{"id":4056,"date":"2026-02-19T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/?p=4056"},"modified":"2026-02-19T21:43:55","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T20:43:55","slug":"ak-inte-pa-semester-till-iran-19-februari-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/ak-inte-pa-semester-till-iran-19-februari-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c5k inte p\u00e5 semester till Iran, 19 Februari 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jag blev av med hela inl\u00e4gget om Iran men skrev om det n\u00e4r jag slutade sura d\u00e4rav den ekande tystnaden i era sociala medier. F\u00f6r er som inte st\u00e4ngt era konton \u00e4nnu kommer det omskrivna inl\u00e4gget nedan som tur \u00e4r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det b\u00f6rjar v\u00e4l n\u00e4rma sig en all-out robot och flygattack p\u00e5 Iran nu?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det verkar inte som mordf\u00f6rs\u00f6ket p\u00e5 Komeini lyckades – Hegseth var alldeles till sig p\u00e5 twitter men har tappat bort det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Och det blev ocks\u00e5 tyst efter alla explosionerna h\u00e4romveckan \u2013 regimen verkar fortfarande ha situationen under hj\u00e4lplig kontroll efter ytterligare massakrer p\u00e5 medborgarna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e5let med operationen b\u00f6r vara att skaka om regimen s\u00e5 pass att medborgarna, och Israelisk samt US SOF, kan kn\u00e4cka ryggen p\u00e5 den.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA: dom har m\u00e5lat in sig i ett h\u00f6rn, skulle dom backa nu efter mullornas hot ser dom svaga ut och har en petrodollar och statsskuld att f\u00f6rsvara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran: dom k\u00e4nns inte som killarna som skulle f\u00f6rsitta chansen offra landet f\u00f6r ett stort avslutningsfyrverkeri, och deras familjer har redan expatrierat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel: dom verkar vilja f\u00e4lla regimen i Iran om vi skall g\u00e5 efter hur dom agerat efter 2023. Jag gissar att dom varit p\u00e5drivande i detta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryssland: h\u00e5lls p\u00e5 mattan av USA genom Ukrainakriget, Putin br\u00e4nde sig med Starlink nyligen och han har n\u00e5got eget diaboliskt p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng eftersom Telegram st\u00e4ngts av i Ryssland – \u00e5terkommer med det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kina: dom vill nog testa USAs mod, sin egen diplomatiska tyngd och de olika teknikplattformarna helst genom att bara Iran bek\u00e4mpar amerikanska m\u00e5l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I dagarna har irans ledning h\u00e4cklat och h\u00e5nat USA genom alla kanaler dom har vilket man bara g\u00f6r om man \u00e4r beredda p\u00e5 en fajt \u2013 \u201dn\u00f6rd-Trump kan f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka den tjockisen men allt som kommer h\u00e4nda \u00e4r att alla hans sm\u00e5 t\u00f6ntiga b\u00e5tar kommer sjunka och han f\u00e5r diabetes\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kina har i m\u00e5nader haft en aktiv luftbro till Iran och vad som levererats kan vi nog gissa: LV, radar, dr\u00f6nare och robotar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spetsflyg har inte iranska piloter hunnit utbildas p\u00e5 och markf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga \u00e4r inte det kritiska alls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Om plattformarna \u00e4r bemannade med kinesisk personal eller inte vet jag inte, men att det finns kinesiska sambandsofficerare i landet kan vi utg\u00e5 ifr\u00e5n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kan till och med vara s\u00e5 att Kina byggt ett digitalt slagf\u00e4lt ocks\u00e5 \u00e5t Iran som dom bemannar?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Satellitdata kommer iallafall beh\u00f6vas i f\u00f6rsvaret och det torde Kina tillhandah\u00e5lla.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kina har en flottstyrka i omr\u00e5det med toppmoderna jagare och EW plattformar, och en f\u00f6rest\u00e5ende \u00f6vning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

USA har 1\/3 av sin flotta i omr\u00e5det, och obscent mycket mer \u00e4n under gulfkrigen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

En liten misstanke om att USA skapar sig ett Pearl Harbour d\u00e5 flottan hade kunnat lega i Medelhavet ist\u00e4llet, m\u00e5l i \u00f6stra Iran hade kunnat bek\u00e4mpas fr\u00e5n ub\u00e5tar lokaliserade i Arabiska havet S\u00d6 om Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad kommer h\u00e4nda?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kina och USA kommer sl\u00e5 p\u00e5 alla sina EW vapen p\u00e5 full effekt och de defensiva plattformar som knappt testats f\u00e4rdigt hos Skunkworks \u00e4nnu men som smugits ombord.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00e4gge kommer uppt\u00e4cka hur deras EW vapen fungerar, och hur deras egna vapen fungerar under mostst\u00e5ndarens EW p\u00e5verkan i skarpt l\u00e4ge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alla kommer gallskrika att det \u00e4r f\u00f6r n\u00e4rskydd\/hot mot egnas liv\/sj\u00e4lvf\u00f6rsvar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Venezuela anv\u00e4nde USA en EMP till exempel och sen n\u00e5t ljudvapen f\u00f6r markstriden som pacificerade motst\u00e5ndarna men h\u00e4r pratar vi hela paletten med hemliga f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor p\u00e5 en o\u00e4ndligt mycket h\u00f6gre niv\u00e5 d\u00e5 insatserna \u00e4r skyh\u00f6ga, inte bara ett seal-team som kan f\u00f6rloras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den iranska regimen kommer f\u00f6rmodligen f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka f\u00e5 iv\u00e4g s\u00e5 mycket dom kan mot Israel och eftersom Iron Dome svajade bet\u00e4nkligt sist det begav sig \u00e4r det sannolikt med spektakul\u00e4ra tr\u00e4ffar och mycket d\u00f6d \u2013 krigets regler och Israel \u00e4r i krig med Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den iranska regimen och Houti i Yemen kommer g\u00f6ra sitt yttersta att s\u00e4nka ett st\u00f6rre fartyg f\u00f6r USA, helst ett hangarfartyg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kina t\u00e4nker jag \u00e4r d\u00e4r lite f\u00f6r att testa \u2013 f\u00f6rlorar dom alla sina fartyg i omr\u00e5det i en episk sm\u00e4ll har dom m\u00f6jligheten att backa, b\u00f6rja k\u00f6pa USA statsskuld igen och st\u00e4nga BRIICSkontoret. N\u00e5gra h\u00e4ngda generaler och ett par miljarder till Trump kanske ocks\u00e5 beh\u00f6vs?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skulle det visa sig att deras teknik \u00e4r s\u00e5 bra som dom p\u00e5st\u00e5r och amerikanska matroser ligger och guppar i arabiska havet \u00e4r spelreglerna uppdaterade i ett svep och Taiwan f\u00e5r g\u00e5 upp i stabsl\u00e4ge pronto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryssland kommer avfyra verbala atombomber men det \u00e4r redan uppgjort med USA att det stannar vid det. Relationen USA-Ryssland \u00e4r fundamentalt annorlunda \u00e4n USA-Kina kan vi nog sl\u00e5 fast \u00e4ven om min misstanke tidigare var att USA-Kina kanske ocks\u00e5 spelade dubbelt. Tror vi har s\u00e5 pass mycket information nu att det g\u00e5 att sl\u00e5 fast det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad kommer USA g\u00f6ra?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00e5r dom ett Peal Harbour vet vi vad dom kommer g\u00f6ra, Lex Pearl Harbour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00e5r dom ett b\u00e4sta utfall kommer dom bli sporrade att g\u00e5 \u00e4nnu l\u00e4ngre fram\u00f6ver med udden riktad mot Kina, varf\u00f6r vara gener\u00f6sa mot ett land som gjort det till sitt kall att f\u00e4lla USA fr\u00e5n tronen med alla till buds st\u00e5ende medel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad blir d\u00e5 utfallet?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ett b\u00e4stascenario \u00e4r att Iranska regimen faller, inga fartyg s\u00e4nks och att alla l\u00e4mnar efter lite tuppf\u00e4ktande och verbala hot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ett v\u00e4rstascenario \u00e4r att vi n\u00e5tt punkten d\u00e4r ingen nu sittande statschef l\u00e4ngre kan kontrollera denna situation som f\u00e5r sitt eget liv n\u00e4r en stressad fartygschefs hesa order missf\u00f6rst\u00e5s av eldledningen som trycker p\u00e5 r\u00f6d knapp och eskaleringen mot fullt krig \u00e4r ig\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f6grisk anser jag att USA, Kina och Ryssland alla finns i vattnen utanf\u00f6r Iran samtidigt som Iran skall tv\u00e5las magnituder st\u00f6rre \u00e4n Saddam i ett f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att avs\u00e4tta regimen. Vilket betyder att regimen inte har n\u00e5got att f\u00f6rlora.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hezbollah har redan ringt och meddelat (mest gr\u00e5tskrikit) vad tacken var f\u00f6r att dom inte deltog i 7 Oktober 2023 s\u00e5 Komeini vet redan redan hur det kommer g\u00e5 om dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker vara l\u00e5gaffektiva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00e4r var allts\u00e5 korta versionen och jag lj\u00f6g n\u00e4r jag sa att jag inte var sur l\u00e4ngre, skriver i massa \u00f6ppna word som jag spar men ibland n\u00e4r man har ett nytt har det inte sparat innan datorn omstartar eller p\u00e5 annat s\u00e4tt beter sig som MXT servrar mellan varven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi \u00e4r nog s\u00e5 n\u00e4ra ett krig utan att redan vara i krig vi kommer komma under 2026 med undantag f\u00f6r ett m\u00f6jligt operation Baltikum ocks\u00e5, och kanske Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kommer Hormussundet f\u00f6rbli \u00f6ppet \u2013 nej.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kommer finansmarknaderna rista till \u2013 ja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Med risk f\u00f6r att l\u00e5ta kallhamrad – f\u00f6r Europa \u00e4r det inte h\u00f6grisk med denna operation eller potentiellt krig USA-Kina p\u00e5 samma s\u00e4tt som rysslands h\u00e4rjningar i Ukraina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det skulle f\u00f6rmodligen landa i att vi tillhandah\u00e5ller flyg och flotta till USA och att Australien s\u00e5 sm\u00e5ningom blir en enda stor milit\u00e4rbas (varf\u00f6r landet inte \u00e4r det idag \u00e4r f\u00f6r mig obegripligt!) men att vi slipper allm\u00e4n mobilisering och brinnande st\u00e4der.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6rutsatt att vi h\u00e5ller ryssj\u00e4vlarna i shack och dom har n\u00e5t ljusskyggt p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng i detta nu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jag blev av med hela inl\u00e4gget om Iran men skrev om det n\u00e4r jag slutade sura d\u00e4rav den ekande tystnaden […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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