{"id":4720,"date":"2026-05-07T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/?p=4720"},"modified":"2026-05-07T11:21:50","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T09:21:50","slug":"azovstoten-7-maj-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/azovstoten-7-maj-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Azovst\u00f6ten, 7 Maj 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Vi har genom p\u00e5litliga k\u00e4llor f\u00e5tt bekr\u00e4ftat det vi l\u00e4nge gissat \u2013 eftersom RU hela tiden stridit offensivt har dom inte byggt fortifikationer i nya er\u00f6vrade omr\u00e5den. Som mest f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrar dom UA gamla fortifikationer men som d\u00e5 ligger och pekar \u00e5t fel h\u00e5ll. Man har inte heller minerat igen som i Surovikinlinjen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den gamla linjen ligger naturligtvis p\u00e5 djupet l\u00e4ngre bak men \u00e4r bara en f\u00f6rsvarslinje om det st\u00e5r f\u00f6rband i den – annars \u00e4r det gropar man kliver \u00f6ver och minor man sparkar undan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sitter och tittar p\u00e5 Stepnohirsk \u2013 det \u00e4r nog betydligt allvarligare \u00e4n vad RU f\u00f6rst\u00e5r \u00e4nnu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU genomf\u00f6rde tidigare en offensiv upp mot Zaporizha som v\u00e4l n\u00e5dde Primorske, dom hade vattnet i flanken och sedan breddade dom sig \u00f6sterut en bra bit, ni minns kanske mina gallskrik?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU f\u00f6rde fram f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga till omr\u00e5det f\u00f6r fortsatt framryckning \u2013 en av anfallsvektorerna i deras v\u00e5roffensiv som fick offensiva f\u00f6rband.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vid n\u00e5got tillf\u00e4lle \u00f6vertog UA initiativet, deras f\u00f6rband i omr\u00e5det \u00e4r kompetenta f\u00f6rband men l\u00e4gre numer\u00e4r \u00e4n RU. Gissar att en del \u201dvolunteer units\u201d \u00e4r att r\u00e4kna i hundratal till exempel?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU st\u00e5r i spetsen med de som skall vara insatsstyrkor f\u00f6r omr\u00e5det om dom g\u00e5r i f\u00f6rsvar \u2013 VDV och spaning. Tv\u00e5 VDV divisioner, totalt ett regemente spaning + 22nd Spetznaz brigade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryssj\u00e4vlarna backar i detta nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

104th AAD och 7th MAAD strider i stort sett upp mot Stepnohirsk s\u00e5 n\u00e4r som p\u00e5 tv\u00e5 regementen, och spaning h\u00e5ller tillbaka en bataljon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Den enda reserven ut\u00f6ver det \u00e4r 7st BARS bataljoner vid Tokmak \u2013 sen \u00e4r det tomt ned till Krim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag har nog f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt underskattat BARS, dom verkar numera sammanslagna av flera stycken och \u00e4r mer regementen \u00e4n bataljoner \u2013 lite d\u00e5lig koll p\u00e5 dom f\u00e5r jag erk\u00e4nna och f\u00f6rmodligen lite b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n jag ger sken av.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dneprfronten har ett VDV regemente som inatsstyrka + ett Spetznazkompani.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Krim \u00e4r i stort sett of\u00f6rsvarat samma som tidigare, kanske 10 000 \u2013 15 000st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00e4ngre \u00f6sterut l\u00e4ngs med s\u00f6dra fronten finns det i stort sett inga insatsstyrkor ut\u00f6ver en spaningsbrigad och sen ett spetznazkompani l\u00e4ngre s\u00f6derut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ja, RU kan f\u00f6rflytta f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n andra fronter men sista j\u00e4rnv\u00e4gsf\u00e4rjan \u00f6ver Kertj \u00e4r s\u00e4nkt, bron ej k\u00f6rduglig och \u00d6-V v\u00e4gar bakom s\u00f6dra fronten ligger bekv\u00e4mt inom UA dr\u00f6narparaply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enda s\u00e4ttet att f\u00f6ra in f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar \u00e4r via j\u00e4rnv\u00e4g eller tillfartsv\u00e4garna och dom faller under det strategiska dr\u00f6narvapnet s\u00e5 det tullar inte p\u00e5 frontn\u00e4ra FPV f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor. Det finns egentligen inga b\u00e4ttre m\u00e5l \u00e4n en l\u00e5ng orm av h\u00e5rda och mjuka fordon p\u00e5 landsv\u00e4g n\u00e4r man har dr\u00f6nare, artilleri, spetsflyg, JDAMS och ahkp l\u00e4tt gripbart inom sitt \u201duber f\u00f6r artilleri\u201d. Att man skulle missa att uppt\u00e4cka dom idag \u00e4r otroligt \u2013 Ukraina har egna satelliter, f\u00e5r information av Europa och st\u00e4ndig dr\u00f6nar\u00f6vervakning med IR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dom kommer se n\u00e4r f\u00f6rberedelserna g\u00f6rs p\u00e5 annan plats, om inte annat ber\u00e4ttar ATESH det f\u00f6r dom, och sen v\u00e4ntar man in r\u00e4tt tidpunkt n\u00e4r dom tagit sig bekv\u00e4mt innanf\u00f6r dr\u00f6narsk\u00e4rmen och klipper till.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6rflyttning medelst j\u00e4rnv\u00e4g \u00e4r n\u00e4stan ett \u00e4nnu mer attraktivt m\u00e5l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r inte 2022-2023 l\u00e4ngre, i \u00e5r kan Ukraina dominera alla tillfartsv\u00e4garna och j\u00e4rnv\u00e4gssp\u00e5ren bakom s\u00f6dra fronten d\u00e4r flaskhalsen \u00e4r borta vid Berdyansk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU har prioriterat Donetsk-fronten och fokus nu \u00e4r Kramatorsk\/Sloviansk \u2013 S\u00f6dra fronten\/Dneprfronten f\u00e5r bevisligen klara sig med glesare bemanning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bara m\u00f6jligheter egentligen \u2013 borta mellan Kinburn Spit \u2013 Krim kan UA k\u00f6ra amfibiestrid d\u00e4r dom ans\u00e4tter staber och bakre f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor som ville ha lite sj\u00f6utsikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Krim kan man g\u00f6ra r\u00e4der emot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6ver Dnepr kommer dom absolut – finns flera nya marinesbrigader nu i omr\u00e5det. Gamla territorial som skaffat sig denna status genom erfarenhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Borta vid Stepnohirsk backar redan det b\u00e4sta RU har i omr\u00e5det, n\u00e5n mil redan och orten Stepnohirsk har dom inte full kontroll \u00f6ver alls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c5rets skyddsjakt har bara b\u00f6rjat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dnepr mellan Khakovka och Zaporizha \u00e4r idag en skog med en liten \u00e5 (l\u00e4tt \u00f6verdrivet) i mitten som man r\u00e4tt l\u00e4tt l\u00e4gger sm\u00e5 pontoner \u00f6ver. Jag trodde RU skulle utnyttja det men nu \u00e4r det UA tur. RU har inget f\u00f6rsvar att tala om mellan Enerhodar och ned till Khakovka \u2013 bra omr\u00e5de att f\u00f6ra \u00f6ver stor m\u00e4ngd r\u00f6rliga f\u00f6rband p\u00e5 d\u00e5 dom i stort sett kliver \u00f6ver Dnepr d\u00e4r med ett litet svanhopp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

F\u00e5r man f\u00f6r sig att poola ihop n\u00e5got fr\u00e5n den strategiska offensiva reserven med en del dr\u00f6narf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga sv\u00e4nger det snabbt till kritiskt illr\u00f6tt f\u00f6r RU i omr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sj\u00e4lva Krim blir nog det minsta problemet f\u00f6r halv\u00f6n \u00e4r om\u00f6jlig att f\u00f6rsvara \u2013 Lex N\u00e5gra Hundra \u00c5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e4ngden materiel nere p\u00e5 Krim \u00e4r bed\u00f6vande \u2013 v\u00e4ldigt mycket \u00e4r i behov av reparation och kan inte flyttas ut samt att RU tidigare visat stor vilja i att \u00f6verge tung materiel n\u00e4r det \u00e4r dags f\u00f6r den ryska versionen av en retr\u00e4tt \u2013 vild flykt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r d\u00e4rf\u00f6r jag b\u00f6rjar fundera p\u00e5 om inte USA g\u00e5r in f\u00f6r att s\u00e4kra den eviga freden p\u00e5 Krim som \u201d\u00e4nd\u00e5 ingen klarar av att h\u00e5lla\u201d genom att ockupera halv\u00f6n \u00e5t Ryssland. Vi har inte sett det \u00e4nnu men det finns en plan f\u00f6r det garanterat \u2013 men bara om dom kan g\u00f6ra det innan UA st\u00e5r vid ytterd\u00f6rren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Denna ukrainska operation g\u00e5r under namnet Azovst\u00f6ten \u2013 tror det var Fram i Natten som fick \u00e4ran att mynta uttrycket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det h\u00e4r skulle kommit redan 2022 men d\u00e5 hotade Putin med k\u00e4rnvapen om hans VDV som stod p\u00e5 fel sida Dnepr v\u00e4ster om staden Kherson blev omfattade s\u00e5 USA stoppade UA f\u00f6r att r\u00e4dda v\u00e4rlden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vid tidpunkten gissade vi v\u00e4l p\u00e5 n\u00e5got s\u00e5nt eftersom Operation Badanka inte blev s\u00e5 kul som n\u00e5gon lovat n\u00e5gon, och det visade sig st\u00e4mma. \u00c5terigen fick man sitta och lyssna till kacklandet fr\u00e5n alla proffsen som visste att det aldrig varit Ukrainas plan och att dom aldrig kunnat genomf\u00f6ra det \u2013 tills vi fick det bekr\u00e4ftat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2023 n\u00e4r UA v\u00e5roffensiv slog i v\u00e4ggen anf\u00f6ll marink\u00e5ren l\u00e4ngs med s\u00f6dra fronten men kom inte fram\u00e5t d\u00e5 RU kastade in allt dom hade mot varje genombrott tills det tog stopp. Dom hade i lugn och ro kunnat f\u00f6ra fram f\u00f6rband eftersom USA, Europa och ukrainska parlamentariker l\u00e4ckt stridsplanen d\u00e4r USA kanske var v\u00e4rst f\u00f6r dom kr\u00e4vde dessutom att allt skulle g\u00e5 genom dom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det som inte lyftes tillr\u00e4ckligt var att tillfartsv\u00e4garna insatsstyrkorna d\u00e5 anv\u00e4nde var absolut nedlusade med utslagna fordon l\u00e5ngt innan dom n\u00e5tt stridsomr\u00e5det redan d\u00e5 \u00e5r 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ni kan nog gissa hur det kommer g\u00e5 i \u00e5r samt att RU inte har numer\u00e4ren p\u00e5 gripbara insatsstyrkor alls den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e4remot s\u00e5 m\u00e5ste dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka \u2013 det \u00e4r enligt doktrin och order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6rbanden som ligger l\u00e4ngs med Dnepr v\u00e4ster om Zaporizha \u00e4r en r\u00e4tt intressant mosaik av extremt dugliga f\u00f6rband varav r\u00e4tt m\u00e5nga mindre f\u00f6rmodligen. Varenda en \u00e4r ett specialiserat f\u00f6rband och r\u00e4tt mycket dr\u00f6narf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga i omr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e5got som nog idag 2026 \u00e4r fungerar \u00e4nnu b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n n\u00e4r vi beskrev \u201dDen Stora F\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen\u201d tidigt 2023 \u00e4r v\u00e4l att g\u00e5 \u00f6ver Dnepr med kompani-bataljon och g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar i dominerande terr\u00e4ng under eget LV och dr\u00f6narparaply i ett relativt of\u00f6rsvarat omr\u00e5de.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eller jag backar, n\u00e4r Ukraina b\u00f6rjade n\u00f6ta p\u00e5 Kherson 2022 gjorde dom exakt det vid Davyidiv Brid om ni minns s\u00e5 jag kan inte ta \u00e5t mig hela \u00e4ran \u00f6ver den kommande braksegern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e4g till exempel att Ukraina g\u00e5r \u00f6ver med ett kompani och bes\u00e4tter den lilla \u201dhalv\u00f6n\u201d vid Babyne, se nedan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e4refter gr\u00e4ver dom ned sig och UA official g\u00e5r ut stort med att man nu korsat Dnepr och Zelensky ger n\u00e5n valfri brigadchef medalj med motiveringen att nu vinner dom kriget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inom en dag har cheferna 18th och 59th CAA f\u00e5tt order fr\u00e5n Putin sj\u00e4lv om att \u00e5terta omr\u00e5det \u201doch kasta ukraina-j\u00e4vlarna tillbaka \u00f6ver Dnepr pronto eller s\u00e5 blir det krigsr\u00e4tt\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dom kommer f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka med FAB som Ukraina bara v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 \u2013 n\u00e5gra nedskjutna flyg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Allt artilleri eller dr\u00f6narf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker flytta fram inom r\u00e4ckvidd v\u00e4ntar Ukraina p\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vilken insatsstyrka dom nu v\u00e4ljer m\u00e5ste upp och banda p\u00e5 landsv\u00e4g 50km f\u00f6r att komma till stridsomr\u00e5det \u2013 vilket Ukraina h\u00e5ller tummarna f\u00f6r, och v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Voila \u2013 en vecka senare \u00e4r tre ryska regementen rykande skroth\u00f6gar p\u00e5 v\u00e4garna in mot Babyne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det h\u00e4r reptricket kan man upprepa ett par tre g\u00e5nger s\u00e4kert, Kinburn Spit \u00e4r en annan kul plats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sen blir v\u00e4l f\u00f6rsta f\u00f6rs\u00f6ket att flytta fronten att rensa all terr\u00e4ng v\u00e4ster om floden Konka som \u00e4r ett naturligt hinder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vid n\u00e5got tillf\u00e4lle \u00e4r man \u00f6ver Dnepr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e4ljer RU att inte g\u00f6ra n\u00e5gonting alls \u00e4r man \u00f6ver Dnepr kvickare \u00e4n s\u00e5 \u2013 kallas v\u00e4l schack?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r om inte sj\u00f6dr\u00f6narna redan idag b\u00f6rjar r\u00f6ra sig med LV robot p\u00e5 djupet s\u00e5 det ryska flyget helt kommer f\u00f6rv\u00e4gras tilltr\u00e4de, och dr\u00f6nart\u00e4cket \u00e4r s\u00e5 pass l\u00e5ngtg\u00e5ende att MLRS mest \u00e4r m\u00e5l nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iskanderplattformar eller fartyg med Kalibr \u00e4r nog prioriterade m\u00e5l och Ukraina har redan genomf\u00f6rt en r\u00e4tt ambiti\u00f6s f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning i Krimomr\u00e5det\/bakom s\u00f6dra fronten s\u00e5 upprensningen \u00e4r i full g\u00e5ng redan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sekunden chefen CAA b\u00f6rjar k\u00e4nna att landbryggan ned till Krim \u00e4r i farozonen sl\u00e4pper hela Dneprfronten i ett gigantiskt l\u00e4mmelt\u00e5g ned mot Krim eller bara \u00f6sterut mot Mariupol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e4refter kan Ukraina sl\u00e4ppa Krim genom att bara l\u00e4gga ett f\u00f6rsvar vid landbryggan och Voila No.2 \u2013 hela s\u00f6dra fronten har nu ett akut hot i flanken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Har dom s\u00e5 dom kan l\u00e4gga ett dr\u00f6nart\u00e4cke \u00f6ver ryska sidan och f\u00f6r fram inte mer \u00e4n tre man\u00f6verbrigader har det nog v\u00e4gt \u00f6ver till bl\u00e5tt lag i den striden \u2013 detta finns absolut i den gripbara strategiska offensiva reserven redan, handlar bara om prioritering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vill ni ocks\u00e5 se Azovst\u00f6ten i \u00e5r \u2013 sannolikheten f\u00f6r den \u00f6kar exponentiellt om ni blir betalande prenumerant p\u00e5 Substack och ju fler som prenumererar desto st\u00f6rre blir sannolikheten.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vi har genom p\u00e5litliga k\u00e4llor f\u00e5tt bekr\u00e4ftat det vi l\u00e4nge gissat \u2013 eftersom RU hela tiden stridit offensivt har dom […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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