{"id":9570,"date":"2024-10-06T09:25:16","date_gmt":"2024-10-06T07:25:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-10-06-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T10:33:35","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:33:35","slug":"2024-10-06-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-10-06-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-10-06"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I still find it difficult to grasp why UA has stalled and is retreating \u2013 if it\u2019s true that they have lost the area behind the Sejm, that\u2019s bad. Vuhledar wasn\u2019t great and the fact that northern Luhansk is about to be split in two is significant.
\nThen there are the RU clearances of the islands in Kherson that have started and rumors about a planned RU offensive on the southern front.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1842608316234535157?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The following sequence I thought would play out here during the autumn because it is, or was, reasonably the plan for the MEK offensive 2024 as it has been described, the order not necessarily correct \u2013
\n-Kursk
\n-the airfields clustered with ATACMS.
\n-targets across all of Russia bombed.
\n-at least two attack vectors into Bryansk via road E101 and then one towards Starodub which pushes forward to the road into Bryansk A240.
\n-amphibious combat at the Dnieper front and down towards Crimea.
\n-retake the Kharkiv area and possibly an attack vector into Belgorod if the opportunity arises. Multiple attack vectors provide flexibility to choose the penetration point where RU is weak at the moment.
\n-the strategic offensive reserve steps onto the stage \u2013 14 top-equipped brigades.<\/p>\n

We can see on FIRMS that the Russian defense at the border below Starodub is massing and being worn down. Ukraine has done what it can against ammunition depots and airbases and then you probably remember the reconnaissance along road E101?<\/p>\n

This should have happened between August 6 \u2013 which by the way was a late start \u2013 and then the ground bearing capacity becomes poor except for the amphibious combat.
\nThen a phase would presumably take over where RU attack wedges with poor access roads could be cut off from supply and then fought. In, for example, Pokrovsk, Ukraine has a drone umbrella over both access roads and there are +25 RU brigades in the area so they need 25×18 trucks per day in supply which is then limited to 2-3 roads.<\/p>\n

Supercooled rain and Russians stuck in a muddy pit combined with zero maintenance is a good combo if you have a 14-brigade strong offensive reserve that is idle.<\/p>\n

We know that the West has stopped Ukraine from attacking targets in Russia with Western missiles and we can guess that they have been told not to continue into Russia to avoid escalation.
\nThe materiel and ammunition needed for the offensive strategic reserve have also not arrived on time. It now seems like it will come only for next year\u2019s offensive.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1842623249038864541?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine has reasonably communicated clearly WHEN they needed this materiel in time to be able to carry out their offensive operations.<\/p>\n

They have also communicated clearly what is at stake here reasonably \u2013 the alternative to the above is what we now see where Ukraine is retreating everywhere instead.<\/p>\n

In the situation Ukraine is now in and that the above points will be discussed only on October 12 means that the above battle plan has run away and if everything is approved it will still be a reversal.<\/p>\n

Does the West think Ukraine is bluffing in their briefings and gamble that everything will go well anyway?<\/p>\n

Anyway, Ukraine is clear about what is expected from the West on October 12
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1842621718596075572?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Yesterday I did a little world-leading social experiment by suggesting that if we cut the power cable to SE4, we in SE3 would manage just fine.
\nNow it didn\u2019t quite become the storm I expected because SE4 also seems to have given up and is ready for rolling power outages and that they are owned by SE3.
\nBut that is exactly what is happening in Ukraine \u2013 the EU refuses to see that we are \u201cone power grid\u201d and that Ukraine\u2019s win or loss will directly bounce back on us.
\nWe believe there is some kind of middle ground here where you can get away with doing nothing.
\nBut that alternative does not exist \u2013 either Russia loses or we get a global war.
\nThose are the two alternatives our decision-makers have to consider on October 12.
\nSo all those who criticized me regarding SE3-SE4 should now air that criticism they reasonably then have against Joe Biden who is doing worse with Ukraine than cutting a transmission cable.
\nHe is actually stopping Denmark, Norway, the continent, and Finland from selling electricity to SE4 as well, because SE4 is to be completely blacked out.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has not retreated this much since Lysychansk really. Northern Luhansk is about to fall back and after that RU has an excellent anchor on its northern flank that will be hard to smoke them out from, and above all they then have the entire Luhansk Oblast which is apparently important for Putin.<\/p>\n

We have not yet seen the consequences of Vuhledar but the 72nd is probably quite worn out and there are no other heavy elephants in the area that can take up the defense as far as I can see.<\/p>\n

Then we have not seen the next RU offensive into Ukraine from Bryansk oblast either \u2013 if RU just gets time it will come (no one stops them, only Ukraine is stopped).<\/p>\n

There have long been rumors of an RU offensive on the southern front and UA now has a thin picket line with home guard down there.
\nThe initiative has slipped back to RU now and UA is reactive \u2013 this is exactly what RU has shown they can master, it\u2019s the unpredictability and mobile combat they have difficulty with. They have evidently found a combo now that works as they advance.<\/p>\n

Within not too many months, Chinese drones will also arrive if no borders are set, and then artillery + tanks. There are already rumors about some new type of drone they hide among Shaheds that they cannot reach.<\/p>\n

Another thing I\u2019ve been thinking about is the Dnipro reservoir and that the river channel is a fraction of what it used to be \u2013 how dried up is it really?
\nLooks like you can cross at several places with pontoon bridges and drive vehicles over.<\/p>\n

Then it has gone a bit under the radar but RU has started retaking islands in the Kherson delta now over by Krunky. It\u2019s quite a small area but reasonably signals that RU has the ambition to retake the delta.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has a bit over 100,000 up towards the border with Belarus according to what Zelensky has said earlier and cannot take chances.<\/p>\n

Putin needs NOTHING along his entire land border because NATO is not a threat \u2013 even border guards from Georgia have gone and died in Kursk now.
\nFor example, large military exercises could have been conducted along all of Russia\u2019s land border to tie down units but probably it has been seen as potentially escalating by the West.<\/p>\n

As the situation looks today, UA\u2019s negotiating position is not good IF there were to be negotiations and the expected development of the situation all else equal is not good at all. But now everything can change on October 12.
\nYes, Ukraine has hit some ammunition depots but the Russian missile rain is around the corner and I think I hear from UA statements that they have not received enough LV and are trying to pressure the West.
\nUkraine\u2019s campaign plan for 2024 seems to be collapsing.
\n2025 is hard to predict \u2013 will Ukraine manage to rise once more, will the West choose weapons and violence over negotiations?
\nHas it become a global war in 2025 and UA then secondary?<\/p>\n

Since the USA is very clear that they want to avoid nuclear war and are prepared to make major concessions \u2013
\n-North Korea threatens with nuclear war and South Korea responds that they have heavy conventional missiles.
\n-Iran threatens I..el with \u201cmissiles with unprecedented destruction\u201d if they strike Iran.
\n-And Israel threatens Iran with nuclear weapons if they retaliate against I..el\u2019s retaliation.
\n-And finally Pakistan threatens with nuclear weapons<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been quite a long time since everyone threatened everyone with nuclear weapons, we almost have to go back to pre-1989 for that?<\/p>\n

What else is happening?
\n-The Red Sea as a transport route is being closed off.
\n-Russia is creating interstate conflicts or civil wars in half of Africa with planned subsequent refugee flows
\n-MENA is on its way to lighting up with an oil crisis as a consequence and soaring oil prices
\n-A possible recession is lurking.
\n-China has raised rhetoric against Taiwan and China is building surface combatants in numbers that every other year equal the Royal Navy.<\/p>\n

In hindsight, the fact that COVID came so close to this, at least I find interesting. The way to cut I..el is according to the book to release a biological weapon that makes I..el sick before the rest of the world so they can be overrun. And then China manages to mess up in a lab and releases COVID. Why anyone even makes diseases into weapons seems no one reflects on.<\/p>\n

Now back to the central point here \u2013 the global escalation is slowly starting to roll out in a vacuum where the West is restrained.
\nThe \u201cAxis of evil\u201d has received its marching orders \u2013 I think that is obvious?<\/p>\n

Russia has special forces embedded with Hez\u2026.bollah so there is no doubt who is fueling that conflict.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/20gimsack\/status\/1842606750115217887?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

People in the West know very well that we are heading towards the great global conflict of our time.
\nSo why not do everything to stamp it out now, a rather difficult thought to wrestle with actually.
\nNATO is to be significantly expanded to meet the future Russian threat.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1842542688760959302?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think Putin is going all-in to get a better position in negotiations, I think he is going all in so that we move to the next step in the global escalation.
\nI think it is entirely justified to highlight who makes what decisions, or non-decisions, because it will have major consequences for us as a collective..
\nIf we extrapolate on that, RU will continue but now that it has gone badly it is important to do as China did with COVID \u2013 when they realized they had been hit by COVID they made sure to keep flight routes open until it spread so everyone was affected equally.
\nNow Russia must drag the West into this and then the war will grind on until he has achieved his goal which, by the way, is to conquer all of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

If you get infinite chances you eventually succeed despite all setbacks \u2013 don\u2019t know how many times I have declared that Russia has lost or that the global escalation has stopped but if the West does nothing or tries to maintain a balance in Ukraine it will lead to worse development. The biggest mistake on my part has been to believe that the West was one step ahead.<\/p>\n

Finland manages 80% of its food supply by the way, nice with such a high degree of self-sufficiency.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/anderssonhome\/status\/1842270745612763196?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nSweden has around 50% so the rest we depend on imports for which presumably go through the Red Sea among other routes?<\/p>\n

Jill Stein seems to be bought by RU?
\nI have read about that before I think?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/reshetz\/status\/1842486416011313635?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Has I..el already struck targets in Iran?
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l5thczijid2p<\/a><\/p>\n

Wilhelm scream effect
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/historyinmemes\/status\/1842814294393545083?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

RU has emptied a large ammunition depot in Siberia \u2013 going well now for Putin.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/janr210\/status\/1842564750284374033?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Do you remember the discussion in 2022-2023 about it being marketing for weapon systems to be used in Ukraine and some argued that it wasn\u2019t true. Even RB70 is now getting orders.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/lkasciunas\/status\/1842479244254884313?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Today\u2019s Russian influence operation \u2013
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/billbrowder\/status\/1842824890354671873?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

RU has lost the strategic bombing war.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1842612166987313388?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Stoltenberg regrets that Ukraine did not get more weapons earlier
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/kasparov63\/status\/1842422275804393879?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And the head of the FSB threatens Moldova and the Baltics if anyone didn\u2019t believe that we are on an escalation ladder \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l5tj3gnb562t<\/a><\/p>\n

So now the MEK offensive 2024 is probably behind us I guess and then we will see what October 12 and November 5 bring. Likely Trump\u2019s secondary task is to lock down the USA if he loses so immediate support we can probably forget.
\nUkraine is clear about what they want \u2013 Zelensky specified in yesterday\u2019s speech that they were not interested in ceding land so he probably felt it needed to be clarified?
\nWhen we looked at the 2024 offensive we saw early in the year how France started sending heavy vehicles by train to Ukraine and the Netherlands and Denmark promised F-16s in the spring \u2013 everything looked good and ammunition was secured.
\nThen the F-16s didn\u2019t come and Zelensky let it be known that 14 brigades in the offensive strategic reserve had not received promised equipment.
\nKursk was launched anyway but now we probably see the effects of denying RU air access to the fronts because they are retreating in a cloud of FAB just as they had to do in Vuhledar. There are sadly many videos of UA captures from Kursk right now and we have no RU prisoners in pro-UA flows.<\/p>\n

It will be interesting to see what is on the table in the West\u2019s discussions for the rest of the year actually.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I still have difficulty grasping why UA has stalled and is moving backwards \u2013 if it\u2019s true that they lost the area behind Sejm that is bad. Vuhledar was not very good and that northern Luhansk is about to be cut in two matters.
\nThen there are RU clearances of the islands in Kherson that have begun and rumors of planned RU offensive on the southern front.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1842608316234535157?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The following sequence I thought would play out here during the autumn because it is, or was, presumably the plan for the MEK offensive 2024 as it has been described, order not necessarily correct \u2013
\n-Kursk
\n-airfields clustered with ATACMS.
\n-targets for the war across all of Russia bombed.
\n-at least two attack vectors into Bryansk road E101 and then one towards Starodub that pushes forward to the road into Bryansk A240.
\n-amphibious combat at the Dnieper front and down towards Crimea.
\n-retake the Kharkiv area and possibly an attack vector into Belgorod if opportunity. Several attack vectors give flexibility to choose penetration points where RU is weak at the moment.
\n-strategic offensive reserves step onto the stage \u2013 14 top-equipped brigades.<\/p>\n

We can see from FIRMS that the Russian defense at the border below Starodub is being massed and worn down. Ukraine has done what it can against ammunition depots and air bases, and then you probably remember the reconnaissance along road E101?<\/p>\n

This was supposed to happen between August 6 \u2013 which, by the way, was a late start and then the ground bearing capacity becomes poor except for amphibious combat.
\nThen a phase would presumably take over where RU attack wedges with poor access roads could be choked off in terms of maintenance and then fought. For example, in Pokrovsk, Ukraine has a drone umbrella over both access roads, and there are +25 RU brigades in the area, so they need 25X18 trucks per day in maintenance, which is then limited to 2-3 roads.<\/p>\n

Supercooled rain and Russians stuck in a muddy pit combined with zero maintenance is a good combo if you have a 14-brigade strong offensive reserve that is idle.<\/p>\n

We know that the West has stopped Ukraine from attacking targets in Russia with Western missiles, and we can guess that they have been told not to continue into Russia to avoid escalation.
\nThe equipment and ammunition needed for the offensive strategic reserve have also not arrived on time. It now seems like it will only arrive for next year\u2019s offensive.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1842623249038864541?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine has reasonably communicated clearly WHEN they needed this equipment in time to be able to carry out their offensive operations.<\/p>\n

They have also reasonably communicated clearly what is at stake here \u2013 the alternative to the above is what we are now seeing where Ukraine is retreating everywhere instead.<\/p>\n

In the situation Ukraine is now in and that the above points will be discussed only on October 12, this means that the above battle plan has gotten away and if everything is approved it will still be a setback.<\/p>\n

Does the West believe that Ukraine is bluffing in their presentations and is gambling that everything will go well anyway?<\/p>\n

Anyway, Ukraine is clear about what is expected from the West on October 12
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1842621718596075572?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Yesterday I did a little world-leading social experiment by suggesting that if we cut the power cable to SE4, we in SE3 would manage just fine.
\nNow, it probably didn\u2019t become the storm I had imagined because SE4 also seems to have given up and is ready for rolling power outages and that they are owned by SE3.
\nBut that is exactly what is happening in Ukraine \u2013 the EU refuses to see that we are “one power grid” and that Ukraine\u2019s win or loss will directly bounce back on us.
\nWe think there is some kind of middle way here where you can get away with doing nothing.
\nBut that option does not exist \u2013 either Russia loses or we get a global war.
\nThose are the two options our decision-makers have to consider on October 12.
\nSo all those who criticized me regarding SE3-SE4 should now air the criticism they reasonably then have against Joe Biden, who is doing worse with Ukraine than cutting a transmission cable.
\nHe is actually stopping Denmark, Norway, the continent, and Finland from selling electricity to SE4 as well, because SE4 is to be completely blacked out.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has not retreated this much since Lysychansk, really. Northern Luhansk is about to fall back and after that RU has an excellent anchor on its northern flank that will be hard to smoke out, and above all, they then have the whole Luhansk Oblast, which is apparently important for Putin.<\/p>\n

We have not yet seen the consequences at Vuhledar, but the 72nd is probably quite exhausted and there are no other heavy elephants in the area that can take over the defense as far as I can see.<\/p>\n

Then we have not seen the next RU offensive into Ukraine from Bryansk oblast either \u2013 if RU just gets time, it will come (no one stops them, only Ukraine is stopped).<\/p>\n

There have been rumors for quite some time about an RU offensive on the southern front and UA now has a thin picket line with home guard down there.
\nThe initiative has slipped back to RU now and UA is reactive \u2013 this is exactly what RU has shown it can master, it is the unpredictability and mobile combat they have difficulty with. They have evidently found a combo now that works as they advance.<\/p>\n

Within not too many months, Chinese drones will also arrive if no borders are set, and then artillery + tanks. There are already rumors about some new type of drone they hide among Shaheds that they cannot reach.<\/p>\n

Another thing I have wondered about is the Dnipro reservoir and that the river channel is a fraction compared to before \u2013 how dried up is it really?
\nIt looks like you can cross at several places with a pontoon bridge and drive over with vehicles.<\/p>\n

Then it has gone a bit under the radar but RU has started retaking islands in the Kherson delta now over by Krunky. It is a fairly small area but reasonably signals that RU has the ambition to retake the delta.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has a bit over 100,000 near the border to Belarus according to what Zelensky has said earlier and cannot take chances.<\/p>\n

Putin needs NOTHING along his entire land border because NATO is not a threat \u2013 even the border guards from Georgia have died in Kursk now.
\nFor example, large military exercises could have been conducted along all of Russia\u2019s land border to tie down units but probably it has been seen as potentially escalating from the West.<\/p>\n

As the situation looks today, UA\u2019s negotiating position is not good IF there were to be negotiations and the expected development of the situation all else being equal is not good at all. But now everything can change on October 12.
\nYes, Ukraine has hit some ammunition depots but the Russian rocket rain is around the corner and I think I hear from UA statements that they have not received enough LV and are trying to pressure the West.
\nUkraine\u2019s campaign plan for 2024 seems to be collapsing.
\n2025 is hard to predict \u2013 will Ukraine be able to rise again, will the West choose weapons and violence over negotiations?
\nWill there be a global war in 2025 and UA then be secondary?<\/p>\n

Since the USA is very clear that they want to avoid nuclear war and are prepared for major concessions \u2013
\n-North Korea threatens with nuclear war and South Korea responds that they have fat conventional missiles.
\n-Iran threatens I..el with \u201cmissiles with unprecedented destruction\u201d if they strike Iran.
\n-And I..el threatens Iran with nuclear weapons if they retaliate against I..el\u2019s retaliation.
\n-And finally Pakistan threatens with nuclear weapons<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been quite a while since everyone threatened everyone with nuclear weapons, we almost have to go back to pre-1989 for that?<\/p>\n

What else is happening?
\n-The Red Sea as a transport route is closing.
\n-Russia is creating interstate conflicts or civil wars in half of Africa with planned subsequent refugee flows
\n-MENA is on its way to lighting up with an oil crisis as a consequence and soaring oil prices
\n-A possible recession is lurking.
\n-China has raised rhetoric against Taiwan and China is building surface combat ships in numbers that every other year equal the Royal Navy.<\/p>\n

In hindsight, the fact that COVID came so close to this is at least interesting to me. According to the book, the way to cut I..el off is to release a biological weapon that makes I..el sick before the rest of the world so they can be overrun. And then China manages to mess up in a lab and releases COVID. Why anyone would even make diseases into weapons seems to be something no one reflects on.<\/p>\n

Now back to the central point here \u2013 the global escalation is starting to roll out in a vacuum where the West is restrained.
\nThe “Axis of evil” has received its marching orders \u2013 I think that is obvious?<\/p>\n

Russia has special forces embedded with Hez\u2026.bollah, so there is no doubt about who is fueling that conflict.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/20gimsack\/status\/1842606750115217887?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

People in the West know very well that we are heading towards the great global conflict of our time.
\nSo why isn\u2019t everything being done to stamp it out now? It\u2019s actually a pretty tough thought to wrestle with.
\nNATO is to be significantly expanded to meet the future Russian threat.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1842542688760959302?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think Putin is going all-in to get a better position in negotiations; I think he is going all in so that we move to the next step in the global escalation.
\nI think it is entirely justified to highlight who is making what decisions, or non-decisions, because it will have major consequences for us as a collective..
\nIf we extrapolate on that, Russia will continue, but now that things have gone poorly, it\u2019s about doing what China did with COVID \u2013 when they realized they had been hit by COVID, they made sure to keep flight routes open until it spread so everyone was affected equally.
\nNow Russia must drag the West into this, and then the war will grind on until he achieves his goal, which by the way is to conquer all of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

If you get infinite chances, you eventually succeed despite all setbacks \u2013 I don\u2019t know how many times I have declared that Russia has lost or that the global escalation has stopped, but if the West does nothing or tries to maintain a balance in Ukraine, things will head for a worse outcome. My biggest mistake has been to believe that the West was one step ahead.<\/p>\n

Finland manages 80% of its food supply by the way, nice to have such a high degree of self-sufficiency.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/anderssonhome\/status\/1842270745612763196?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nSweden has around 50%, so the rest depends on imports, which presumably go through the Red Sea among other routes?<\/p>\n

Jill Stein seems to be bought by RU?
\nI think I\u2019ve read about that before?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/reshetz\/status\/1842486416011313635?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Has I..el already attacked targets in Iran?
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l5thczijid2p<\/a><\/p>\n

Wilhelm scream effect
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/historyinmemes\/status\/1842814294393545083?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

RU has emptied a large ammunition depot in Siberia \u2013 things are going well for Putin now.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/janr210\/status\/1842564750284374033?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Do you remember the discussion in 2022-2023 about it being marketing for weapons systems to be used in Ukraine and some thought that wasn\u2019t true? Even RB70 is now getting orders.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/lkasciunas\/status\/1842479244254884313?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Today\u2019s Russian influence operation \u2013
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/billbrowder\/status\/1842824890354671873?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

RU has lost the strategic bombing war.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1842612166987313388?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Stoltenberg regrets that Ukraine did not get more weapons earlier
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/kasparov63\/status\/1842422275804393879?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And the head of the FSB threatens Moldova and the Baltics if anyone didn\u2019t believe we are on an escalation ladder \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l5tj3gnb562t<\/a><\/p>\n

So now the MEK offensive 2024 is probably behind us, I guess, and we will then see what October 12 and November 5 bring. Likely Trump\u2019s secondary task is to lock down the USA if he loses, so immediate support can probably be forgotten.
\nUkraine is clear about what they want \u2013 Zelensky specified in yesterday\u2019s speech that they were not interested in ceding land, so he probably felt that needed to be clarified?
\nWhen we looked at the 2024 offensive, we saw early in the year how France started sending heavy vehicles by train to Ukraine and the Netherlands and Denmark promised F-16s in the spring \u2013 everything looked good and ammunition was secured.
\nThen the F-16s didn\u2019t come, and Zelensky announced that 14 brigades in the offensive strategic reserve had not received promised materiel.
\nKursk was launched anyway, but now we probably see the effects of denying RU air access to the fronts because they are retreating in a cloud of FAB just as they had to do in Vuhledar. There are sadly many videos of UA captures from Kursk right now, and we have no RU prisoners in pro-UA flows.<\/p>\n

It will be interesting to see what is on the table in the West\u2019s discussions for the rest of the year actually.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:27 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks! Maybe a bit too negative but I understand it.<\/p>\n

When it comes to Ukraine, you always highlight the positive, and that is completely right (even if sometimes I think you are a bit too optimistic). The Russians are fighting hard to make it sound like they cannot be defeated and that Ukraine might as well give up. It is important to counter that.<\/p>\n

This also applies to us who follow the blog; if we dig into the negative, it is easy to give up. If everything is painted pitch black, eventually the engagement for Ukraine will cool among many. We surely have quite a few readers among journalists and others, and the same applies to them, they are affected too (newspapers love pitch-black headlines because it attracts readers, even more reason to try to convey the positive).<\/p>\n

Setting Ukraine aside, both you and I and many others have loudly complained that support comes too late and is too little. Especially frustrating is when unjustified restrictions are placed on how weapons are used, etc.
\n(Sometimes I wonder if it is because the USA is afraid of an escalation between Isr*el and Ir*n and that they deny Ukraine long-range weapons because they have a limited amount and want to save them. If Ukraine is not allowed to use them, they don\u2019t have to give them any.)<\/p>\n

That said, I wanted to give my view on this Biden thing (not looking for a discussion, just giving my perspective).
\nRegarding the constant complaints about him, I have been doubtful whether it is constructive. Of course, it depends a lot on whether one believes Trump or the Democrats are the best option for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

I am completely convinced that Trump would be a disaster and that it is Putin’s greatest wish that he should win.<\/p>\n

Contrary to what you think, I want to argue that the constant complaining about Biden (even if it is partly deserved) is rather something that actually benefits Russia. It increases the chance for Trump to win the election and it also contributes to a negative image of Ukraine’s chances of achieving a victory they can accept.<\/p>\n

We can hardly influence Biden to make the right decision, but the complaining can lead to more people seeing Trump as a better candidate than Harris. Admittedly, we may not have many readers here who vote in the US elections, so of course it doesn’t have much significance (then it depends, if one believes Trump is a better candidate, it is of course completely right to complain).<\/p>\n

Besides contributing to a bit of a bad atmosphere, something we don’t need now when things look bleak.
\nWe are somewhat back to how it sounded before Ukraine stepped into Kursk.<\/p>\n

We must not give up and I hope you can find your way back to the more positive!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:03 \u2013 Johan No.1 I still find it difficult to grasp why UA has stalled and is retreating \u2013 if 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