{"id":9564,"date":"2024-10-04T10:04:50","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T08:04:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-10-04-4\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T10:30:47","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:30:47","slug":"2024-10-04-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-10-04-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-10-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Anders S \u2013 so your message that the port strike in the USA was called off was saved by the gong there.<\/p>\n

I have the impression that there is some kind of practice in the USA that months before the election no election-influencing actions are carried out, and a port strike along the entire east coast would have been indisputably advantageous for Trump whether it was Putin’s doing or not.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/inukrofficial\/status\/1841738455501418989?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I see the thread a bit as a microcosm of how the discussion broadly goes in different constellations around the UA war, probably we are more pro-UA than most, except Denmark.<\/p>\n

Check what Denmark sent in September by the way \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jeff21461\/status\/1841501957141225825?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

How does the thread think the US president\u2019s strategy with \u201cescalation management\u201d is going right now?
\nEverything that happens is constantly a consequence of previous actions. October 7 did not arise out of a vacuum on a sunny Monday morning.<\/p>\n

We now know that RU and China were behind October 7, I..el finds Russian weapons with Hezbo\u2026ah and Iran is a veritable traveling merchant of death \u2013 what do our leaders think the consequence will be of not setting boundaries in the long run?<\/p>\n

Do you remember the video from October 7 when they ran towards the border wall and there was a lot of Russian chatter on the video?
\nNow it might possibly be FSB in Lebanon?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/fella_ia_x25\/status\/1842069841835921412?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Wagner in Africa, which has been fought against in Mali, we posted about yesterday.<\/p>\n

We are heading towards a full interstate war in MENA, I remember when we sat and watched the Yom Kippur War in black and white and maybe today wish we had been less interested in partying and Pripps than we should have been in world politics \u2013 we are almost there again and now we follow the downward spiral in real time with a knot in the stomach \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

This will not calm down because it is an escalation ladder that Russia is following and the end-game is not peace on earth at all \u2013 such a strategy cannot be met with low-affect response, period.<\/p>\n

And the longer you wait, the stronger the counterreaction must be.<\/p>\n

Do you know what Biden has done \u2013 he has loosened Iran\u2019s stranglehold a bit here and there in recent years.
\nhttps:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/fact-check-is-joe-biden-weakening-iran-sanctions\/a-68992276<\/a><\/p>\n

I..el, on the other hand, has managed to free two of Nasrallah\u2019s successors in a week, this is almost black magic now \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/drelidavid\/status\/1841962305879175507?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/drelidavid\/status\/1841962305879175507?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

No one needs to come dragging with a video of a small dinghy with a big engine in the case of Cordelia Moon because it basically looks like below in the Red Sea, but yes, this is what that one looked like.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/warfareanalysis\/status\/1841885488652701798?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Houthi man coastal missile batteries or drone platforms sent from Russia or Iran. Iranian surface combat ships send target data to these batteries which fire on all ships they reach in the Red Sea, civilian as well as military and from the entire West.
\nNow you saw a huge blast on a larger civilian British ship.
\nPreviously, Houthi has SUNK ships in the Red Sea and I also believe a hit on a surface combat ship because there have been sudden movements on one or a few occasions.<\/p>\n

How has the West responded to Iran and Russia attacking 103 ships, civilian as well as military, in the Red Sea through Houthi?
\nDo you even read in the newspapers that 103 ships have been attacked by Houthi in the Red Sea?
\nWhat does the Red Sea mean for world trade?<\/p>\n

Directly from the horse\u2019s mouth day 2 \u2013 Zelensky believes the West is dithering and not deciding on, among other things, long-range weapons and permits.<\/p>\n

I find it hard to see how there can be criticism in the thread if you say the same thing as Zelensky. I myself think that everyone who gets upset about that is not on Ukraine\u2019s side but that is my personal opinion.
\nAnd then \u2013 \u201cwe don\u2019t have the whole picture, something has been promised in the meetings\u201d and that \u201cJoe Biden is doing right, he has all the intel\u201d.
\nOr, \u201cI have insight into the USA and it\u2019s not like that at all\u201d, or \u201cI have been in politics and it doesn\u2019t work like that at all\u201d<\/p>\n

No, all these explanatory models were wrong \ud83d\ude00 \u2013 read what Zelensky says instead, so that\u2019s how it was and we have tried to highlight it since the meeting in the USA because it was crystal clear.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1841837853359140980?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The USA is still holding back, it is not for Ukraine\u2019s best \u2013 so why should we then think Joe Biden is a good guy who deserves a pat on the back when he in fact prolongs the war so more children die.
\nWhat we should discuss, however, is the motivation which we may have figured out already without knowing it but there is a bit of circular reasoning right now that is driving me crazy.<\/p>\n

By the way, Matthew Miller lied or they just forgot to inform Zelensky of their decision \u2013 what do you think?
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/maks23.bsky.social\/post\/3l5lsr6on232h<\/a><\/p>\n

This is thus the direct consequence of no urgency from the West \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l5oegj4kxi2f<\/a><\/p>\n

Or this, a huge blast in Kursk \u2013 others I see now so probably RU has gotten something heavier going that they are starting to use. Good luck surviving there.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1841604885571371153?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

It seems that this will now be addressed at the Rammstein meeting on October 12 and we then DEEPLY hope it will be resolved \u2013 if not, it IS a critical situation.
\nThe only thing we need to keep an eye on is when Storm Shadow streaks into targets inside Russia \u2013 then it\u2019s unlocked, not in a tsunami of statements.<\/p>\n

It is extremely rare to get such detailed information about these things, mostly it is \u201canonymous source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said\u201d so we should be grateful that we know how the USA acts on the matter.<\/p>\n

Yes, we let Europe get off a bit cheaply because right now Starmer, Macron and Meloni are dragging the decision out even though the EU has voted for missiles into Russia and many smaller countries support the decision.<\/p>\n

Then there is the materiel \u2013 Ukraine themselves have been clear that most of their offensive reserve is without materiel.
\nI have made a huge mistake in this war \u2013 I have consistently thought well of the West and that positive things are happening in secret. Unfortunately, I never learn and naturally thought Zelensky was bluffing about the offensive reserve \u2013 a clever trick \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n

Northern Luhansk has been painted a bit as a possibility by someone in the thread and UA managed to move towards Novoiehorivka so apparently low priority by RU now.
\nWhat lies east of that \ud83d\ude01<\/p>\n

8 RU brigades in the Sejm area\u2026<\/p>\n

I just remembered that several retired USA F-16 pilots have come forward and said they are ready to fly combat missions in Ukraine.
\nSo there is no shortage of pilots.
\nUkraine started asking the West for permission to combat FAB bombers about a year ago, maybe a bit less.<\/p>\n

Then we sat in the thread watching all the targets between the refineries and Ukraine, and afterwards Zelensky saw our world-leading digging and made his own list of targets which was a copy of the thread\u2019s and called it his own \u2013 plagiarism is a crime.<\/p>\n

Even though the list is quite new, the request that has been dragged out for an unusually long time is not new at all.<\/p>\n

Denmark has stated that they would have gladly sent F-16s already in 2022, so there is no shortage of planes either.
\nSince this is critical for Ukraine, you can be sure that as soon as this is unlocked by the USA, the missile rain will come.
\nProvided it\u2019s not a trick and they don\u2019t send the missiles, but that would be a bit too diabolical even for the West.<\/p>\n

My analysis is roughly like this as is well known even if some want to focus on the negative coming from the West and shoot the messenger \u2013
\n-Ukraine can win this war by knockout if they are not held back.<\/p>\n

Yesterday oil depots exploded again, Perm and Voronezh
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l5ogjzohvd2z<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l5ogkz2rot2b<\/a><\/p>\n

And the Russian economy is in decline.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1841888761962987857?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Personnel shortage in the Russian armaments industry
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1841749048186855477?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine can build more than 20 155mm artillery pieces per month \u2013 take that!!
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1841901632314835454?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

CB90 units are deployed
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1841800896952349091?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Mark Rutte took the first available train to Ukraine
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1841793851314294881?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Remember 2023 when we fantasized about drone swarms, now they are here.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1841581293663928583?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Poland is trying to oppose the USA as best they can
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrreview\/status\/1841502071377240242?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The only one who needs negotiation and ceasefire is Putin.
\nUkraine has been given an ultimatum \u2013 choose war and you will see what we in the West do or choose negotiation and peace and you get NATO membership and EU membership.
\nThis is completely the wrong strategy and the Chamberlain of our time \u2013 Ukraine needs a knockout victory and whatever happens to Russia happens.
\nIf we are a bit risk-averse, we use EU membership to motivate Ukraine not to go for a full revolution in Russia even though I personally think a smaller Russia is a better Russia but one should not play God.
\nInternational law should of course also be followed in the case of Russia.
\nOn October 12 we get a first indication and after November 7 and until Christmas we will know how this goes.
\nMy hope is that negotiations and ceasefire go in the trash as soon as possible and the handlebar Mark Rutte does not seem to have been a completely wrong recruitment for the role even if Biden and Scholz thought it was smart with him instead of Kaja Kallas \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

As said, the big brushstrokes are painted in 2024 as we usually write.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

What happened to the Friday drinking sessions in the thread?
\nIf it\u2019s fashionable to drink less, you forgot to tell me, I\u2019m just absent because I never find the computer or the keyboard locks up and then you pass out over the office chair and wake up at 2 like a desert with a sore lower back.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I have long thought that society discriminates heavily against heavily intoxicated people. Everything else is on the table and you should even identify as a cat.<\/p>\n

Why do I get piercing looks from the boss when I come in dead drunk to the breakfast meeting when it is not explicitly stated in the code of conduct that employees are not allowed to come in dead drunk to breakfast meetings?<\/p>\n

The only way to campaign for this injustice is to challenge the system and make the world truly equal for everyone \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Hot situation in northern Luhansk \u2013<\/p>\n

At Kryulakhivka there is some kind of industry that is now becoming contested according to Deepstate.
\nIf RU gains a foothold there it\u2019s game over in that area and northern Luhansk is cut into two parts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The FSB video was apparently from 2016 \u2013 a common mistake when a source is classified as okay is that you bite when they post psyops.<\/p>\n

But it doesn\u2019t change anything in essence, just that RU has worked with them much longer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Russians are training anti-drone defense<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1841872305187602442?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

RU is paying Moldovans to vote no to the EU.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1841843143412441364?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, he was born a few years before me. The Cold War was not fun and he struggled with a \u201cStasi\u201d label for a while?<\/p>\n

Haven\u2019t read the book but liked the review and especially this \u201cis known for his refusal to swim with the current\u201d.
\nIt goes straight to the top of the list because it looks exciting, if anyone really knew the situation it should have been him I think?<\/p>\n

Besides, he comes from the \u201cleft\u201d (sorry) so can\u2019t be dismissed so easily.
\nAvailable for 79 SEK on Bokus, my wife is getting it for Christmas, so that dilemma is solved \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Just because you don\u2019t read about Chat control in the media doesn\u2019t mean the vote on the matter isn\u2019t moving forward<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/emanuelkarlsten\/status\/1842115935592653017?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Lukashenko promises to help UA rebuild the country after the war<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1842185947871588382?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

M\/45 in Ukraine<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/trip_to_valkiri\/status\/1841902359628415013?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Best of the day \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/kremlintrolls\/status\/1842201281038889407?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Someone needs to have a talk with Alex Voronov, he\u2019s bringing down the mood \ud83d\ude33<\/p>\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/alexvoronov.bsky.social\/post\/3l5oedy5pfm25<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Forbes doesn\u2019t give up \ud83d\ude2c<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1842216973117120568?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

BREAKING the rumor we discussed was true that the North Koreans arrived \ud83d\ude01<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/glasnostgone\/status\/1842217619518029991?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Look what Mark Rutte is holding up, is this legit?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1841890405408747788?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

For the occasion today, I have identified myself as a beer.<\/p>\n

The guy who added -S- in fast food is supposedly the marketer of the millennium and everything else has been normalized \u2013 I don\u2019t know when people stopped shaming what they eat and how they look but it should be the same with alcohol if there is to be equal treatment.<\/p>\n

You have to be accepted as you are even in an intoxicated state, simply \u2013 everything else is unreasonable.<\/p>\n

If intoxication could also be included in HMF, that would be perfect so you can threaten with prosecution.<\/p>\n

You just have to dare
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/interneth0f\/status\/1841961460760461712?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And now you know who wins in a fight between a hippopotamus and a rhinoceros
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/amazlngnature\/status\/1841875146849595640?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

For the occasion, I have identified myself as a beer.<\/p>\n

The one who added the -S- in fast food is supposedly the marketer of the millennium, and everything else has been normalized \u2013 I don\u2019t know when people stopped shaming others for what they eat and how they look, but it should be the same with alcohol if there is to be equal treatment.<\/p>\n

You have to be accepted as you are even in an intoxicated state, simply \u2013 everything else is unreasonable.<\/p>\n

If intoxication could also be included in HMF, that would be perfect so you can threaten with prosecution.<\/p>\n

You just have to dare
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/interneth0f\/status\/1841961460760461712?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And now you know who wins in a fight between a hippopotamus and a rhinoceros
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/amazlngnature\/status\/1841875146849595640?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:35 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Monkey, dog, and now beer, you have many personalities! \ud83d\ude04<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

The dog was\/is there and I don\u2019t know if I\u2019ve identified as a monkey but sure, today I am a beer \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If you want a stealth bomber homie mustache, just follow the video.
\nMine didn\u2019t turn out very well \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/ofathenry\/status\/1842016214329262494?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sad news even if you identify as a beer \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

I expressed concern about a week ago but this is budweiser-bad
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1842276453229957303?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:59 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I personally go one step further and shape not only my facial hair but my whole body after my favorite aircraft!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:00 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

By the way, it\u2019s the SAAB 29 if anyone is wondering.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
07:02 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Maybe it\u2019s just as well you don\u2019t remember the incidents with the monkey\u2026
\nOr rather the monkeys.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:14 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Maybe someone who knows their airplanes will show up and think that was funny.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

That Ukraine can build more than 20 wheeled howitzers per month is completely crazy.
\nIn Sweden, it\u2019s probably single-digit Archers per year?<\/p>\n

North Korea probably has obscene stockpiles just like Russia?
\nBut then the country has been militarized and in a war economy forever because of the fictional conflict with South Korea, so it probably has a substantial arms industry as well.<\/p>\n

In between, they set up five hundred rocket artillery and fire a salvo straight out into the sea, play nice music to it, and broadcast it on TV.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Yes, give Ukraine even more anti-aircraft weapons and a lot of money and they will surely solve it best themselves!<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t really have a clear picture of North Korea. Even if the population is enslaved, the elite probably want to live well; the question is whether they have really invested heavily in all defense or if it has mostly been in things they want to showcase for propaganda purposes.
\nBy now, they should realize that no one has any interest in invading them.
\nIf, however, they have a long-term plan to, for example, take South Korea, they might already be investing everything in the weapons industry.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:32 \u2013 Johan No.1 Anders S \u2013 so your message that the port strike in the USA was called off […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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