{"id":9568,"date":"2024-10-05T11:09:43","date_gmt":"2024-10-05T09:09:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-10-05-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T10:32:29","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:32:29","slug":"2024-10-05-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-10-05-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-10-05"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1841508353048019174?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The reason we are not already in World War III
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/kasparov63\/status\/1841208457933811906?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We are probably approaching RU winter-rocket-rain here, it shouldn\u2019t be too long before we get the first flash that 100 rockets have rained over Ukraine.
\nAccording to Zelensky\u2019s evening speech, they seem to need everything right now.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1842303292753285479?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Hand on heart \u2013 can anyone think this isn\u2019t the best proposal this year?
\nIn simpler Swedish, it\u2019s \u201cgive us the equipment you have in stock, stop holding back, we are winning the war for you.\u201d
\n\u201cPresident Zelenskyi emphasized that the \u201cVictory Plan\u201d focuses on strengthening Ukraine to ultimately end the war, rather than detailing how it will conclude tomorrow. He stated that the plan includes heavy, critical weaponry aimed at targeting Russian infrastructure, aiming to pressure Russia into a diplomatic resolution. Zelenskyi once again underlined the importance of Ukraine maintaining a strong position\u201d<\/p>\n

There is a very important correlation here between delivered LV and Russian rocket rain \u2013 if the West misses this, the future cost will be sky-high over the delivery cost (if one plans to pay for UA reconstruction). And then it is probably the last war winter, so not much to discuss.<\/p>\n

I now think it is clear that Ukraine is waiting both for permits (red cards removed) and deliveries of equipment if you listen to what Zelensky says.
\nOctober 12 should be discussed again.<\/p>\n

Now it\u2019s not the USA we dislike but that they have taken the right to stop the entire EU (against their will) from meeting Ukraine in permits and equipment so that it is not delivered to Ukraine in time, in sufficient quantity, and cannot be used in the most effective way whatever the motive for that may be \u2013 \u201cnon-escalation\u201d or nuclear fear \u2013 so we hope the pressure becomes too great for the USA on October 12.<\/p>\n

Poland has already sounded the gong and said that we are the generation that will once again have to defend ourselves with weapons. I remain cautiously optimistic that it will be you and not me since I am abroad, so it will be you who have to sit in some dugout in zero-degree rain and watch an incoming TOS-1 rocket with your eyes. Don\u2019t WhatsApp your last words to me because it will surely be a sangria party on the beach that day and I will be in a good mood.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/hallonsa\/status\/1842249182658113859?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

There is also a RUMOR we discussed yesterday, that Budanov, Sirsky, and the defense minister are about to be fired. Surtrutn considered it a bit more substantial than a rumor and posted some information yesterday which I paste below so no one misses it.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1842216973117120568?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This is what Surtrutn wrote yesterday
\n\u201cOther Ukrainian media are writing about it, so why must Ukrainian Forbes alone suffer your wrath?
\nThe American political scientist and journalist Jason Smart reported that during Zelensky\u2019s visit to the USA, Ukraine\u2019s president received a signal from his partners that attempts to dismiss Budanov \u201cwill have negative consequences for cooperation between intelligence agencies in the USA and Ukraine.\u201d The message appeared against the background of active rumors that OP is considering the possibility of firing the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Minister of Communications Kyryl Budanov and Defense Minister Rustem Umyerov.
\nTranslated from\u201d
\nhttps:\/\/lb.ua\/blog\/yurii_goncharenko\/637276_shcho_peredali_zelenskomu_pro.html<\/a><\/p>\n

We have written many times that Ukraine is under ENORMOUS external and internal pressure and that anything can happen. They are pulling together with difficulty and Kursk was a solid morale boost. It is very easy for the West to collapse everything by clearly showing that they do not fully support Zelensky or Ukraine.
\nThere are enormous contradictions in the country and those who must be kept in good spirits \u2013 the shooters in the trenches \u2013 need to know that everyone stands behind them so it is worth risking their lives.<\/p>\n

There is even a potential presidential candidate who has as a platform to make peace with Russia.<\/p>\n

Russia is not under the same pressure in the same way even though Ukraine is increasing the pressure \u2013 so far the West has managed to maintain a predictability for Putin that he can handle.
\nRU has also managed to recruit from all over the world so the war has not become too tangible for the average Russian.
\nIf Budanov, Sirsky, and the defense minister get fired, we have real problems \u2013 everyone probably understands that.<\/p>\n

And then you have what really worries, a week ago we expressed concern for Kursk and now RU may have blocked the UA counteroffensive behind the Sejm.
\nEasy to understand when we have seen videos of the new air bombs used with devastating effect.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l5qrz3frbx2h<\/a><\/p>\n

The aftermath for Kursk will be just like for Vuhledar \u201cthey died in a cloud of FAB\u201d.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1842455017120284976?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine has no time \u2013 Kursk can collapse anytime now that they have the Russian bastards at their back, it is a limited area and it is FAB alley every day \u2013 then one of Ukraine\u2019s best bargaining chips goes away.<\/p>\n

The plan was always a multi-stage rocket \u2013 Ukraine did the impossible again in step one but then the West has just sat and watched without doing what they should for two whole months. Two months is 8000 FAB \ud83d\ude10
\nNow all ammunition depots should be shot away, not just a few.<\/p>\n

Yes, everyone will sit afterwards and say they did everything but it is the result that counts, right, and if anyone tries to fool me that the West could not have won against Russia when we have Ukraine on our side \u2013 no \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

Russia is thus so weak that 50% of their artillery ammunition comes from North Korea \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1842460235891396782?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We have sniffed that the West doesn\u2019t think they need any risk list because the worst that can happen is that Ukraine agrees to negotiations so there will be peace in our time, and somewhat conspiratorially insinuated that maybe that is what the West is pushing Ukraine towards?
\n(my personal interpretation is that Ukraine has received an ultimatum \u2013 choose war and you will see, choose peace and it will be NATO and EU).<\/p>\n

Sad to have to crash the party but the worst that can happen is that the West thinks they are pushing Ukraine to negotiations and Putin promises to negotiate. But then Putin does as he always has \u2013 manages to murder Zelensky and get a breakthrough and collapse the front. In the end, the EU stands with a half pro-Russian government and some kind of negotiated peace where RU is allowed to station troops in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

There is a high risk that the EU will end up with the whole mess in their lap if necessary steps are not taken now in 2024.
\nIf we follow the side that believes the EU has nothing \u2013 if Putin places those 46 Iskander platforms inside Ukraine or Belarus\u2019s western border and threatens to wipe out the entire West.
\nAnd then goes in and steals a few hundred hectares in Estonia.
\nWhat do you think Article 5\u2019s response will be then?
\nAre France, Germany, and the UK prepared to take that chance?
\nIf we then continue with the fact that there is hardly any national defense (which I do not believe) \u2013
\nWith what will one retake those hectares in Estonia when there are 50,000 Russians dug in behind a 10km wide minefield?<\/p>\n

The USA also does not need to prepare today for its two wars \u2013 one against Russia and one against China. Ukraine has neutralized Russia so the USA can focus solely on China.<\/p>\n

Apparently, the Wagner crushing in Mali yesterday was not a new film \u2013 some psyops are starting to sneak in among the pro-Ukrainians now, and since they have their source evaluations clear, it\u2019s a bit slow.<\/p>\n

I think the signals from the Russians in recent months are that the country is against the ropes now.
\nOn the battlefield, unfortunately, they are holding up decently because the balance is constantly maintained.
\nThere have been some UA prisoners up in Kursk, I saw\u2026
\nWhen UA managed to hit a mother ammunition depot in Luhansk in 2023, the artillery at Bakhmut went silent for a few months, if I recall correctly.
\nRU has probably moved larger ammunition depots outside the UA border where they have been safe.
\nSo a depot like Toropets causing a shortage seriously here and now, several depots have been knocked out.<\/p>\n

If we can just get past the willingness to negotiate and the West instead seriously resources the UA armed forces, it will probably be a smashing victory quite quickly \u2013 which is also what Ukraine wants.<\/p>\n

Since it will apparently continue to drag on through the rest of 2024, it will then be 2025, because we are already in October and you know just like I do that when materiel is sent, it is months before it is deployed.
\nWhy the West did not want the war to end this year, we will probably continue to wonder about, but that is undeniably how it looks to me right now.
\nLetting the Kursk offensive stall is quite interesting but can perhaps be explained by the \u201cnon-escalation doctrine.\u201d
\nThe Russian offensive is slowly running out of steam, which opens up for UA further offensive operations \u2013 but FAB_must_go AND units must be resourced.
\nIt is therefore up to the West to deliver materiel now, and if the West does not do it, it is another lost opportunity \u2013 third time\u2019s the charm in this war.<\/p>\n

The nuclear threat is dangling
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/bbcstever\/status\/1842175828672840081?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

BBC, which an occupied Europe clung to throughout WW2, seems almost to have fallen \u2013
\n40 minutes of Iran propaganda in prime time \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/k0sher_c0ckney\/status\/1842170384067523063?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

As you may notice now, we have reached the point where one man\u2019s terrorist is another man\u2019s freedom fighter. You cannot bet on all horses and must therefore choose a side, no matter how difficult it may be.
\nA pretty good guideline is to follow international law and then, when there is war \u2013 the laws of war.
\nAnother is that we fare better with the USA than we would alongside Russia or China.
\nThat, for example, BBC above uncritically runs 40 minutes of enemy propaganda makes BBC complicit in an influence operation.
\nThere are not two sides to this coin.<\/p>\n

The same applies to Ukraine \u2013 for more than 2.5 years our media in the West have repeatedly published Russian influence operations, and most recently it is FT, Forbes, and The Economist running assassination-contract-like Ukraine-negative articles.
\nIt is unclear to me whether this is foul play by the West ahead of negotiations or comes from Russia.
\nFor both Ukraine and I..el their survival as nations is at stake right now.<\/p>\n

Besides Kursk above and possibly worse developments in that area, northern Luhansk is basically cut into two parts and the northern part will probably be difficult to defend. Also Andriivka (northern Luhansk) fell, so RU has a wide front on that wedge down towards Oskil.<\/p>\n

Vuhledar is not a strategic loss but losing the town after 2.5 years is so infinitely unnecessary.<\/p>\n

In Pokrovsk, RU will probably focus on Kurakhivka and Seledove, and if you look at the maps, the area between Vuhledar \u2013 Kurakhivka is a possible risk area soon.<\/p>\n

UA defense on the southern front is now numerically inferior and mostly home guard, so there is some risk if RU prepares an offensive there.<\/p>\n

A lot probably depends on whether UA\u2019s strategic reserve is equipped now or not \u2013 we will see.<\/p>\n

I am now of the opinion that what we see is materiel and ammunition shortages in Ukraine \u2013 I have no other explanations.
\nUA has to pool what they have to prioritized areas and the rest survive on Molotov cocktails.<\/p>\n

The Russian strategy to press everywhere then becomes effective because they find the low-priority areas and strike there.<\/p>\n

The initiative has now shifted back to RU again \u2013 we will see if UA can regain it.
\nOne question is how the discussion in the West goes regarding Kursk and further incursions along the border, no point even guessing.<\/p>\n

Yesterday Alex Voronov spoiled the mood in the thread by going hard against the West, so I tried to lift the mood by identifying myself as a beer and posting an instructional video for those who wanted stealth-bomber-homie-mustache. Mine was very wrong by the way \u2013 brought down loud laughter from colleagues at breakfast \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/alexvoronov.bsky.social\/post\/3l5oedy5pfm25<\/a><\/p>\n

Unfortunately, Macron chose to bring the mood down today.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1842462745368686877?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And then Rutte nails the coffin by saying what someone in the thread usually says \u2013 Ukraine does NOT have time on its side.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1842189539785265580?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I\u2019ll see what I can come up with tonight when Voronov, Rutte, and Macron do their best to bring down the mood in the thread, real party crashers \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Turkey now has a trade agreement with Ukraine \u2013 out of curiosity, what trade agreements do the EU or USA have with Ukraine or is Turkey the first?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ragipsoylu\/status\/1842211730811760910?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here you have a good example of why the West is so lax when it comes to Ukraine \u2013 Russia is truly world-leading in subversive activities.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maxfrobespierre\/status\/1842151332284604428?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Read below and consider who it is that needs peace \u2013 Putin or Ukraine?
\nWe have already accepted that RU is very short on tanks and have reasoned back and forth a bit about the artillery.
\nAccording to this writer, band howitzers vs regular tube artillery have gone from 1:1 to 1:6, which is absolutely enormous.
\nAnd even regular towed artillery is now 3\/5 gone from the depots.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/honzastropek\/status\/1841883197056942154?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

All Ukraine needs is to be allowed to blow away and fight high-value targets in Russia on a large scale and get its strategic offensive reserve resourced \u2013 then they win. We can certainly hope that October 12 unlocks everything.<\/p>\n

By the way, did you see that Russia had nothing to discuss with Scholz \u2013 he went out big in the media and announced he would call Putin but it seems there will be no call.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1841509173155991821?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Or that Space X has now rescued the astronauts, excuse the link but it\u2019s the only video I found \u2013 all the others were just text. Good for them that they didn\u2019t have to sit until February.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/breitbartnews\/status\/1841170697919287440?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Yesterday we mentioned that six North Koreans have fallen and some Chinese have also been lost.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1841222840801992895?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We have written that it is clear from the unit maps that RU has pulled units away from the Kharkiv area and ISW makes the same assessment.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1841143337081803092?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sitting and looking at SE3 power production which is 7776MW and we import 5418MW
\nThen wind power is 6.2% of total production and solar power negligible at 2.7%<\/p>\n

And nuclear power is at 74% of its capacity, hydropower 61% and reserve power (I guess) at 11% of its capacity so there is a lot to draw from.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also cold nights in the area now, below 10 degrees.<\/p>\n

Is it wrong to write that if we got rid of the freeloaders down in SE4 then SE3 would be self-sufficient in electricity even in winter?<\/p>\n

Does anyone have the coordinates for the transmission cable down to SE4?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

It\u2019s not SE3\u2019s fault that SE4 chose to shut down its electricity production, I think?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:35 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

The West is doing half as much half as fast as they should.<\/p>\n

The key is that Ukraine is not pressured into a peace they don\u2019t want and that they get through the winter.<\/p>\n

P.S. You forgot to bash Biden!?
\nIs it the dog and not you who wrote today?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:37 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

The economics threads called and wondered where you are!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

What do you mean, this is about electricity supply and national security \u2013 if we cut SE4 we\u2019ll manage just fine \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Maybe I wrote USA instead of Biden, beginner\u2019s mistake \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

We\u2019re not there yet but Ukraine hasn\u2019t had its victory plan approved so as it looks today they are pressured into a peace they don\u2019t want but October 12 is a week away.<\/p>\n

They will get through the winter if RU\u2019s missile rain that\u2019s about to start is met with enough air defense.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:58 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

\ud83d\ude04<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

We\u2019ll see how it goes on October 22 and also November 5.<\/p>\n

Yes, we talk a lot about artillery shells, or rather the shortage, but the risk is of course that it might also apply to more qualified air defense.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

What happens October 22 and November 5?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

haha, thought it was November 6<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:51 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

Meant the 12th of course!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:49 \u2013 Johan No.1 The Lions https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1841508353048019174?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w The reason we are not already in World War III https:\/\/x.com\/kasparov63\/status\/1841208457933811906?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w We are 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