{"id":135,"date":"2025-01-12T17:32:24","date_gmt":"2025-01-12T16:32:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/?p=135"},"modified":"2025-05-25T14:22:03","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T12:22:03","slug":"ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-12-januari-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-12-januari-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraina daglig uppdatering 12 Januari 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jag \u00e4r ju som bekant sl\u00e4kting med General Patton via en champagneglad sekreterare s\u00e5 jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r ju lite hur t\u00e4nket gick hos honom och han kommer bli gr\u00f6n av avund under 2025 \u00f6ver Ukrainas v\u00e5ldsamma offensiver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hur g\u00e5r kriget nu n\u00e4r alla deppar?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading Johan\u2019s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Subscribed<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag kan ber\u00e4tta hur det g\u00e5r \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Trump kommer inte ha n\u00e5n vidare makt \u00f6ver vad EU g\u00f6r framledes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-EU har best\u00e4mt sig f\u00f6r att ta fajten det \u00e4r tydligt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-RU g\u00e5r fram\u00e5t s\u00e5 pass lite senaste m\u00e5naderna att det \u00e4r direkt pinsamt om vi ser till f\u00f6rlusterna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-UA dr\u00f6nar s\u00f6nder Ryssland och framf\u00f6rallt drivmedel och ammunition samt tillverkning av nyckelkomponenter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-RU svarar upp d\u00e5ligt med robotattacker och deras modus operandi \u00e4r att vederg\u00e4lla ggr 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-v\u00e4st levererar MYCKET materiel nu, h\u00e5rda paket, och m\u00e5nga l\u00e4nder har \u00e5tagit sig att tr\u00e4na ukrainska brigader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Ukraina destabiliserar nu ryssland aktivt inifr\u00e5n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Ukraina har v\u00e4l f\u00e5tt till\u00e5telse att forts\u00e4tta invadera Ryssland OCH sl\u00e5 mot tidigare f\u00f6rbjuden infrastruktur \u2013 oljeexporten. De f\u00f6rhatliga geografiska begr\u00e4nsningarna fr\u00e5n Biden \u00e4r borttagna till del eller helt, eller s\u00e5 har Ukraina slutat bry sig?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024 var det l\u00e4ge att vara orolig f\u00f6r v\u00e4st vacklade, fr\u00e4mst var det riksf\u00f6rr\u00e4darna Biden, Sullivan och Scholz men \u00f6vriga ledare i v\u00e4st h\u00f6ll tyst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu har land efter land dragits in i konflikten och har indirekt konfrontation med RU \u2013 Finland, baltikum, Sverige och Frankrike som minst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UK h\u00e5ller l\u00e5g profil fortfarande och fulspelar lite lagom s\u00e5 att det skall se stort ut samt att Scholz g\u00f6r sitt b\u00e4sta s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge han kan att f\u00f6rst\u00f6ra Tysklands rykte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scholz har sk\u00e4mt ut Tyskland, Biden har sk\u00e4mt ut USA och Kier Starmer sk\u00e4mmer ut UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Norden st\u00e5r starka f\u00f6rutom Norge som borde g\u00f6ra mer. Danmark \u00e4r ett absolut lejon som kommer in som god tv\u00e5a efter Finland (eftersom dom tar fajten i f\u00f6rsta linjen) och d\u00e4refter Sverige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finland har beslagtagit rysk egendom inom landet, st\u00e4ngt gr\u00e4nsen, f\u00f6rklarat att kommer det en rysk bataljon \u00f6ver gr\u00e4nsen kommer dom vederg\u00e4lla mot Moskva och bordat ryskt fartyg. Samt att Ryssland genomf\u00f6r krigsf\u00f6rberedande sabotage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det h\u00e4r \u00e4r v\u00e4l s\u00e5 n\u00e4ra \u00f6ppen konflikt det g\u00e5r att komma utan att ha en \u00f6ppen konflikt?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baltikum f\u00f6ljer v\u00e4l n\u00e4stan med men dom \u00e4r aningen f\u00f6rsiktigare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frankrike \u00e4r ju just nu Macron som \u00e4r drivande och det kan ha ett slutdatum men han tog fajten med Putin redan Januari 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tiden \u00e4r p\u00e5 ukrainas sida och allting \u00e4r alltid relativt – RU b\u00f6rjar f\u00e5 problem med att sj\u00f6s\u00e4tta mekbrigader f\u00f6r dom har inga h\u00e5rda fordon kvar och artilleriet \u00e4r kn\u00e4ckt. Dom f\u00f6rlitar sig p\u00e5 infanterianfall d\u00e4r dom transporterar fram skyttet med vilka fordon som nu finns tillg\u00e4ngliga ned till elscooter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samtidigt som Ukraina nu i allt st\u00f6rre utstr\u00e4ckning f\u00e5r den materiel fr\u00e5n \u00f6versta hyllan dom velat ha \u2013 nyproduktion vilket l\u00e4nderna i EU godk\u00e4nt f\u00f6r det \u00e4r bra f\u00f6r business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r dom skulle skickat senaste tidigare och nyproducerat till sig sj\u00e4lva\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minns ni diskussionen om att v\u00e4st ALDRIG skulle skicka det senaste till Ukraina f\u00f6r att inte ge RU tillg\u00e5ng till teknologin. Jo jag ser det med tyska LYNX \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alla f\u00f6rklaringsmodeller \u00e4r alltid fel fr\u00e5n de negativa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men ja \u2013 Ukraina m\u00e5ste kunna h\u00e5lla emot vid fronterna men den befarade frontkollapsen kom inte 2024 n\u00e4r v\u00e4st som h\u00e4mnd f\u00f6r Kursk slutade leverera materiel, igen\u2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uppe vid Kursk har Ukraina bland sina mest skyddsv\u00e4rda f\u00f6rband och olika SOF f\u00f6rband som Naval Operations Center strider som skytte f\u00f6r att h\u00e5lla emot flodv\u00e5gen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e4kerligen under 20 000st s\u00e5 numer\u00e4rt underl\u00e4ge mot ryssarnas 60 000st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men vad f\u00f6rlorar RU dagligen d\u00e4ruppe, s\u00e4kert runt tusen i KWIA om inte alla dagar i veckan s\u00e5 ett par. De 60 000st som finns d\u00e4r r\u00e4cker s\u00e5ledes i tv\u00e5 m\u00e5nader och sen \u00e4r dom p\u00e5 noll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ukraina f\u00f6r r\u00f6rlig f\u00f6rsvarsstrid i Kursk<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Jag vet inte hur turerna g\u00e5r med mobiliseringen men jag kan tala om f\u00f6r er att om skyttet b\u00f6rjar v\u00e4dra morgonluft och UA rekryterar brett i EU s\u00e5 \u00e4r det m\u00e5nga hundratusen som inte vill missa chansen att kn\u00e4ppa en ryssj\u00e4vel innan kriget \u00e4r \u00f6ver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r den garanterade biljetten till antingen d\u00f6d eller grav invaliditet som \u00e4r avh\u00e5llande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samma f\u00f6r ryska laget och d\u00e4r \u00e4r det ingen \u00e4ndring i sikte s\u00e5 Putin kommer f\u00e5 allt sv\u00e5rare att rekrytera. Han kan ju inte mobilisera n\u00e5n miljon f\u00f6r det \u00e4r ett st\u00f6rre hot mot honom \u00e4n Ukraina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA \u00e4r fula och se hur mycket dom tar \u00f6ver av LNG och oljeexporter till EU s\u00e5 f\u00f6rst\u00e5r ni att dom v\u00e4ntade tills dom kunde b\u00f6rja leverera tills dom gick h\u00e5rt ut mot Ryssland. USA \u00e4r som banken inte din v\u00e4n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deras enorma st\u00f6dpaket p\u00e5 860mrdr dollar har ju till stor del stannat inom landet s\u00e5 lite bokf\u00f6ringstrixande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eller det faktum att EU aldrig importerat s\u00e5 mycket LNG fr\u00e5n Ryssland som under 2024 \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kasparov63\/status\/1876305510682775661?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ang\u00e5ende br\u00e4nderna i Malibu, Los Angeles, s\u00e5 var det klassikern or\u00f6rd skog d\u00e4r man inte rensade sly eller brandgator parat med en ny fullm\u00e4ktige som prioriterade ned brandf\u00f6rsvaret f\u00f6r annat kul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 fem (5) p\u00e5g\u00e5ende br\u00e4nder och f\u00f6r mig ser det ut som anlagt vilket det ocks\u00e5 till del verkar vara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1877649693548691790<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag gjorde n\u00e5gra \u00e5r under covid p\u00e5 teknisk enhet p\u00e5 kommun och av 400st var det kanske 40st som jobbade med k\u00e4rnuppdraget och \u00f6vriga f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte hitta p\u00e5 saker som r\u00e4ttf\u00e4rdigade deras l\u00f6n. Det var en absolut massiv administration och p\u00e5 den tiden var mantrat cykelbanor och parker, allt annat trodde chefer f\u00f6rvaltade sig sj\u00e4lvt utan budget. K\u00e4rnuppdraget var brokonstruktionerna och dom fick f\u00f6rfalla f\u00f6r budgeten var anorektisk \u2013 allt gick till cykelbanor och sen satt v\u00e4l anst\u00e4llda i administrativa m\u00f6ten typ halva arbetstiden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De tekniska anst\u00e4llda s\u00e5gs lite som ett n\u00f6dv\u00e4ndigt ont och h\u00f6lls r\u00e4tt korta. S\u00e5 de p\u00e5 kontoret som var \u201dn\u00e4rande\u201d (i brist p\u00e5 b\u00e4ttre ord) var helt f\u00f6rpassade till sidlinjen av alla t\u00e4rande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r jag b\u00f6rjade som civilingenj\u00f6r hos konsult i UK tidigt 2000-tal s\u00e5 var det civilingenj\u00f6rerna som best\u00e4mde och alla andra var st\u00f6dfunktioner. Sen kr\u00f6p n\u00e5n ny typ av management in d\u00e4r andra icke-tekniska b\u00f6rjade fatta beslut och civilingenj\u00f6rerna hade att r\u00e4tta sig. Man tappade en ENORM m\u00e4ngd vettighet p\u00e5 det \u00f6ver hela spelplanen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu exploderar ett raffinaderierna igen \u2013 UA dr\u00f6nar p\u00e5 \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/embed\/did:plc:oyzatboanf3omf2eievuwzwd\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3lfjtgduykc2e?id=7600768494455137<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r (minst) den 53 attacken mot ett raffinaderi som resulterar i stor eldboll och nu \u00e4r ju mattan av strategisk bombning \u00f6ver Ryssland lite som Tyskland 1944 och jag rapporterar inte l\u00e4ngre men ett raffinaderi har nyhetsv\u00e4rde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Faktum \u00e4r att Ukraina dr\u00f6nar s\u00f6nder ryska federationen just nu och det \u00e4r h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l varje dag \u2013 staber, ammunitionsf\u00f6rr\u00e5d, tillverkning, f\u00f6rl\u00e4ggningar, krigsmaterielf\u00f6rr\u00e5d, tillverkning av nyckelkomponenter, br\u00e4nsledep\u00e5er och inte minst oljeindustrin och t\u00e5gtransporterna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryssland monteras ned en del i taget och ekonomin g\u00e5r allt s\u00e4mre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1878100757175484847?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Br\u00e4nsle kan nog bli en bristvara framledes f\u00f6r UA har absolut gjort majbrasa av den ryska infrastrukturen f\u00f6r drivmedel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1876886847197962410?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt s\u00e5 var Gr\u00f6nlands-debaclet en GRU operation redan fr\u00e5n Trumps tidigare presidentskap \u2013 den forts\u00e4tter bara. Det hade man aldrig kunnat gissa (men det gjorde vi ig\u00e5r\u2026) \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/deangloster\/status\/1878133170488709174?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Och Kina ligger inte p\u00e5 latsidan,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Debaclet med det taiwanesiska f\u00f6retaget som producerade f\u00f6r och exporterade direkt till ryssland utan mellanhand var kinesiska f\u00f6retag som utgav sig f\u00f6r att vara det taiwanesiska f\u00f6retaget \u2013 snyggt att det avsl\u00f6jades s\u00e5 fort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1876312354792907254?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Och Kina bygger nu landstigningstonnage f\u00f6r invasion av Taiwan, lite slutf\u00f6rberedelse av det hela \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NK Bandhaubits nu i strid i Ukraina \u2013 det gick fort och rattas den av ryssar gick det mycket snabbare \u00e4n vad jag t\u00e4nkte mig. Viss risk f\u00f6r kinesiska stridsvagnar om ett tag om inte v\u00e4st s\u00e4tter gr\u00e4nser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dugin l\u00e4cker h\u00e4r Rysslands plan f\u00f6r att destabilisera EU \u2013 det \u00e4r faktiskt det vi ser s\u00e5 inga gissningar alls. EU_\u00c4R_UNDER_ATTACK!!!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ska det vara s\u00e5 sv\u00e5rt att g\u00f6ra som Finland och acceptera sakernas tillst\u00e5nd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

H\u00e4r har ni en till om min stora depp 2024 \u2013 l\u00e4get var minst sagt prek\u00e4rt och Tatarigami beskriver det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tatarigami_ua\/status\/1875272134408466799?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Men allt pekar \u00e5t r\u00e4tt h\u00e5ll \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-RU gasint\u00e4kter minskar kraftigt<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/beefeater_fella\/status\/1875468346625601876?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

-RU FAB anv\u00e4ndning har g\u00e5tt ned kraftigt<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/m0nstas\/status\/1875471330298228797?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

-60% dropp<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/m0nstas\/status\/1875108590455070816?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

-UA dr\u00f6nar hamn
https:\/\/x.com\/bayraktar_1love\/status\/1875501712724914531?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

-UA dr\u00f6nar Smolensk<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1875427729811669299?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

-Trembita \u2013 en billig massproducerad robot. RU klarar inte detta d\u00e5 korruptionen \u00e4r f\u00f6r h\u00f6g.
https:\/\/x.com\/bricktop_nafo\/status\/1875042286691561567?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alla pilar \u00e4r p\u00e5 gr\u00f6nt och pekar svagt upp\u00e5t sen h\u00f6r ni precis som jag ocks\u00e5 hissmusiken som \u00e4r lugnande och ser en ljusbl\u00e5 gryning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Golgatavandringen \u00e4r \u00f6ver men det kommer ta n\u00e5gra m\u00e5nader innan v\u00e4rldens experter f\u00f6rst\u00e5r det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sen kan s\u00e5klart v\u00e4st \u00e5terigen f\u00f6r tredje eller fj\u00e4rde g\u00e5ngen tv\u00e4rv\u00e4nda och sluta leverera men vi f\u00e5r ju g\u00e5 p\u00e5 det vi ser eller hur och det \u00e4r dags f\u00f6r ett d\u00f6dande hugg mot Ryssland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Val i Belarus snart \u2013 tror ni warstasche redan \u00e4r p\u00e5 plats?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I vanlig ordning, gillade ni inl\u00e4gget dela g\u00e4rna i era kanaler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jag \u00e4r ju som bekant sl\u00e4kting med General Patton via en champagneglad sekreterare s\u00e5 jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r ju lite hur t\u00e4nket 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