{"id":9502,"date":"2024-09-22T10:12:54","date_gmt":"2024-09-22T08:12:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-09-22-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T14:34:47","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:34:47","slug":"2024-09-22-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-09-22-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-09-22"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Mech Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1837728523726782617?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

100 Russian brigade commanders and 500 battalion commanders have fallen in Ukraine.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/killedinukraine\/status\/1837742819949101356?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Don’t forget that since 2022 both UA and RU have attacked during the season with poor ground bearing capacity, but vehicles are then forced to use roads to a greater extent \u2013 especially the logistics.
\nSo it will not come to a complete stop and somewhere in Ukraine there are several brigades with Bandvagn 206s standing around eating sausages.<\/p>\n

This opens opportunities for Ukraine, for example in Pokrovsk where there are few roads in the RU bulge and the two access roads are under a drone umbrella.<\/p>\n

The wet conditions also cause RU combat value to plummet and likely the units are increasingly poorly equipped, and those that have arrived at the fronts since spring do not have winter clothes and rain gear \u2013 I guess.<\/p>\n

Then comes the darkness and UA is indisputably the boss at night with all their night combat equipment which RU increasingly lacks.<\/p>\n

And finally comes the cold, which will also become increasingly difficult for RU to handle.<\/p>\n

The pessimists always claim the same applies to Ukraine but it does not \u2013 the West has donated huge amounts of winter clothes and rain gear and Ukraine’s own production is at a high level.<\/p>\n

Now, warehouses with winter clothes were burned down twice in recent months and if one guesses, it was stuff that was to be delivered to the Russian army that has now burned up.<\/p>\n

It is also clear that the Russians are constantly reactive \u2013 they KNOW that Ukraine can strike deep but the arsenal in Toropets was completely undefended and ammunition was lying everywhere in piles completely unprotected.<\/p>\n

They KNEW that UA would attack at Kursk but did nothing.<\/p>\n

Then it is paired with the fact that they cannot do anything and it is probably here that the knot starts to form in Putin’s stomach.<\/p>\n

They CANNOT defend their highest-value targets because Engels, Toropets, Moscow and whatever else explodes every week now \u2013 they are COMPLETELY UNABLE to do anything about it.<\/p>\n

Ukraine now has an interval of two major operations per week with at least 100 drones alternating with missiles, Neptunes or maybe those new missiles LW writes about?<\/p>\n

I have said since January 2024 that RU has lost the strategic bombing war and it is becoming quite clear.
\nRU’s most protected targets explode in small mushroom clouds and UA shoots down 80%-90% of Russian missiles and Shaheds \u2013 there it is already game over.<\/p>\n

Yes, RU is still running on afterburners in Ukraine but on the northern front it looks really bad right now \u2013 Putin cannot retake anything and they are losing, and will lose, more ground very quickly here.
\nIf you look at Deepstate, UA has just captured a small area in the north in the Kursk bulge \u2013 the area is small but if the Russian offensive went well UA should lose terrain.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/banderafella\/status\/1837423078034313356?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if UA manages to capture Bryansk, Kursk or Belgorod in the coming months actually \u2013 the Russians do not have nearly enough units in the area and UA’s offensive has been going on for 1.5 months so all reinforcements needed could have been transported there.
\n-Putin does not have enough graspable units.<\/p>\n

The Pokrovsk bulge will be ground down during the season when the ground bearing capacity is poor.<\/p>\n

At the Dnieper it is sharply increasing and RU can hardly hold against that dynamic amphibious fight.<\/p>\n

The slippery slope is tilting more and more for Putin.
\nAbandoning parts of the southern front will be a decision Putin must consider quite soon.<\/p>\n

The rumor from FiM that UA has scraped the strategic nuclear forces is interesting because it would be a real nail in Putin’s coffin \u2013 we can take out your strategic nuclear weapons one by one\u2026<\/p>\n

Then came a report that RU tried to launch a Satan 2 which exploded in the silo
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l4qcjuaznw27<\/a><\/p>\n

And then that it was UA who took it out.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/banderafella\/status\/1837411976135213245?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We will probably have to wait until after the war to get the truth on that but that something has happened around the strategic nuclear forces does not seem unreasonable and that is the last thing Putin has left to rattle.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has completely thrown away the script here and no one answers when the USA tries to call \u2013 these ammunition depots and especially the strike on the nuclear installation have been no-senhor, red card, status throughout the war.
\nThey are not dependent on a certain type of drone\/missile that they got now, they have been protected just like the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine has been able to take out the Kerch Bridge for a long time but they do not (did not\u2026) get to.<\/p>\n

Let that sink in \u2013 Ukraine no longer does what the USA tells them to do.<\/p>\n

Australia has also soured, last year they wanted to give Abrams to Ukraine but the USA said no so now they go out in the media to put pressure on the USA.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1837143433317630322<\/a><\/p>\n

The EU has voted for EU countries to ignore the USA, Kier Starmer’s parliament is revolting against the USA, Denmark is going hard, Sweden and Finland are putting their foot down and Australia as well. You have to give Sullivan and Biden that they are immune to peer pressure at least \u2013 they almost only have Putin left on their side here.<\/p>\n

According to yesterday’s post, I don’t think USA’s missiles are needed anymore because UA now has its own capability, whether it was with or without the West’s help we will probably find out after the war first.<\/p>\n

WARNING: don’t let it become some thread truth that it was the USA’s plan all along to help Ukraine build its own missiles instead of sending them \u2013 there is no information indicating that and it is probably planted by the pro-Biden gang maybe \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I suspect we will soon see a USA acting completely differently here when they realize that Ukraine and the rest of the West are running their own race \u2013 exactly how will be fun to see, I wouldn’t be surprised if the anger is directed at the EU for example.<\/p>\n

I..el has also gone rogue a bit now so not much of USA’s policy and doctrines are followed by anyone anymore.<\/p>\n

I am very moved by this war because I see myself in the Ukrainian soldiers. I have had a harder time identifying with Daesh who burn Yazidis in cages, but a Ukrainian engineer and father of three who has fought for over two years without leave is something I can relate to.<\/p>\n

It is also one of the simplest black-and-white conflicts ever \u2013 good versus evil.<\/p>\n

There we also have the reason why I have taken the art form of masking at work for 2.5 years to new heights to follow the war \u2013 and I believe we as a thread are getting good at identifying bullshit by now.<\/p>\n

My image of the West has become quite battered, but it is in line with how the West acted in WW2 and in Yugoslavia, for example.<\/p>\n

However, the USA has taken this a big step further because they prevent all Western countries from helping Ukraine even though they want to, and the citizens in their countries want it.<\/p>\n

The explanatory models are endless in the thread as to why the USA always does exactly right, but I see that they want to sacrifice Ukraine for a bigger cause, and they have no right to do so, neither morally nor according to international law, nor the world order we have adopted post WW2.<\/p>\n

However, I am starting to become more than reasonably surprised at how little is actually done about Russia and its subversive activities in the West but instead try to extinguish the symptoms of it through, in some cases, quite large restrictions on citizens’ individual freedom \u2013 Chatcontrol 2.0 for example and new fresh interpretations of freedom of speech, as well as subjective application of laws.<\/p>\n

Quite a lot of the problems we have would disappear if we eliminated the Russian and Iranian subversive activities, but politicians do not seem to want to miss a good crisis. A bit like the Moderates looking at the increased crime and proposing privatization of prisons instead of addressing the problem.<\/p>\n

Zelensky is apparently in the USA right now, so we will see what comes out of it \u2013 for me, this is the moment when we get to see the USA’s cards.
\nIf they want to take a different role than before, that is really no problem \u2013 they are free to do so.
\nBut then everything else must also be adjusted because they have received endless advantages as thanks for their role as world police and defenders of democracy.<\/p>\n

We have seen history being written here and the history books will include this when the Russian Federation collapsed in the wake of its own aggression war and about a dozen new countries were formed.
\nWith a bit of luck, this became our time’s global conflict that could be stamped out in time because the West’s forges are red-hot \u2013 we will see.<\/p>\n

The order of events is such that first the world must forget and the next despot get loose enough reins to start running wild.
\nThen there will be war and the intensity must be high enough for the West to wake up and when they have done that the war ends and then all kinds of barriers are introduced to prevent it from happening again.<\/p>\n

But the most important barrier is that the West has armed itself and has a much easier time making decisions about interventions \u2013 that seems to be a deterrent for decades to come.<\/p>\n

Rinse and repeat but the EU eastern border will after this war be like Hadrian’s Wall for decades to come so the Russia problem is permanently solved considering our security.
\nThey were a bit slower when they stood in half of Berlin and revved their engines until 1989.
\nAn ENORMOUS security-political gain and we have Ukraine to thank for that.<\/p>\n

Drones against Aktubinsk airfield
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1837735741146718448?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And 90% of the Toropets depot seems to be knocked out
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1837329226665525265?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If I..el’s scare shot against Hezbo…ah hasn’t been enough so far then this should make them terrified \u2013 their rockets\/missiles returns to sender \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/randymot4\/status\/1837634396397900133?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:35 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks!<\/p>\n

Satan 2 committing explosive suicide (or if Ukraine is involved) is probably still one of the more amusing events in this war. They have failed before but that makes it even more festive. Empty barrels make the most noise!<\/p>\n

Even though Ukraine can now strike properly deep (and not just with slow drones), it is still important to get the USA’s approval to be able to strike even more targets. I really hope they eventually give in, but I fear it will take until after the election. The USA appears toothless. Sanctions (also against China) seem to be what they dare do even though they of course deliver a lot to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

It has been Russia that has had the initiative during the winters, this year I hope and believe it will be the opposite. They have been pushing hard now for almost a year and sooner or later the air runs out. Also, the knocked-out ammunition depots will probably be noticed at the front soon (hope there can be many more).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Don’t you have several groupings here?<\/p>\n

On the one hand, RU has entangled the far right, far left, and Islamists but they may not always be fully aware whose errands they are running.<\/p>\n

Then you have groupings that time and again have managed to do Putin’s errands on issues important to him, for example, the Swedish peace movement has a tendency to always criticize our defense forces but never Russia’s many exercises or nuclear-armed everything in the Baltic Sea.<\/p>\n

“Putin’s left” is probably the ideologically Soviet-friendly who by default are still forgiving towards Russia in 2024?<\/p>\n

But then you have a whole group of debaters and people visible in the larger discussion who get paid by Putin indirectly to push his issues. They exist across the whole spectrum and what unites them is that they went from nobodies to being welcomed on the red carpet in Russia and getting more money and status than they dared dream of.
\nFor example, Tim Pool in the USA. The FBI had identified 2800 but the list has not leaked yet.
\nAnd that is probably not all.<\/p>\n

Sarkozy was overbought and Schr\u00f6der as well, so there are examples of heavy politicians, or Nigel Farage and Marine Le Pen not to mention Trump \u2013 and there are probably more.<\/p>\n

And then we have not yet discussed those who do China’s errands…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Not if the big cities are not defended…<\/p>\n

We could already today prosecute with the help of anti-terror laws since Russia is classified as a “state sponsor of terrorism”.<\/p>\n

Collaboration is then illegal and you have more surveillance resources. Also, it is well defined within the law and limited so it does not affect the whole society.<\/p>\n

But instead, they choose to go broadly against the entire population in, for example, Chat Control 2.0 and certain applications of laws \u2013 they do the opposite of what they should do. They use Russia’s subversive activities as an excuse to tighten the screws on all citizens instead \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

“The American action will probably look quite different after the election’s straitjacket is gone.”<\/p>\n

– that is exactly what we do not know.<\/p>\n

But we know that Biden since February 2022 (and today it is September 2024) has delayed, stopped, slowed down, and forced Ukraine into many things that are not good for Ukraine. We can guess that in February 2022 it was not the election that was the problem.
\nOr September 2022 when they forced Ukraine to release VDV from Kherson?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Hysterically funny \u2013 Putin wants to show strength and looks even weaker \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

In 2023 Russia took the initiative in panic to prevent a UA offensive and winter 2024 was after Ukraine’s spring offensive.
\nNow this year Ukraine has only just started warming up so far and is much more enduring.<\/p>\n

The spring offensive died out because the West and the USA stopped sending ammunition and equipment \u2013 now Ukraine has its own production and has received more.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

There is some connection China \u2013 wind power in Sweden for example\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

House prices have crashed in Moscow<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1837904324862632269?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, apparently so but the prices should reasonably have been affected?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Good heavens \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

A month before the election and Zelensky goes absolutely hard against Biden, it completely shatters the whole narrative that D would be a better option than Trump for Ukraine and it\u2019s not entirely unlikely that this is what Zelensky hopes for \u2013 <\/p>\n

That it forces Biden\u2019s hand here to act for Ukraine so as not to lose votes before the election?<\/p>\n

Zelensky has integrity on a level that should make our politicians start thinking about a lifestyle change.<\/p>\n

Absolutely incredibly clever, everyone must be ecstatic here except the Biden apologists in the thread.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:29 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Oh no, have we nurtured a MAGA at our breast! \ud83d\ude31<\/p>\n

You\u2019re trying to twist it so that those who support Biden\/Harris are not pro-Ukraine but really just want to see the Democrats win, but now I\u2019m starting to wonder if it\u2019s you who is actually doing the opposite. I can\u2019t help but suspect that you want to see Trump win and therefore do everything you can to criticize Biden?<\/p>\n

If you draw the conclusion that D is not a better option than T while Z himself among other things says:<\/p>\n

\u201dI can\u2019t blame Biden for anything. At the end of the day, he took a powerful, historic step when he chose to support us at the start of the war, an action that pushed our other partners to do the same. We recognize Biden\u2019s great achievement in this respect. That step of his already constituted a historic victory.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201dMy feeling is that Trump doesn\u2019t really know how to stop the war even if he might think he knows how. With this war, oftentimes, the deeper you look at it the less you understand. I\u2019ve seen many leaders who were convinced they knew how to end it tomorrow, and as they waded deeper into it, they realized it\u2019s not that simple.\u201d<\/p>\n

About Vance.
\n\u201dHis message seems to be that Ukraine must make a sacrifice. This brings us back to the question of the cost and who shoulders it. The idea that the world should end this war at Ukraine\u2019s expense is unacceptable.\u201d<\/p>\n

Etc..<\/p>\n

Z is smart and does everything he can for Ukraine, he tries (hopefully succeeds) to play Biden now in connection with the election.
\nThen of course he can\u2019t openly say anything directly derogatory about Trump, he can actually win.
\nBut if you read the article and interpret it as if Trump were a better option I wonder if you really read the whole thing. It\u2019s long and on mobile you can sometimes think it\u2019s over when there\u2019s more.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
06:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

\u201dhave I nurtured a communist at my breast\u201d was it not \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Now maybe this comes as a surprise but the US election doesn\u2019t interest me very much.
\nHowever, it\u2019s always fun to go against the Biden gang who think winning an election is more important than supporting Ukraine.<\/p>\n

I do care about support for Ukraine and helping Ukraine win though and since Biden is in government and the USA has actively opposed Ukraine since basically the start of the war that criticism is not entirely unfounded.<\/p>\n

I think Zelensky\u2019s peace plan and trip breathe desperation so I\u2019m starting to wonder if the USA and Germany have cooked up that Ukraine shall give up land here \u2013 I have no evidence for that other than Scholz\u2019s earlier statement but we\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n

That Zelensky is playing the US election against D to try to get support is crystal clear I think and THAT can\u2019t possibly be seen as positive by US election strategists?
\nThey must be boiling over this.<\/p>\n

The fact remains that Biden stops the whole West from helping Ukraine win the war and I find it very hard to sell that as a win actually.<\/p>\n

No one would be happier than Zelensky if the sluice gates open after the election and D gives him everything.<\/p>\n

Do you think he is in the USA to influence the election and force Biden\u2019s hand because he has gotten those guarantees from Kamala Harris \u2013 as soon as the election is won he will get everything?<\/p>\n

Why can\u2019t he wait a month then?<\/p>\n

Or go to the USA and say that the Democrats give the most support to Ukraine and that everyone should vote for them?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Have had to defend myself against the worst accusations above \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

Do you see that Erik14 writes that RU is dropping FAB over the city of Zaporizhia.
\nThat means that the Russian air force is in no way denied access to the fronts.<\/p>\n

4000 FAB per month are dropped over Ukraine and is a strong contributing reason why RU is advancing\u2026<\/p>\n

Pretty soon we will see if the West has delivered LV or not because then RU\u2019s missile campaign against the electrical infrastructure will start in earnest.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
07:17 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

Zelensky is fighting for Ukraine\u2019s existence, if he can use the election to pressure Biden to get what he wants he does it (and he is right to do so). <\/p>\n

Z\u2019s statements (and visit) should probably be interpreted more as a last attempt to get Biden to take the opportunity to loosen the restrictions and give more, than that he would rather see Trump win. <\/p>\n

He can pressure Biden now, it is not him but Harris who will be president if D wins.<\/p>\n

His visit can also be pure desperation, winter is approaching and Harris probably won\u2019t be able to make any decisions until January, by then Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure may already be knocked out. <\/p>\n

So it\u2019s not just a matter of one month. He probably also knows that if Trump actually wins it\u2019s about getting as much as possible out of Biden before the election.<\/p>\n

Harris can hardly make any other promises than that she will continue to support, sure when it comes to what is allowed or not she might, but the amount of support still depends on how the distribution looks in the Senate and House since it has to be voted on there.<\/p>\n

You can turn it around, if he now thought Trump was such a nice guy, why doesn\u2019t he go to the USA and ask people to vote for him?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Russian telegrams \ud83d\ude33<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/bricktop_nafo\/status\/1838015833265570292?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:27 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Yes, no subversive ProMAGA posts pass unanswered here! \ud83d\udc40\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:35 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

No, no, everything is going according to plan! Right? \ud83d\ude02<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Zelensky is also the president of the American working class \u270a<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1838059551502762177?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Sneaky stab-in-the-back from those one thought were friends \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
08:44 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Real friends have the courage to speak up when they disagree!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
10:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

I completely agree with you \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now I understand how you read my post MXT and yes, I wrote it in a cloud of whisky but I don\u2019t think it should have been misinterpreted \u2013 were you sniffing wood glue or something because it was pretty late?<\/p>\n

What Zelensky is hoping for is therefore not that Trump will win but that Biden will understand that a lack of support for Ukraine will negatively affect him in the election and therefore be forced to act.<\/p>\n

Considering what we have seen in statements, I think the above position is quite undramatic and really don\u2019t understand what all the backstabbing was needed for?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Mass lootings in Kursk<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1838187722730586427?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Zelensky received the golden plate award in the USA \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1838148366435307583?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Zelensky, the working class hero<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/zelenskyyua\/status\/1838100426631053786?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Pennsylvania\u2019s governor looks super happy to meet Zelensky<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/zelenskyyua\/status\/1838104906105852108?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:05 \u2013 Johan No.1 The Mech Lions https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1837728523726782617?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w 100 Russian brigade commanders and 500 battalion commanders have fallen in Ukraine. 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