{"id":379,"date":"2025-02-28T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-28T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/?p=379"},"modified":"2025-05-25T14:21:42","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T12:21:42","slug":"ukraine-weekly-update-28th-february-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/ukraine-weekly-update-28th-february-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine Weekly Update 28th February 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Update<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Mechanized-lions<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1894378867218907357<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sea Lions<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1894758609935839446<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Never Forget<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/horia85\/status\/1893780521278153066<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And a beautiful film of russian cavalry – if someone still thought this was mechanized warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/PStyle0ne1\/status\/1894381508334407830<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it gets better, here is a group from the crutch-platoon storming over the snow-covered fields with fire support from a \u201ccrawler\u201d- shooter or similar. Has this combination ever been seen before in any conflict, ever \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(yes, the misery is not lost on me at all here, probably forced mobilization, raped and abused, managed to survive an assault against all odds and now in bad shape sent across the fields again \u2013 worst ticket of all in this war).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/banderafella\/status\/1894029073673806253<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have due to the occasion watched numerous clips posted from the early days of the war and the impact of all of this on the civilian population – it took me down a fair bit. It is unbelievable what the Ukrainian people have endured during three years and we have not yet reached the end. It is after the end of the beginning – we have entered the last phase of this war (Churchills great words didn\u2019t fit in \ud83e\udd2c).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, sometime 2025 this is over for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why and have you not told us this before since 2022 you say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, everytime it started to go well for Ukraine, Biden pulled away the rug and torpedoed them but that is not there anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From what we have seen red cards and geographical limits are gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war-winning support package just arrived from EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Ukraine have defeated the last indirect fire support RU had left \u2013 the dangerous FAB bombs, the russian equivalence of JDAMS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ukraina also have the advantage in their digital battlefield, target identification to kill chain, drone warfare, trained units, quality of APC, IFV and MBTs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They now got the fighters they needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And have just commenced offensive operations again on the 6th<\/sup> February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A bit in silence they are recovering Toretsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And have trapped a group of north Koreans that are looking hungrily at each other now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ukraina will win on the battlefield this year if west keep the material deliveries up and do not prevent Ukraina from fighting this as they see fit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And done leak the battle plans to Russia of course and stop ammunition deliveries as punishment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it looks like we are past all those actions primarily USA but also Germany thought rightful and honourable and the rest of west did not protest much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is my view that future school children will read about this week in the history books, not only about Johan No.1, but also Ukraine and Trumps train-crash of a peace negotiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the 24th<\/sup> the leaders of the west rallied in Kiev and it was a pre-meeting fight in the corridor over who should give Ukraine the biggest explosives package and then get to stand closest to Zelensky on the group picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What a difference to Zelenskys humiliating begging trip to USA this September to convince Biden, and the meeting with Mango Mussolini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or the NATO meeting 2023 where Ben Wallace learned the consequences of calling Zelensky \u201cungrateful\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have bled for us for three long years and the least we can do is to treat them with respect and give them what they need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, they keep us safe \u2013 imagine the horror if Ukraine accepts Trumps trap, hold elections, becomes pro-russian, a million old soldiers flod Europe as our new unstoppable mafia and Russia puts their million man army on the border of the Baltic states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each country needs to vote to get our own sons killed and Putins parties will run interference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Churchill of our time and a few hundred thousand infantry in eastern Ukraina stand between us and that scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europes safety is now at stake – nobody elses, and at last the leaders of EU have realized this. For long they thought the worst that could happen was that Ukraina also would accept peace just like Russia wanted instead of running their own offensives refusing to meet at the negotiating table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the weekend and early week Zelensky started to address Trumps \u201cpeace negotiation\u201d that was more extortion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

He then confirmed that his relation with Trump is at an all time low in some interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Macron very frenchy slapped Trump lightly but very quick in his meeting with him \u2013 glorious from King Macron that played his role well. If you have read med you know I have defended Macron for a fair while against the worst attacks \u2013 this is why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/embed\/did:plc:oyzatboanf3omf2eievuwzwd\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3liwowwveg22r?id=9915961223374214<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Towards mid-week it was clear that Ukraina would sign the \u201cmineral-deal\u201d that had the word \u201cbinding\u201d in it when the wording leaked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it was a letter of intent tops and Ukraine signature on that meaningless other than a symbolical victory for Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He made promises on video that will be hard to break without exposing him and said \u201cUkraine will have the right to fight on as they want\u201d \u2013 which means firstly it is what Ukraine wants and the USA will not stop them like before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is a positive in all this and not sure in this absolut ant-hill of stuff that happened over the last two week was determining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky is also today Friday in US and the rumour is that Trump tried to cancel the meeting but Zelensky didn\u2019t get the memo \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also know Putins plan as Zapad 25 is on \u2013 for Europe this means that in September Russia would attempt their landgrab of some hectares in the eastern part of the Baltic states just to test NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Putin has laid the groundwork with Belarus whose defence forces been trained by Wagner since summer 2023. At the start of the war they were 100k on paper but the tip of the spear 15k or similar \u2013 probably better today. Wagner is between 3000 \u2013 13000, I am not sure how many are left.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has prepared to army corps and total 150 000 according to Ukraine. We know they channel better equipment and units are built up around veterans with work experience of war 2025 style.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baltic states started their defensive structures along the border in February this year, got tiny armies and EU have negligible forces there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the reality for EU come September provided Ukraine has not managed something decisive in their country before then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forget a cease fire and peace keeping troops \u2013 when have peace keeping troops ever defended something?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They just say war was not part of the mandate and that it is no peace to protect anymore and leave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The clauses in the treaties are always vague enough for the parties signing them to not have to join when the worst happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nobody even talks of the Budapest memorandum today and read it \u2013 the text is a mater piece in playing with words so nobody broke it by not joining the war 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think EU has understood this now at last and will allow Ukraine to fight this war the way they intended to since 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lot more to come and the pieces are in play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The swedish battalion somewhere in the forests in the Baltics<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/NATOMNBLatvia\/status\/1893771303502446782<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t miss out on the legendary Fredagsfylla today on johanno1.se, you miss out at your own risk and it will definitely blow your socks of.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you appreciated the post, share it in your channels if you like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Would you like to join the best comment section since star wars with crazy drunk posting o Fridays \u2013 johanno1.se. It is no longer just me talking it up on Bluesky and then sitting there alone, lots of competent content being posted there, apart from on a Friday early evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Substack you can join a paid subscription and it is great to see that some appreciates the content, see the hard work behind it and have taken the step over to paid subscription \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Update Mechanized-lions https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1894378867218907357 Sea Lions https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1894758609935839446 Never Forget https:\/\/twitter.com\/horia85\/status\/1893780521278153066 And a beautiful film of russian cavalry – if someone still […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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