{"id":9580,"date":"2024-10-18T10:26:24","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T08:26:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-10-18-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T10:35:56","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:35:56","slug":"2024-10-18-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-10-18-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-10-18"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Today comes another world-leading analysis empirically proven through technically challenging (and world-leading) experiments.<\/p>\n

Then it’s probably going to be a Friday binge drinking session in the thread later today, right? When can I start so I don’t reveal that I’m starting earlier than everyone else like last time. Yes, I have prepared some videos this week as well \u2013 dogs can get drunk and you will also see a highly professional Swedish sabotage group blowing up Russian equipment (in exercises).<\/p>\n

Not much to go through on the fronts except that RU has advanced a bit into Chasiv Yar and that the NS line near Darino up in Kursk seems to hold, that’s the first watercourse. Since Russian losses were very high, there is absolutely no calm settling over the fronts and the Russians are attacking everywhere and the list of where they have dropped FAB bombs is miles long. Expect further map changes.<\/p>\n

I also don’t understand Gregg’s “it’s 8km of open ground to Pokrovsk. bloodbath” \u2013 the disputed area on the outskirts of Moskovske is 1.3km and presumably RU is trying to enter that settlement first and it’s a forest belt straight in.<\/p>\n

I found it extremely interesting that we are in a situation where Zelensky hints at nuclear weapons and everyone gets all worked up \u2013 that means the situation is quite advanced as it reasonably should be? Shaking the cage like that is almost the last resort for Zelensky, right?<\/p>\n

Yesterday I saw that all Nordic countries and the Baltics unitedly support Ukraine’s death plan for Russia and emphasize that fighting inside Russia with their weapons is preferable.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pravda_eng\/status\/1846763068224950372?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Norway even welcomes the plan, not just accepts or supports it \u2013 Norway wants to bleed the Russians out completely.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1846914472876617965?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Scholz doesn’t want to be outdone so he goes big in the media and announces that he will not change his mind on any point. Important to be clear \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1846855649855963532?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Today we will also get a joint statement from the USA, UK, Germany, and France at some point when the US president visits them today. Apparently, there are more meetings for Zelensky ahead and then another at Ramstein in November, but we should get a clear indication of where this is heading today.<\/p>\n

I see a pressure building in the West now \u2013 the nuclear weapons doctrine we have lived under since WW2 is being challenged, half of the EU openly challenges the USA, and the big countries in the EU tread very carefully around the hot issues. The positive thing is, of course, that our leaders cannot take an easy middle way out of all this but must clearly choose a side. It is no one but Zelensky who has rigged it so that we have come this far, it is he himself who, poorly concealed, stands and threatens with nuclear weapons and willingly risks his future in the high-level circles but he also sees the weather vanes agonize which probably makes it worth it.<\/p>\n

I personally believe that Ukraine, which got rid of its nuclear weapons in the 90s and has many nuclear power plants, has been diligent for 2.5 years already and can certainly place a charge on a Neptun or that new missile before too long. This is not the first time in this war we have heard about nuclear weapons. Maybe Poland has already discussed buying from Ukraine because Poland has also announced that if things don’t get better than this, there will be nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

What is so incredibly liberating is that Zelensky now for the second time gives back in kind \u2013 first it was the Kursk People’s Republic and now he threatens Putin with nuclear weapons. That audacity and Putin must be as angry as a bee.
\nThe biggest question of all \u2013 does Putin have nuclear weapons and does he have a carrier that will not be shot down? He is, in any case, very quiet right now.<\/p>\n

I don’t know all the twists but surely it is the USA that has tried to control who would become nuclear powers and since the time I started taking an interest in the world, it has been made difficult for new aspirants to acquire nuclear weapons?
\nThen regarding American equipment, they have also done their utmost to ensure their equipment is purchased and manufacturers in Europe have been strongly supported by their respective countries to survive.
\nI can give countless examples of when Gripen lost sales to US manufacturers because they added a layer of security agreements and trade agreements as well.
\nThe world order we have today has in many ways been shaped by the USA because they reasonably felt it benefited them.
\nWe absolutely have European companies but the USA has conducted a foreign policy best described as using all the different branches it has in the tree to benefit its own companies.
\nThe signals from the USA are that they are starting to retract their claws but blaming everything on the EU is a bit too strong, I think.
\nMy guess is that the day the EU cuts ties completely with the USA we will hear the outcry across the Atlantic and then everything changes overnight because this is a market and a control the USA does not want to lose?
\nUkraine and Poland have already hinted at nuclear weapons and imagine if I..el finds a side gig and his new export?
\nIt doesn’t take many to be a deterrent and they apparently operate in groups and can comfortably be in place within five years, just in time for Russia to jump on Europe again according to the Germans.
\nAre the USA, France, UK, Germany, and Italy indifferent to this \u2013 then be clear about it so Sweden can join that purchase because I also want to be safe under the nuclear umbrella.
\nBecause if there is one thing that has worked in this war, it is the threat of nuclear weapons.
\nBy the way, it is not very far-fetched that Pax Americana has fallen when the agreement with Ukraine has not been followed, Russia is allowed to wage aggressive war without real consequences, Ukraine threatens with nuclear weapons, China and Russia take over Africa, and European arms industry switches to “made without USA”.<\/p>\n

Now I have gone and become religious so yesterday I sat with a case of Heineken and thought a bit about hope, will, personal goals\/development and all that but how it must feel in times of war.
\nSince I am an engineer, war is good for my career, for example. More specifically, when ports explode, my value increases because I am quite specialized and there are not many with my expertise around the world and the more ports that need to be built or repaired, the more in demand I am. But that was not relevant for hope and not a goal for me.
\nWe have all over time learned to function in our society \u2013 the closest most have come to the feeling of war is probably when they have been beaten up or had a big fight at work. Yes, I might get the same stress level when I run those two hundred meters to the pizzeria and they managed to close but it’s not quite the same even if it is an absolutely terrible experience.
\nWhen war comes, everything turns upside down for you when you leave your job as an architect, hug your children and partner, and show up at some regiment somewhere \u2013 the better you are at killing other people, the more valuable you are. What used to be murder is now what you put at the top of your CV, and the more people you kill, the more medals you get from your president in nice wooden boxes with glass lids.
\nFirst of all, you no longer have control over your own life \u2013 the state owns you now and if you try to solve the situation by quitting, it is life imprisonment\/long prison sentence or if you live in the wrong country even execution. Desertion in war is a serious crime and surely “cowardice” is punishable in Ukraine. When you see the Russian tank battalion storming towards you, you must stay in your trench until you get the order to retreat \u2013 otherwise it is punishable cowardice.
\nIf you want to meet the war with low-reactive response and make reasonable considerations before shooting the person on the other side of the sight, then you die \u2013 Darwinism and immediate selection are relentless so accept your situation and kill first or be Darwinized.
\nYou are completely dependent on being accepted by your group and you do that by risking your life and people around you die in the worst ways every day, that testicle shot your comrade took is something you have nightmares about. If you try to increase your survival chances, you can only do it at the expense of someone else in the group and that is not well received in your congregation so the next suicide mission will then be yours.
\nIf you happen to be in the wrong place, the probability is very high that you won’t survive and it may have been the calmest place in the war before the enemy decided to attack exactly where you are lying sipping a Coca-Cola and feeling pretty good \u2013 chance is a strong factor you cannot influence at all.
\nYou have reached the point where you no longer take chances after a couple of near-death experiences and when you jumped out from behind a corner and shot first, it turned out that the person who died in front of you was a twelve-year-old civilian boy who only had his father’s crutches in his hand, and that the boy was the only living relative of the severely disabled father who sits on a broken bench next to him and doesn’t know what to do anymore.
\nIn the West, we have been able to wage war “civilized” in the sense that we have poured training over our candidates for military service, had clear laws of war and then had an organization with support that was absolutely enormous. The chance of survival high, risk of committing abuses lower, and upon return a support organization (although there are probably some complaints).
\nWhen you have now become a highly valued soldier by killing as many other people as possible, you have about a dozen episodes where your actions either led to your comrade’s painful testicle shot or completely innocent civilians died because of your direct wrong decisions, and you have been like this for 3 years so it has become your everyday life and you have only seen the children and your partner a few weeks in total.
\nThen the war suddenly ends and your work experience is no longer worth anything \u2013 now that work experience is a crime if you would get the idea to continue your career.
\nWhat happens now?
\nNow you will try to return to a normal life with your children and partner when the country is ruined, no one has any money and there are no jobs. And above all, everything you have learned is no longer worth anything.
\nYou have to try to manage your acute PTSD as best you can and your wife and children also have PTSD \u2013 you are an unemployed family in a half-bombed house with PTSD who cannot call anyone for help, and in all the other half-bombed houses in your little village there are families with family PTSD.
\nThe West has an astronomically large commitment ahead when this war is over that it is almost hard to comprehend. I believe we read earlier that 80% of Ukrainian children had PTSD symptoms?
\nIf everything is not done right, this unemployed soldier can easily fall into addiction or take a job where his work experience is still highly valued \u2013 the mafia in the EU.
\nOne idea we have aired a few times is that the EU should directly employ all soldiers as instructors or standing units and in this way they can be phased out over time in a planned way and then get a decent veteran pension.
\n1,450,000 unemployed broke soldiers is a risk on par with a nuclear bomb gone astray after this war so the EU would probably do best to have a good plan.
\nAnd above all, we have a debt of gratitude to repay and part of that is to give those who have been willing to die for us dignified care and a future.<\/p>\n

Quite interesting that the Russian bastards tried to mail-bomb a DHL plane in the air but failed \u2013 that gives you an understanding of the level of sabotage they are carrying out in the EU right now.
\nI think blowing up a larger Boeing is equivalent to an act of war and that Article 5 should therefore be applicable, but then of course there is the detail that NATO must also consider it so.<\/p>\n

The Economist did the job for the EU and has compiled known sabotage
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/theeconomist\/status\/1846856648586940671?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Zelensky almost calls R\u00f6pcke a Russian disinformant.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1846951662994284998?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The Russian influence operation in Germany is apparently something extraordinary
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/alexandravonnah\/status\/1846272048143978710?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

NATO immediately wanted to go out and oppose Ukraine\u2019s claim that the North Koreans perhaps have not yet fought in Ukraine.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ralee85\/status\/1846640997977252045?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

But they are lucky because they only need to wait until November 1 before they have proof of it and have a chance to act on that information.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3l6rkya4t6c2q<\/a><\/p>\n

Almost makes you suspect that Putin is pushing for this before the US election?<\/p>\n

And here is possibly a video of the North Koreans
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/banderafella\/status\/1847216433551274393?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Someone has dug into Navalny\u2019s organization and just like with SIDA it is a black hole.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/daractenus\/status\/1846823656153809291?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

In..el is purging hard among the terrorist leaders and here Sinwar is throwing wooden pieces at drones. He is not captured and not dead so he should be able to be posted?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/magnusranstorp\/status\/1847015438628409619?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

A possibly worse job than a Russian Storm Z soldier is to be a terrorist leader in G..a or Lebanon, I can\u2019t quite decide who has the shortest lifespan but continue with world-leading experiments on the matter.<\/p>\n

UNRWA today has a black mourning band in its profile picture, I don\u2019t know if it was for Sinwar or his bodyguard who was employed by UNRWA.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/unrwa\/status\/1846949851373723713?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And UNIFIL, which through resolution 1701 is supposed to keep southern Lebanon demilitarized, loudly protests that In..el is fighting Hezb..ah targets located within 100m of UNIFIL\u2019s bases.
\nIt is only in this war that I have understood how much of our funds have not gone to what they were intended for \u2013 can\u2019t we just keep the money instead?<\/p>\n

According to South Korea, I wasn\u2019t far from the truth the other day when we discussed North Korea sending SOF to Ukraine \ud83d\ude01
\nLiveuamap
\n\u201cNorth Korea is sending 12,000 troops, including special forces, to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. According to the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS), North Korea has decided to send four brigades to Ukraine and has begun deployment\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

If Ukraine is about to be overrun and the West is just watching \u2013 <\/p>\n

-A first smuggled nuclear weapon levels St Petersburg. Vladek would have sat for half a year waiting for the WhatsApp message and the bomb was armed in a DHL courier van.<\/p>\n

-Zelensky calls Putin \u2013 you have today to start pulling your forces out of Ukraine or another bomb will go off, I won\u2019t say where but it could be some radioactive waste in the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n

-Nothing happens and a nuclear weapon explodes in the middle of Moscow.<\/p>\n

-Zelensky \u2013 hey Vladimir, you didn\u2019t send anything off, did you?
\nWe have three more in your three largest cities you still have \u2013 are you going to give that order now or do you want to wait a bit longer?<\/p>\n

-Current: BREAKING, all Russian forces are retreating from Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Scholz is dangerously close to ending up in the same category as Orban for me, it\u2019s exactly the same kind of statements from him.
\nWhat Germany sends he cannot control but he decides what he shall say.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1847227147515019642?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:07 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Appreciated your description of life as a soldier. It will require enormous support to counteract tragedies after the war. If it also ends with a loss, where all sacrifices were in vain, there is a great risk that all of Ukraine will fall into depression. The price for not helping Ukraine could be enormous, not only for them but for all of Europe.<\/p>\n

Gregg and Pokrovsk depend on how you choose to see it. Even if the Russians are closer than 8km, it is still a lot of open ground and Moskovske is probably not yet taken by the Russians. But of course, that is nothing to hang on to. Time will tell how it goes.<\/p>\n

Even if the Russians are pressing like hornets, the lottery numbers show that Ukraine does not seem to have any problems defending itself. However, if the loss figures suddenly start to drop sharply while AFU reports continued high intensity from the Russians, it is probably time to get worried.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes exactly \u2013 escalation cannot be avoided when the entire battle plan initiated by the opponent is escalation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

November 5 and \u201csomeone\u201d should feel compelled to start making the tough decisions then.
\nYear-end around December 15, possibly some of the toughest politicians go back to work the week after.<\/p>\n

So a little over a month to save the world or alternatively to spend Christmas with family and hope it looks brighter in January.<\/p>\n

Every company gets nothing done in December so it\u2019s not entirely impossible that the year ends without anything happening.<\/p>\n

Then it will be New Year and ski trip with the family and as a decision-maker you are probably back at work sometime mid-January, and then you have to catch up on everything, go through the inbox and all that.<\/p>\n

Oh yes, new president in the USA to relate to as well.<\/p>\n

My real question is whether anyone has done a risk analysis on whether Ukraine will have any terrain left east of the Dnieper when the first Teams meeting is held sometime in early February?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Do you know what North Koreans on November 1 means?<\/p>\n

Yes, that RU is preparing to significantly increase the pace of offensive operations \u2013 it\u2019s not just North Koreans standing in the rear preparing to run across the fields.<\/p>\n

At the southern front they have not started yet and it is Gregg who has pointed out that they will increase the pace at Pokrovsk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, that description of life as a soldier is based on personal experiences from a mountain week with the Bible group \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

They are playing a bit with words here \u2013 the North Koreans are undergoing training, the bases are identified, UA has already drone-striked some group of officers in Luhansk and many escapees up by the northern border.<\/p>\n

Aren\u2019t dead North Korean officers in Luhansk proof that they are participating in the war?<\/p>\n

Or do they have to shoot Ukrainian soldiers for NATO to count it as participation?<\/p>\n

Does NATO have better intelligence than Ukraine and South Korea?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
15:31 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

A miracle that you survived, how did you handle the PTSD afterwards?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Hello thread<\/p>\n

What has disappeared from Lavrov’s list of demands \ud83d\ude01<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1847271466301088194?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Oh, have we reached Friday drinking then?
\n(that is, Friday cozy time but with Star beer and port wine instead of chips, dip and pick-and-mix sweets).<\/p>\n

Wasn’t quite sure when it was time to reveal that I was on my fifth beer but now it must be safe ground?<\/p>\n

Even dogs drink alcohol
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/bestfightclip\/status\/1846315917090656366?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:56 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

A bit early for Friday drinking, it takes a few hours to build up to that for those of us who haven\u2019t started early.\ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n

Yes, of course they do, hence the term drunk dogs!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

NK soldiers in Russian uniforms<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/bayraktar_1love\/status\/1847320427435106680?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Reaction to beer cooler<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/alphafox78\/status\/1846597473638240538?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Here are Timon and Pumbaa’s role models<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1846621883824820714?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

There was a big party here until around 20:30 it seems, then I apparently fell asleep \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

This year’s Christmas gift
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/trendingmemess\/status\/1210037124243894273<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:46 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

That was a deep clue to how you function. \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It will be interesting to see the combat readiness of the North Koreans.
\nI am of the opinion that we should not underestimate the African mercenaries as they have combat experience and are quite resilient to harsh conditions, and have been trained by Wagner.<\/p>\n

As for the North Koreans, they should at least be able to live on very little food and be completely soaked in subzero temperatures if you are to believe the conditions in that country?
\nIf they also have some absolute loyalty to the leader so there is never a retreat, it probably isn’t very fun to have them against you, I guess.<\/p>\n

It’s easy to laugh when you are not the platoon in the way of their brigade attacks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:07 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

So they have learned to fight in snow (soaking wet subzero temperatures)?
\nYes, then they are probably not to be messed with, tough like the Finns during the Winter War.<\/p>\n

Could definitely be war-deciding.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Friday cozy time got 48 comments but Friday drinking significantly more even though I passed out at 20:30 from too many Star beers and an intense week with too many beers throughout the week.<\/p>\n

The conclusion can only be that the Swedish people prefer Friday drinking and that I am right on time and that we set trends for Sweden.<\/p>\n

Will try to establish a new world-leading clothing style now too \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I also have a loose theory that if you don\u2019t start at two in the afternoon, you stay awake longer in the evening, if possible I will empirically test that theory sometime by starting at quarter past two instead.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, South Korea thought just like the thread that it will only be 12,000 girlfriends for the Russians so they called a crisis meeting in the government.<\/p>\n

And Ukraine is also so amused by the North Korean fake soldiers that they didn\u2019t call it another country joining the war and that they need help at all.<\/p>\n

I do not want to in any way go against the thread\u2019s conclusion that it is 12,000 girlfriends who will soon arrive at the fronts but it doesn\u2019t quite align with what Ukraine or South Korea say \u2013 it may be that the thread\u2019s information about the actual situation hasn\u2019t reached them yet.<\/p>\n

However, it fits well into the West\u2019s attempts at relativization so far but that is only because the West wants to avoid having to escalate themselves so then they call everything non-escalation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Convinced that your research is onto something. Could revolutionize the world, or well, at least Friday drinking and when it starts.<\/p>\n

Remember a Christmas party once that a supplier organized, where a few of us were a couple of hours late due to a meeting in the capital that ran overtime and then a delayed train. It totally got out of hand.
\nBut it applied to everyone not just us with late arrival but maybe it affected everyone at the whole party?<\/p>\n

You should deepen your research, would be interesting to get answers!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
10:41 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

The West(eros) should instead realize that “The winter is coming” and as soon as possible build and man an ice wall along Russia\u2019s borders before the horde arrives!\u270a\ufe0f<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:31 \u2013 Johan No.1 Today comes another world-leading analysis empirically proven through technically challenging (and world-leading) experiments. 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