{"id":9661,"date":"2024-11-12T10:15:32","date_gmt":"2024-11-12T09:15:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-11-12-4\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T10:46:27","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T08:46:27","slug":"2024-11-12-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-11-12-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-11-12"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

We now have a total of 50 attacks on refineries \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

On the fronts, it is still bad and now RU has advanced at Velyka Novosilka and their offensive along the southern front is underway further west, so I think we can conclude that it has started.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1856072861385142642?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

South of Pokrovsk, there is movement everywhere in all possible directions.
\nUA has lost marginal terrain in Kursk and the RU offensive up there does not seem to be going very well despite wild tapeworm attacks.<\/p>\n

Kriegsforscher is really struggling \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/osintua\/status\/1856030625880588444?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Of course, Putin wants to retake the area but unfortunately he also has FAB, which is infinitely worse than we are led to believe \u2013 RU sends forward some expendables and as soon as the drones identify UA positions, FAB rains down. It is not easy to run around between alternative firing positions and after a while RU has logged all three and simultaneously puts three FABs into them.<\/p>\n

I believe the remedy up in Kursk is new attack vectors straight into Russia, it doesn’t have to be a major operation, a couple of battalions are enough now that they have learned to break through mine lines and fortifications. It is a bit too easy for RU to have just one “bubble” to attack from three of four directions and aim for the middle.<\/p>\n

North Luhansk is also starting to look quite bad and if RU reaches the Oskil river, they have an easily defensible anchor on their northern flank that will be difficult for UA to retake.<\/p>\n

The timer is definitely running for the EU here \u2013 at some point, weapons alone will no longer be enough and it will be our sons who must be sacrificed in war. When we get there is hard to say but to believe you have time when Ukraine is retreating everywhere is a strikingly slow and ignorant handling of the risk list.<\/p>\n

So what is positive then \u2013 well, the thread’s favorite president Macron has gotten Starmer on board to persuade Biden to allow the use of Storm Shadow for target elimination in Russia \u2013 primarily the ban from the Biden administration still apparently remains despite all the thread’s promises that the plug would be pulled on November 6, but gold star to Macron for trying. Macron is also to deliver more Scalp, I have heard they are being produced again.<\/p>\n

They have the priorities right \u2013 try to get Biden on board with everything before Trump takes office so they have covered themselves against the worst outcome from Trump \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1855885776363364683?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

In Germany, the opposition leader is almost a bit too warlike \u2013 capitulate or Taurus cloud. We have never heard such harsh rhetoric from Germany and apparently he feels he has a chance to advance with this policy so maybe Putin is starting to lose his grip on Germany?
\nIt is also very refreshing that Scholz will die on his damn Taurus hill.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1856064378908373375?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then you have, just like me, seen that the refinery and oil depot drone attacks have resumed \ud83d\ude01
\nThere was no “deal” as hinted and Ukraine will presumably drive this home now?
\nAccording to earlier, Russia has already lost the strategic bombing war.<\/p>\n

And above all, they are doing it despite Trump winning, which must be considered a positive \u2013 that Trump did not call and make lots of demands that targets in Russia must not be attacked, for example, and forced them to comply under threat of withdrawn support?
\nTo do something like that as the incoming US president would be very un-American, right \ud83e\uddd0
\n(managed to criticize Biden without even mentioning Biden, quite pleased with that).<\/p>\n

Because the last thing Putin wants besides Kursk is to have his refinery capability shot down again.<\/p>\n

Quite a bit of signal politics from Putin right now presumably aimed at Trump. For me, this is highly interesting as the assumption was largely that Trump would take a peace plan from Putin and put his name under it \u2013 but I haven’t seen that the week after the election.<\/p>\n

Here you have Medvedev who is spewing a bit of everything, maybe a few weeks old \u2013 not easy when it is edited
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1855968440416145443?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I’m starting to get back some of my positive feeling when I see Putin’s attempts to boss Trump around \u2013 it’s actually really fun to read and a bit of a feeling of trouble in paradise.<\/p>\n

I also follow the intended nominations which are presumably still his short-list MAGA group vs. sensible GOP vs. those who are just career politicians and do nothing \u2013 it’s a bit messier for me to figure out but others probably have better insight.
\nWhat he should do if he wants to do right is sensible GOP nominations but Nikki Haley is not considered, for example.<\/p>\n

If I understand this correctly now, Trump got his Trilekta \u2013 both houses R and himself as president. That gives him the strongest possible mandate to push his policy whatever it is.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/america\/status\/1856134607680204814?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

There is very strong support in R for Ukraine and they have several times tried to push Biden to do more.
\nWithin a few months we will know if Trump either brakes GOP will or goes ahead \u2013 my hope is of course that Putin’s attempts to suppress Trump will not work out so well but we are not there yet.<\/p>\n

EU must now assume the worst and take the lead here. Regardless of how Trump chooses to act, a clear message from him is still that the EU must do more. Taking over border protection against Belarus should be on the table and an air defense over western Ukraine as well.
\nAnd of course to strike targets in Russia and then increase training and resourcing of UA brigades so a strategic offensive reserve can be formed.<\/p>\n

Instead of asking Biden for permission, maybe Macron and Starmer should ask Trump and present it as revenge for Putin outing his wife’s scantily clad pictures and videos on national TV \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

This one is directly speculative but the person believes that quite a few Russians only exist on paper, PerraG55 might have something to say here \ud83d\ude00
\nConsidering that all other figures are lies, it is not impossible but as few as 70 million sounds completely unreasonable to me?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/petite_michelle\/status\/1855954492371472618?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

So \u2013 in WORDS there are slightly more positive signals but it must be translated into ACTION and then some time must pass before everything is in place and only then does Ukraine have the opportunity to change course.<\/p>\n

The longer it takes for our glorious leaders to understand that we are in 1938, the greater the likelihood that we will end up there.
\nMacron is pushing full speed ahead and in Germany they are trying to get rid of Scholz \u2013 we now pray to the gods that Biden lifts the ban on Storm Shadow because a huge effort against FAB traps would immediately make a difference.<\/p>\n

Above all, the Ukrainian citizens need to feel that they have the EU behind them \u2013 if they feel that, they can hold on a little longer.<\/p>\n

During 2024, the West has made absolutely catastrophic decisions that have prolonged the war, bans, penalties for Kursk, and above all, not sent equipment and then stopped each other from sending equipment.<\/p>\n

If the Scud rain had hit Russia and many attack vectors from 14 top-equipped brigades had pushed in from the northern front, the situation would probably look different, and it took quite a while before Zelensky had enough and went public with how little the West had actually done. Until then, they kept a good face in a bad game.<\/p>\n

Now we have about a month before the collective West takes Christmas break and then nothing happens until mid-January 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Did I post this yesterday Badaboom, either a lot of people confuse the 12th and 3rd or it has also been divided into battalions that rotate for offensives.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/d_y_m_y_z\/status\/1851658402742587697?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I think both the 12th and 3rd are divided and exist as a mobile fire brigade force scattered everywhere.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Hello Thread,<\/p>\n

Mike Waltz absolutely HARD against Russia \ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n

(from 2022)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1856173648710906013?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Cold Hard Steel is the only thing that bites on the Russian bastards \ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

(Has he thought of sword fighting or is it figurative, do you think?)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Mike Waltz again, let UA fight targets in Russia with Western weapons \ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29
\nRecently.<\/p>\n

Really starting to like this guy \u2013 he has the right mindset to pave over Moscow.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/osinttechnical\/status\/1856166839794933992?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Do you have some source for the below that is actually interesting \u2013<\/p>\n

\u201cOne such rumor is that Trump became seriously interested in two things in Zelensky’s peace plan. One is preferential access to natural resources in Ukraine. The other is that Ukraine’s gigantic army could largely replace the US army in Europe. Unclear how that fits with another rumor that Ukraine would not join NATO for 20 years, but have something separate with a \u2018coalition of the willing\u2019\u2026 but not all rumors are true anyway.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

The source includes FT, I just saw now Claes \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, all that and all OSINTers, analysts and others in ALL fields who roam freely on the platforms.<\/p>\n

In the 90s, the music industry was heavily centralized and now anyone can post a music video that becomes popular on YouTube and make a career.<\/p>\n

The \u201cadult industry\u201d also went from centralized to decentralized (I’ve heard rumors\u2026).<\/p>\n

Which leads me to think that the film industry with AI’s help will go the same way \ud83d\ude00
\nI have hopes for this as there usually come some fan films to good movies that are not so bad but a bit low budget.
\nWith AI’s entry, you no longer need a budget, just understand AI and then it becomes the same cost as a cheap music video.
\nImagine if we suddenly get that breadth in film and series as in the music industry \ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

See that Redigmankanske might have had to misinterpret and attribute to me something I absolutely did not say (or imply) to be able to get upset.<\/p>\n

You do get holy points for a large portion of creativity but the rule is that if the overwintered fascist PerraG55 does not show up, you must describe the situation in Russia going forward \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Miss his morning call for the record (not Redigmankanske but PerraG55)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Ok \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:55 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

You survived until LW saw your post!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:34 \u2013 Johan No.1 We now have a total of 50 attacks on refineries \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5 On the fronts, it is 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