{"id":9588,"date":"2024-10-22T12:09:36","date_gmt":"2024-10-22T10:09:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-10-22-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T10:38:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:38:14","slug":"2024-10-22-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-10-22-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-10-22"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Nihao \ud83d\ude4f (learning Chinese to fit into the new upcoming world order). Gambe \ud83c\udf7a
\nTomorrow there will also be a fun post about how we shall build up our defense forces and then on Friday the legendary Friday drinking session \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Nothing directly alarming on the fronts other than that RU sources believe they have taken Zoryane, which is north of the watercourse and probably means that the bulge will be destabilized. This is at Ostrivske.<\/p>\n

The 46th Airmobile holding Kurakhove constantly reports mechanical failures against them, and if Kurakhove falls, the area south of it becomes at risk. The problem is that it is a long strip of buildings, which is easier for RU to advance through than over open fields with a 3km shooting range.<\/p>\n

This constant trickle of skirmish groups pressing forward is a bit like the early computer game Lemmings, and the defense is worn down over time when combined with the FAB bombs. My very personal opinion here is that the FAB bombs enable this, and if they are swept away, it will go significantly worse for RU.
\nFAB has somewhat faded into the background but now October 2024 is over and RU continues to drop 4000 per month.<\/p>\n

Selydove is held by the 15th NG and so far they have held out even though there is movement on the flanks.<\/p>\n

I am also backing off a bit on being upset about the loans the West is now giving \u2013 it seems that the interest on Russian frozen funds will pay the interest on the loans, so nothing that burdens Ukraine. That is okay if it is also paired with RU then having to bear the full cost of these loans as part of their war reparations and that there is no sale of infrastructure in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Regarding our deepened defense cooperation with Hungary \u2013 you know they have Gripen, right, and are going to buy a couple more. Then Slovakia has ordered 152 CV90s.
\nIf you look at Hungary and Slovakia, they are ordering all sorts of things right now. When Hungary blocked NATO membership, the US canceled a major contract with them \u2013 not sure if it was resumed.<\/p>\n

Turkey is likewise buying a lot of Western weapons right now.<\/p>\n

Yes, the world is rearming, but it is obvious that these countries are buying capabilities on the market that Ukraine or the West should not get.<\/p>\n

If you take a look at BRIICS in general, Egypt is supposed to join and they are big buyers of Western weapons. UAE is also supposed to join BRIICS and they also have huge contracts underway with the US.<\/p>\n

In terms of security risks, at least I think prioritizing the rearmament of BRIICS countries because they ordered earlier than all other Western countries is almost suicidal, but then again I\u2019m just sitting in my parents\u2019 basement playing Rise of Nations.<\/p>\n

We also know that since 2022 Ukraine has tried to buy both surplus and new equipment on the open market and has been repeatedly refused.<\/p>\n

History simply repeats itself \u2013 I\u2019m seriously considering doing like Dengamle here, model building or Star Wars memorabilia is a healthier hobby than unraveling the lead-up to our time\u2019s global conflict. The link below is interesting if you want to explore how history repeats itself.
\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Business_collaboration_with_Nazi_Germany<\/a><\/p>\n

I will try with another world-leading educational explanation \u2013 see this a bit like a schoolyard where two big bullies are beating up a small frail girl (or other gender identity, everyone is included!) who is shy and very peaceful.<\/p>\n

As a student in that school, you have a few different options,
\n-it\u2019s not my problem, I\u2019m not in her class.
\n-others can help, her friends for example.
\n-I told the teacher.
\n-I went up to the bullies and told them I absolutely do not accept this, not at all.
\n-I went up to the bullies and slapped them and informed them that if they touch the girl again, or anyone else for that matter, there will be consequences.<\/p>\n

What is simple right \u2013 wrong in school is apparently more than a little difficult on the geopolitical playing field.
\nAnd to be completely honest, not many manage the last option but choose one of the others instead and then justify it by saying they have done their part, and look the other way the next day when the girl is on the ground being kicked.<\/p>\n

This war is almost frighteningly simple \u2013
\nUkraine stands between us and a global conflict which means that if Russia can turn this into any kind of win, we in this thread will have to stand at some mob storage in cold drizzle some November ahead and fiddle with an over-greased AK4.
\nTherefore, self-preservation should kick in and Western leaders do what is right. And what is right is to ensure that Ukraine wins the war as quickly as possible.<\/p>\n

Russia was on the way to losing this war against a country that has just enough to keep its head above water for 2.5 years. Russia was about to succeed with something the West has actively tried to prevent, losing \u2013 an achievement in itself actually.
\nBut everything unfortunately has a limit \u2013 RU has gotten organized and found a way of warfare that works and is advancing on all fronts \u2013 everywhere. Slowing support for the second time in the war has also had results \u2013 Ukraine does not have enough equipment and ammunition.
\nWe all know that FAB bomb droppers are protected and until they are knocked out nothing changes \u2013 RU drops heavy bombs on 4000 targets per month and that decimates the Ukrainian defense in the most effective way possible.
\nThen I also want to highlight that this thread has followed this war since 2022 and can form its own (correct) opinion so defending the West\u2019s actions because it must be right \u201cbecause they know better\u201d is just a lack of analytical ability.<\/p>\n

We see how the West is financing weapon purchases to half of BRIICS right now \u2013 what is smart about that when the organization is led by China and Russia and has an explicit anti-West agenda \ud83d\ude00
\nYes, the US financed ISIS\u2019s \u201crise to power\u201d back in the day by supporting \u201cmoderate rebel groups\u201d who thanked them for the weapons and then formed ISIS. Most recently, the US left 5 billion USD in equipment to the Taliban.
\nBut this is a bit different, this is BRIICS against us.<\/p>\n

The only thing the US does not seem willing to fully resource is Ukraine and it is surprising that the entire West sells weapons to BRIICS and less to Ukraine but that is evidently the case. David D has a long list of all surplus equipment the US has actively blocked. Especially those 4.5 million DIPCM 155mm shells.<\/p>\n

France has dedicated its entire export to Ukraine according to its own statement and Germany at least has direct contracts with Ukraine on IFVs but I don\u2019t know if they get priority or not.<\/p>\n

The order book for CV90 was about 10 years now but if you google around a bit they have scaled up and decentralized to increase production. But having said that, Slovakia probably placed a pretty effective block on CV90s that could reasonably be sent to Ukraine through their order?<\/p>\n

Woodward’s book
\nHere Loyd Austin admits that there are limitations due to the Russian nuclear threat. Another admission that supports what we have seen with, for example, VDV 2022.
\nhttps:\/\/www.dailykos.com\/stories\/2024\/10\/17\/2277611\/-Woodward-s-War-Offers-Insight-Into-US-Ukraine-Policy<\/a><\/p>\n

South Korea is genuinely worried, partly because North Korea is gaining combat experience and will receive training from Russia, which has combat experience in 2024 \u2013 invaluable.
\nAlso, North Korea has recently been inspecting Russian nuclear weapons and nuclear carriers.
\nSouth Korea has also hinted that they might need nuclear weapons themselves.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ianellisjones\/status\/1847795446582038823?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

In terms of layers of the onion, South Korea together with Taiwan, Finland, and the Baltics are the ones who will be hit after Ukraine if the West continues with a low-reactivity approach, so it’s understandable that they are starting to get worried.
\nI would argue that I..el is already involved, so they were also the first layer of the onion.<\/p>\n

I know this is OT but hysterically funny. AI is almost a bit worrying \ud83d\ude32
\nSaved it for the Friday drinking session but couldn’t resist.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/still_boneless\/status\/1848463254726553876?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Tim Walz p@dofilhistoria can apparently be linked to Russian origin \u2013 are we really surprised that almost everything is Russian psyops.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/daithaigilbert\/status\/1848441852422479972?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then “cristians vote Trump” has exploded and I still hold the opinion that it is our leaders in the West who create the openings because they are not street-smart enough. Everyone should learn from Finland, which has learned the importance of weighing its words carefully throughout the Cold War. Because this election in the USA is important for the whole world.<\/p>\n

Seems like Poland has been kept out in recent weeks.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1848476267630498157?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

UN’s Guterrez is attending the BRIICS meeting in Russia
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1848383771877220725?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Don’t forget Africa is pleading all the time but no one hears them.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/philipobaji\/status\/1848462450246750280?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

We have a project manager here who micromanages at a surprising level and has created an administration that is 80% unnecessary.
\nWhen he goes on vacation, I usually ask if the guys need help; otherwise, they have to manage on their own, and then I go around and chat a bit, which is to fish for whether they have things under control.
\nAnd reduce the administration by 80%.
\nThen he comes back and starts his 1984 again \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I also believe in that \u2013 everyone knows their task and knows where the walls of the square are, and if they go outside it, they must seek permission; otherwise, they have to manage on their own \u2013 that’s smart leadership.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Exactly \u2013 Ukraine should get their factories 100m from the border on the Polish side but owned by UA.
\nRU often targets this small number of missiles they fire per day directly at the war industry.<\/p>\n

Interesting about the chromium and that it is India, Kazakhstan, and Brazil for the West getting an ingredient for our propellants for all ammunition exclusively from China.<\/p>\n

Then China and Russia together have started taking over more and more countries in Africa, and in terms of natural resources, that area is quite important.<\/p>\n

Feels like the West lacks a strategy to secure raw materials for the arms industry, and if BRIICS decides to stop all exports to the West, things could get lively?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:57 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Can’t really do anything but agree with most of it, except for giving up and starting to collect stamps or something similar, of course, I refuse that!<\/p>\n

Even though a lot of support and money has come recently, at least double that is needed, if not more, and of course, the restrictions for long-distance need to be removed.<\/p>\n

Most worried about November 5th, where things look a bit bleak right now, it could be the final blow. We in Europe have not stepped up as we should, and if the USA disappears, who knows what will happen, or maybe that’s when people realize it’s time to take this seriously.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Star Wars memorabilia and building models, that was it \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I think it will be the opposite \u2013 that will force Europe to break free and grow up.
\nOtherwise, you will also start building models, I promise you, because then it’s over \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:12 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Thought stamps are more manageable for those who want to bury their heads in the sand and give up, Star Wars is just too violent! I myself am practicing flying drones (but only virtually, though with a real controller).<\/p>\n

Yes, that was kind of what I meant with the last line, that it might lead to a wake-up call.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

Ok, will check out stamps \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Wrong thread I know but why is Forsmark 2 “downregulated”?
\nThe reason given is “power balance reasons”.<\/p>\n

Considering soaring electricity prices and that we now have a bit of luck with lower electricity prices, at least I am curious about what is going on here.<\/p>\n

We used to have dirt-cheap prices before 6 reactors were shut down, and I have ALWAYS been told that you don’t just turn nuclear power plants on\/off.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:58 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Sounds like you are answering your own question?
\nThe wind power is probably delivering enough right now that the easiest way to get a good balance is to downregulate nuclear power.
\nDownregulating is not quite the same as turning off and on.<\/p>\n

But surely there is some expert who can answer that.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Guterrez went to BRICS in Russia but declined the peace summit<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/banderafella\/status\/1848756986751684832?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ping @NATO<\/p>\n

also North Korean pilots<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1848731851084472379?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:17 \u2013 Johan No.1 Nihao \ud83d\ude4f (learning Chinese to fit into the new upcoming world order). Gambe \ud83c\udf7a Tomorrow there […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2024-10-22 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-10-22-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2024-10-22 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"13:17 \u2013 Johan No.1 Nihao \ud83d\ude4f (learning Chinese to fit into the new upcoming world order). 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