{"id":10172,"date":"2026-10-09T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/?p=10172"},"modified":"2026-10-09T09:47:04","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T07:47:04","slug":"ukraina-frontrapport-9-oktober-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/ukraina-frontrapport-9-oktober-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraina frontrapport, 9 Oktober 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Det \u00e4r fortsatt klurigt att lista ut vad som p\u00e5g\u00e5r och nu verkar \u00e4ven project owl h\u00e5lla tillbaka s\u00e5 man f\u00e5r g\u00e5 p\u00e5 ryska k\u00e4llor. N\u00e4r ryska k\u00e4llor gallskriker \u00f6ver negativa nyheter finns det h\u00f6gre trov\u00e4rdighet \u00e4n n\u00e4r dom ljuger om ryska framg\u00e5ngar. Mitt filter g\u00e5r via andra trov\u00e4rdiga UA osintare som refererar de ryska k\u00e4llorna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Det stoppade i och f\u00f6r sig inte mig verkar det som och jag postade en d\u00e5lig karta i sista inl\u00e4gget. Var ute efter Zherebetslinjen men den visade en framryckning mot Siversk och Bilohorivka som inte finns, det \u00e4r betydligt l\u00e4ngre \u00f6sterut \u00e4n UA kommit (tror jag).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sen g\u00f6r det inte saken b\u00e4ttre att RU b\u00f6rjat en ny p\u00e5verkansoperation d\u00e4r dom medvetet \u00f6verdriver UA framg\u00e5ngar f\u00f6r att misskreditera osintare som ligger n\u00e4ra sanningen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sen har vi tydligen ett batteri indiska content-farmers p\u00e5 X som snor ihop vadsomhelst med AI och g\u00f6r det sensationellt f\u00f6r klick Har l\u00e4rt mig k\u00e4nna igen de v\u00e4rsta syndarna men seri\u00f6sa osintare \u00e4r helt galna p\u00e5 dom och br\u00e5kar varje dag \u2013 och bidrar till klicken&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nu har dom dessutom kommit p\u00e5 att \u00f6ppna konton med ukrainska namn och skriva p\u00e5 ukrainska vilket r\u00f6r till det lite eftersom dom tar snarlika namn fr\u00e5n etablerade osintare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En bl\u00e4nkare jag tror p\u00e5, UA kom \u00f6ver ryska gr\u00e4nsen och framrycker nosar p\u00e5 Tetkino i Belgorod Oblast. Ingen j\u00e4tteskr\u00e4ll alls men rysk mark \u00e4r det \u00e4ven om det \u00e4r i kvadratmeter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Invasion av Ryssland &#8211; igen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nordkoreanerna fr\u00e5n deras 11th AC ligger i bakre d\u00e4ruppe s\u00e5 gissar att UA skyndar l\u00e5ngsamt s\u00e5 dom inte brakar in i dom igen. UA har respekt f\u00f6r nordkoreanerna som tydligen \u00e4r ganska formidabla.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sydkorea har enligt vad jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r en slirig president nu och br\u00e5ket med Ukraina om de tv\u00e5 tillf\u00e5ngatagna nordkoreanerna \u00e4r regisserat f\u00f6rmodligen. Sydkorea har ocks\u00e5 s\u00e5lt ohemula m\u00e4ngder diesel till Ryssland nu i sommar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kanske dags f\u00f6r Europa att vara f\u00f6rsiktiga med den enorma m\u00e4ngd materiel vi k\u00f6pt av Sydkorea s\u00e5 det inte blir som med USA \u2013 dom tar pengarna och f\u00f6rsenar leveranserna i n\u00e5gra \u00e5r?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!MYcV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5190b24-7dcb-43cb-97d4-eddd97427619_1142x762.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!MYcV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5190b24-7dcb-43cb-97d4-eddd97427619_1142x762.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.4986876640419948;width:1142px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 troligt att UA korsade Zherebets N\u00d6 om Lyman men att RU genomf\u00f6rt motanfall f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka stabilisera omr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Det har varit strider i Terny, Yampolivka och Novosadove men ocks\u00e5 uppgifter att RU f\u00f6rt fram reserver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c4r f\u00f6rmodligen fortfarande skarpt l\u00e4ge f\u00f6r RU i det omr\u00e5det och det \u00e4r min \u00e5sikt att Zherebets fortfarande \u00e4r passerad p\u00e5 ett par platser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Det \u00e4r 67th och 144th MRD som f\u00f6rsvarar den linjen och dom har precis l\u00f6pt gatlopp under en rysk retr\u00e4tt vilket \u00e4r oorganiserad flykt alle man f\u00f6r sig sj\u00e4lva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3rd MRD f\u00f6rsvarar i norr och dom \u00e4r v\u00e4l is\u00e5fall det f\u00f6rband som klarat sig b\u00e4st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reserver \u00e4r 4-5st BARS bataljoner och n\u00e5t DPR regemente som tagit upp f\u00f6rsvar l\u00e4ngs med n\u00e4sta vattendrag, det NS g\u00e5ende Krasna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fortfarande 20th och 25th CAA som har \u00f6vergripande ansvar f\u00f6r omr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!xebV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F248a105c-f2b3-4ddc-b8fc-8afed892f3e0_805x683.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!xebV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F248a105c-f2b3-4ddc-b8fc-8afed892f3e0_805x683.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.1786237188872621;width:805px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Skulle de mer optimistiska kartorna d\u00e4r uppe st\u00e4mma, typ den jag postade i sista frontuppdateringen, d\u00e5 \u00e4r det total frontkollaps och vi hade nog h\u00f6rt betydligt mer fr\u00e5n ett v\u00e4lt twitter. \u00e4ven om David D skriver just det om hela kriget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Full frontkollaps har vi inte \u00e4nnu s\u00e5ledes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nye \u00d6B Drapatyi har b\u00e5de sparkat chefer men ocks\u00e5 befordrat, han har hyllats ganska h\u00e5rt men det gick nog till ungef\u00e4r som n\u00e4r Sirsky tog \u00f6ver och yxan gick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Det han d\u00e4remot ocks\u00e5 gjort \u00e4r att han tog \u00f6ver ett f\u00e4rdigt k\u00e5rsystem fr\u00e5n Sirsky och sen tog de i hans tycke b\u00e4sta k\u00e5rcheferna och uppgraderade dom till milit\u00e4romr\u00e5deschefer \u2013 vips fick man erfarna truppchefer p\u00e5 alla positioner som g\u00f6r skillnad ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r stabsofficerare som mest syssels\u00e4tter sig med att undvika fara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tydligen har han skickat stabsofficerare utan stridserfarenhet till stridande f\u00f6rband och nu f\u00e5r bara officerare med stridserfarenhet leda k\u00e5rer och MILO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Han har ocks\u00e5 h\u00e5rddelegerat ansvar och ut\u00f6kat handlingsfriheten f\u00f6r k\u00e5r och MILO chefer vilket vi direkt s\u00e5g. Dom hade v\u00e4l alla stridsplaner som dom inte fick igenom med Sirsky kanske och n\u00e4r det sl\u00e4ppte kom dom ig\u00e5ng ganska direkt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Drapatyi har ocks\u00e5 arbetat fram en \u00f6vergripande stridsplan som d\u00e5 \u00e4r strategisk och \u00f6ver MILO och k\u00e5rchefernas aktiviteter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u00e4r har han nog den offensiva strategiska reserven till del kvar och kan d\u00e5 genomf\u00f6ra \u00f6vergripande strategiska operationer tillsammans med MILO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00e5got man nog kan sl\u00e5 fast redan nu \u00e4r att de beslut som fattats har varit bra och att det vi ser \u00e4r ett trimmat lag med v\u00e4ldigt mycket vilja att vinna. Landslaget 94 med Brolin och han den andra, sandelin?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kan staber, stridsledning, han sj\u00e4lv, FM och politiken bara h\u00e5lla sig borta b\u00f6r det h\u00e4r kunna g\u00e5 oerh\u00f6rt bra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De stridandes konton jag f\u00f6ljer p\u00e5 X b\u00f6rjar bli v\u00e4ldigt positiva, liv har bl\u00e5sts in i den ukrainska krigsmakten igen och det kommer man l\u00e5ngt p\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Har ryssj\u00e4vlarna lyckats stabilisera Lyman \u00e4r d\u00e5 fr\u00e5gan ni alla oroligt v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 att f\u00e5 besvarad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nej, RU doktrin \u00e4r nu att skytte \u00e4r f\u00f6rbrukningsvara och under egen offensiv v\u00e4ljer dom tid, plats, f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpar och skickar fram skyttet. Ingen \u00e4r innanf\u00f6r deras beslutscirkel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under f\u00f6rsvar vilket m\u00e5nga tolkar som att det \u00e4r en l\u00e4ttare uppgift vet dom inte vad som skall h\u00e4nda och UA f\u00f6rband \u00e4r r\u00f6rliga s\u00e5 deras indirekta eld fungerar s\u00e4mre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 d\u00e4r och d\u00e5 UA kan komma innanf\u00f6r deras beslutscirkel vilket dom nu gjort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Skyttet \u00e4r fortfarande en f\u00f6rbrukningsbar ammunition och det g\u00e5r \u00e5t hiskeliga m\u00e4ngder \u00e4ven vid f\u00f6rsvar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sen \u00e4r dom reaktiva vilket d\u00e5 betyder att dom m\u00e5ste f\u00f6ra fram f\u00f6rband till hotade omr\u00e5den och d\u00e5 \u00e4r dom helt exponerade f\u00f6r dr\u00f6narvapnet d\u00e4r dom bandar p\u00e5 landsv\u00e4g \u2013 vi har sannolikt sett en del av det g\u00f6mt i de h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rlustsiffrorna senaste veckorna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vi har sett b\u00f6rjan nu och de offensiva operationerna b\u00f6rjar bli frontbreda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enligt tidigare kan UA poola ihop f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga vid frontasvnitt och f\u00e5 ett absolut \u00f6vertag, dom har ett eget dr\u00f6narvapen s\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvaret \u00e4r isolerat p\u00e5 djupet och deras anti-dr\u00f6narvapen g\u00f6r att RU inte kan flyga sina d\u00e5liga dr\u00f6nare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u00e5 kan UA b\u00f6rja strida mekaniserat igen vilket dom g\u00f6r och p\u00e5 andra sidan staketet st\u00e5r det utspritt skytte utan mat, vatten, ammunition eller f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alla arm\u00e9k\u00e5rer har inte samma lyxbehandling alls som 3rd AC eller Azov och p\u00e5 vissa platser \u00e4r l\u00e4get tr\u00e4ngt fortfarande men det r\u00f6r sig fram\u00e5t \u00f6ver hela ytan egentligen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Putin har tre h\u00e5rda val att g\u00f6ra \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-f\u00f6rsvara med det han har i Ukraina tills dom backat ut fr\u00e5n Ukraina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka upp i Ukraina med den offensiva strategiska reserven eller nymobiliserade f\u00f6rband.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-f\u00f6rsvara Ukraina med det han har i Ukraina f\u00f6r att k\u00f6pa tid samtidigt som han \u00f6ppnar ny konfliktyta mot en motst\u00e5ndare som inte kan krig 2026 &#8211; ett upplevt \u00f6vertag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Han kan teoretiskt ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka anfalla s\u00f6derut fr\u00e5n Belarus men det har nog avr\u00e5tts honom f\u00f6r det f\u00f6rst\u00e5r \u00e4ven ryssarna att det skulle bli blodbad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2022 var planen att Ungern och Transnistrien anf\u00f6ll norrut samtidigt som Belarus anf\u00f6ll s\u00f6derut och man klippte av Ukraina fr\u00e5n Europa &#8211; polarna som sviker gjorde inte det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Orban avskedade sedan n\u00e5t hundratal h\u00f6gre officerare s\u00e5 kanske var dom som orderv\u00e4grade?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ett och tv\u00e5 \u00e4r oattraktiva och jag \u00e4r r\u00e4tt s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 att han v\u00e4ljer tre, \u00e5terst\u00e5r att se var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Parallellt med detta kommer han \u00f6ka trycket mot oss, nu fungerade inte det hybridkrig han f\u00f6rt sedan i somras och ryska DNA dikterar d\u00e5 att fungerar inte niv\u00e5n p\u00e5 v\u00e5ldet \u00f6kar man niv\u00e5n p\u00e5 v\u00e5ldet \u2013 dom har inte n\u00e5gon annan m\u00f6jlighet med den ratten som bara g\u00e5r medsols.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S\u00e5 h\u00e4r kommer det h\u00e5lla p\u00e5 till Ryssland kollapsar in\u00e5t och b\u00f6rjar \u00e4ta upp varandra. Det har redan b\u00f6rjat och FSB har rensat h\u00e5rt i f\u00f6rsvarsmakten senaste \u00e5ret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ukraina \u00e4r l\u00e5sta, dom kan bara g\u00e5 fram\u00e5t tills deras land \u00e4r \u00e5tertaget allt annat kommer kasta ned dom i inrikes kaos som \u00f6ver tid leder till att RU \u00e4ter sig in i landet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Om dom har den minsta chans kommer dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka kollapsa Ryssland in\u00e5t s\u00e5 det blir fullt kaos d\u00e4r \u2013 ju svagare Ryssland \u00e4r desto b\u00e4ttre f\u00f6r dom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Det ok\u00e4nda \u00e4r vad Europa kommer g\u00f6ra men sedan sen sommar har vi b\u00f6rjat visa huggt\u00e4nderna och det \u00e4r jag n\u00f6jd med. Vi g\u00f6r l\u00e5ngtifr\u00e5n tillr\u00e4ckligt men man slipper sk\u00e4mmas, ungef\u00e4r s\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vad jag kan se fr\u00e5n trygg l\u00e4ktarplats \u00e4r det positiva tecken \u00f6verallt men vi famlar lite i blindo pga. OPSEC och f\u00e5r g\u00e5 p\u00e5 osintarna. Ber \u00e5terigen om urs\u00e4kt f\u00f6r den d\u00e5liga kartan, MXT skulle ha stoppat mig ta g\u00e4rna upp det med honom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gl\u00f6m nu inte heller att springa till en betald prenumeration, fler felaktiga kartor utlovas. Jag sitter och filar p\u00e5 boken om Dengamle som kommer postas h\u00e4r och \u00f6ppet \u00e4r b\u00e4st tills det inte g\u00e5r l\u00e4ngre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">MXT p\u00e5 johanno1.se har jobbat extra med att migrera alla inl\u00e4ggen fr\u00e5n den andra bloggen, han l\u00e4gger upp \u00f6versatta filmer och ska nu kasta sig in i AI filmer baserat p\u00e5 den b\u00e4sts\u00e4ljande boken. Jag har tydligen ocks\u00e5 blivit polisanm\u00e4ld av tre bokf\u00f6rl\u00e4ggare men det verkar vara en helt annan beef \u00e4n den jag har med Mona.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Undertecknad blev ocks\u00e5 bl\u00e5st av DeepL d\u00e4r en full obegr\u00e4nsad \u00e5rsprenumeration nu har ett par inl\u00e4ggs begr\u00e4nsningar och dom vill ha 500EUR till som tack f\u00f6r min \u00e5rsprenumeration. B\u00e5de tid och pengar f\u00f6r oss b\u00e4gge s\u00e5 om ni l\u00e4ser och v\u00e4rderar jobbet vi g\u00f6r \u2013 swisha MXT och prenumerera p\u00e5 min Substack.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Det \u00e4r fortsatt klurigt att lista ut vad som p\u00e5g\u00e5r och nu verkar \u00e4ven project owl h\u00e5lla tillbaka s\u00e5 man [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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