset you can afford in peacetime but we are at war now in 2024.
\nThe sooner our politicians understand this, the better.<\/p>\n

Now Sweden\u2019s UA aid has been substantial and some information is emerging suggesting that secret weapons packages (if there are not even more secret weapons packages) were fun, or maybe they weren\u2019t.
\nWe have also dared to stand up to the USA and been clear towards Putin.
\nMacron dared to cross the Rubicon and he has paid dearly for it because Putin is long-suffering.<\/p>\n

Yes, I also believe that the USA is trying to \u201ckeep Putin on the mat\u201d so they don\u2019t have 400 dead marines to try to explain politically now that Kamala has promised no American soldiers are in war zones, so they have a chance to win against Trump.
\nBut I think it is doomed \u2013 Putin will do EVERYTHING for the orange one to win, terrorist attacks, election interference, influence, influence, influence. And he is already doing it. Here the Democrats have chosen to sit still instead of trying to outrun RU and I think that was the wrong decision.<\/p>\n

This election is now COMPLETELY outside what I thought could happen so my previous thoughts are completely overtaken \u2013 we have thus already had two assassination attempts on one presidential candidate which is probably a dark record even for the USA \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

We all have these moments from time to time when we exclaim “that’s enough now” and then maybe explode without fully thinking through what the consequences will be at work or in the family.
\nFirst of all, one can state that we are in a good boat together with the collective West, so daring to stand up to Putin is not really a big deal.<\/p>\n

We already have several leaders who have tried to project strength but where the collective other leaders have yawned and rolled over \u2013 Macron, Zelensky, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and Slovakia. All of these have burned their bridges with Putin for all time.<\/p>\n

Putin is also carrying out sabotage and subversive activities in all our countries already, so avoiding confrontation with Putin is somewhat suicidal.<\/p>\n

As for Sweden, we as a country need to “cleanse ourselves” a bit, we need to get rid of the worst Russian subversive activities and we need to understand which line we should pursue. Because the line of not upsetting anyone and low-affect response is obsolete since we are at war.<\/p>\n

Yesterday it was brought up that maybe it is not good if Russia collapses.
\nI do not agree with that, but that is my personal opinion, and I will try to nuance it below \u2013 we are where we are today because the West let down its guard and let Soviet\/Russia into the drawing rooms \u2013 Russia got the materiel, the money, and above all the space to become what they are today, a country with imperial ambitions. Putin has been allowed to develop into what he is today, simply put, and the signs have been many.<\/p>\n

So we have already once tried to give Russia everything and extend a hand, and it did not work.<\/p>\n

If Russia were to split into 10 countries where the West establishes close contacts with all the new countries for trade and development, and then the remaining Russia is kept under sanctions and visa refusal, I personally do not think it would be such a serious situation for the West.<\/p>\n

Ukraine would also take responsibility for the six oblasts bordering them and make them prosperous.
\nBelarus would approach the West, 10 million should be manageable, and Kaliningrad would get some kind of autonomy and special status towards the EU.<\/p>\n

Yes, it might not be fair to the remaining citizens in the country Russia, but the alternative is 1917, the Soviet Union, or the situation as it is today.<\/p>\n

How the West acts is central, and the concerns presented yesterday were probably refugee waves, nuclear weapons, and war?
\nHave there been any refugee waves from North Korea or did they come from South Africa?<\/p>\n

“How can one do that to people,” some think immediately, but that is what the West does to North Korea, Iran, and Afghanistan, and the West did to South Africa and Rhodesia, and then there have been boycotts against I..el before, just to mention a few of all the times the West has acted \u2013 or Yugoslavia. There are many examples of when countries are put on ice when they have misbehaved enough.<\/p>\n

“Rhodesia and South Africa were because they were apartheid,” says someone who has studied history right away.<\/p>\n

Yes… and that is exactly what Russia is \u2013 an apartheid state and colonizer that also starts interstate wars when they feel like it and because they can. And on top of that, they are a criminal mafia clan that carries out sabotage and strengthens crime and conflicts throughout the West.<\/p>\n

Russia is thus magnitudes worse for the WEST than South Africa, North Korea, and Iran were and are.<\/p>\n

And that is what is needed for Russia \u2013 they need to be frozen, because if they cannot build weapons they cannot attack other countries, and if the federation breaks up there will be fewer soldiers, and if Russia is surrounded by a one-mile deep minefield they will not cross the border, and if thousands of patriots stand guard no missiles will cross the border, and if NO ONE gets visas we get no crime in the West.
\nAnd so on.<\/p>\n

One should not make the mistake of thinking that Russia is where we are because it is a natural force.<\/p>\n

Russia is a threat because the West allows it and Ukraine has paid the highest price just like Dudayev, Georgia, and some other countries have had to do.
\nAnd just like Africa is now being ravaged by Wagner where they on film stand and chop up live prisoners with axes.<\/p>\n

And above all \u2013 if Russia wants to avoid a collapse they can leave Ukraine anytime, right \u2013 they are free to withdraw beyond the 1991 borders any day.<\/p>\n

So increase the pressure until Russia moves towards collapse and then they get to choose whether they want collapse or not, and then we do not lift the sanctions before they have paid their war reparations, all the guilty have been prosecuted in The Hague, and the country has erased all imperial ambitions.<\/p>\n

There were no reservations about imposing sanctions on Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, North Korea, South Africa, and who else \u2013 why is Russia a special case?<\/p>\n

Now these are my personal opinions and to be honest I think the West will try to normalize relations as soon as the guns fall silent and then smooth over everything \u2013 one has become somewhat seasoned after 2.5 years.<\/p>\n

Everyone who thinks Biden and the USA always do everything right all the time because they have the best intel and are the best.
\nThen do you think the EU resolution was wrong to try to persuade all EU countries to bomb Russia and Moscow with the most violent of missiles?<\/p>\n

I think the opposite \u2013 the USA’s position is becoming completely untenable and they lose prestige and strength every week right now. As a resident in the EU I would actually welcome a stronger EU so I am not completely dissatisfied with the situation that the EU is forced to take some responsibility and come out stronger from this (hopefully).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Here you have Gregg’s Kurs update which I don’t think was posted, works fine to read without FB.
\nhttps:\/\/web.facebook.com\/kenneth.gregg.9440?_rdc=1&_rdr<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:28 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks! Well written, hard not to agree!! \ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, it would of course be positive if we could get a democratic Russia that approached the EU and became a valued member or trade partner but historically it has never worked.<\/p>\n

All the Eastern states also had reasonably democratic foundations to build on and Ukraine today has something that can be shaped into a functioning country.<\/p>\n

Surely you have many provinces that could also be turned into new well-functioning countries but the Russian corrupt core \u2013 is that possible?<\/p>\n

We are not there yet and as I said I think the West will try to normalize relations with Russia as soon as possible so my scenario will remain speculative.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

UA is flooding drones over Russia again \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1837222815457828990?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:31 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

UA has a bridgehead again on the left bank of the Dnieper again \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/mhmck\/status\/1836920164761166228?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The next ammunition depot was blown up last night \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1837347990354202698?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

In Tichoretsk<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Very violent according to sources<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Apparently Neptune against Toropets<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/tatatfender\/status\/1836905431609884985?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

There are apparently 6 large arsenals in the vicinity and UA has vaporized two of them effortlessly.<\/p>\n

There are 24 in total in Russia and that\u2019s all \u2013 one can guess that those nearby hold most of the ammunition.<\/p>\n

Previously, they have taken out oil depots and refineries on a large scale.<\/p>\n

UA is apparently using modified Neptune together with drone swarms.<\/p>\n

Big things are underway.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:47 \u2013 Johan No.1 The maps seem to be quite delayed here, Veseloe is supposed to be completely encircled and 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