https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/ragnarbjartur.bsky.social<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nF\u00f6rluster av personal (KWIA = Killed & Wounded In Action) och utrustning:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n De ryska f\u00f6rlusterna av KWIA har sjunkit avsev\u00e4rt sedan \u00e5rsskiftet och trenden forts\u00e4tter sedan senaste genomg\u00e5ngen, men sett \u00f6ver hela kriget \u00e4r det fortfarande h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rluster och det h\u00e5ller sig just nu precis p\u00e5 genomsnittet. Det spekuleras i varf\u00f6r det g\u00e5r ner. N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller antalet sammandrabbningar ligger det p\u00e5 ungef\u00e4r samma niv\u00e5. Det \u00e4r fortfarande s\u00e5 att Ryssland tar sig sakta fram\u00e5t. Intensiteten i kriget \u00e4r allts\u00e5 inte s\u00e5 pass mycket l\u00e4gre att det kan f\u00f6rklasas av det. N\u00e5gra menar att Ryssland anfaller med f\u00e4rre soldater och det kan vara en f\u00f6rklaring i kombination med att de ist\u00e4llet kraftigt \u00f6kat antalet dr\u00f6nare. Det verkar som att det inte beh\u00f6vs inte lika m\u00e5nga soldater. En tr\u00e5kigare f\u00f6rklaring kan vara att Ukraina har sv\u00e5rare att sl\u00e5 tillbaka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller milit\u00e4r utrustning har \u00e4ven det minskat n\u00e5got den senaste tiden men totalt sett \u00e4r det fortfarande h\u00f6gt. Som vi f\u00e5r se l\u00e4ngre ner har d\u00e4remot typen av utrustning som Ryssland f\u00f6rlirar i Ukraina f\u00f6r\u00e4ndrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\nF\u00f6rluster av artilleri och MLRS<\/h3>\n\n\n\n F\u00f6rlusterna av artilleri har \u00e4ven det minskat n\u00e5got p\u00e5 senare tid, men det har varierat kraftigare under kriget och har inte heller minskat fullt s\u00e5 mycket. Det var en kraftig nedg\u00e5ng tidigare, men troligen har Nordkorea kommit till unds\u00e4ttning. Trenden \u00e4r oavsett p\u00e5 ned\u00e5tg\u00e5ende just nu men om det \u00e4r tillf\u00e4lligt kan man bara gissa sig till och det g\u00e4ller varf\u00f6r det g\u00e5r ner\u00e5t igen. Ryssland forts\u00e4tter anv\u00e4nda artilleri i ungef\u00e4r samma takt som tidigare. Stridsvagnar och pansarfordon<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Den ned\u00e5tg\u00e5ende trenden n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller stridsvagnar har p\u00e5g\u00e5tt l\u00e4nge \u00e4ven om det varierar lite och vi ligger nu p\u00e5 den l\u00e4gsta niv\u00e5n under hela kriget. Trenden verkar ha planat ut, men det beror p\u00e5 att det bara anv\u00e4nds n\u00e5gra enstaka stridsvagnar l\u00e4ngre. Det kan inte sjunka speciellt mycket mer. Vissa dagar \u00e4r det noll i den dagliga f\u00f6rlustrapporten. Man kan misst\u00e4nka att Ryssland har i stort sett slut p\u00e5 stridsvagnar. De har f\u00f6rst\u00e5s inte gott om dem men jag tror snarare att de \u00e4ndrat taktikt och sparar p\u00e5 dem. Det \u00e4r f\u00f6r kostsamt att f\u00e5 dem utslagna av billiga dr\u00f6nare. De g\u00e5nger de g\u00f6r st\u00f6rre mekanfall f\u00f6rlorar de ofta minst h\u00e4lften utan att de lyckas g\u00f6ra n\u00e5gra genombrott.
Jag misst\u00e4nker som sagt att man bytt taktik, kanske f\u00e5r vi se st\u00f6rre mekanfall l\u00e4ngre fram n\u00e4r de tror att de kan g\u00f6ra ett st\u00f6rre genombrott vid n\u00e5got frontavsnitt.<\/p>\n\n\n\nUAV (Shaheds mm) och luftv\u00e4rn<\/h3>\n\n\n\n N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller UAV ser vi n\u00e4stan en logaritmisk \u00f6kande kurva d\u00e4r antalet \u00f6kar kraftigt fr\u00e4mst fr\u00e5n \u00e5rsskiftet. Ryssland har uppenbart lyckats \u00f6ka tillverkningskapaciteten och det har f\u00f6rmodligen skett med stor hj\u00e4lp fr\u00e5n Kina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller luftv\u00e4rn \u00e4r det d\u00e4remot p\u00e5 ned\u00e5tg\u00e5ende. H\u00e4r tror jag det beror p\u00e5 att Ryssland har sv\u00e5rt att faktiskt tillverka i den takt de g\u00e5r \u00e5t. Dessutom anv\u00e4nds de \u00e4ven f\u00f6r att skydda platser inne i Ryssland som \u00e4r sv\u00e5ra att n\u00e5 f\u00f6r Ukraina. \u00c4ven h\u00e4r \u00e4r det annars v\u00e4ldigt f\u00e5 per dag och ofta ingen alls, det g\u00f6r att statistiken inte heller \u00e4r lika tillf\u00f6rlitlig n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka utl\u00e4sa n\u00e5gra trender.<\/p>\n\n\n\nLogistik, \u00f6vriga fordon, tankbilar mm<\/h3>\n\n\n\n L\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller logistik och ”mjuka” fordon har \u00e4ven den kurvan tidigare pekat upp\u00e5t och sakta \u00f6kat, men den trendeen har nu brutits och v\u00e4nt ner\u00e5t igen \u00e4ven om det fortfarande \u00e4r v\u00e4ldigt h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rluster. Det kan finnas flera anledningar till det, en h\u00e4nger i hop med minskat anv\u00e4ndande av stridsvagnar och pansarfordon. Det kr\u00e4vs inte lika m\u00e5nga underh\u00e5llsfordon i form av tankbilar, b\u00e4rgningsfordon mm. Skulle det vara s\u00e5 att Ryssland anv\u00e4nder f\u00e4rre soldater i sina anfall g\u00e4ller det f\u00f6rst\u00e5s \u00e4ven f\u00f6r dem. Det kan f\u00f6rst\u00e5s \u00e4ven vara s\u00e5 att de l\u00e4rt sig skydda sig b\u00e4ttre och att har de \u00f6verg\u00e5tt alltmer till l\u00e4ttare fordon kan de vara sv\u00e5rare att sl\u00e5 ut, \u00e4ven om det kr\u00e4vs fler av dem. Men som sagt, det \u00e4r fortfarande m\u00e5nga.KWIA och logistik, m\u00e5nads\u00f6versikt per \u00e5r<\/h3>\n\n\n\n En annan \u00f6versikt d\u00e4r det \u00e4r l\u00e4ttar att se hur det utvecklats, \u00f6verst har vi f\u00f6rlustern av soldater och \u00e4ven om det g\u00e5tt ner \u00e4r det \u00e4nd\u00e5 n\u00e4st h\u00f6gst f\u00f6r samma perioden som \u00f6vriga \u00e5r under kriget. H\u00e4r ser man \u00e4ven hur logistiken i form av vanliga ”mjuka” fordon har sett ut.<\/p>\n\n\n\nAntal sammandrabbningar<\/h3>\n\n\n\n N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller antalet stridsh\u00e4ndelser hade vi en topp vid ny\u00e5r, sen sj\u00f6nk det f\u00f6r att \u00f6ka igen och nu \u00e5terigen har det minskat lite. \u00d6verlag kan man nog s\u00e4ga att det inte \u00e4r en direkt tydlig trend utan att det snarare \u00e4r v\u00e4ldigt h\u00f6g aktivitet. <\/p>\n\n\n\nRatio ryska f\u00f6rluster av utrustning j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med Ukrainska<\/h3>\n\n\n\n Under hela kriget har Ryssland f\u00f6rlorat mer utrustning \u00e4n Ukraina. Nu under 2025 var det en kort period under maj och \u00e4ven bara f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra veckor sedan ist\u00e4llet tv\u00e4rtom. Just nu ligger ration under de senaste 30 dagarna p\u00e5 1,0. B\u00e5de sidor f\u00f6rlorar ungef\u00e4r lika mycket. <\/p>\n\n\n\nArtillery och dr\u00f6nare<\/h3>\n\n\n\n De ryska artilleranfallen har minskat n\u00e5got p\u00e5 slutet men ligger ungf\u00e4r p\u00e5 samma niv\u00e5 som den gjort under hela 2025. Den stora f\u00f6r\u00e4ndringen \u00e4r ist\u00e4llet dr\u00f6narna som \u00f6kat kraftigt. Vissa dagar \u00e4r vi \u00f6ver 6 000st och forts\u00e4tter det passeras det \u00e4ven som genomsnitt, men vi kan ana en minskad \u00f6kningstakt, ev. har de n\u00e5tt sin \u00f6vre gr\u00e4ns och det kommer att plana ut. Sj\u00e4lv misst\u00e4nker jag att det i s\u00e5 fall bara \u00e4r tillf\u00e4lligt. Dr\u00f6narna \u00e4r billiga och effektiva och med st\u00f6d fr\u00e5n Kina kan de nog tyv\u00e4rr forts\u00e4tta att \u00f6ka antalet. Det h\u00e4r sv\u00e5rt att f\u00e5 stopp p\u00e5 ocks\u00e5. Dr\u00f6nare kr\u00e4ver egentligen inte stora fabriker som Ukraina kan sl\u00e5 ut. D\u00e5 kanske chansen \u00e4r st\u00f6rre om man kan g\u00e5 mot ammunitionstillverkningen eller p\u00e5 de petrokemiska industrierna som de \u00e4r beroende av.<\/p>\n\n\n\nSummering<\/h2>\n\n\n\n Sedan f\u00f6rra g\u00e5ngen jag gick igenom statistiken har det inte h\u00e4nt speciellt mycket. Trenderna pekar \u00e5t ungef\u00e4r samma h\u00e5ll. Ryssland \u00f6kar anv\u00e4ndninge av b\u00e5de sj\u00e4lvmordsdr\u00f6nare vid fronten och n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller sina nattliga terroristattacker med Shaheds mm.
Minskningen av pansar mm. forts\u00e4tter liksom n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller f\u00f6rlusten av soldater, trots det forts\u00e4tter de att hela tiden g\u00f6ra sm\u00e5 framsteg vid fronten. N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller utrustningen f\u00f6rlorar b\u00e5de sidor ungef\u00e4r lika mycket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Det ser allts\u00e5 inte s\u00e5 v\u00e4ldigt ljust ut f\u00f6r Ukraina. Tidigare har man bytt land mot stora ryska f\u00f6rluster och \u00e4ven det fortfarande \u00e4r h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rluster ser det tyv\u00e4rr ut som att det ser ungef\u00e4r likadant ut f\u00f6r Ukraina. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Det som faktiskt har h\u00e4nt sedan sist och som d\u00e4remot \u00e4r v\u00e4ldigt positivt h\u00f6r inte i hopp med n\u00e5got av det jag redovisat ovan. Det handlar f\u00f6rst\u00e5s om att Ukraina \u00e5terigen b\u00f6rjat anfalla p\u00e5 djupet i Ryssland och har lyckats sl\u00e5 mot b\u00e5de oljeraffinaderier, dep\u00e5er, pumpstationer och fabriker. Det \u00e4r f\u00f6rst\u00e5r inget som ger direkt omedelbar verkan (\u00e4ven br\u00e4nslebrist f\u00f6rst\u00e5s f\u00f6rsv\u00e5rar) men det \u00e4r n\u00e5got p\u00e5 sikt som kommer att f\u00f6rst\u00f6ra den redan br\u00e4ckliga ryska ekonomin och sl\u00e5 h\u00e5rt p\u00e5 alla grenar d\u00e5 brist och stigade br\u00e4nslepriser p\u00e5verkar precis allt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kan Ukraina forts\u00e4tta och kanske \u00e4ven \u00f6ka takten kan det bli avg\u00f6rande till slut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nyheter, kriget i Ukraina<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":805,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2656","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ukraina"],"yoast_head":"\n
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