{"id":9631,"date":"2024-11-03T11:25:32","date_gmt":"2024-11-03T10:25:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-11-03-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T10:43:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T08:43:06","slug":"2024-11-03-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-11-03-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-11-03"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Here you have it clearly written why there is criticism of the leaders in the West and not Putin, Xi, Trump, and Kim Yong Un \u2013 it is the silence from the friends that is the great betrayal, the enemies are already known and you kill them instead.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/Igor_from_Kyiv_\/status\/1852430230549606808<\/a><\/p>\n

I am of the opinion that Ukraine believed in the West’s values and that they would be admitted into the Western sphere as long as they proved themselves worthy.
\nNow they have proven themselves worthy 10 times over but we have betrayed them and they are now in the process of beginning to feel that we do not deserve them \u2013 that is what you see with all the pro-Ukrainian accounts we have followed throughout the war, they have started to come to this realization.<\/p>\n

Personally, I am ashamed on behalf of the West here because we so clearly show that our values are just nice words and that we are the pals who betray, but not seeing the potential in a country like Ukraine is actually very strange. They want to get closer to the EU, they have a defense force among the best in the world, they have natural resources, production capacity and will, and they were extremely pro-Western \u2013 a new Baltic or Poland, simply put.<\/p>\n

I have said throughout the whole war that if Ukraine loses, the EU will get a new unstoppable mafia.
\nI develop that reasoning \u2013 if this goes against a UA loss or an unfavorable peace, then GUR, SOF, elite units and others will seek the future they believe they deserve anyway.
\nThey take from this war that nothing ever has consequences in the West and that we are terrified of everything.
\nSo they will move into the EU as an organization and create the future we tricked them out of with the work experience they have, and good luck trying to stop that when we can do nothing about RU subversive activities \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

What Ukraine has run into is some old Cold War doctrine that the USA holds on to \u2013 here you have proof that throughout the whole war it has been the USA’s stated intention that things should not go too well for Ukraine, because you can translate Sullivan’s words into what we have seen in action over 2.5 years and it fits well.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1852903160672596246?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/rail_splitter1\/status\/1852316583852704077?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

A bit like when you think you will get a promotion but the colleague with lower qualifications than you is an old schoolmate of the boss and slips past, there is something hidden that you don’t know about lurking beneath the surface and controlling the actions. Some genius in the thread guessed that there is a level above the Security Council tasked with maintaining the status quo between the big dragons.<\/p>\n

I have also pointed out for a while now that the intensity of the RU offensive is enormous when the thread rejoices at the loss figures and now Sirsky says the same thing. High losses also mean high intensity, right.
\nhttps:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/ukraine-facing-one-of-russias-most-powerful-offensives-since-start-of-all-out-war-syrskyi-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n

The Russian offensive is far from peaked and in my opinion we will see further offensives further west on the southern front, near Pokrovsk and an attack vector down from Bryansk.<\/p>\n

Do you know what else has happened, RU has broken through the southern front and can turn west and roll up that line. That was what we hoped would happen in 2023 when we wrote about the Surovikin line, aka the Maginot line.<\/p>\n

North Korea’s 11th Army corps seems to be stationed up in Kursk, why move an entire staff for an army corps if you send a few thousand, everyone wonders \u2013 quite predictable that we now see the vanguard, right.<\/p>\n

It might be that RU uses the North Koreans to retake Kursk and then as border protection along the northern front. Then they are in Russia and the West has an excuse not to intervene because they are not fighting in Ukraine \ud83d\ude01
\nThink a little about what you are hearing right now and it could fit into the bigger picture, the USA keeps saying that the red line is if the North Koreans are INSIDE Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Then they run their SOF inside Ukraine disguised as Buryats and the West turns a blind eye to that.<\/p>\n

This would free up about fifty (50) RU brigades or so that can fight down in Ukraine instead or open up a new attack vector from, for example, Bryansk.<\/p>\n

(exactly what Ukraine would need but the West feels it would escalate \ud83d\ude10, you also remember my discussion when the Chinese SOF company was in Belarus that I thought the Chinese would take over border control of the northern front but it became the North Koreans instead, China solved it that way).<\/p>\n

Then it becomes harder for UA with incursions along the northern front because then you attack North Korea inside Russia and China will protest loudly \u2013 the northern front is probably about to be closed now \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Then the terrain east of the Oskil river is the highest priority for RU because it is an excellent anchor on their northern flank if they can capture that terrain. There they will push in offensive units for further offensive as soon as they can.<\/p>\n

First priority is of course Kursk, KriegsForscher is VERY credible and according to him all VDV regiments around Kursk have received reinforcements with North Koreans. This is interesting because they treat the North Koreans significantly better than Storm Z or early LPR and DPR units seem to be.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/osintua\/status\/1852750496580186459?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Twitter rumors as said, may already be disproven perhaps but I throw them into my little private influence operation \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/albafella1\/status\/1852685688409628892?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1852767274303905948?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This is not even a rumor but if I were Putin I would definitely be considering such a solution \u2013 if the West does nothing then you can probably buy a few Syrian and Iranian brigades, right?
\nGet 50,000 more.
\n\u201ccompletely unreasonable, PROOOF\u201d screams the thread but aren’t the North Koreans already there?
\nMy point is that Putin will not run out of soldier material so we can stop hoping for that \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/toriadus\/status\/1852482868087300149?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Another country we don’t really associate as a state participating in the war is Chechnya but they are supposed to send 84,000 as rifle brigades to Ukraine according to Kadyrov
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1852630747896545760<\/a><\/p>\n

Somewhere around here everyone quickly realizes that Putin already has his next 300,000 on paper, NK, Africans, Syria, Iran, Chechnya and 30,000\/month in voluntary recruitment.<\/p>\n

Putin could also equip the North Koreans with AK-12s we learned, so he is not lacking weapons either.<\/p>\n

What does the thread think we are heading towards, RU has been able to mobilize for the next offensive by pulling volunteers and buying soldiers from other countries so the war does not have to affect Muscovite Russia.
\nThey obviously still have weapons if they give the North Koreans AK-12s and we have seen transport trains with T90 M recently so they obviously still have some splinter protection and armor as well as the capacity to drop 4000 FAB bombs\/month. <\/p>\n

The artillery has UA cracked the back of but RU replaced it with FAB.<\/p>\n

The offensive has not culminated and the southern front is de-facto breached now a bit west of Vuhledar.<\/p>\n

The missile rain is just starting to get going \u2013 the guess that it will be a winter campaign is almost pointless to argue against, right, and that Zelensky is trying to get some kind of agreement not to knock out energy infrastructure is directly tragic to have to hear.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1851380632124891401?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I have a rather loose theory that is not very logical but I think RU is doing the same as with the ground offensive, a constant grinding with some missiles and shaheds that they increase over time to higher daily efforts.
\nInstead of a big bang every fourteen days.<\/p>\n

Can the West send enough LV missiles?
\nNo, our missiles are too expensive and we produce too few (after 2.5 years\u2026)
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1851271609165754440?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Will the West send maneuver brigades east of the Dnieper?
\nNo, possibly west of the Dnieper (possibly), but even that is uncertain. If so, it would be Poland and\/or France but Poland has started to pull back and worries about national defense.<\/p>\n

All else equal, I am beginning to feel that the terrain east of the Dnieper is in danger unless the West ignores the Christmas holiday and comes up with something that seriously makes a difference \u2013 more of the same and Ukraine continues to retreat.<\/p>\n

It is a rumor at best, maybe even Gregg, that UA has already used units from the strategic reserve up in Kursk. Rumor and nothing to rely on thus, SALTINT.<\/p>\n

ISW makes the same assessment as the thread that UA has abandoned the area behind Sejm in Kursk.
\nhttps:\/\/www.dailykos.com\/stories\/2024\/11\/2\/2281802\/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-984-Both-sides-marginally-advanced-north-of-Sudzha-Kursk-Oblast<\/a><\/p>\n

Geraschenko writes straight out that UA has ammunition shortages but we see that at the fronts all the time so nothing new for us in the thread.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1852763537149730839?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Moldova is still undecided and we have to pray to the gods that it ends happily there.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukraine22win\/status\/1852700160121352264?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

UA UN ambassador could no longer keep silent.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/glasnostgone\/status\/1852738222620815592?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Robin Brooks speaks frankly
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/robin_j_brooks\/status\/1852715017524678674?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

But not everything is dark, do you remember at the start of the war when I suggested that drones would drop 155mm shells and was laughed at. I present drone-dropped tsarbomb \ud83d\udca5
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/danielr33187703\/status\/1852372659394257266?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

a Bushmaster blowing straight through a minefield \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/warmonitorclips\/status\/1851349463740125298?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The most important thing \u2013 everything is always relative. If Ukraine had received (or receives\u2026) equipment and ammunition and fought targets deep in Russia and the FAB traps stood as blackened wrecks on the airfields then RU would not have advanced at all, rather retreated.<\/p>\n

They advance because the West does not give Ukraine what they need to hold out and everything is in reserve stocks or unit-equipped.<\/p>\n

But never forget that when history is eventually written this will no longer be the truth but then Ukraine did not manage because of its own shortcomings and we will sit as sour old-old people and say that it was not like that at all and no one will believe us conspiracy theorists.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:31 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

We have said the whole war that the West does too little and too late and now it seems more and more people realize it (not just Ukrainians and pro-Ukrainian accounts on social media). <\/p>\n

The question is whether it will lead to anything, or if it turns out that the promises to support Ukraine as long as needed means supporting until Ukraine is forced to give up.<\/p>\n

Anyway, the election is soon over and we will see what it might mean.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ok, David D is no Biden fan but I also wonder why they don\u2019t even sell Black Hawks to UA but choose to give them away to other countries instead?<\/p>\n

Hard to see the logic in that.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1853166354666537125<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sandu won in Moldova<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/tendar\/status\/1853201474391609678?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Some were ahead I see now \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:37 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Very nice to see, and as a bonus (as I wrote further up) I hope the Russians burned a lot of money completely unnecessarily.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:53 \u2013 Johan No.1 Here you have it clearly written why there is criticism of the leaders in the West 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