{"id":2890,"date":"2025-10-01T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/?p=2890"},"modified":"2025-10-02T13:25:24","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T11:25:24","slug":"ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-1-oktober-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-1-oktober-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraina daglig uppdatering 1 Oktober 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

F\u00e5r b\u00f6rja med att utropa att Operation Sl\u00e4cka Lyset har tjuvstartat \u2013 det b\u00f6rjade med att RU bombade n\u00e5t i Ukraina s\u00e5 Zelensky beordrade att dra ned rullgardinen i Belgorod<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Danmark har l\u00e4st bloggen och \u00f6kar hotbilden mot sin energiinfrastruktur. Det \u00e4r smart inte bara f\u00f6r att vi sagt att s\u00e5 blir det utan ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6r att ett nytt operationsm\u00f6nster fr\u00e5n Ryssland \u00e4r att vederg\u00e4lla mjukt mot Europa samma som Ukraina g\u00f6r i RU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mark My Words \u2013 i \u00e5r och vinter kommer det bli en hel del str\u00f6mavbrott i Europa om kriget fortfarande p\u00e5g\u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/energywatch.com\/EnergyNews\/Policy___Trading\/article18587979.ece<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi har dock lite sm\u00e5tur f\u00f6r det \u00e4r ju klimatkris s\u00e5 vi kommer ha en mycket varm vinter i \u00e5r \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi har en h\u00f6gst positiv bias n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller UA rapporteringen och hyllar minsta lilla samst h\u00e4cklar ryska framg\u00e5ngar \u2013 s\u00e5 ska det vara men ibland f\u00e5r vi ta en reality check ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enligt mina tidigare inl\u00e4gg fr\u00e5n h\u00f6sten 2024 s\u00e5 har Ukraina en offensiv reserv som nu idag h\u00f6sten 2025 nog \u00e4r r\u00e4tt slagkraftig, men dom beh\u00f6ver full assymetrisk krigf\u00f6ring f\u00f6r att kunna vinna kriget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi har s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt sett 65% assymetrisk krigf\u00f6ring enligt mina empiriska v\u00e4rldsledande labbtester och har en bit kvar att g\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryssland har ocks\u00e5 en strategisk offensiv reserv dom inte visat \u00e4nnu och har mer gas vid fronterna fr\u00e5n befintliga f\u00f6rband d\u00e4r. Dom har precis gjort en st\u00f6rre f\u00f6rflyttning och det blir v\u00e4l en pistolduell vid Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka-Novopavlivka, och ett f\u00f6rs\u00f6k till offensiv vid S\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00f6dra fronten har vi varnat f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge \u2013 dom f\u00f6rbanden har inte varit s\u00e4rdeles aktiva och s\u00e5ledes p\u00e5fyllda och utvilade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu har RU dragit bort sina insatsstyrkor fr\u00e5n Dneprfronten men inte f\u00f6rsvagat vid Dnepr \u2013 och man m\u00e5ste inte korsa Dnepr vid Kherson eller hur \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Norr om Khakovka kan man snudd p\u00e5 g\u00e5 \u00f6ver till den v\u00e4stra sidan idag \u2013 det vet ni om ni lusl\u00e4st inl\u00e4ggen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e5got som oroat mig r\u00e4tt l\u00e4nge \u00e4r till exempel nedan \u2013 p\u00e5 papperet har Ukraina fler brigader \u00e4n anfallande RU dito och elitf\u00f6rband, och \u00e4nd\u00e5 backar dom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nu bekr\u00e4ftade precis UA att bemanningen fortfarande \u00e4r s\u00e5d\u00e4r och efter Vuhledar f\u00f6rstod vi att vissa brigader var nere p\u00e5 300st i bemanning \u2013 f\u00f6rmodligen l\u00e5g numer\u00e4r p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbanden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Andra \u00e4r att RU har hittat kombon som fungerar med FAB, dr\u00f6nare, kill-chain, digitalt slagf\u00e4lt, r\u00f6rligt skytte och lite pansar. Det svider att ligga i f\u00f6rsvar helt enkelt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraina m\u00e5ste vara r\u00f6rliga och ge upp terr\u00e4ng innan FAB hittar dom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky bekr\u00e4ftade stor \u00f6verd\u00f6dlighet hos RU nyligen s\u00e5 taktiken dr\u00e4nerar RU liv men s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt h\u00e5ller dom j\u00e4mna steg med rekrytering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vinner man kriget p\u00e5 att g\u00e5 bak\u00e5t?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nej naturligtvis inte s\u00e5 Ukraina k\u00f6per v\u00e4l tid till \u00f6vriga delar i den assymetriska krigf\u00f6ringen och det var v\u00e4l innan sommaren vi hittade deras nya f\u00f6rsvarslinje som byggs utanf\u00f6r det RU avser er\u00f6vra \u2013 pragmatiska \u00e4r dom iallafall och r\u00e4knar inte med v\u00e5rt st\u00f6d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men det \u00e4r r\u00e4tt meningsl\u00f6st f\u00f6r offensiven vid S\u00f6dra fronten \u00e4r redan utanf\u00f6r den linjen \u2013 RU kommer inte stanna vid sina uppgivna anfallsm\u00e5l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Genomg\u00e5ng fronterna nedan men f\u00f6rst n\u00e5gra bilder p\u00e5 RU f\u00f6rluster, barbarer g\u00e5r ned\u00e5t och det g\u00f6r h\u00e5rda fordon ocks\u00e5. Att RU kombinerar det med att ta alltmer mark \u00e4r lite oroande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I norr har vi Kupiansk som ser ut s\u00e5 h\u00e4r<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Och UA har nog redan b\u00f6rjat l\u00e4mna, f\u00f6r RU gjorde en snabb framst\u00f6t h\u00e4r<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Lyman ser ocks\u00e5 d\u00e5ligt ut \u2013 RU \u00e4r snudd p\u00e5 att sk\u00e4ra av omr\u00e5det och d\u00e5 \u00e5terst\u00e5r en retr\u00e4tt \u00f6ver vattendraget<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Siversk inte heller bra, h\u00e4r har det r\u00f6rt sig rej\u00e4lt i det tysta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Vill h\u00f6ra vad Gregg har att s\u00e4ga om Myrnohrad f\u00f6r det ser ut som att RU kommit dit nu, RU \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 inne i s\u00f6dra delen av Pokrovsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag tycker det \u00e4r tidiga tecken p\u00e5 en f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstrid ut ur orten nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sammantaget s\u00e5 forts\u00e4tter Ukraina att ge upp dominerande terr\u00e4ng och norra Luhansk \u00e4r ett omr\u00e5de dom aldrig kan \u00e5terta med mindre \u00e4n att Ryssland faller som land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU kommer korsa Dnepr vid n\u00e5got tillf\u00e4lle, och Ukraina har mycket lite p\u00e5 v\u00e4stra sidan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dneprfronten \u00e4r RU svaga i och norra fronten ocks\u00e5 samt att Ukraina har f\u00f6r vana att klippa till p\u00e5 flankerna men vid alla aktiva fronter backar dom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e5 ser det ut i handling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det strategiska dr\u00f6narkriget g\u00e5r naturligtvis lysande men nu har USA g\u00e5tt ut med att Kina avser anfalla Taiwan 2027 och att krigsf\u00f6rberedelserna p\u00e5g\u00e5r f\u00f6r fullt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Antingen har tidsplanen b\u00f6rjat glida eller s\u00e5 har Ryssland f\u00f6r avsikt att eskalera f\u00f6r Kina beh\u00f6ver ett passiviserat Europa n\u00e4r dom p\u00e5b\u00f6rjar sitt krig i Asien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e5nt h\u00e4r ser jag som en stor m\u00f6jlighet \u2013 klipp till Ryssland nu innan Kina anfallit Taiwan, varenda \u00d6B i Europa s\u00e4ger samma sak – \u00f6verv\u00e5ld \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Faller sk1tlandet ihop och Kina inte har hunnit komma ig\u00e5ng \u00e4r det h\u00e4r slutet p\u00e5 v\u00e5r tids stora globala konflikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5 Substack \u2013 finns det fortfarande chans att bli prenumeranter (subscriber) och f\u00f6r mig v\u00e4rdefullt om ni vill bli betalande s\u00e5dana. Allt content postas fritt till alla men det tar lik f\u00f6rbaskat v\u00e4ldigt mycket tid att skriva ihop, kostar 80kr i m\u00e5naden och d\u00e5 hoppar ni \u00f6ver en middag p\u00e5 McDonalds s\u00e5 det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 h\u00e4lsosamt \u2013 Johan No.1 g\u00f6r er friskare ocks\u00e5 \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fortsatt uppskattning f\u00f6r sidan johanno1.se emottages alltid tacksamt och det finns en QR kod f\u00f6r \u00e4ndam\u00e5let ni absolut inte f\u00e5r missa d\u00e5 vi har kostnader samt att det finns en donationssida med l\u00e4nkar till Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 ukraine och andra organisationer vi l\u00e4rt oss \u00f6ver tid \u00e4r legita och v\u00e5gar donera till.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gillade ni inl\u00e4gget \u2013 dela g\u00e4rna i era kanaler och framf\u00f6rallt, dela g\u00e4rna den engelska versionen till personer ni tror kan uppskatta inl\u00e4gg och kommentarer dom tidigare inte har kunnat l\u00e4sa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

F\u00e5r b\u00f6rja med att utropa att Operation Sl\u00e4cka Lyset har tjuvstartat \u2013 det b\u00f6rjade med att RU bombade n\u00e5t i […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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