{"id":9558,"date":"2024-10-02T10:42:42","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T08:42:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-10-02-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T10:28:58","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:28:58","slug":"2024-10-02-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-10-02-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-10-02"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:47<\/h2>\n

Putin went against the entire West and Putin won, admittedly saved by the gong but he won. If we don’t see EU missiles raining down on Russian targets within weeks, this is over and that will be the legacy.<\/p>\n

Biden, as thanks for not escalating (which is a theory discussed in the thread as a motive), has possibly gotten a port blockade across the entire USA and MENA has just lit up \u2013 this is happening on Biden’s watch so advantage GOP.<\/p>\n

MENA is probably a fixed timeline that kicked off when someone maybe discovered that a pager had explosives (who knows\u2026) and then it just rolled.
\nDid you know that Hez..bollah started using phones temporarily after the pagers exploded and then I..el could triangulate a whole bunch of targets, that was when everyone started getting JDAM bombed after that \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

To be absolutely clear \u2013 the US strategy in Ukraine right now is to go against the EU and all EU countries and stop them from letting UA fire THEIR missiles into Russia.
\nFor once, this has now been communicated openly by the US several times so it is not open to interpretation.
\nAnd countries in the EU, and the EU itself, have protested and said that Ukraine is allowed to do that \u2013 but in some cases changed their minds and come up with excuses like Kier Starmer’s letter to Macron, which he has not yet received a reply to.
\nAnd then nothing happens \u2013 so it is clear that the US stops it here.
\nIf the US had not interfered with what the EU does but not allowed their own missiles to be fired into Russia, we would already have the Storm Shadow rain and everyone would have been happy, right.<\/p>\n

MENA the US has no chance to solve before the election and the port blockade is reasonably politically motivated \u2013 so much for trying to keep Vladimir Putin calm so he would not disrupt the US presidential election which has been presented as a reason for the decisions they have made around Ukraine
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/charliekirk11\/status\/1841129889963069811<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/joshuasteinman\/status\/1840937618575671661?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Anyone with two eyes can see that one rulebook applies to Ukraine and another to I..el when it comes to escalation because Russia and Iran today have a security agreement.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/anno1540\/status\/1841347657991704850?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The rumor is that I..el will go after the oil which would explain why Saudi increased production and it was not to lower the price for Russia \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l5jbs4qzkb2x<\/a>
\nBut Ukraine was NOT allowed to combat the Russian oil export \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Jessica Berlin sees the same thing as us, lots of chatter about UA being sufficiently worn down to negotiate and accept a ceasefire. Diplomats are completely excited that we are now to have peace in our time despite the very stubborn Ukrainians who do all the hard work.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/berlin_bridge\/status\/1841186825328570433?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

But then Mark Rutte contradicts Biden on his first day because Mark Rutte says that every country in NATO can decide for themselves if UA should be allowed to use their missiles against targets in Russia \u2013 Biden does NOT say this \ud83e\uddd0
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/maks23.bsky.social\/post\/3l5hmo5sekw2l<\/a><\/p>\n

Because Biden is considering whether UA might be allowed to do that after the election. And this is the last of many statements that for once have been made completely openly so it is not open to interpretation.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/maks23.bsky.social\/post\/3l5h5f4j4542r<\/a><\/p>\n

Do we sense a first crack in the wall here and will US dated and selfish policies be completely disregarded (the election comes before the children in Ukraine who will continue to be murdered throughout October if Biden considers allowing it after the election) \u2013 we can always hope that Mark Rutte choosing to go against Biden on his first day is interesting whether you like it or not.<\/p>\n

I think everyone here understands that the desire not to escalate so as not to risk the election (which has been raised as a reason in the thread) was a hopeless daydream \u2013 Putin has the ambition to disrupt the election as much as he can to secure a Trump victory and will do so whether Biden sells out Ukraine or not.<\/p>\n

IF there are negotiations \u2013 ceasefire \u2013 discussions and a long delay of the Ukraine war, not only Ukraine but also Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Finland, Sweden and Moldova have been thrown under the bus. As a Swede, one should then drink a funeral beer and throw darts at a Biden photograph if it comes to that.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s hot air about NATO membership is reasonably a deliberate lie because there is a territorial dispute and Hungary and Turkey will not approve Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The editorial staff\u2019s tip is that in a negative outcome (that the EU does not break free) we get the following (positive outcome is that the EU breaks free) \u2013 nothing concrete from the Rammstein meeting and then negotiations are announced after the US election but before Christmas. These negotiations include a ceasefire because Russia has demanded it to even consider participating and they have China behind them.<\/p>\n

And EU membership will not go smoothly either just like with NATO because Hungary and Slovakia will block and Poland is not keen either, Germany will probably betray Ukraine as well.<\/p>\n

But this is the long delay \u2013 what is important for Putin is to get his ceasefire.<\/p>\n

Because it is Germany together with the US that have thrown in the towel right now \u2013 Germany could no longer cope when they don\u2019t have cheap electricity since they shut down their electricity production so companies can no longer sell their products at competitive prices and the economy is declining.<\/p>\n

I have now in several posts tried to explain where I think this is heading but then there is a strong backlash in the thread where it is called defeatism and pessimism. And then we have so many champions for Joe Biden that one hardly dares to criticize him anymore.<\/p>\n

The defense of the defector Scholz is considerably less.<\/p>\n

This was very clear at the meeting in the US and you remember that Dengamle was there and has seen this so you have gotten first-hand information thanks to him \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Yesterday we found out that the one person we do not want to call Putin, Scholz, will call Putin.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1841066712415838345?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We have since read articles in, among others, The Economist about how Ukraine should consider land for peace and The Economist is NOT a Putin magazine. I think FT also has some commissioned piece.<\/p>\n

Jessica Berlin above has voiced her concern.<\/p>\n

And then the party pooper Erik14 posted this,
\nhttps:\/\/mstdn.social\/@noelreports\/113231723797063459<\/a><\/p>\n

To be ABSOLUTELY clear \u2013 if it comes to negotiations and ceasefire the chance to stamp out the great global conflict of our time before it took off is COMPLETELY GONE.
\nIt is so clear that it is our time\u2019s Chamberlain moment that even our politicians and experts must understand it, and if they don\u2019t understand it, it is professional negligence and they should be dismissed.
\nWe can argue about the motives and we have people even in this thread who will try to find explanatory models for the leaders they trust and why they have acted as they have.<\/p>\n

I have been nagging about the risk list throughout the entire war and that the West has failed to take it seriously when they send nothing because they don\u2019t know when Ukraine will collapse.
\nThen I have suggested that I believe they tried to starve out Ukraine in 2023 and force them to the negotiating table but it didn\u2019t work because Ukraine refused.<\/p>\n

If the West has seen negotiations as the next step when Ukraine can no longer hold on, then they have not seen too little materiel as a risk but AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO CONTROL UKRAINE IN THE DIRECTION THEY WANT \u2013 NOT TO WIN THE WAR BY KNOCKOUT.<\/p>\n

Now comes my next question \u2013 how does the West know that Putin will not throw himself over all of Ukraine if the West sends too little \u2013 that should be a huge risk if anything?
\nUkraine runs out of ammunition \u2013 Zelensky falls \u2013 everything becomes chaos \u2013 RU rolls over Ukraine?
\nBack-channel discussions with Putin so that risk was managed?<\/p>\n

Putin is, if not against the ropes, at least very shaken \u2013 on August 5 a soldier died in Kursk who was supposed to be at the border guard in Georgia \u2013 RU has emptied ALL of Russia of troops to be able to fight in Ukraine.
\nTheir materiel is running out \u2013 we have posted this and above all we have T54-55 at the fronts as PROOF of that and old artillery from the 1940s.
\nThe economy is in tatters and there is reason to believe that if Ukraine pushes this then Russia can turn inward\/collapse \u2013 the best thing that could happen in my opinion.<\/p>\n

A dignified end to 300 years of abuse, and above all \u2013 Russia would have been beaten in a fair war and only have themselves to blame without the West losing a single soldier and only having to send old surplus materiel and then getting paid for new materiel.<\/p>\n

But if the USA constantly tries to make sure Ukraine doesn\u2019t get too much and stops Ukraine from making war-winning moves \u2013 then it doesn\u2019t matter, right, everything is relative between them and the weaker Russia becomes the weaker the West makes Ukraine?<\/p>\n

For Putin the whole war has been predictable except for Kursk but now the West has pulled Ukraine back in and now it is predictable for Putin again.
\nWhy else do you think he neglects to defend the border against Bryansk with at least 30 brigades?<\/p>\n

The West seems to have waited for Ukraine to reach the point where they are ready to negotiate and now the defector Scholz calls and says that the West has managed to tire out Ukraine enough\ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Ukraine thought the West would finally recognize Ukraine\u2019s capability if they invaded Kursk but that was seen as dangerous and potentially escalating, and Zelensky was considered annoying and troublesome.
\nThis is not fun to watch at all, we have gotten a glimpse behind the curtains and the abyss opens.<\/p>\n

We have had a lot of this in the world but I NEVER thought we would experience it with Ukraine because they stand between us and a global conflict, never.
\nThe chance to strike Russia, extinguish our time\u2019s global conflict and bring Ukraine into the West I thought would be too attractive.<\/p>\n

Now the risks that the EU has to handle going forward come as a resounding slap \u2013
\n-hybrid war\/war against the Baltics or Finland
\n-continued global escalation despite I..el having fought back surprisingly well.
\n-China is increasing.
\n-subversive activities and sabotage in the West are increasing sharply.
\n-RU and China are advancing in Africa.
\n-political crises in the EU where countries become Putin-friendly or passive.
\n-refugee wave from UA to the EU.
\n-renewed refugee wave from Africa
\n-enormous tensions within the EU.
\n-a UA mafia will sweep over the EU that is unstoppable (have said this many times, wait and see\u2026).
\n-an increasingly disrupted world trade which causes inflation and shortages.
\n-China and Russia, and via Africa, disrupt key materiel the West needs in its industry so everything becomes like Northvolt \u2013 you simply cannot manufacture (BRIICS have the natural resources\u2026)<\/p>\n

And we got all this because we didn\u2019t want to \u2013
\n-give Ukraine the materiel they requested that existed and exists in the warehouses so they could beat Russia and make Russia turn inward, and they were ready to sacrifice their lives for that.<\/p>\n

You can\u2019t have both, either Ukraine wins or the West loses, and a win for Putin is ceasefire and negotiations dragged out indefinitely.<\/p>\n

Learn from Northvolt where China strangled the graphite supply only to Sweden.<\/p>\n

Guess why Budanov is on his way out?<\/p>\n

We are well on our way to a Finland 1944 here if the EU doesn\u2019t break free \ud83d\ude10
\nAnd don\u2019t think Ukraine will enjoy the West\u2019s billions for the SECOND there is a ceasefire then all transactions stop and then it becomes empty promises \u2013 now you will see how Slavic subhumans are really treated.<\/p>\n

Probably it will be like 2008 where they have to sell everything at bargain prices to the USA again.<\/p>\n

This is the biggest mistake of our time and we have followed it from the stands for over 2.5 years so we don\u2019t exactly have poor insight.
\nUkraine died for us and we got tired first \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n

The West has not deceived Ukraine but they have condescendingly let Ukraine wear themselves out until they are ready for negotiations \u2013 I have not seen such ingratitude in my nearly 70 years of life.<\/p>\n

Wait until the white paper and the legacy are to be written \u2013 then it will no longer be true that Joe Biden stopped the EU from letting Ukraine fire their missiles into Russia or delayed F-16s from EU countries. Just like with Biden letting the VDV out at Kherson, it will be questioned and ground down with lots of information indicating the opposite.<\/p>\n

-Scholz will sell himself as a great peacemaker and that Germany has done the most of all.
\n-Macron, who knows, he can take any position anytime \ud83d\ude00
\n-And Kier Starmer is just happy that billionaire-gate died out.<\/p>\n

The lie that the West had nothing to send will become a truth just like that Russia could produce too much \u2013 production figures for 2023 and 2024 will be considered conspiratorial and if you start airing how much the West still has in the barns, for example 4.5 million 155mm DIPCM shells then you are Qanon.
\nWait for it.<\/p>\n

This is not realpolitik, it was going to be like this, it was inevitable and all that \u2013
\nThere have been good times so weak men (and women) have power in our countries and do not dare to make the right decisions.
\nHistory\u2019s judgment will be devastatingly harsh.<\/p>\n

Zelensky is then politically dead in Ukraine and when he disappears it is like losing the sheepdog \u2013 it will pull in all directions.<\/p>\n

Since 2014 Ukraine has wanted one thing only \u2013 to be accepted into the West but we have treated them in the worst possible way and it is an industrial giant and a defense we can only dream of \u2013 they come with a lot +++++ to that deal.<\/p>\n

Ukraine were idealists and thought well of the West \u2013 what a joke I\u2019m doubled over shaking with laughter, how could they be so stupid \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

Now the hope is that the EU will break free from the USA at the Ramstein meeting, but Scholz is not interested, Kier Starmer is fighting for his political survival, and Macron can run in any direction.<\/p>\n

I’ll say it again \u2013 besides the MEK offensive in 2024, the big strokes will be painted during 2024, and that is what we are now seeing \u2013 it hangs in the balance whether we can stamp out our time’s global conflict before it has taken off or if we will have to stand fiddling with an AK4 in freezing rain at some old militia storage in a few years. “This is it,” as Michael Jackson put it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:55<\/h2>\n

This is On Topic but I will put it in a separate post as it will stir emotions in some.<\/p>\n

Chinese influence operations in Sweden<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/jojjeols\/status\/1841002426486112421?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

To be absolutely clear \u2013 the USA’s strategy in Ukraine right now is to go against the EU and all countries in the EU and stop them from letting UA fire THEIR missiles into Russia.<\/p>\n

For once, this has now been communicated completely openly.<\/p>\n

And countries in the EU, and the EU itself, have protested and said that Ukraine is allowed to do that \u2013 but in some cases have changed their minds.<\/p>\n

And then nothing happens, so it is clear that the USA is stopping it here.<\/p>\n

If the USA had not interfered with what the EU does but not allowed their own missiles to be fired into Russia, we would have had the Storm Shadow rain already and everyone would have been happy.<\/p>\n

Theories about the motives are many \u2013 not escalating is the USA’s own explanation and the nuclear threat another.<\/p>\n

Who benefits from the USA not wanting Russia to escalate or from Russia imploding and trying to maintain some kind of balance in the war, which I personally believe has de facto prolonged the war.<\/p>\n

It’s only Putin, China, Germany, and Hungary who support the USA in this \u2013 not exactly the gang you want on your side, right?<\/p>\n

And above all, the USA has one set of rules for Ukraine and a completely different one for I..el \u2013 that became pretty clear yesterday if nothing else \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Now this is D policy and not Trump.<\/p>\n

But we have agreed that right now Putin controls the USA through the election and through Trump so that D cannot send the support they want \u2013 that seems to be some form of consensus in the thread about that?<\/p>\n

It would be fun if we could debunk the information below or if it holds water because it points the finger at China.<\/p>\n

I sprayed my morning coffee all over the kitchen table when I heard Tim Walz’s explanation about China, listen yourself towards the end of the clip. It’s from the debate last night and the whole statement so nothing is manipulated, presumably?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/libsoftiktok\/status\/1841293440480395465?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

So I spent the rest of the morning trying to understand his motive for China and whether the information in the link below is false or not, I have googled the man behind the account and then it is generally accepted that Tim Walz had connections to China during the Cold War?<\/p>\n

The account is pro-GOP so he definitely wants to discredit Tim Walz but he refers to newspaper articles that I perceive as written.<\/p>\n

If you remember the Soviet Union, they tried to recruit those who traveled to East Germany for visits or courses and the same with those who went to the Soviet Union. There is probably a reason why M did not open the Stasi archive this year either.<\/p>\n

China did exactly the same thing here and D must have checked him carefully but to have such a forgiving attitude towards the arch-enemy China was an eye-opener to say the least \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

And when it comes from Tim Walz himself who wants to become vice president, it is not insignificant.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/gragedustin\/status\/1840870964067774952?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:51<\/h3>\n

Yes, he went against Trump in this case and thought Trump had gone too hard on China.<\/p>\n

Yes, we go against Trump because we think he is too friendly towards Putin \u2013 which he is.<\/p>\n

I find Walz’s statements worrying because he has shown a weak spot towards China.
\nIs this D policy?<\/p>\n

What does this ultimately do to their foreign policy towards, for example, Ukraine?<\/p>\n

Because Biden’s position on EU missiles is EXTREMELY hard to explain, I find no rational explanations for that position which really only Putin likes.<\/p>\n

But yes, you can’t exactly accuse Biden of succumbing to peer pressure \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:17<\/h2>\n

Regarding the FAB bombs, shouldn’t RU be able to quickly put together a disposable drone that drops a FAB bomb?<\/p>\n

I think I read that above and that would save the insanely expensive planes they use today.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:52<\/h3>\n

The devil is in the details \u2013 <\/p>\n

A ceasefire to hold negotiations practically means territorial concession but it is not formulated that way.
\nBecause you stay where you are and dig in while negotiations are ongoing.<\/p>\n

Shall we guess that NK and China will soon deliver mines?<\/p>\n

If there are no negotiations and\/or no ceasefire \u2013 which I hope \u2013 then everything is fine.<\/p>\n

We might have to hold on until October 12 but after that, it’s serious business.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:07<\/h3>\n

Then \u2013 Russia had 50,000 nuclear weapons and an ENORMOUS fleet of vehicles\/weapons\/ammunition.<\/p>\n

Now \u2013 Russia has 1,500 tactical nuclear weapons (or whatever it is) and their entire defense force is rusting away in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Aren’t you painting the devil on the wall here with something that doesn’t exist?
\nAre they going to sell those T72s left where the loading cassette has rusted away?<\/p>\n

Feels like a good opportunity simply to smash the Russian bastards \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:09<\/h3>\n

Rikkitikitavi \u2013 do you have to go with FAB9000 \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I was thinking more FAB500 for example where today they drop them with a 50 million USD weapons platform they don’t want to lose.<\/p>\n

If you drop it with a 20,000 USD drone that you don’t care about losing, that would be smarter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:54<\/h2>\n

Putin humiliates Scholz<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1841509173155991821?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:10<\/h3>\n

Article 6 clarifies that a bit?<\/p>\n

\u201don the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.\u201d<\/p>\n

But a small definitional question if the ship is sunk just south of the Tropic of Cancer \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:17<\/h3>\n

Got some sensible explanations at the end so in the spirit of going against Trump \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:40<\/h2>\n

Freed UA prisoner so no longer a prisoner of war<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1841480720499245477?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:10<\/h2>\n

From Rob Lee who belongs to the pessimists but is knowledgeable about RU tactics<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/ralee85\/status\/1841532087502881006?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:15<\/h2>\n

What could this be?
\nI..el defense<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/joetruzman\/status\/1841210230702817546?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:44<\/h2>\n

With what is brewing now in MENA \u2013 are we at risk of an oil crisis?<\/p>\n

In Pearson’s book, it was one of the steps.<\/p>\n

We have probably guessed in the thread that Putin is keen on a serious recession in the West because it would reduce support for Ukraine?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:57<\/h4>\n

Yes, good idea to sink the ships three kilometers south of the Tropic of Cancer because then it doesn’t count, the key is to cut everything before they pass the Suez Canal.<\/p>\n

If you go straight north for a few days, then it does count.<\/p>\n

The Red Sea is excellently chosen because it disrupts our trade enormously.<\/p>\n

But now drones or missiles don’t reach into NATO countries either, nor crashing US Reaper drones or mining the Black Sea, but that probably isn’t included either.<\/p>\n

Interesting in this context that the Baltic Sea is also not included.
\nOr the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:11<\/h2>\n

Straight from the horse’s mouth \u2013<\/p>\n

The West has no interest in stopping components for RU missiles.<\/p>\n

If you think I sound negative \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1841590577453842894?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:47 Putin went against the entire West and Putin won, admittedly saved by the gong but he won. 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