{"id":4035,"date":"2026-02-16T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/?p=4035"},"modified":"2026-02-17T08:56:52","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T07:56:52","slug":"ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-16-february-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-16-february-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraina daglig uppdatering 16 February 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ukraina genomf\u00f6r just nu en offensiv vid 4-5 frontavsnitt och den startade precis n\u00e4r Elon Musk st\u00e4ngde av Starlink f\u00f6r ryssarna, vi diskuterade det i sista UA inl\u00e4gget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Jag har en misstanke om att det mest g\u00e4ller Zaporizha, att stabilisera fronten och att det sker i samr\u00e5d med USA men vi f\u00e5r se hur det utvecklas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraina h\u00e5ller helt tyst och ryska k\u00e4llor absolut gallskriker s\u00e5 det verkar g\u00e5 mycket bra, och vi vet sedan tidigare att n\u00e4r Ukraina h\u00e5ller tyst r\u00f6r det p\u00e5 sig i undervegetationen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e5gon som k\u00e4nner att Elon kunde st\u00e4ngt av Starlink tidigare f\u00f6r ryssarna?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6rst\u00e5r ni nu vad USA gjorde s\u00e5 fort det fick f\u00f6r bra f\u00f6r Ukraina, Elon har v\u00e4l st\u00e4ngt av Starlink f\u00f6r Ukraina vid minst 2-3 tillf\u00e4llen f\u00f6rmodligen fler n\u00e4r det gick f\u00f6r bra. Iallafall en g\u00e5ng var f\u00f6r man\u00f6verbrigadernas markstrid n\u00e4r dom hade framdrivning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sen har dom gett Ukraina felaktig information som dom agerade p\u00e5 och dom har stoppat dom n\u00e4r det gick f\u00f6r bra, allts\u00e5 bett dom avbryta d\u00e4r hot om avbrutet st\u00f6d var utpressningen f\u00f6r att tvinga Ukraina att inte vinna kriget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA har ocks\u00e5 slutat ge Ukraina m\u00e5luttag och information men UA har egna satelliter nu och tydligen har Frankrike \u00f6kat till 70% av den informationen som ges till Ukraina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hade Ukraina f\u00e5tt strida p\u00e5 lika villkor hade det h\u00e4r kriget redan varit vunnet det vet vi sedan tidigare, jag skall inte tr\u00f6tta ut er med VDV vid Kherson en g\u00e5ng till men allts\u00e5 redan 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Denna Starlink offensiv ger oss bara ytterligare bekr\u00e4ftelse att det antagandet st\u00e4mmer bra men vi \u00e4r egentligen f\u00f6rbi detta nu – att vara sura p\u00e5 USAs f\u00f6rbaskade f\u00f6rr\u00e4deri sedan 2022 och att europas ledare var infiltrerade och livr\u00e4dda personligen f\u00f6r Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag kopplade ihop Starlink med Iran r\u00e4tt eller fel men det kan ocks\u00e5 ha varit f\u00f6r att RU inte slutade \u00f6del\u00e4gga Ukraina med robotar?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men i dagarna har Ukraina bek\u00e4mpat tv\u00e5 raffinaderier och ett enormt ammunitionsf\u00f6rr\u00e5d (GRAU) s\u00e5 dom gasar p\u00e5 s\u00e5 f\u00f6rmodligen hade det med Iran att g\u00f6ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samtidigt som Starlink gick ned st\u00e4ngde RU av Telegram vilket var en annan kanal RU army anv\u00e4nder sig av f\u00f6r ordergivning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kan det vara s\u00e5 att Putin inte vill ha hem RU trupper fr\u00e5n Ukraina \u2013 jag tror inte p\u00e5 detta sj\u00e4lv men tanken \u00e4r f\u00f6dd iallafall \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hursomhelst, den h\u00e4r motoffensiven har \u00e4nnu inte slagit igenom i media, Ukraina \u00e4r tysta och kartorna inte uppdaterade men de l\u00f6sryckta bitar man f\u00e5r fr\u00e5n olika h\u00e5ll (Budanov har ju tystnat nu n\u00e4r han blev politiker, d\u00e5 \u00e4r man inget v\u00e4rt l\u00e4ngre tydligen…) f\u00f6resl\u00e5r att UA lyckats genomf\u00f6ra motoffensiver p\u00e5 flera platser som alla g\u00e5tt ypperligt, m\u00f6jligen \u00e4ven lokala fulla genombrott.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r Starlink gick ned f\u00f6rsvann v\u00e4l RU digitala slagf\u00e4lt, dr\u00f6narvapen och stridskommunikation i ett svep, och n\u00e4r dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte med Telegram ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r ordergivningen st\u00e4ngdes den ocks\u00e5 ned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nattsvart p\u00e5 den ryska avbytarb\u00e4nken och generaler och \u00f6ver googlar hur man s\u00f6ker asyl i Dubai as we speak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r kallt, ryska f\u00f6rband \u00e4r i d\u00e5ligt skick och med lite tur kommer vi snart f\u00e5 se hur d\u00e5ligt skick dom \u00e4r i lite l\u00e4ngre bak \u2013 ett tillf\u00e4lle att klippa till kommer Ukraina aldrig f\u00f6rsitta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enligt tidigare har Ukraina en offensiv strategisk reserv p\u00e5 +60 000st som \u00e4r fullt resurssatta och elitf\u00f6rband med digitalt slagf\u00e4lt och alla indirekta f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor att tillg\u00e5. Den h\u00e4r offensiva reserven beskrev jag vintern 2024 och fick tvek tillbaka men det visade sig st\u00e4mma naturligtvis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag gissar ocks\u00e5 att fler brigader \u00e4n s\u00e5 varit i vila ett bra tag nu s\u00e5 det b\u00f6r \u00e4ven finnas en offensiv reserv att tillg\u00e5 ut\u00f6ver dessa vi inte sett \u00e4nnu, men de +60 000st har b\u00e4st tr\u00e4ning, materiel och personaltillg\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU bygger f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt upp ett potent dr\u00f6narvapen p\u00e5 160 000st och deras f\u00f6rluster i materiel \u00e4r l\u00e5ga s\u00e5 dom f\u00f6rbereder sig absolut f\u00f6r ut\u00f6kad konflikt som vi resonerat kring tidigare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europa har nu kommit ikapp med dr\u00f6narinterceptors och \u00e4ven lasrar \u2013 dr\u00f6narvapnet finns det NU motmedel emot som v\u00e4l kommer ut p\u00e5 f\u00f6rband och vid gr\u00e4nserna till sommaren kanske?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Med den st\u00e4ndiga whack-a-molen och vi har tidigare gissat att RU f\u00f6nster f\u00f6r att kunna hitta p\u00e5 n\u00e5got kul mot Baltikum skulle st\u00e4nga runt sommaren 2026 \u2013 kommer bli en bra gissning igen kommer ni f\u00e5 se.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r snart v\u00e5r och Budanov (innan han blev viktig med slips) l\u00e4t meddela att RU f\u00f6rbereder en v\u00e5roffensiv. Eftersom ryssj\u00e4vlarna haft offensiva operationer konstant sedan h\u00f6sten 2023 \u00e4r det h\u00f6g sannolikhet p\u00e5 det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Denna UA motoffensiv tolkar jag som att dom f\u00e5ngade ett tillf\u00e4lle MEN dom m\u00e5ste ha f\u00e5tt f\u00f6rhandsinformation att Starlink skulle st\u00e4ngas av \u2013 hur turerna g\u00e5tt vet jag inte och vad USAs bevekelsegrunder var f\u00f6r att informera Ukraina vet jag inte heller men det var en positiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alla vettiga analytiker verkar nu vara \u00f6verens om att jag hade r\u00e4tt tidigare n\u00e4r jag skrev att RU byggt upp en offensiv f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga utanf\u00f6r Ukraina och nu varnar tyskarna ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6r det \u2013 tror dom l\u00e4st ikapp mina inl\u00e4gg nu men dom har inte en betald prenumeration dom j\u00e4vlarna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Det tyskarna s\u00e5klart missat \u00e4r att whack-a-molen nu f\u00f6rflyttat sig s\u00e5 att RU f\u00f6nster att p\u00e5 n\u00e5got s\u00e4tt g\u00e5 in i Baltikum snart \u00e4r st\u00e4ngt. H\u00f6sten 2024 under Zapad 25 var enligt mig h\u00f6gsta risken och nu kommer kurvan g\u00e5 ned\u00e5t mot noll fram tills i sommar\/efter sommaren n\u00e5ng\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sk\u00e4let \u00e4r v\u00e4ldigt enkelt \u2013 RU f\u00f6rsvarsmakten utan dr\u00f6narvapnet \u00e4r inte d\u00f6dlig alls, \u00e5terkommer nedan till det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enklaste v\u00e4gen i m\u00e5l f\u00f6r Europa \u2013 l\u00e5t Ukraina f\u00e4lla Ryssland s\u00e5 dom v\u00e4nder sig in\u00e5t i 20\u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e5 hinner vi minera igen gr\u00e4nsen och komma \u00f6verens om alla \u00e5tg\u00e4rder mot Ryssland n\u00e4r dom strider inb\u00f6rdes f\u00f6r vi verkar beh\u00f6va v\u00e4ldigt m\u00e5nga \u00e5r f\u00f6r enkla beslut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det h\u00e4r har vi sagt sedan 2022 och det st\u00e5r sig ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USAs plan vet ni redan \u2013 tvinga fram ett eldupph\u00f6r och samma dag g\u00e5 ut stort med att alla sanktioner \u00e4r lyfta. Fortfarande sur p\u00e5 att Trump lurade mig i Augusti 2024 men nu verkar det inte g\u00e5 l\u00e4ngre f\u00f6r Ukraina och Europa bryr sig inte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sen att Ryssland kommer f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka f\u00e4lla Ukraina politiskt och senare igen milit\u00e4rt \u00e4r kollateral, Trump gjorde sitt yttersta f\u00f6r att f\u00e4lla Zelensky redan men landet h\u00f6ll ihop som tur var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu till grenen Johan No.1 hyllar sig sj\u00e4lv f\u00f6r att han \u00e4r ett orakel i paritet med den urgamla tanten i Delfi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vid tv\u00e5 tillf\u00e4llen har ukraina deltagit med dr\u00f6nargrupper i \u00f6vningar med NATOf\u00f6rband och fullst\u00e4ndigt mosat s\u00f6nder dom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En liten dr\u00f6nargrupp slog ut tiotals m\u00e5l och RU har idag ett dr\u00f6narvapen 80 000st stark eller n\u00e5t och h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 och bygger upp det till 160 000st. Ryssland har precis som Ukraina l\u00e4rt sig vad som fungerar efter att ha gjort alla misstag sj\u00e4lva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VAD VAR DET JAG SA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e4r mina v\u00e4nner har ni sk\u00e4let till att Baltikum ligger \u00f6de vilket v\u00e4l var gissningen n\u00e4r jag beskrev operation Baltikum och ett troligt sk\u00e4l till att Europa inte hedrade sina ing\u00e5ngna avtal med balterna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r i dessa avtal lovar vi att k\u00f6ra in tunga mekbrigader i Baltikum vid f\u00f6rh\u00f6jd hotbild och det var det senast under Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europa visste att det ryska dr\u00f6narvapnet skulle smula s\u00f6nder dom och ingen idag sittande statschef i Europa skulle politiskt \u00f6verleva tusentals d\u00f6da unga soldater p\u00e5 n\u00e5n vecka… s\u00e5 dom CHANSADE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europa CHANSADE p\u00e5 att Ukraina skulle kunna h\u00e5lla ut och att Ryssland inte skulle \u00f6ppna en ny front i Baltikum i n\u00e5gon form, efter att dom invaderat Ukraina och visat sig vara helt gr\u00e4nsl\u00f6sa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men nu \u00e4r vi f\u00f6rbi det OM Ukraina bara kan st\u00f6ra ut ryssj\u00e4vlarna tillr\u00e4ckligt l\u00e4nge i Ukraina s\u00e5 Europa hinner f\u00e5 fram all anti-dr\u00f6narteknik till \u00f6stfronten i bulk nu under 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det offer UA gjort f\u00f6r att vi skulle f\u00e5 fyra \u00e5r p\u00e5 oss att komma i ordning \u00e4r obeskrivligt men sj\u00e4lvklart kommer det vara Macron, Scholtz, Merz, Starmer, Biden och Trump som r\u00e4ddade v\u00e4rlden n\u00e4r historien skall skrivas \u2013 och ni kan kanske gissa vem som har livsl\u00e5ngt jobb att skriva historien r\u00e4ttvist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e5 vi l\u00e4gger det till h\u00f6gen med kvalificerade gissningar som visade sig vara r\u00e4tt och hoppas att alla vid tiden motkommentarer f\u00f6rst\u00e5r hur enormt mycket dom f\u00f6rst\u00f6rt sitt eget rykte genom att inte h\u00e5lla med mig i allt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Om inte annat s\u00e5 fick ni \u00e4ven under \u00e5r 4 chansen att ta till er sanningen s\u00e5som den \u00e4r och inte som media och politikerna f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker vinkla den.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ukraina genomf\u00f6r just nu en offensiv vid 4-5 frontavsnitt och den startade precis n\u00e4r Elon Musk st\u00e4ngde av Starlink f\u00f6r […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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