{"id":9578,"date":"2024-10-17T09:48:11","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T07:48:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-10-17-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T10:35:47","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:35:47","slug":"2024-10-17-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-10-17-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-10-17"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Belarus’ status is what the West decides it is.<\/p>\n

Technically, they are already a belligerent party in this war.
\nBelarusian units have already fought in Ukraine on the Russian side.
\nThey have sent much of their equipment to Russia.
\nThey have allowed their country to be used for air and missile attacks against Ukraine.
\nIt’s a bit difficult to know if Belarus at the start of the war fired its own artillery across the border or used aircraft or not, probably just poor oversight.
\nAt least Lukashenko managed to delay the ground invasion until he got out of that predicament.<\/p>\n

Belarus has also assisted in the kidnapping of Ukrainian children but that might not be a declaration of war, just trafficking.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Interesting that NATO comes out and questions the authenticity of Ukraine’s claim that North Korean soldiers are fighting in Ukraine.
\nThey have received more information than we have \u2013 North Korean soldiers have already been killed in combat according to unconfirmed reports.<\/p>\n

So NATO chooses to go against South Korea and Ukraine, which are probably the two countries that should have the best intelligence on the matter?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/ralee85\/status\/1846640997977252045?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Today it’s sour, salty, and sweet all at once \u2013 or like mixing jungle licorice and zoo candy as Dengamle would say, because unfortunately he usually does that too \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

By the way, he sends his regards and thinks I’m a bit too forgiving towards Biden but I explained that apparently there is some thread rule in thread etiquette that he gets away with everything. Dengamle then asked if that also applies to Trump if he wins the election and I said absolutely, a clear line in thread etiquette applies and anything else would be hypocrisy.<\/p>\n

Yes, you read that right \u2013 there will be no more Biden criticism (might have something to do with a certain aid package) \ud83d\ude01 <\/p>\n

I also harbor a very small hope that we can completely leave the USA behind us, not just the completely uninteresting election, in the thread because the deliveries are unlocked through Biden’s executive orders. If only the EU on Friday also gets the USA’s permission to put a Storm Shadow in the Kremlin, we are almost back on track \u2013 I think there have been some indications of that from the UK.<\/p>\n

I also have to remind about these EXECUTIVE ORDERS and that as president you are the one who writes them when the constant discussion goes in circles that a president in the USA only has ceremonial power. Normally, presidents usually use this opportunity to pardon their friends or do favors for those who paid best just before they leave office but here you can actually make the world a better place for once through this presidential right.<\/p>\n

USA’s latest aid package is significantly better than what we had a few weeks ago and more in line with what Ukraine actually requests. Above all, it’s strange that they can send thousands of heavy vehicles when they have none according to “some”.<\/p>\n

And then a third flickering flame from a small candle out in a big field in a winter storm that Ukraine has been allowed to attack into Russia \u2013 they have just crossed the border in Belgorod for example and in terms of escalation as the West sees it, this is an escalation. It is done at the same time as Ukraine receives aid packages from the USA\u2026<\/p>\n

Now you have all probably read Zelensky’s victory plan and feel that it aligns with some long texts in the thread’s view on things?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/banderafella\/status\/1846485746967855244?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

That some mild criticism is that “one wants to be happy reading the thread and not read things like this” is only because one then does not care about the rivers of children’s blood but believes one should be entertained by what is written but that is not the case \u2013 the situation as it is should be described as it is. Being entertained and made happy is not part of the package. When it is also in line with what Ukraine itself says in a thread that is supposed to support Ukraine, it is hard to say it is inappropriate?<\/p>\n

The victory plan may have leaked before so no direct news but it is uncompromising and extremely clever because it does not give Western leaders that attractive middle path they always try to take \u2013 either you are with Ukraine or against Ukraine. And either Russia loses or Russia wins. Time to choose for or against Ukraine then \u2013 the weather vanes will agonize \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

Zelensky is clear \u2013 if Ukraine does not get help, Russia today is not the least close to collapsing and will become stronger. This is also the line I push or how good that Zelensky confirms it.
\nThe only thing Zelensky does not say is that Ukraine then risks throwing in the towel but everyone else says that through other channels instead so it has already been communicated under the table. This is also what we see on the battlefield because Ukraine is retreating, in August \u2013 September Russia captured more territory than during all of 2023 for example.<\/p>\n

Zelensky asks for explicit permission to attack into Russia which means it has NOT been allowed before so it can go from conspiracy to truth which supports our previous claims \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

The plan is simple \u2013 Ukraine must regain the country to the 1991 borders but today they cannot. To manage that, Putin must be severely weakened through missile rain, resourced strategic reserves, tougher sanctions and above all ROCK HARD strategic communication from the West.<\/p>\n

Scholz was quite predictably the first crack in the wall by skipping to step 4 in the victory plan and starting to babble about negotiations, Scholz always delivers just as expected \ud83e\udd23
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1846533969157734843?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then I have a small theory that NATO membership will be what Ukraine is willing to sacrifice when negotiations come. EU membership Putin doesn’t seem to care about. But sad that the US ambassador to something comes out and immediately ruins that negotiating position \u2013 they should have some damn communication discipline here. They take the liberty to weaken Ukraine’s negotiating position \ud83d\ude21
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1846574838330073389?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Anyway \u2013 Putin is furious about the Victory Plan which is as good a confirmation as any that Zelensky is completely right.<\/p>\n

We often discuss whether our politicians have perfect handling of the situation behind closed doors and that we just don’t know so we sit in our ignorance and criticize everyone unnecessarily. You know that endless discussion that the USA always knows they are doing everything right.
\nI find the defense proposition interesting because it is a direct confirmation of preparations for the coming years for a much worsened world situation where the biggest risk is torture centers and raped and murdered five-year-olds.
\nDid you feel that Sweden now made all necessary preparations to want peace but prepared for war (I don’t know, I’m asking)?<\/p>\n

There is at least one politician who thinks his colleague is completely wrong, and that is the opposition leader in Germany \u2013 he lets it be known that if he were chancellor in Germany, he would have sent Taurus within 24 hours if Russia did not stop all bombing of civilian targets in Ukraine.
\nSince no living Russian today can stop a few thousand artillery pieces within 24 hours, this reasonably means that he intends to send Taurus and came up with a poor excuse?
\nThat Taurus becomes the hill Scholz is willing to die on is at least interesting but reflects, if I understand correctly, how his party thinks and feels about the Russia issue.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1846605360708059335?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If you remember how this was supposed to play out when we described it earlier, there were a couple of attack vectors into Russia (Bryansk\/Belgorod), a missile barrage against high-value targets, and then a resource-equipped offensive reserve. Now the missile barrage did not happen, the equipment did not arrive, and the West got pissed off that Ukraine had the audacity to invade Russia. Everything that could go wrong with Western support went wrong, and it took dangerously long before it started to change.<\/p>\n

The war will be decided in 2024 whether we want it or not; this is the year the broad strokes are painted. Now larger offensive operations were missing because equipment was not delivered \u2013 only now are those Leo1A5s starting to arrive, and they were promised 19 months ago.
\nhttps:\/\/daxe.substack.com\/p\/it-took-19-months-for-ukraines-allies<\/a><\/p>\n

I have been a bit lazy regarding delivered equipment and relied on Oryx, but actual deliveries have demonstrably been slow, and what Zelensky has said is true.<\/p>\n

So offensive operations will have to continue during 2025, but by then Russia will already be weakened after a missile barrage this fall, they know that the West fully supports Ukraine, and they know that Ukraine has fully equipped maneuver brigades that far exceed theirs. And that is when the Bubble List becomes interesting \u2013 because when Ukraine feels hope, it is the opposite in Russia, and then anything can happen anytime.<\/p>\n

Either the West undermines Putin\u2019s position or they prop him up \u2013 there is no middle ground.
\nIf we can now get the missile barrage, the equipment, and Ukraine can storm into Russia as they see fit, Ukraine will get what they ask for, just far too late.<\/p>\n

A fairly large part of whether this could succeed or not is if Ukraine has hope \u2013 never underestimate hope. It is a factor almost everyone always forgets, but it is how wars are won or lost.<\/p>\n

This hope is usually portrayed as something peaceful and serene in the thread, which is also beautiful. But it is actually hope to kill as many Russians as possible in the most brutal way until they give up we are after here \u2013 a very violent and bloody hope with Russians burning inside their destroyed vehicles or getting a drone-dropped wing grenade that explodes in their stomach.<\/p>\n

The Ukrainian soldier must feel hope so he is prepared to kill other people, many other people, for us and our freedom.<\/p>\n

The West must show that we stand behind Ukraine in words and deeds and give them a clear goal \u2013 then they will be ready to fight for this and kill other people.<\/p>\n

As a bonus, which I guess is extremely attractive to our leaders, it is Ukrainians who go and die and not our own sons (and daughters as well as all other identities).<\/p>\n

Today I would summarize what was needed in hard vehicles and then the US came with a new sensible package after that idiotic \u201c150 M1117\u201d.
\nEverything is wordplay but \u201cthousands\u201d is more than 2000 because it is \u201ca couple of thousands,\u201d and it should be more than 3000 because it is a strong plural expression. If they had meant 3000, they would have written it.
\nI interpret thousands as at least 4000-5000 hard vehicles, but the link below does not interpret it the same way.
\nHi, you will get \u201cthousands\u201d of armored personnel carriers \u2013 does that sound like 2000?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jeff21461\/status\/1846627020576367002?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cHundreds of\u201d APCs and IFVs are promised, so presumably more Bradleys and M113\/M1117?
\nIt also seems like the US promises more ammunition, especially long-range cluster ATACMS if they are not bluffing us completely?<\/p>\n

If deliveries are to resume after this damn desert march (for the second time\u2026), the rest of the West will follow because they have done so before \u2013
\nThe US has now allowed the 49 M1 Abrams from Australia to be sent to UA; they bought them from Australia in 2004, I think.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1846534049365430728?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then there are Kuwait\u2019s tanks, and the US still has lots of M60s. Morocco and Croatia had tanks, and Bulgaria still sits on an ENORMOUS pile of equipment.
\nItaly has promised to sell surplus equipment (so Italian..) to Ukraine, and some of the equipment produced in the West is presumably intended for Ukraine \u2013 orders for Bohdana, Caesar, and CV9035.
\nThe UK will send tracked howitzers, and presumably production in the West will now start \u2013 after all, it is a huge chance to sell large quantities to Ukraine, and that is hard cash.<\/p>\n

If the West can just make that push now at last and deliver what is needed, then Sweden, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, the UK, and Portugal should do as France and Germany and train at least one brigade each.<\/p>\n

If we can go from passivity to activity, Ukraine will have its strategic offensive reserve ready in time for the spring offensive 2025.
\nNow it also seems like the F-16 will be delayed even longer, so 2025 it is, maybe.<\/p>\n

The West could try to learn a bit from South Korea \u2013 they went straight out and let it be known that if North Korean soldiers are seen at the fronts, South Korea will open its stockpiles for Ukraine.
\nA well-measured threat that carries a lot of weight behind it. South Korea also has a few hundred tanks that have been retired from the organization \ud83d\ude01<\/p>\n

Even if I were completely indifferent to the war, I would think Zelensky\u2019s victory plan is completely reasonable, especially \u2013 when the war is over, we can protect you, and we have the natural resources you need.
\nHard not to see good business in this too \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think you can ever have too many tanks, so now let\u2019s hope we get programs going to get a few thousand to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

But after such a positive post without criticizing Biden, I have to remind that our friends in Ukraine now have to \u2013
\n-try to hold Kursk against 50,000 \u2013 70,000 Russians.
\n-handle the ongoing Russian offensive on the southern front.
\n-handle the upcoming Russian offensive at Pokrovsk.
\n-manage a Russian autumn missile barrage.
\n-hold out in northern Luhansk so the Russians don\u2019t get a new defensive line along the Oskil.<\/p>\n

And this with poorly equipped and death-weary maneuver brigades that have fought far beyond what can be expected of anyone.<\/p>\n

This is to be able to win the war in 2025 because the West has dawdled with everything.<\/p>\n

So not everything is super fun and in my opinion completely unnecessary because the decisions could have been made much earlier, just like in the whole damn war.<\/p>\n

And the caveat is of course that the usual suspects don\u2019t surprise negatively tomorrow in some joint statement that makes you unable to sleep for a few days \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

You all understand that Putin is testing the West to see how far he can go \u2013 the drones into Poland and Romania are a test and all the sabotage in the EU as well, and most recently he has started attacking civilian ships in Odessa to see what happens. And if nothing happens, he increases the pressure. The safest way for the West to get a nuclear weapon in some big city is not to set clear boundaries.<\/p>\n

One explanation for how Germany behaves could be that the Russian subversive activity is running at turbo speed right now, but that excuses nothing, it just makes the EU\u2019s destructive behavior a bit more understandable.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/alexandravonnah\/status\/1846272048143978710?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now that I have been converted by Dengamle and ended all Biden criticism, I just want to flag that I have also become very anti-USA-election converted and will manifest that with religious \ud83e\udd22\ud83e\udd22\ud83e\udd22 after such discussions.<\/p>\n

That does not mean that I support Trump as MXT above in his enormous dishonesty and evil has expanded his very loose definition to.<\/p>\n

It just means that I think Biden will send the support required, and unlock the use of Storm Shadows so that when it finally becomes January 20, this will already have been done to Ukraine\u2019s advantage.
\nSo here I choose to believe those in the thread who say that after the election Biden no longer has a leash on him.<\/p>\n

And that post-January 20 then has less bearing on the Ukraine war because everything is already unlocked.<\/p>\n

But if the devil chooses to show himself in the form of MXT and tries to mislead us good people, we have our faith and our cross to rely on. Garlic probably works too, and daylight.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I\u2019ll fall in line and write BRILLIANT!
\n(You don\u2019t dare to criticize, or you\u2019ll hear about it until the day you die.) \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n

Especially nice was how you managed to avoid writing about Biden by\u2026 writing about Biden! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

You don\u2019t need to read further down the thread, let this be your last comment for the day \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:16 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I don\u2019t comment on such insignificant events.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This one \ud83d\ude33<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/der_parrot\/status\/1846775515236970560?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Oh no, you missed my message to you above not to read further down the thread after you wrote a really nice comment on my post of the day and called the post BRILLIANT \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

In terms of psychological warfare, you have won a big victory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:01 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

I only care about Ukraine\u2019s victory!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

You won the war<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

There is often some complaining about the poor Ukrainian soldier equipment, so as a comparison I present a Swedish sabotage group during exercise \u2013 real thoroughbred pros to say the least.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/kalla_kriget\/status\/1846628175700238532?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now let\u2019s see if I can make my point without getting tarred and feathered as the thread\u2019s biggest Trump fan.<\/p>\n

Zelensky now has a series of meetings and goes absolutely HARD in everything, he swings like a zen monk or so.<\/p>\n

This is three weeks before the US election and both candidates have something completely new and unpredictable to relate to.
\nNo analysis groups or polls have been done on how voters feel about these issues at all and everything is mined ground.<\/p>\n

When the US ambassador to NATO directly said that Ukraine may\/can (I don\u2019t remember\u2026) join NATO, the statement is highly explosive \u2013 what if some candidate manages to stick that on the other and the voters get fired up about it?<\/p>\n

What I\u2019m wondering is whether Zelensky has been asked not to go bananas just before the election but does it anyway?
\nAnd everyone seems to be playing along?<\/p>\n

Is Zelensky starting to get a good grip on the situation?<\/p>\n

He probably has several more meetings booked here before the November 5 election?<\/p>\n

It is refreshing in any case and it seems only Scholz is sulking right now and has to go out with it in the media.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I think it\u2019s a combination, Zelensky probably has a pretty good handle on the situation, but probably also feels pressured to get some kind of decisive outcome or at least a clear stance from the West.
\nAre you going to help Ukraine win or not, make up your damn mind!<\/p>\n

\ud83e\udd22\ud83e\udd22\ud83e\udd22 It absolutely cannot have any connection to [redacted], because that is meaningless before January 20! \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

The connection to the election was only that various people in the US probably would have preferred him to wait with this steamroller.
\nThere was nothing about polls and who is leading there, or who would benefit or not benefit from the statements?<\/p>\n

And then I also strongly distance myself from Punkt above, very strongly distance myself \ud83e\udd1a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

A bit more serious reasoning (now that I\u2019m sitting at the computer again and can write a bit longer).<\/p>\n

Zelensky started working on the victory plan a while ago, the fact that it is released now need not mean anything but can be how it fell in time with meetings etc., but it can of course also be a bit in hope that Biden or Trump will bite.<\/p>\n

There is now strong support for Ukraine in the US but unfortunately it is probably not an issue prioritized by most when it comes time to vote if you believe what everyone says. Domestic politics is more important.<\/p>\n

For Trump, there is no point in expressing support for Ukraine. His core supporters are on the contrary those who would prefer not to give Ukraine anything at all and it would probably be perceived as very strange if he were to switch sides. Zelensky must of course still try to get him on board. He can win.<\/p>\n

For Biden and the Democrats, the strategy seems to be to sit tight and hope nothing negative happens before the election. Those who think support for Ukraine is most important probably already vote for them.<\/p>\n

But Zelensky\u2019s peace plan contains a point that is almost forgotten (yes, I know you mentioned it, but I also think about what is written e.g. on Twitter) but which should actually be able to attract Biden.<\/p>\n

It is about Ukraine promising to replace American soldiers in Europe (certainly impossible 100% but still).<\/p>\n

Biden could approve the victory package and then go big that significantly fewer American soldiers will be involved if there is a war in Europe. Then it is American lives he is protecting. Then it suddenly becomes a domestic political issue. I actually think that could be an advantage for Biden and the Democrats (and also shows that they seriously support Ukraine).<\/p>\n

Moreover, with the situation prevailing in the rest of the world, American soldiers may be needed elsewhere, so it should actually be appealing to avoid having more soldiers than necessary stationed in Europe.<\/p>\n

I hope someone explains those advantages to Biden.<\/p>\n

Ah, now you tricked me into getting involved in [redacted] but you actually have only yourself to blame!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

We present \u2013 <\/p>\n

Russian bastard with blanket<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/bayraktar_1love\/status\/1847010634627797435?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:56 \u2013 Johan No.1 Belarus’ status is what the West decides it is. 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