{"id":9576,"date":"2024-10-15T11:18:59","date_gmt":"2024-10-15T09:18:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-10-15-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T10:35:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:35:07","slug":"2024-10-15-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-10-15-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-10-15"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Today I\u2019m trying to post a message that fairly clearly describes the situation as it is today and what decisions must be made without painting a negative picture, so let\u2019s see what the response will be. It\u2019s almost impossible to write anything less negative than this right now, so if it\u2019s not welcome, it will have to be through another channel.<\/p>\n

You all follow, for example, Deepstate and have the unit maps and know the situation at the fronts, and all assumptions are supported by what Zelensky and Ukraine themselves have stated.
\nAnd then of course a jab at those who have said that there will be negotiations, will stop delivering heavy equipment to Ukraine, or prevent others from delivering, but if you defend them, you don\u2019t want what\u2019s best for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The first part of the post before we get to the different fronts is important, especially the conclusion, since Putin has played the West in the stands on several issues here, which I clarify \u2013 this is something I don\u2019t think is discussed at all in the broader debate yet, actually.<\/p>\n

Zelensky has a decision to wrestle with here every day both as a person and as a leader \u2013 when is it no longer justifiable to sacrifice Ukrainian soldiers\u2019 lives. This should be at the top of the risk list for the West, and the correlation between longer time and increased risk is 1.<\/p>\n

I have all along maintained the line that Ukraine must regain the 1991 borders and that Russia must suffer a humiliating defeat for this war to end and to avoid a global conflict. But that has also been the motivation for the Ukrainian fighters to reclaim their country \u2013 a very clear goal worth fighting for.
\nFor Ukraine, this clear goal to achieve has had a value greater than saving lives, or it has been worth the sacrifice (or however you best express it) to give future generations a better future. <\/p>\n

Now, in mid-October 2024, this no longer seems to be the West\u2019s view of the war \u2013 the goal has shifted. Nothing is stated explicitly but we see it in ACTION from the West. Ukrainian sources keep saying that the West has not delivered what they can in 2024.
\nYes, when history is written, everyone will say that the West did deliver and that they had no more, BUT THAT IS A LIE if so intended to save the West\u2019s face.
\nWhat Ukraine is now reasonably discussing internally at all levels is what the real goal of their sacrifice is?<\/p>\n

Zelensky is trying to talk about this to the West in the clearest possible way and there is a reason he has met all Western leaders in the past month \u2013 we will not give up land, increase pressure on Russia so they leave, and if you stand behind us 100%, we are still ready for this sacrifice. We cannot do this alone, help us and you avoid your era\u2019s global conflict as a bonus.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is fighting against Russia, Iran, North Korea, China, and huge numbers of soldiers from Asia and Africa \u2013 they cannot manage this alone, the fact that they have managed so far is because the Ukrainian national spirit is made of granite.<\/p>\n

Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China know the West will not attack them so they can send everything to Ukraine. North Korea does nothing without China\u2019s silent consent and we know Chinese ammunition is in Ukraine through the \u201cNorth Korean trains.\u201d Also, ships with large amounts of ammunition have gone to RU from North Korea. We have previously written that in summer 2025 Chinese tanks and armored personnel carriers will arrive.<\/p>\n

The West lives under the belief that they must have national defense and are now strengthening these instead of sending to Ukraine. You hear this all the time and it is naturally also part of Putin\u2019s plan to get the West to strengthen themselves instead of sending to Ukraine. Portugal and Spain are placing orders for new equipment so production does not go to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Hungary just ordered a lot of JAS Gripen and Leo2A8 tanks, Serbia is buying Rafale jets, and Slovakia is also going to buy 152 CV90s \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The Netherlands will buy 84 Leo2A8s \u2013 same there, Putin couldn\u2019t have done this better.<\/p>\n

If you start to unravel this, it wouldn\u2019t surprise me if parties and movements previously associated with Putin are now positive about strongly strengthening national defense and pushing it. That all Putin-friendly countries in Europe are placing orders for the best weapons available is interesting.<\/p>\n

What Putin himself did, however, was that since it took so long for the West to finance the Czechs\u2019 155mm shell initiative, the Russians jumped ahead and bought up what they could of the shells.
\nDo you know why it took so long \u2013 the arms industry in the West complained that the shells were too cheap and were ruining the market (their expensive shells).<\/p>\n

If Ukraine does not see positive signals in action from the West, they must soon make a decision on how to handle this as a country.
\nKursk, as I have previously written, has been pointless because the West has not attributed any value to it or carried out its part of the plan and now the area is shrinking quite fast.
\nAt the Southern front, RU has just initiated its offensive and is advancing with three attack vectors and at Pokrovsk the Russian bastards have, according to Gregg, gathered a larger offensive resource.<\/p>\n

If we focus on the area by the Oskil river where RU is also advancing \u2013 if Ukraine loses that area, will they ever be able to retake it even with equipment from the West?
\nIf the answer is no, then the clear goal of the war has already fallen, right?<\/p>\n

Now we come to the real problem \u2013 even if Ukraine is starting to think about what they are fighting for and the West (I guess) has thought that then there will be negotiations, it is Russia on the other side. Since they are advancing now, Putin no longer has an incentive to stop fighting \u2013 he intends to continue forward until it stops (everyone with rudimentary knowledge of Russia probably knew that anyway).<\/p>\n

The area at the Southern front and up to Dnipro \u2013 Pavlograd risks being lost in the coming months. At the southern front stands a thin line of home guard with some battalion-sized task forces from maneuver brigades behind.
\nThe Dnipro, which was a formidable river, is now a dry riverbed north of Khakovka but still a natural barrier \u2013 I have now realized that RU has always had the possibility to blow up that dam, and others, so the natural barrier would always disappear over time.
\nThe area north of the Pavlograd \u2013 Pokrovsk line is not weak at present but Putin\u2019s first sub-goal is presumably all terrain east of the Dnipro?<\/p>\n

If I were Putin, I would increase the pressure from here \u2013 more rockets, more attacks, attack down through Belarus, new attack vector south from Bryansk. He is like a hyena smelling blood. It is also a morale boost for the Russian soldiers that they are advancing and equally demoralizing for the Ukrainian soldiers that they are retreating everywhere.<\/p>\n

The West therefore has a couple of things to deal with VERY urgently here \u2013
\n-Ukraine no longer has clear realistic combat objectives due to the West’s hesitation, and that is never good for morale.
\n-Putin has completely fooled the West regarding negotiations and the West allowed itself to be thoroughly deceived \u2013 accept this as soon as possible, shame those who have pushed that line (Biden and Scholz), and move on.<\/p>\n

-Putin will continue forward until he is stopped and he has strategic reserves to keep going \u2013 there are army corps being formed with newer equipment that would be operational by the turn of the year, 450,000 in FSB\/Rosgvardia\/PMC units, and he is recruiting heavily from Africa and Asia as well as having received a gift in the form of child soldiers from Kim Yong Un. Putin will not run out of soldiers during 2025.
\n(Putin is also militarizing the 700,000 kidnapped children and all the youth in the occupied territories \u2013 enough for a few more years of war)
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/zarinazabrisky\/status\/1845699372886937764?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

-Putin’s arms industry is functioning acceptably.
\n-Putin has managed to get countries in the West to start strengthening national defenses, and the Western countries that support him are placing orders for equipment suitable for Ukraine, and he succeeded in buying parts of the Czech 155mm alternative.
\n-Putin is forcing the USA to send equipment to I..el that could have gone to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Putin is also cunning \u2013 his only offer for negotiations will be that Ukraine must retreat from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizia, and Kherson oblasts and be “demilitarized,” which means he will demand that the West stop sending more weapons to Ukraine. Coincidentally, Germany has already confirmed that they will not send heavy equipment to Ukraine during 2025.
\nAs soon as the West and Ukraine have followed the points in the peace agreement, he will of course attack Ukraine again, and by then he will already be on the western side of the Dnieper and have rebuilt his barbarian horde.<\/p>\n

Do you all now understand that the West only has one choice \u2013 Russia must lose this war as hard as possible.<\/p>\n

Either Russia loses and we can likely de-escalate the global conflict of our time, or Ukraine loses and with them ultimately the West \u2013 you cannot have both, which Biden and Scholz have believed.
\nBiden’s strategy has reached a dead end and was doomed from the start, everyone with some knowledge understood that a long time ago.<\/p>\n

I don’t like to live on hope, but Biden is meeting Scholz on Friday and there is a microscopic chance that they understand how thoroughly deceived they have been and what they have caused \u2013 if they don’t, it will be a very serious situation indeed.<\/p>\n

There are quite a few people both in the broader debate and in this thread who argue for different outcomes that are not unusual, but then they either have not understood the seriousness of the situation or have a hidden agenda. The purpose for the USA could, for example, have been to win an election, to think about Biden’s legacy, or to have a bargaining chip against China, but the problem is that in the long run it becomes a global conflict.<\/p>\n

I am of the opinion that we may have already reached the “point of no return” because I think I see signs of a collapse in the Ukrainian defense and that RU has reached inside their decision circle, but I could be wrong even though I have never been before in my world-leading analyses.<\/p>\n

And if I am wrong, enormous amounts of equipment and ammunition (which EXISTS \u2013 do not be fooled by those with a hidden agenda who argue otherwise) and a HUGE strategic missile campaign against Russian targets all over Russia as well as unleashing Ukraine’s subversive activities in Russia will clean up this mess we are now in. Zelensky is just waiting for permission.<\/p>\n

If I am wrong, this decision absolutely must be made before New Year’s \u2013 it cannot be delayed any longer. This war will be decided in 2024 \u2013 I have said this for a long time.<\/p>\n

I hope I am wrong, but the stopwatch is ticking and today is October 15; if RU gets a breakthrough at the fronts as some retired old generals now warn, it will take them to the Dnieper.<\/p>\n

The situation at the fronts \u2013
\n-Kursk
\nReports again that Wagner has fought in Kursk, reportedly 3,000-7,000 in Belarus who have rested since summer 2023. There have also been reports of Belarus SOF fighting in Kursk but they have “run away immediately” according to UA sources.
\nRU has gathered its better units, VDV, SOF, Marine infantry, Spetsnaz, and then regular MRR.
\nMy guess is that UA was around 10,000 at the invasion start, which probably increased somewhat, and according to reports there are now 50,000 Russians around Kursk. RU’s numerical superiority should be around 5:1.
\nThe area to defend at Kursk is limited and you can hardly squeeze 10,000 there now, so today there are fewer, and then there are probably task forces on the Ukrainian side of the border maybe?
\nRU is pouring FAB into the area and pressing from all directions including “from behind” from the area behind Sejm Ukraine never managed to capture.
\nIf you look at the topographic maps, Ukraine is losing the dominant terrain in the Kursk bulge and the area closest to the border is lowland except right on the Russian side of the border.
\nUkraine seems to have started a delaying battle out of Kursk but the earlier breakthrough signals heavy pressure and if Wagner is there, it is almost a competent unit they are fighting against.
\nA wide strip they control today along the border they will be forced to abandon almost without a fight and then there are points just on the Russian side of the border they may try to continue holding.
\nBut since these are small geographically limited areas, RU can rain FAB on them.
\nKursk is lost and it is a matter of time before UA retreats out of the area.
\nIf UA had captured the area behind Sejm, they would probably have managed several more months, but when RU took the area the whole operation was doomed. Sometime in September it became clear.<\/p>\n

-Southern front
\nThe Russian bastards are advancing at three points, one of which is Vuhledar. The commentators were almost unanimous that they would pause after Vuhledar but they do not. The number of RU brigades in the area is high and they have not fought since the spring offensive 2023, so my guess is that they have been equipped and resourced.
\nUkraine has a thin home guard line along the southern front with some battalions from the maneuver brigades as task forces.
\nThe riverbed across the Dnieper is dry, which is negative because it means Ukraine must allocate units to the right bank north of Khakovka.<\/p>\n

-Pokrovsk area
\nUkraine is losing ground daily in the whole area and according to Gregg RU has gathered an offensive resource and is about to renew the offensive in that area.<\/p>\n

-Bakhmut
\nRU is advancing marginally on both sides of Chasiv Yar.<\/p>\n

-Northern Luhansk
\nThe Russian bastards have basically reached the Oskil River, they are 900m from it and offensive operations are ongoing throughout the area. Once they reach the river, they can advance north and south in the sky, which complicates things for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Yesterday we received information that China is almost the exclusive supplier to the West of an ingredient for our propellant charges for all our ammunition, and that the West should look for alternative suppliers. That the West has not done this after nearly three years of war is remarkable.<\/p>\n

Russia has also started manufacturing gun barrels, which was hoped they would not do, as well as engines for the T80 tank.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/stakmaskin\/status\/1845698883340390509?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Artillery is produced in a few hundred per year but considering the production rate in the West, it is probably on par with that.<\/p>\n

Apparently, a couple of -stan countries have supplied Russia with the materiel and components they need, and we know from before that several countries in the EU have increased their exports to -stan by up to 5000%.<\/p>\n

One question here is \u2013 our arms industry is running at half speed but we export enormous amounts to -stan which then forwards it to Russia. The capacity obviously exists, it\u2019s just that no country in the West wants to pay for it?<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s arms industry still has a redundancy of 20 billion USD but it is also not fully funded. Yes \u2013 our \u201c25 billion SEK\u201d large support package was budgetary and never intended to be handed over in cash but it would be a great help for Ukraine if we made that transfer.<\/p>\n

The conclusion is anyway that the Russian arms industry is starting to restart here.<\/p>\n

They have also started production of artillery shells to cover the annual need by 2025.<\/p>\n

There are many videos of Orion drones with X-UAV (TKB-1030) right now \u2013 it is probably a weapon RU uses in large quantities which is very strange \u2013 they should be shot down by Manpads immediately in my opinion. Ukraine stopped using Bayraktar for exactly that reason.<\/p>\n

Imagine if Ukraine got a bunch of Reaper drones with heat-seeking missiles attached, the US has built 300 of them I saw.
\nIf it works for the Russians, it should work for UA?<\/p>\n

It seems likely that RU will soon start the autumn missile barrage. They have moved missile carriers to Belarus and have completed TU95 and TU22M.
\nSo far they have sent in many Shaheds and 2-3 missiles per day and Ukraine rarely shoots down the missiles. The targets are rarely communicated so one can guess they are high-value targets.<\/p>\n

To summarize, if I am wrong the West must make several difficult decisions very soon and kicking the can down the road is no longer an option.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, Germany has already made its decision and you guessed right \u2013 they will stop providing heavy materiel to Ukraine in 2025.
\nhttps:\/\/defence-blog.com\/germany-halts-supply-of-heavy-combat-vehicles-to-ukraine\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Scholz has also recently stated that he thinks it is time for negotiations and the ban on Taurus is \u201cbecause he doesn\u2019t want it\u201d.
\nhttps:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-wants-swift-peace-in-ukraine\/a-70215563<\/a><\/p>\n

If Germany acts like this, Ukraine will give up and we will get a global conflict. North Korea, Iran, and China are nicer buddies than Germany, and Germany will continue to be remembered for starting big wars just as they have so far \u2013 managing to be on the wrong side of history for 100 years and three global conflicts is somewhat of a record.<\/p>\n

We all hope that Biden will open the floodgates to Sierra after November 5, he can issue \u201cexecutive orders\u201d for quite a lot of materiel that could be sent.<\/p>\n

He can also completely on his own tell the EU that they can send whatever they want and that it can be used against targets inside Russia \u2013 it is only Biden who is blocking this from happening.<\/p>\n

That he canceled Ramstein instead of, for example, sending Blinken there and completely dismissed Zelensky\u2019s peace plan when our time\u2019s Churchill visited him in the US is somewhat worryingly not a sign of that. But he is to visit Scholz on Friday and hope is the last thing to die.<\/p>\n

If I may guess, I don\u2019t think Biden as a person wants to be remembered as the president who \u201cstarted World War III\u201d in his last months as president. It is more attractive to do nothing and preserve peace.
\nBiden, like everyone else, has different advisors to consider and chooses whom to listen to, so far he has obviously not listened to those who say Russia must lose big \u2013 we know that because we have seen it in action.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s subversive activities are effective and we have discussed the following several times before but only now are we beginning to see the outcome of this influence \u2013
\n-countries in the West will start to build up their national defenses against the Russian threat and stop existing materiel from being sent to Ukraine as well as place orders for new materiel for themselves so Ukraine cannot buy anything on the open market.<\/p>\n

-the West has been led to believe that Putin wants negotiations and that the only one who needed to be persuaded was Ukraine. Zelensky\u2019s \u201cwe know we have to choose in November\u201d was a hint about that.<\/p>\n

-the West has wanted to avoid a \u201cglobal conflict\u201d or a nuclear war and has been made to believe that if Russia loses, we either get nuclear war or that they collapse into a deadly chaos. And they have been led to believe there is some kind of balance in that it should not go too well or too badly for Russia. We have also heard these arguments in the thread about the risk of nuclear weapons or the danger if Russia suffers a humiliating defeat.<\/p>\n

We have now reached the end of the road where the West either does what some in the thread have said all along since the war started and Ukraine gets its big win or Ukraine will give up and Russia continues. There is no middle ground here \u2013 Russian loss or Ukrainian loss, and a Ukrainian loss leads us to a global conflict.<\/p>\n

With a bit of luck, the clock is only five to twelve and not an hour past twelve \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The West seems to completely lack security thinking regarding the arms industry \u2013 that Slovakia, Hungary, and Serbia are allowed to place huge orders for our advanced weapons platforms when it is crystal clear that they are only doing it to remove the weapons from the market is interesting.<\/p>\n

That they then choose to let China control an ingredient for all our ammunition is also hard to understand the logic behind.<\/p>\n

Almost three years of war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Better not say anything about Trump because then it takes over the entire discussion in the thread, we will know in 2.5 weeks who the American people choose as president and then we must respect that and act security-wise accordingly.<\/p>\n

Poland has a complicated relationship with Ukraine to say the least and then they are on the front against Belarus and must think about their own national defense. If the West does not ask Poland to act, Poland will not dare to act freely is my guess.
\nFor example \u2013 you get a no-fly zone over western Ukraine and the UK\/France forward deploy the same number of aircraft to Poland.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It has been a long time since so many red circles with rifles were seen on Liveuamap and I think they are increasing?
\nThat map is updated based on confirmed hostilities and is therefore ahead of Deepstatemap, which is probably three days behind.
\nThen the situation changes all the time and when it appears on Deepstatemap it is a bit more definitive.<\/p>\n

Then we also have this one which is fairly updated.
\nhttps:\/\/storymaps.arcgis.com\/stories\/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375<\/a><\/p>\n

Project Owl and Militaryland probably focus more on the units than the maps themselves but Project Owl has updated the fortification map quite well.<\/p>\n

You do know that Defmon still updates the units?<\/p>\n

This one, I think, has been updated regarding the fortifications.
\nhttps:\/\/www.google.com\/maps\/d\/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ&ll=51.52570820375222%2C35.41752314426256&z=8<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, we have hoped throughout an entire war that Russia would turn inward but it has also been the West\u2019s very explicit desire that Russia NOT collapse or otherwise be destabilized.<\/p>\n

That reasonably includes that the West does not start color revolutions in Russia\u2019s republics and then politely asks Ukraine not to conduct its subversive activities at supersonic speed inside Russia if they want to be part of the EU.<\/p>\n

What is the fastest way to end the war, also called the \u201cBubble list,\u201d which one could not predict the outcome of.
\nThat is what the West wants to avoid at all costs.<\/p>\n

Then Russia is backed by China and it is not in China\u2019s interest that Russia collapses and the country still has the capacity to support.<\/p>\n

Then the EU buys oil from the shadow fleet, buys LNG and tries to force Ukraine NOT to terminate the transit agreement now at the turn of the year. So the EU still gives quite a lot of export revenues to Russia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

One could argue that a situation like in Ukraine is required for it to be done but there is a lot that should be done. And above all \u2013 if you want peace you must prepare for war.<\/p>\n

I recall that the price for a 155mm shell went up from 800 USD to thousands of USD when someone summed up how many shells you got for the allocated funds.<\/p>\n

If these decisions are not understood today, one will have to make decisions about sending their sons to death tomorrow.<\/p>\n

That there aren\u2019t two divisions in the Baltic states of EU-based units already is incomprehensible to me.<\/p>\n

That the Baltic states have not received funds from the EU to build their own Surovikin line is also incomprehensible to me.
\nThe whole world knows that a 10 km deep minefield with bunkers and drones as well as artillery worked as a brake.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I can\u2019t decide if we are past or just near the breaking point but we are at least quite close.
\nIt should therefore be absolutely decisive what decisions the usual suspects Biden, Scholz, Starmer, Macron and Meloni make until Christmas.<\/p>\n

Yes, we need national defense \u2013 absolutely.
\nBut\u2026
\nRight now Ukraine gets nothing at all because everyone thinks they need everything and all Western weapons production for national defense.<\/p>\n

That must be unlocked very soon because Portugal, the Netherlands and Spain only need equipment for national defense if Ukraine loses.<\/p>\n

But unfortunately NATO has announced that they will re-establish 49 brigades and the members have been mandated this decision.
\nEquipment that Ukraine should have received\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Russia is a colonial power and is conducting this war with \u2013 prisoners, unwanted nationalities in republics, soldiers from Africa, soldiers from Asia and now also North Koreans whom Putin has paid in gold bars or possibly something else of equal value to Kim Yong Un. There are also Chinese in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

At the beginning of the war they let the DPR and LPR units take the biggest losses but they probably ran out of candidates there and those remaining are becoming quite good at fighting so they are careful with them.<\/p>\n

The better units recruit \u201cMuscovite Russians\u201d \u2013 Spetsnaz, reconnaissance, VDV, SOF, naval infantry and prioritized MRR or TB, and they have higher status.<\/p>\n

Those popularly called the \u201cmeat wall\u201d are probably the ones they constantly sacrifice and are the first category mentioned.<\/p>\n

And then when really needed they take from the elite as now up in Kursk.<\/p>\n

Extremely cynical but it means the impact on those who \u201ccount\u201d is less than it otherwise would have been.<\/p>\n

Wagner operated like that, sending forward the unwanted children to identify the defense and then hitting with the elite Wagner when they thought they could achieve something with reasonable losses.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Those arrested who are to go to court now have the alternative to sign a contract for Ukraine and have the crime immediately statute-barred?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Then Putin is militarizing all the children they have kidnapped and all the children in the occupied areas and they are intended to become soldiers in a few years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

What volumes of new production are we talking about here?
\nAre tanks included in this new production (I don\u2019t think so)?
\nI have the impression that Ukraine will get Lynx and that other one and that maybe the first 10 Lynx possibly would be delivered during 2024?
\nGermany has accepted quite a lot of orders for Leopard 2A8 to various countries now so I guess Ukraine is not included there.<\/p>\n

Doesn\u2019t that practically mean there won\u2019t be much heavy equipment in 2025?<\/p>\n

Is \u201cmass slaughter and maybe even Ukrainian gains in the end\u201d statistically certain or is it a wild guess by Gregg?<\/p>\n

What is interesting is that the Russians have gathered units for another offensive just as they have started an offensive on the southern front.<\/p>\n

When Ukraine said they would be over the worst in September and everyone says that when the muddy season starts calm settles over the fronts \u2013 it doesn\u2019t seem like the Russians are doing as they are told here.<\/p>\n

It also seems many underestimate their offensive capability.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The difficult thing is the definition of whether poisoning water is an escalation or not \u2013 since nothing increases from it but rather the opposite \u2013 people die and the population in the locality decreases, so maybe the right word is to call it de-escalation?<\/p>\n

Then hybrid warfare is a strong word, isn\u2019t \u201cwater quality\u201d a better description?<\/p>\n

Shouldn\u2019t it really be described like this: Russia has helped to de-escalate by changing the water quality?<\/p>\n

(one could probably keep going like this for a couple more years if one just wanted to).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Those with greater influence are \u201cprisoners\u201d in their work and the environment they operate in and they have many factors to consider. That said, the presidents of Finland, Latvia, Denmark and many other small countries have tried to raise exactly the same issues but they are too small to get traction.<\/p>\n

Macron tried but didn\u2019t get the others on board. Germany has made up its mind and the USA probably has other things to think about.<\/p>\n

There is a reason why it is only retired generals who are warning in semi-panic about a front collapse right now.<\/p>\n

Sitting anonymously in a thread is convenient and one can speculate quite a bit even though surprisingly much has proven to be true over time in this war despite some downplaying it.<\/p>\n

Anyone who has done group work knows how difficult it is to get everyone to contribute, and when it is unknown mined ground with the risk of crashing your own career, it is even easier to be reserved.<\/p>\n

All of this is very comfortable for Putin to navigate within and he has an enormous organization that allows him to control far too much with his subversive activities. Just as he did during the Cold War.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:46 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thank you for trying to stay as non-negative as possible, otherwise it would probably have become incredibly bleak!<\/p>\n

You could very well be right in your analysis, considering that Ukraine has retreated a whole year except for Kursk, one cannot draw any other conclusions than that Western support has been far too poor.<\/p>\n

I almost expected the Russians to retake Kursk, the problem is that I thought it would happen at the cost of them losing on other fronts. Instead, they have just continued forward everywhere.<\/p>\n

I am not entirely sure the war will be over in 2024. Even if the West does not increase support, I think they can hold out longer, but it is quite possible that the assessment is that it is better to negotiate than to prolong it. Because if the West does not do more, unfortunately it is only a matter of time.<\/p>\n

I do not believe that a loss for Ukraine will lead to any global escalation. If the West does not care more about what happens to Ukraine than they have so far, they will hardly do anything even if Russia takes the whole country. I think Putin will be satisfied with Ukraine. He will have gotten away with it by a hair\u2019s breadth and I do not think he dares to attack any NATO country in the near future. He is getting on in years and will probably be content with the hero status he would get in Russia when he has “returned Ukraine to the motherland.” (Ugh, I feel sick just thinking about it).<\/p>\n

Of course, he might have gotten a taste for it, but I think he is too smart to choose to continue.
\nI mostly think the speculations about this are successful Russian psyops aimed at getting all countries to build up their defenses instead of giving everything they can to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

It is probably a bigger risk that China concludes that the US and the West are actually not willing to sacrifice that much and sees Taiwan as an easy target. It\u2019s almost surprising they haven\u2019t started now ahead of the election. Although they probably have an exercise underway. That\u2019s how the Russians started. It\u2019s just an exercise, we\u2019re not going to do anything.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think anything revolutionary will happen at the meeting between Biden and Scholz but you can keep your fingers crossed that something real happens after the election.
\nUnfortunately, the chance is high that the Democrats continue as half-hearted as before (and if they have the House against them it is hard to get bigger appropriations through) and the obvious risk with Trump is that he stops supporting Ukraine completely.
\nNow Trump is unpredictable so there is a minimal chance he does the exact opposite. If he calls Putin and gets a mocking laugh back maybe he sends everything he can, but that\u2019s not something I would bet even a dime on.<\/p>\n

Regardless, even if it looks bleak there is always a chance it will turn around.
\nPartly it is not certain that it is as bad as it looks and partly there is hope that the West will toughen up.<\/p>\n

As long as Ukraine does not give up, I refuse to allow myself to give up!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes exactly, I even thought the area was conquered and realized to my horror a few weeks ago that they did not succeed, and somewhere around when Zelensky came back empty-handed from the US it became crystal clear where it was heading.<\/p>\n

The problem with things like this is that you have to make assumptions until you get something that supports it and then you have to decide if it is accurate or not, and it is quite messy.<\/p>\n

Now Ukraine is retreating everywhere and RU is starting new offensives in streamlining jumps, and UA is losing terrain they absolutely do not want to lose \u2013 Sejm and Oskil. Then you have to assume that Ukraine does not have the strategic reserves they hoped for because we are already past the point where they should have been deployed in battle.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine at the time had thundered in with 5-6 fully equipped brigades straight into the area behind Sejm, the two brigades or so defending there would have been completely overrun. Then Ukraine would also have had an excellent defensive position in Kursk.<\/p>\n

And now we also know that the Russians have a North Korean strategic reserve ready to be deployed in a few months and we also know that they have 1-2 army corps that would be ready by the turn of the year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes \u2013 when we reached the point that the West did not do what they must or else it\u2019s over, it was no longer any point in spreading hope that the West would do what was needed \u2013 which was a bit what I tried to do until that point.<\/p>\n

That decision should have been made around August 6, 2024.
\nMy hope now is that we are still “five to twelve” and that Biden and Scholz come to their senses on Friday but Dengamle says that Biden is old-man scared and it\u2019s over \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I then have to remind that you do the opposite and put your hope in Russia collapsing instead. In May 2022 we understood that the war THEN was a fly on the wall for Putin and got a good calibration.<\/p>\n

The biggest problem I see with what you argue, which by the way is highly desirable and something everyone should strive for, is that the West (Biden and Scholz) absolutely do not want that and that the West still buys Russian oil and LNG.<\/p>\n

If Scholz and Biden had started a green revolution with green t-shirts in Russia, and green socks, the sh*thole country would probably have fallen pretty fast. Same if they had ensured that sanctions were enforced.
\nThe EU has even allowed the Russian shadow fleet to dock in EU ports and bought their oil and now they are trying to force Ukraine not to stop the LNG transit agreement this winter.<\/p>\n

So yes \u2013 you could probably break Russia\u2019s back quite quickly but I think the West has been too complicit out of fear of Russian collapse.<\/p>\n

I have also reviewed the equipment supplied by the West and realized that Ukraine has lost half of it and has not had it replaced.
\nThis reasonably means that they have about half of the equipment they had in 2023, if not even less.<\/p>\n

And the big question is how the air defense is holding up, because soon the Russians’ missile barrage will begin.<\/p>\n

So if the Russians start running low on equipment, Ukraine will have followed suit, which then maintains the same balance.
\nThis is probably what has been suspected that the West has been doing \u2013 trying to maintain a balance in this war.<\/p>\n

Yes \u2013 the history we read is always adjusted, and this is my first global conflict that I follow so closely that I have seen every decision and non-decision. Throughout the war, I have refused to read other people’s analyses and have only looked at what is happening on the battlefield, what we can suspect, and which decisions are made or non-decisions that should have been made.
\nI also used the forum to bounce questions to advance the analyses even if the thread perhaps did not realize that I was manipulating them \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

In this way, I can form a completely personal view of the state of affairs without layers of how others have perceived everything.
\nI can shape what I consider a correct understanding based on firsthand experience, which is not something I was taught was the truth at war school or history lessons.<\/p>\n

I think it is valuable, but one gets a bit more bitter over time, I must admit \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Older people who experienced WW2 or were involved and saw what was going on during the Cold War naturally have the same, but the problem during the Cold War was that information could be suppressed.<\/p>\n

Now we get everything in real time, and nothing can be hidden for long, which is a great advantage that one would not want to miss.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

What I usually write is that \u201cthe war will be decided in 2024,\u201d earlier I wrote that the broad strokes are painted this year. That does not mean the war is over, only that we are moving towards an end, whatever that may be.
\nIt could be a ceasefire, negotiations and frozen fronts, Biden could completely lose it and start sending Abrams and Tomahawk, or Ukraine could give up all territory east of the Dnipro
\n\u2013 whatever it is will be clear before the turn of the year.<\/p>\n

Will there be more war or not, and will Putin be satisfied with Ukraine?<\/p>\n

-Putin is, in my opinion, the archetype of a man with imperial ambitions, and BRIICS as an organization is to challenge the West.
\n-NATO will expand with 49 brigades, and Finland, the Baltics, and Poland warn Russia against trying anything.
\n-Russia supports Hamas and planned October 7.
\n-Russia supports Hezbollah
\n-Russia supports half of Africa’s dictatorships and tries to start interstate wars.
\n-Russia is involved in influencing the US presidential election
\n-Russia has carried out a large number of sabotage acts in Europe over the past year \u2013 the list was probably posted in the thread.
\n-\u201cSomeone\u201d has tried to get Venezuela going.
\n-\u201cSomeone\u201d is trying to get North Korea going.<\/p>\n

To me, it looks like we are already in a global conflict \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

I personally believe that the Biden \u2013 Scholz meeting will dangerously raise blood pressure, but now that one should try to be positive, one has to place hope in something at least.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

What I usually write is that \u201cthe war will be decided in 2024,\u201d earlier I wrote that the broad strokes are painted this year. That does not mean the war is over, only that we are moving towards an end, whatever that may be.
\nIt could be a ceasefire, negotiations and frozen fronts, Biden could completely lose it and start sending Abrams and Tomahawk, or Ukraine could give up all territory east of the Dnipro
\n\u2013 whatever it is will be clear before the turn of the year.<\/p>\n

Will there be more war or not, and will Putin be satisfied with Ukraine?<\/p>\n

-Putin is, in my opinion, the archetype of a man with imperial ambitions, and BRIICS as an organization is to challenge the West.
\n-NATO will expand with 49 brigades, and Finland, the Baltics, and Poland warn Russia against trying anything.
\n-Russia supports H..as and planned October 7.
\n-Russia supports He\u2026bollh
\n-Russia supports half of Africa’s dictatorships and tries to start interstate wars.
\n-Russia is involved in influencing the US presidential election
\n-Russia has carried out a large number of sabotage acts in Europe over the past year \u2013 the list was probably posted in the thread.
\n-\u201cSomeone\u201d has tried to get Venezuela going.
\n-\u201cSomeone\u201d is trying to get North Korea going.<\/p>\n

To me, it looks like we are already in a global conflict \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

I personally believe that the Biden \u2013 Scholz meeting will dangerously raise blood pressure, but now that one should try to be positive, one has to place hope in something at least.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The order has gone out to everyone today to rewrite about the North Korean soldiers, as you may have noticed \u2013 all other news is drowned in this.<\/p>\n

Probably a smart move because Biden is going to Scholz on Friday, and then they get something else to talk about than peace negotiations and agreeing on what not to send.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
17:58 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, regarding influence operations, I of course agree, but I still don’t believe that Russia will escalate the military conflict (unless it ends with them getting China on board, of course, and they decide to go all in to divide the world among themselves).<\/p>\n

Biden is strange. He promised Zelensky that the US would back them, and that support may have been one of the reasons they decided to do everything they could to stop the Russians. Now it may end with the meeting with Scholz instead being the occasion when the two decide to try to end the war as soon as possible. Both are equally anxious.
\nOr they realize they have to do the opposite, although I suspect it will be neither one nor the other.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Finland’s foreign minister admits that some leaders in the West have grown tired and talk about ceasefires among themselves behind closed doors \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1846135445412868293?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:30 \u2013 Johan No.1 Today I\u2019m trying to post a message that fairly clearly describes the situation as it is 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