{"id":9640,"date":"2024-11-01T10:41:52","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T09:41:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-11-01-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T10:44:22","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T08:44:22","slug":"2024-11-01-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-11-01-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-11-01"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:07<\/h2>\n

I saw that the day before yesterday Jay in Kiev posted an assumption that was wrong since the information did not support it \u2013 that the US influenced South Korea not to send weapons to Ukraine, so we are backing down on that. However, I saw some comments saying it is strange to criticize the US.<\/p>\n

Zelensky has come out absolutely PISSED that his Victory Plan leaked from the White House and that only 10% of the promised 2024 material has been delivered (and it\u2019s November). The UA debaters we have learned to listen to and whom we interpret as credible sources are now pouring out their US criticism; there is a small collage for tomorrow that you will like \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

And secondly, the US has previously itself announced that they stopped the entire EU from allowing EU missiles to be fired into Russia, so that assumption wasn\u2019t completely unreasonable either \ud83d\ude00
\nOr that they slowed down the F16s and prevented Australia from sending their M1 Abrams for quite a while.<\/p>\n

Also, we will soon get this verified because Ukraine has asked for support from South Korea; it\u2019s hard not to like Ukraine \ud83e\udd23
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1852015745451852006?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

A bit under the radar for us in the thread, the US also leaked Israel\u2019s retaliation plan against Iran and previously stopped all support to Israel to force them not to retaliate but had to resume it again.<\/p>\n

Do we support Ukraine or do we support the US in this war? I think that if you take the same level of criticism as Ukraine, you should be pretty accurate, and Zelensky is as angry as a hornet right now.
\nHistorically, we have been forgiving of UA psyops and have attacked the Russian ones, but the conflict has arisen when UA starts going out harder against the US. You know the whole \u201cif you criticize Biden you support Trump and then you support Putin\u201d discussion.<\/p>\n

Previously, the thread didn\u2019t want to hear about Ukrainian losses but wanted to see videos of droned Russians and not reality, so the thread wants some things adjusted that don\u2019t portray how it really looks (positive psyops?), but maybe wants to decide WHAT should be spun?<\/p>\n

Up to a point, that\u2019s not so bad, but when we have passed the limit of what Ukraine can absorb of Western passivity, it\u2019s time to bring it up \u2013 Ukraine themselves absolutely think so because they are raising it now in a large measure of desperation, especially regarding the North Koreans; they are not stupid and know what 500 officers mean.<\/p>\n

Also, many Western OSINTers are joining the chorus of complaints right now, not just the depressive rock gangs Rob, Defmon, and those. It\u2019s hard to find uplifting analyses at all these days.<\/p>\n

Do you know who joined NATO in 1955 despite the country having a territorial dispute \u2013 West Germany. Now it\u2019s not 1955 anymore unfortunately, and Scholz is one of those opposing Ukraine\u2019s membership partly based on their territorial dispute. Ungrateful?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/anders_aslund\/status\/1851642312377430153<\/a><\/p>\n

I was thinking a bit the day before yesterday about why the 128th Mountain wasn\u2019t in Shaktarske and think other brigades are missing too and that UA might have started building an offensive reserve with units from the fronts. My thought was to present a credible argument that UA has pulled experienced brigades from the fronts to build up an offensive reserve now that the thread wants positive news. After all, we have the Deepstatemap to relate to, and when it updates, we comment on it, and it\u2019s anything but fun right now.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, some black-rock depressives immediately crashed that by showing that the 128th has indeed fought in Shaktarske, which unfortunately means they were completely overrun by RU. A brigade that has been fighting since 2022 and is an elite unit.
\nIn Shaktarske, RU has continued forward to Yasna Poliana 3km north and 3km north of Bohoiavlenka, so it\u2019s moving fast.
\nAnd the Presidential brigade (what is its designation?) is now fighting in that area, so competent reserves are there even if only at battalion size and a bit west of these attack wedges.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1851329034971726072<\/a><\/p>\n

We have previously discussed that Ukraine has offensive reserves at the fronts, the 12th and 3rd as well as GUR moving around like a mobile fire brigade, for example. I continue to look if some brigades are missing that might be held back even if the first exercise went so-so.<\/p>\n

The other option is that they might have pulled them out to man new defensive lines further back.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/blyskavka_ua\/status\/1850838692639723599?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If we are to see this positively, UA is releasing this area and retreating to prepared defensive lines further back that have already been manned by capable units.<\/p>\n

The negative scenario is that this is a breakthrough we see in the Vuhledar area where experienced brigades are being overrun and there are no reserves to plug the holes. If RU reaches Kostyantynopil, or puts it under direct fire, it\u2019s a critical situation for everything east of there. According to the more optimistic (negative) maps, RU is 6km away and RU is absolutely pouring FAB and artillery over Rozlyv right now. RU artillery also now reaches Kostyantynopil.<\/p>\n

According to earlier reports, FAB does violent damage and seems to have completely taken over RU doctrine as artillery has gone down to 1:2. With a large effect portion and good accuracy, they are devastating.
\nThere are many relativists, especially since it is on the US\u2019s direct orders that all countermeasures against FAB have been stopped and statements about Wunderwaffen are eagerly mocked, but in WW1, flamethrowers worked well at first, then poison gas, and finally tanks before countermeasures were found. In WW2, it was the German armored troops that were hard to handle for a long time. FAB is somewhat unique in that they knock out the defense no matter how well built and dug in it is; there is no protection against this weapon.<\/p>\n

You see just like me how He\u2026bollah and H\u2026mas have been totally pulverized using these FAB.
\nAs soon as RU has figured out where the group or platoon is, they get a FAB dropped on them and are buried alive shortly if they haven\u2019t regrouped. RU\u2019s kill-chain has been cleaned up.<\/p>\n

The other side of the coin is that a huge effort with ATACMS cluster munitions and\/or Western air power in sufficient quantity, for example Gripen or F-16s that the EU has wanted to send for a long time, Denmark already at the start of the war according to their own statement \u2013 so 2.5 years ago \u2013 would within a few weeks completely neutralize the FAB traps. And if FAB is gone, RU stops advancing.<\/p>\n

But we also have a reality to relate to, and that is that RU gets to keep their FAB and Ukraine is retreating in a cloud of FAB.<\/p>\n

If you follow RU artillery efforts like I do, you see that before they start an attack on a locality, they bury it in MLRS, artillery, and FAB for a couple of days and it works uncomfortably well.<\/p>\n

Kruhlyiakivka is now largely captured, so it\u2019s unclear what Gregg\u2019s counterattack was about \u2013 he made it sound like UA eliminated that attack vector down towards Oskil, but it has actually widened.<\/p>\n

Twitter rumors from Gregg that UA has launched counterattacks near Kupiansk and Kharkiv, and Gregg wrote “elite units”. I intended to dig into the Twitter maps as well but haven’t seen any yet and Deepstate hasn’t been updated, but Erik14 posted a bit yesterday and it seems like UA has recaptured some terrain north of Kharkiv?
\nI still have a distinct feeling that Gregg has switched to positive-positive for a purpose.<\/p>\n

John Helin has a good summary
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/j_jhelin\/status\/1850645435653976208?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Shaktarske is interesting for an offensive vector straight north from there, going over open fields without major roads and without larger settlements for quite a distance.<\/p>\n

Now we have to wait for the full offensive on the Southern front and see where it takes us, and after that the smoke might clear, perhaps in terms of the RU offensive. Right now it is as far west as Urozaine but I have the impression that they will try offensive operations all the way to Kamyanske and have been highlighting this for quite some time.<\/p>\n

The offensive capability at Pokrovsk is only Gregg who actually wrote that RU has gathered everything they have there, but the southern front has been flagged for several months.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1851910583857140186?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

During the spring offensive 2023, Ukraine tried to attack without air superiority and ended up driving straight into minefields.<\/p>\n

A question I keep asking myself is where the hell the minefields on the Ukrainian side are?<\/p>\n

If RU managed to build a Surovikin line, why hasn’t Ukraine built that on the same static front over two years?
\nNow there is information from UA that their second and third line in Zaporiza is completed, so maybe they have?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/blyskavka_ua\/status\/1850838692639723599?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And after that, it remains to man it \u2013 just like in 2023, fortifications are only as good as they are manned, otherwise they are just a hole in the ground you step over.<\/p>\n

Then it seems like UA has managed to recapture the four-way intersection in the NW Kursk bend, which makes life easier up there \u2013 THAT is a positive \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The thread’s definition since February 2022 has correctly been that the 1991 borders must be reinstated.
\nZelensky stands firm on that and that he does not want a ceasefire, and his Victory plan aimed to regain the 1991 borders.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1850822767639183827?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

At least Germany (or Scholz) is pushing negotiations hard and I think we’ve heard others too.
\nHas anyone in the thread heard anything about the Victory plan for a while now?
\nIt includes further offensive into Russia, a violent missile barrage, and a lot more materiel delivered from the West.<\/p>\n

The West has two options \u2013
\n-resource Ukraine to be able to retake their country.
\n-don’t do that and try negotiations.
\nIf you want the first option, now is the time to resource, not after the Christmas break with family.<\/p>\n

We now place our hope on the next date which is November 5. Then I can guess that Trump’s alternative task if he loses is to put the USA in total deadlock but we are not there yet. However, we have a period November 5 \u2013 January 20 where Biden can\/will\/wants to do at least the following \u2013
\n-go out and say that the EU should let UA use their missiles wherever they want in Russia.
\n-go out and let Poland do what they want (send Patriot, shoot down missiles in Ukraine, fortify the Belarus border).
\n-go out and say there should be a no-fly zone in western UA and that troops from the EU are welcome.
\n-go out and say that UA can attack into Russia as they want.
\n-and he can decide on surplus materiel that does not require others’ approval.
\n-he can also take a personal stance MUCH more clearly that Russia should and must be fundamentally fought.<\/p>\n

If he doesn’t do that, you will have to keep listening to my whining \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

We are probably all starting to understand that Ukraine will not join NATO but we also see how JEF is starting to push forward positions.
\nMy earlier guess very early on was that JEF would gain relevance when NATO failed and it increasingly looks like that.
\nFinland is not out of step in time at all and Sweden seems to be following.
\nWell guessed by me thus, giving myself the highest score here, \ud83d\uded2\ud83d\uded2\ud83d\uded2\ud83d\uded2<\/p>\n

The Russian subversive activity wants to make you\/us\/everyone believe that Ukraine can handle this and that Russia will collapse any day now.
\nA Ukrainian front collapse is not impossible if it continues like this \u2013 the Russian offensive has not yet culminated.
\nUA strategic reserves highlighted are the 155th brigade and a few others, that is a rather meager strategic reserve and above all it is a new unit even if it is built on experienced veterans.<\/p>\n

Ukraine themselves are starting to talk about beginning to fortify Dnipropetrovsk oblast so you might understand how precarious the situation is.
\nPutin’s dream is to get the West to believe that Ukraine can handle this until all terrain east of the Dnieper is lost, preferably during the Christmas holidays when the West is more interested in eggnog and Christmas presents.<\/p>\n

That negotiations are around the corner is also pushed as an influence operation.<\/p>\n

That is what Lloyd Austin says for example, that Ukraine can handle this. Lloyd does not comment at all that Ukraine is retreating on most front sections.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/EuromaidanPress\/status\/1851736067646320736<\/a><\/p>\n

Then unfortunately it is like this \u2013 we are in the situation we are today because the usual idiots have not delivered since the start of the war. The materiel is still in reserve stocks and unit equipped and half of the EU is now buying new artillery, IFV and tanks that all could have gone to Ukraine \u2013 we also predicted this and that Putin through his threats would create this negative for Ukraine.
\nWe have guessed very much right in this war \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

As is well known, I have criticized this since the start of the war and now you are not allowed to criticize Biden but he has great blame in this as he has not delivered where he had full authority without others’ involvement.
\nIt is the FAB bombs that are the biggest problem \u2013 UA has decimated the artillery to 1:2 now but the FAB bomb droppers are protected by the USA.<\/p>\n

You have probably seen the videos from Shaktarske, Boyohavlivka and Novoukrainka and how the small communities were drowned in FAB before RU stormed them. There are ENORMOUS effects involved and it is simply no longer possible to defend small communities because FAB pulverizes all defensive positions and buries the defense alive.
\nThe result was that Russia gained the advantage and that party in the war cannot be controlled at all unfortunately, which is what we see now but Scholz and the USA have not quite grasped it yet I guess.<\/p>\n

They probably believe that negotiations are within reach?<\/p>\n

There is a huge risk \u2013 that Ukraine implodes. Zelensky has been attempted assassinated at least a dozen times and Budanov as well. The country is a patchwork of different wills trying to reach the top and Russia’s subversive activity is enormous.
\nThe country is under existential pressure.
\nThat is the risk the West accepts when they do not give Ukraine what they need and is naturally what worries me most of all \u2013 does the West even have a risk list to work with?<\/p>\n

Now the Czech Republic is also moving towards pro-Russian here and Moldova is not out of the woods at all yet. The Netherlands has Geert Wilders, France Le Pen, and Germany has Scholz.
\nThere is also a left-left faction in Labour that one can suspect where they have their home base besides Nigel Farage.
\nI don’t think the West can afford to let this war drag on either with this political landscape in mind.<\/p>\n

Zelensky has had enough.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1851603816514285686<\/a><\/p>\n

The USA has also leaked open parts of the victory plan, then the secret parts of the victory plan, they have leaked I..el’s attack plan on Iran and earlier they have leaked UA offensives so UA simply kept the Kursk operation secret for the USA so it could not be leaked.<\/p>\n

Everything ends up with Putin sooner or later so everything Ukraine tries, Putin knows about and everything is predictable for him throughout the war.<\/p>\n

When it came to Kursk they used this against Putin who was confident that nothing would happen because nothing had leaked yet, smart \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The fact that Zelensky and pro-Ukraine debaters we have learned are credible are as pissed off as they are right now is just a bad sign \u2013 they are under pressure and cannot keep quiet. Listen to Zelensky’s latest string of speeches and you will hear something negative where I will come across as Saturday Night Live.<\/p>\n

Now we have Rammstein in November and that is probably the last chance before the Christmas break to get something done I guess but Zelensky standing and trash-talking everyone a few weeks before that meeting is not exactly hopeful \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Follow the attack wedge going north from Shaktarske and you see how RU fights, some week before forward they absolutely pour in artillery, MLRS and FAB over the next community northwards and it shows on the maps so easy to follow like a little string of pearls.
\nThen after a while Deepstatemap updates that the next locality has fallen and that without us seeing destroyed columns so the defense is presumably heavily decimated by the pre-battle already.<\/p>\n

Just to make NK participation absolutely crystal clear, it is 500 officers and two generals, of which the only one is number two in the NK general staff.
\nYou understand just like me that we are now seeing the vanguard right and in the absence of reactions from the West the main force will come.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1851996720248320003?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1852007311348265246?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:12<\/h2>\n

Double-breaking, GUR has posted a picture of the first North Korean soldier in Russian uniform \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/olgabazova\/status\/1851554975156953582?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:51<\/h3>\n

You are swearing a bit in church for the pro-Biden crowd here Borjesson because according to them it is only the election that is slowing everything down \ud83d\ude00
\n(by the way, I joked yesterday that you were a troll, hope you understood that).<\/p>\n

The USA has pushed its role very hard since 1945, deciding who should have nuclear weapons and knocking out arms manufacturers and favoring its own arms industry. It’s almost only France that has gone “made without USA”.<\/p>\n

Now it has absolutely shifted and really significantly and Ukraine is our backyard so the EU should definitely make big decisions quickly.<\/p>\n

What makes it tricky is that the USA steps in and physically stops Europe from doing what we want to do.
\nThen we have to start breaking contracts and openly go against the USA and that’s where it gets difficult?<\/p>\n

If Biden had kept quiet, Storm Shadow \/Scalp would already have been used to combat targets all over Russia and Gripen denied FAB bomb drops together with F-16.<\/p>\n

And Ukraine would already in 2022 have trapped VDV near Kherson.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:02<\/h3>\n

The problem with all that, mate, is that as long as RU et.al actively escalates, you CANNOT try to push a line for de-escalation \u2013 it simply doesn’t work.<\/p>\n

Yes, right now it is the Spanish Civil War, or 1938, and how the West acts will lead us into the next phase.<\/p>\n

So far Russia et.al.
\n-has attacked Ukraine
\n-has let Houthi fight 103 ships in the Red Sea.
\n-the whole area around I..el is at war.
\n-carried out enormous amounts of sabotage in the EU.
\n-tried to overthrow the government in Moldova.
\n-taken over Georgia.
\n-threatens Finland and the Baltics with invasion.
\n-cut many cables in the Baltic Sea.
\n-taken over half of Africa and is creating refugee flows.
\n-threatens the entire West with nuclear weapons.
\n-has a candidate in the US election.
\n-has many political parties in the EU on its payroll.<\/p>\n

Did Franco really do all that \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

And above all, would Putin carry out sabotage throughout the EU if he intended to stop at the Dnieper?
\nFeels a bit like overkill?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:36<\/h3>\n

“actively interfering in a conflict”, isn’t the USA very much involved just not as a fighting party?<\/p>\n

The USA is very actively involved in this conflict by forcing Ukraine and the EU not to carry out many different plans they have to fight Russia.<\/p>\n

I won’t go through them again because I write about them too often. They stop Ukraine from doing all sorts of things and they prevent the EU from contributing in the ways that would help Ukraine the most.<\/p>\n

Yes, I think you are right in the following
\n“If the USA allows Ukraine to use American weapons for pinpoint attacks deep inside Russia, the risk increases enormously that the USA will soon be forced to deploy its own troops”<\/p>\n

The question I ask myself ALL THE TIME \u2013 with what right, what do they rely on?
\nThey are jumping on our entire world order, international law and above all that we stick together, not to mention what is best for the EU.<\/p>\n

The last paragraph, the problem is that then you are playing freely with the risk that Ukraine might lose instead. It is an extremely tightrope for Ukraine to try to balance on this.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

05:37<\/h2>\n

Thought-provoking from Zelensky, the West watches and yawns while North Korea sharpens its nuclear weapons with Russia’s help.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/zelenskyyua\/status\/1852457667299864913?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

05:38<\/h3>\n

(I think I have the source here under control).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:10<\/h2>\n

Was this up with pbv in Ukraine<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/soldfcom\/status\/1852412006034227239?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:32<\/h2>\n

This one from the trinket collector above is very interesting.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/Kiborgzzz\/status\/1852097224941146144<\/a><\/p>\n

I see a trench packed full of soldiers which RU would never do and drone-dropped wing grenade.<\/p>\n

Are NK already in the trenches at the fronts?<\/p>\n

Now we obviously have to figure out if the trinket collector is a troll and then the source, looks like NAFO but new to me?<\/p>\n

How do we figure out if the soldiers in the trench are North Koreans?<\/p>\n

Maybe we can’t so then we have to throw away this piece of evidence, right?<\/p>\n

Sad because it benefits Putin the longer it takes before the West is forced to act but rules are rules \ud83d\ude2c<\/p>\n

Is it possible to challenge the rules a bit so you continue with things that are good for Ukraine even if it might not be provable, asking for a friend?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:33<\/h3>\n

How do we figure out if the Krimskramsaren is a troll, I got stuck immediately \ud83d\ude2c<\/p>\n

Can you say bun Krimskramsaren?<\/p>\n

If you couldn’t, you are either from Sk\u00e5ne or Russian, could you say bun?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:49<\/h2>\n

Do you remember the North Korean defectors who wanted to go to Ukraine, defected soldiers who wanted to help UA?<\/p>\n

Surely that means every NK prisoner UA shows could be them?<\/p>\n

Since it can never be proven, must we then dismiss every film\/photo of a North Korean from Ukraine?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:59<\/h2>\n

This drone interceptor was damn clever, just a shame that it is Russian, smart<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/clashreport\/status\/1852243496037495001?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:01<\/h3>\n

That principle will probably become a squad weapon with a belt of ammunition going forward.<\/p>\n

Instead of a shot, you shoot a small interceptor drone<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:14<\/h3>\n

Now we\u2019re starting to get somewhere instead of all those EV weapons that never work or shots that can miss.<\/p>\n

Wait for \u2013 drum magazine and an interceptor drone that unfolds upon firing, better IR sight and drone warning system.<\/p>\n

All at squad level \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:15<\/h3>\n

Then at company level you have interceptor drones for the condors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:17<\/h3>\n

The drone weapon just became less potent \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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