{"id":9596,"date":"2024-10-26T09:45:33","date_gmt":"2024-10-26T07:45:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-10-26-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T10:40:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:40:11","slug":"2024-10-26-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-10-26-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-10-26"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:43<\/h2>\n

I understand that everyone is recovering from the world-leading and now legendary Friday drinking session at half speed. It really takes its toll (whether man, woman, or other identity) to be able to carry out this mythical sitting.<\/p>\n

Grom 2 reaches all the way to the Kremlin \ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nijhuisclaretta\/status\/1849607826861081075?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

French Mirage early 2025.
\nThen I think it is now proven beyond all reason that Ukraine can indeed handle two aircraft simultaneously and that the official reason given to slow down Gripen from our government was realpolitical lies.
\nThat’s fine, but I think several countries have spoken out about the USA, so why can’t we do the same and admit that the USA waved the contract and that it is USA-made components in Gripen so they knew?
\nMy guess is that when Sweden announced that Gripen could be used against targets in Russia, the USA put a stop to it. The chain of events after that fits that explanation.
\nOur government has not acted wrongly at all, the USA has taken liberties far beyond what is acceptable but they can do more or less as they please (still).
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1849093688284049445?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The fronts
\nThere are Twitter rumors about the Kupiansk pocket, or whatever it is called, and that there is heavy pressure on it. Likely since it is prioritized to collapse it before UA manages to stabilize the situation \u2013 nothing reflected on the maps yet though.<\/p>\n

Quietly, RU is overrunning Bohoyavlenka which would be the “main defensive line” after Vuhledar. And besides, RU was supposed to take a long break and then they would never get across the fields. This suggests that the “main defensive line” could not be manned sufficiently and that everyone was wrong as usual.<\/p>\n

The amount of RU losses and where things are moving poorly match Greggs’ super positive posts and low point in the mud season but maybe that hasn’t fully kicked in yet?<\/p>\n

Seledove and Kurakhivka are probably just a delaying battle away from being abandoned.<\/p>\n

At Kursk it is calm itself which in itself should be worrying as the North Koreans apparently landed there first.
\nLosses of 18,000 in the area have been suggested and there would be 50,000 \u2013 70,000 in the area and now it is topped up with North Koreans.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1849774740505870636?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If you have followed the North Koreans you know that there are 12,000 of them, of which at least 1,500 are their SOF and the rest from the 11th Army which is a prioritized unit.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/hoanssolo\/status\/1849325597773770769?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

They have more training than the average Russian but lack combat experience (I guess) and the training at the bases has presumably aimed to transfer that experience one can guess.<\/p>\n

There are also 500 officers and if you remember the undersigned I assumed at least +30,000 and did not dare to guess a ceiling.
\nNow rumors are starting to come that this was only the vanguard.
\nI believe Putin has placed an order for at least 30,000 because anything less makes no difference. Surely he would want well over 100,000 but the question is what he has been able to pay for.<\/p>\n

We also constantly get videos from the training bases, you know the ones UA is not allowed to fight at, where contract soldiers from Asia and Africa are trained and then videos of fairly well-equipped Russians in training.
\nI do not think RU is heading towards an acute personnel shortage here at all but that is my personal opinion.<\/p>\n

North Korea has ammunition in barns for three months of warfare according to South Korea. That means THEY ALSO know that NO ONE will attack them so they send everything to Russia.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/stratcomcentre\/status\/1849448905869521041?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We can already state that North Korea is an active combatant in this war and that Ukraine is now fighting against North Korea and Russia in Ukraine with Iran’s and China’s active support.<\/p>\n

I understand that it must be presidential elections and Christmas break but I maintain that Ukraine is under heavy pressure at the fronts and that everything else is wishful thinking. <\/p>\n

Vuhledar may look insignificant on the maps but in 2023 RU did not even get within shooting range of the town before they were shot away and they threw some dozen brigades over the area.<\/p>\n

Now they have overrun Vuhledar and the next defensive line in about a month and UA units in the area are running on fumes.<\/p>\n

At the Southern front UA expects an offensive and RU is conducting reconnaissance and positional battles now.
\nIf it starts, it will be against a thin line of home guard with some intervention units in battalion size from the maneuver brigades behind.<\/p>\n

Then we have the drained reservoir and the city of Zaporizia which is one of the supply routes and then Dnipro and Pavlograd.<\/p>\n

UA sent their better units to Kursk and then the 3rd, 12th, 1st and a few more are fire brigade together with GUR units right now.<\/p>\n

Around Dnepr and in the western part of the southern front RU has a not insignificant number of VDV and some spetsnaz, and a total of 200,000 in the area. At these front sections RU has not attacked for a long time which means the units have rested and presumably re-equipped?<\/p>\n

Thus, I think it is clear that the West does not see this as we do at all, what the motives might be are guesses \u2013 one is that they believe the worst that can happen is negotiations and another is RU subversive activity.
\nI think both assumptions are supported by what we see.<\/p>\n

My worst-case scenario is that the defense collapses now before Christmas so the Western decision chain is paralyzed and that the terrain east of Dnepr goes up in smoke in a first instance where the area Zaporizia \u2013 Dnipro \u2013 Pavlograd is lost first.<\/p>\n

After that I think that for example Poland would simply have gone in and taken up defense along the Dnepr because somewhere there it starts to burn \u2013 but that is also a bit hoping for help from God or so and nothing guaranteed in any way. Poland may very well consider that they need their national defense.<\/p>\n

What could also happen is that Putin manages to get his land bridge over to Transnistria now that the Dnepr reservoir is drained.<\/p>\n

Then it starts \u2013 the Balkans destabilize and country after country falls just as they tried in Moldova.
\nThen Ukraine destabilizes and with constant sabotage and subversive activity they will never get going so Russia’s position for Round 2 is significantly stronger.
\nAt the same time as the rest of the EU struggles with a new unstoppable mafia and a new migration wave from Africa that Wagner et al. are starting up.<\/p>\n

What is our leaders in the EU worst-case scenario really, would be nice to know.
\nNow Ukraine has prevented the above from landing on the West like a ton of bricks for 2.5 years but Putin’s plan is exactly the same as it was in 2022 only it has been severely delayed and we know EXACTLY what it is because he himself has said it several times.<\/p>\n

Moldova barely managed to avoid falling in the first round, we will see what happens in the second round.
\nRomania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Slovenia, Albania, Kosovo, and North Macedonia are all at risk of drowning in subversive activities. Then the mafia will also enter the EU’s soft underbelly from there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:58<\/h3>\n

For me, it is not a before or after Trump.
\nThis has been going on for 2.5 years for those of us who have followed the war.<\/p>\n

It is likely that Trump will be yet another negative factor, but if the EU had gotten its act together earlier, it might not have done the damage it perhaps does now if one gets ahead of events a bit.<\/p>\n

Then you should never miss a good crisis, so when history is written, everyone involved will have been shining gods who were just on the verge of winning the war for Ukraine and then Trump came and ruined everything so 100% is his fault.
\nThose of us who have followed all the twists in the thread know how it really is.<\/p>\n

I’m starting to lean towards Scholz being compromised actually, I can no longer relativize his statements.
\nAlternatively, he is a prisoner of his party which is compromised.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:11<\/h3>\n

Yes, it is indeed \ud83d\ude00
\nIt has been stated too many times not to be.<\/p>\n

1. Then they let themselves be herded half-asleep into thinking that Putin has no intention of negotiating as long as he is advancing.
\nHe can consider negotiations if he gets the terrain he would otherwise conquer by force but not less than that.
\nAnd then they overlook the risk that Putin collapses the fronts and advances strongly.<\/p>\n

Then I would bet a month’s salary that they will stand there long-faced and say \u201cbut Putin had promised us to negotiate as long as we managed to persuade Ukraine to do so\u201d \u2013 guaranteed 100%.<\/p>\n

2. I know there are divided opinions but I am of the view that the West still sponsors too much of Russia\u2019s warfare (dirty oil is sold in the EU, via India or the gas) and we still supply him with all the components he needs so it will not be able to collapse. The will simply is not there (yet).<\/p>\n

3. China can very well support Russia if it means a weakened West. North Korea has given zero consequences which opens up for more support.<\/p>\n

4. BRICS was a solid gathering from 30 countries and 14 new ones want to join BRICS. The opposing side is starting to rally around their banners now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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