{"id":3256,"date":"2025-11-05T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/?p=3256"},"modified":"2025-11-06T06:48:36","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T05:48:36","slug":"ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-5-november-202","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-5-november-202\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraina daglig uppdatering 5 November 202"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jag har varit lite fr\u00e5nvarande d\u00e5 jag dels filar p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra l\u00e4ngre inl\u00e4gg ni kommer gilla skarpt men ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker best\u00e4mma mig f\u00f6r vad som p\u00e5g\u00e5r vid fronterna \u2013 \u00e4r ju noll po\u00e4ng att sj\u00f6s\u00e4tta ett v\u00e4rldsledande analytiskt m\u00e4stertverk som Budanov s\u00e5gar itu och br\u00e4nner upp veckan efter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fr\u00e5gan nu \u00e4r allts\u00e5 om Ukraina kommer p\u00e5b\u00f6rja\/har p\u00e5b\u00f6rjat en bredare offensiv eller om det \u00e4r lokala motoffensiver fortfarande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00d6 om Pokrovsk har UA motoffensiv blivit ben\u00e4mnd \u201dDobrophilia\u201d och har p\u00e5g\u00e5tt i \u00f6ver en m\u00e5nad. Det \u00e4r kvalificerade f\u00f6rband och RU genomf\u00f6r \u00e4ven dom motanfall i omr\u00e5det. Dom har inte direkt k\u00f6rt \u00f6ver det ryska f\u00f6rsvaret om man s\u00e4ger s\u00e5 \u00e4ven om det absolut g\u00e5r \u00e5t r\u00e4tt h\u00e5ll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag v\u00e5gar inte sia i antal RU brigader som stridit d\u00e4r men det har varit r\u00f6rigt och d\u00f6dligt f\u00f6r b\u00e4gge \u2013 mer f\u00f6r RU. M\u00e5nga av DPRs brigader r\u00f6k d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Pokrovsk har GUR anfallit f\u00f6r att stabilisera situationen och till och med luftlands\u00e4ttning har anv\u00e4nts \u2013 det h\u00e4r har vi l\u00e4nge diskuterat att UA har den f\u00f6rm\u00e5gan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r lite annorlunda \u00e4n det ryska kryckskyttet och kr\u00e4lskyttet eller hur att svepa in p\u00e5 helikopter, dom m\u00e5ste vara oerh\u00f6rt avundsjuka d\u00e4r dom haltar fram i gyttjan\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tidigare motanfall i Kupiansk misslyckades men nu g\u00e5r telegramkanalerna heta att det skett ytterligare motanfall, och Zelensky eller Sirsky har g\u00e5tt ut med att det kommer vidare motanfall i b\u00e5de Pokrovsk och Kupiansk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r Ukraina anf\u00f6ll i Kursk f\u00f6regicks det av veckor av minr\u00f6jning men jag gissar att det \u00e4r mycket mindre f\u00e4ltarbeten i dessa omr\u00e5den \u2013 och att dom \u00e4r de som \u00e4r mest akuta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ni vet om ni l\u00e4st inl\u00e4ggen att Ukraina har en strategisk offensiv reserv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ni vet ocks\u00e5 att b\u00e4gge h\u00e5ller tillbaka sina mekaniserade f\u00f6rband.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enligt tidigare har Ryssland genom kinas f\u00f6rsorg f\u00e5tt ordning p\u00e5 sitt digitala slagf\u00e4lt och kill-chain vilket var mycket olyckligt – det \u00e4r ett 20-30km brett omr\u00e5de vid fronterna som \u00e4r direkt oattraktivt att h\u00e4nga i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De ryska marktrupperna \u00e4r samma kaos som tidigare bara med mindre mekaniserade f\u00f6rband som ligger och v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 sin tur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De mekanfall som genomf\u00f6rts av RU p\u00e5 senare tid slutar alltid i mycket d\u00f6d \u2013 ingen direkt f\u00f6rm\u00e5geh\u00f6jning d\u00e4r alls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi vet att Ukraina f\u00e5tt extremt mycket h\u00e5rda fordon, mer flyg, har eget dr\u00f6narvapen, f\u00e5tt minr\u00f6jningsutrustning till f\u00f6rbannelse, m\u00f6rkerstridsmedel och har f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga till amfibiestrid och luftlands\u00e4ttning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speciellt i m\u00f6rkerstrid torde Ukraina excellera d\u00e5 RU markf\u00f6rband n\u00e4stan helt saknar den f\u00f6rm\u00e5gan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ja, kinas digitala slagf\u00e4lt har den men inte markf\u00f6rbanden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu har UA anti-dr\u00f6nar-dr\u00f6nare ute i lite olika form, exemplet \u00e4r kanske inte optimalt men dom finns tillg\u00e4ngliga nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r naturligtvis n\u00e4sta steg p\u00e5 den st\u00e4ndiga whack-a-molen, anti-dr\u00f6nar-dr\u00f6nare. Kan UA under n\u00e5gra m\u00e5nader f\u00e5 ett \u00f6vertag i det s\u00e5 kommer dom kunna utnyttja sin kraftigt b\u00e4ttre f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga hos marktrupperna att \u00e5stadkomma f\u00f6r\u00e4ndring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt har motanfallen svidit f\u00f6r UA \u2013 dom tar ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rluster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU anfaller vid alla fronter, \u00f6verallt, samtidigt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alla RU frontchefer verkar ha f\u00e5tt order om offensiv och det strids vid norra fronten, norra Luhansk, Donetskfronten (m\u00f6rkaste Donbass), vid s\u00f6dra fronten och ni kanske minns att jag meddelade att RU korsat Dnepr som ingen ville k\u00e4nnas vid, ni b\u00f6r ta till er det som skrivs och inte b\u00f6rja ifr\u00e5gas\u00e4tta hela tiden bara f\u00f6r att alla andra inte skriver om det \u00e4nnu \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

RU har f\u00f6rsvagat vid Dneprfronten d\u00e4r alla insatsstyrkorna flyttats till Pokrovskomr\u00e5det, endast 98th AD kvar men d\u00e5 bara tv\u00e5 brigader vad jag kan se.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dnepr har aldrig varit svagare \u00e4n s\u00e5 h\u00e4r sedan h\u00f6sten 2022 n\u00e4r USA stoppade Zalihzny fr\u00e5n att vinna hela kriget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Krim \u00e4r dessutom f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpat redan \u2013 LV d\u00e4rnere \u00e4r utrotningshotade djur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraina har alltid en plan f\u00f6r offensiv, det hade dom h\u00f6sten 2024 ocks\u00e5 men Trump saboterade den precis som Biden saboterade allt innan dess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Har Ukraina slutat lyssna p\u00e5 USA och slutat meddela stridsplaner till sina allierade \u2013 vi f\u00e5r innerligt hoppas det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU anfaller \u00f6verallt vilket betyder att dom f\u00f6rbrukar resurser s\u00e5 in i helskotta, och Ukrainas strategiska dr\u00f6narkrig drar ocks\u00e5 ned p\u00e5 resurserna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det som avg\u00f6r \u00e4r ju om RU \u00f6verstr\u00e4ckt sig eller om v\u00e5ra v\u00e4nner UA kan g\u00e5 ifr\u00e5n att vara reaktiva till att bli proaktiva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Pokrovsk strider nu ett Rangerregemente och GUR s\u00e5 man har sl\u00e4ngt in det b\u00e4sta man har.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det h\u00e4r \u00e4r krigets viktigaste m\u00e5nader f\u00f6r om Ukraina upprepar v\u00e5roffensiven 2023 eller RU lyckas h\u00e5lla j\u00e4mna steg och plugga h\u00e5len kan det h\u00e4r kriget ta slut p\u00e5 ett f\u00f6r oss oattraktivt s\u00e4tt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steg tv\u00e5 \u00e4r att s\u00e5 fort det b\u00f6rjar g\u00e5 \u00e5t helvete f\u00f6r bunkerdv\u00e4rgen s\u00e5 kommer han gallskrika om eldupph\u00f6r, och Trump kommer kr\u00e4va det p\u00e5 dagen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e5 g\u00e4ller det f\u00f6r Europa att st\u00f6tta Ukraina hela v\u00e4gen in i m\u00e5l f\u00f6r ett eldupph\u00f6r \u00e4r det v\u00e4rsta som skulle kunna h\u00e4nda, speciellt om Ukraina har framdrivning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men jo, RU har precis g\u00e5tt ut brett att dom inringat UA i Pokrovsk och Kupiansk s\u00e5 det vore en snygg sm\u00e4ll f\u00f6r den ryska moralen att klippa tillbaka stenh\u00e5rt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r mig \u00e4r det f\u00f6r sv\u00e5rt att se genom dimman just nu \u2013 Ukraina \u00e4r f\u00f6rmodligen h\u00e5rt tr\u00e4ngda i b\u00e4gge omr\u00e5dena och jag gissar att GURs inhopp var tvunget f\u00f6r att stabilisera situationen s\u00e5 man inte stod d\u00e4r med n\u00e5gra brigader fastl\u00e5sta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kommer det st\u00f6rre motanfall kan det signalera att Ukraina v\u00e4ljer att ta initiativet \u2013 RU b\u00f6rjar tydligen k\u00e4nna lukten av dieselmotorer som varvas i skogarna p\u00e5 motsatt sida f\u00e4ltet f\u00f6r dom gallskriker p\u00e5 telegram. Men det har dom gjort tidigare i h\u00f6stas och inget h\u00e4nde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r n\u00e4stan lite l\u00e4skigt men n\u00e5gra hundra tusen ukrainska skytte st\u00e5r mellan fred i v\u00e5r tid och en global konflikt \u2013 eftersom Kina inte kommit ig\u00e5ng och RU inte genomf\u00f6rt n\u00e4sta eskalering s\u00e5 kan det h\u00e4r nog g\u00e5 att sl\u00e4cka fortfarande OM Ukraina n\u00e5r framg\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speciellt om kommande finanskris lyckas styras mot Kina s\u00e5 dom f\u00e5r ta den stora sm\u00e4llen och tappar sugen p\u00e5 att f\u00f6ra \u00f6verfallskrig f\u00f6r dom \u00e4r hungriga ist\u00e4llet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad Europa g\u00f6r och inte g\u00f6r h\u00e4r skulle jag vilja p\u00e5st\u00e5 \u00e4r helt avg\u00f6rande nu n\u00e4r USA backat ur – s\u00e5 vi avg\u00f6r faktiskt v\u00e5ra barns framtid kommande halv\u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r l\u00e4tt att gl\u00f6mma att det h\u00e4r \u00e4r soldater som kanske stridit sedan 2022 och som tillbringar ett halv\u00e5r i taget i en dr\u00f6nar-bisv\u00e4rm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r helt otroligt hur pass sur den ukrainska folksj\u00e4len \u00e4r p\u00e5 Ryssland f\u00f6r v\u00e4ldigt m\u00e5nga krig har slutat l\u00e5ngt innan man gjort f\u00f6rs\u00f6k nummer 10 att kn\u00e4cka ryggen p\u00e5 sin magnituder starkare motst\u00e5ndare (Ryssland + Kina) och bara ser tidigare motg\u00e5ngar som nyttig l\u00e4rpeng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 l\u00e4tt att gl\u00f6mma bort att ryska laget \u00e4r en mosaik av arm\u00e9chefer som g\u00f6r s\u00e5 gott dom kan och det enda dom visat sig vara riktigt d\u00e5liga p\u00e5 \u00e4r snabba kast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6rmodligen kommer det digitala slagf\u00e4ltet visa sig vara svagt n\u00e4r det blir mycket r\u00f6relse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r precis som med marktruppernas malande enkelt att logga fasta m\u00e5l och s\u00e4tta en FAB i dom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r en kvalificerad gissning att RU styrka \u00e4r nu under deras egen offensiv d\u00e5 allt \u00e4r f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gbart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sen har UA visat sig kapabla att strida med \u201dcombined arms warfare\u201d och dom har nu kommit i ordning med bef\u00e4lskedjan och strukturen som var deras stora svaghet \u2013 att Sirsky skulle k\u00f6ra micromanagement p\u00e5 precis allt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deras offensiva strategiska reserver har ocks\u00e5 resurssatts och har personal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mitt stalltips \u00e4r att det \u00e4r m\u00f6rkerstriden som kommer visa sig vara UA stora f\u00f6rdel denna v\u00e4ndan OM dom kan neutralisera kinas digitala slagf\u00e4lt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men det \u00e4r ett sm\u00e4rre helvete att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka f\u00f6ra strid i dr\u00f6narm\u00e4ttat omr\u00e5de och sen \u00e4r strid i ort det v\u00e4rsta som finns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag trodde f\u00f6r m\u00e5nader sedan att den RU anfallskilen v\u00e4ster om floden Oskil skulle k\u00f6ras \u00f6ver utan problem, skytte p\u00e5 fel sida en flod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det faktum att det inte gjort det och att GUR har problem i Pokrovsk visar hur pass sv\u00e5rhanterat denna nya dr\u00f6narkigsmilj\u00f6 \u00e4r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r det \u00e4r inte kryckskyttet eller kr\u00e4lskyttet som g\u00f6r v\u00e5ldsamt motst\u00e5nd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi kan skatta oss lyckliga om Ukraina tar offret s\u00e5 vi skall slippa det f\u00f6r jag tror inte att vi hade gjort speciellt bra ifr\u00e5n oss i denna nya stridsmilj\u00f6 faktiskt \u2013 vi hade f\u00e5tt en betydligt brantare inl\u00e4rningskurva och v\u00e5ra regeringar hade ocks\u00e5 tvingats f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka f\u00e4kta bort den fulla ryska subversiva verksamheten n\u00e4r brigader pulveriseras tidigt i den inl\u00e4rningskurvan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det vore ju l\u00e4mpligt om Ukraina kunde reda ut det h\u00e4r \u00e5t oss f\u00f6r vi verkar faktiskt inte kunna komma i ordning med mindre \u00e4n att det sm\u00e4ller \u2013 min europeiska sj\u00e4lvbild b\u00f6rjar bli aningen stukad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU har nyligen g\u00e5tt ut med att Ukraina fortfarande \u00e4r p\u00e5 banan att bli fullv\u00e4rdiga medlemmar i EU vilket \u00e4r tacksamt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin har iallafall satsat allt p\u00e5 r\u00f6tt, m\u00e5ste br\u00e4nnas ohyggligt med personal och resurser p\u00e5 att anfalla exakt \u00f6verallt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dom avser naturligtvis brygga det med mobilisering men n\u00e5nstans finns det en l\u00e5gpunkt och om det vi h\u00f6r st\u00e4mmer \u00e4r soldaterna vid fronterna inte s\u00e5 pigga p\u00e5 ryska f\u00f6rsvarsmakten l\u00e4ngre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deserteringar och orderv\u00e4gran finns det gott om exempel p\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyv\u00e4rr verkade det som att FSB nosade upp n\u00e4sta f\u00f6rs\u00f6k till palatskupp ocks\u00e5 det var ute nyligen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men kunde alla -stans och n\u00e5gra delrepubliker f\u00f6rklara krig ocks\u00e5 s\u00e5 kanske det kan g\u00e5?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men det g\u00f6r dom v\u00e4l inte med mindre \u00e4n att det ser ut som att Ukraina vinner kriget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Krigets viktigaste m\u00e5nader som sagt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jag har varit lite fr\u00e5nvarande d\u00e5 jag dels filar p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra l\u00e4ngre inl\u00e4gg ni kommer gilla skarpt men ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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