{"id":5603,"date":"2026-08-12T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/?p=5603"},"modified":"2026-08-12T14:23:35","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T12:23:35","slug":"ukraina-frontrapport-12-augusti-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/ukraina-frontrapport-12-augusti-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraina frontrapport, 12 Augusti 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Flikar in ett inl\u00e4gg om fronterna,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eftersom Ukraina nu respekterar full OPSEC och det inkluderar osintarna f\u00e5r vi v\u00e4ldigt lite officiell information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deepstatemap som v\u00e4l allm\u00e4nt ansetts vara trov\u00e4rdiga hotades med mobilisering om dom fortsatte posta front\u00e4ndringar s\u00e5 dom har v\u00e4l snudd p\u00e5 fryst kartan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De ostintare vi f\u00f6ljt under hela kriget respekterar till stor del detta men ibland kommer n\u00e5n egen karta och dom postar absolut ryska kartor \u00f6ver ukrainska framg\u00e5ngar med den information dom sj\u00e4lva f\u00e5tt fr\u00e5n fronterna som st\u00f6dinformation lite l\u00e4tt maskerat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UA Official t\u00e4nker inte heller ber\u00e4tta f\u00f6r n\u00e5gon i \u00e5r vilka offensiva planer dom har och det g\u00f6r dom r\u00e4tt i \u2013 vi i v\u00e4st l\u00e4ckte som ot\u00e4ta s\u00e5ll till Putin under tre \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryssland anfaller \u00f6ver alla fronter fortfarande och de ukrainska arm\u00e9k\u00e5rerna f\u00f6r en r\u00f6rlig strid inom sina tilldelade omr\u00e5den d\u00e4r 3rd AC kl\u00f6ste till sig ett j\u00e4tteomr\u00e5de att f\u00f6rsvara uppe i norra Luhansk som varit en av de sv\u00e5raste platserna att f\u00f6rsvara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r l\u00e4tt att se att ju mer frihet k\u00e5rcheferna f\u00e5tt desto b\u00e4ttre har det g\u00e5tt lokalt och taktiskt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategiska operationer kr\u00e4ver samordning och tillskjuten f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga som minst och det m\u00e5ste d\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvarsledningen st\u00e5 f\u00f6r \u2013 den byttes precis ut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vet inte om det kan ha p\u00e5verkat n\u00e5gra operationer, f\u00f6rmodligen men nu \u00e4r det gjort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u00e5rerna har s\u00e4kert horisontell kommunikation och kan sj\u00e4lva g\u00e5 till specialfunktioner som GUR eller samarbeta med grannk\u00e5ren f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 viss hj\u00e4lp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skala-regementet var f\u00f6rra \u00d6B \u201dgo-to\u201d f\u00f6rband f\u00f6r sv\u00e5ra uppgifter och har idag v\u00e4xt till divisions storlek. Det skall tydligen ses \u00f6ver s\u00e5 denna externa resurs \u00e4r inte gripbar kanske?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Man h\u00e5ller \u00e4ven p\u00e5 att se \u00f6ver illa fungerande brigader och gissningsvis har det varit en del frivilliga avg\u00e5ngar eller avskedanden efter \u00d6B bytet precis som det blev 2024 sist det byttes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Har ett separat inl\u00e4gg om det stora teknikspr\u00e5nget men f\u00f6r detta inl\u00e4gg har Ukraina idag teknik\u00f6vertaget och Ryssland f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker komma ikapp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lokalt kan Ukraina poola ihop EW, antidr\u00f6nar och egen dr\u00f6narf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga s\u00e5 dom kan strida mekaniserat om dom vill. RU kan inte strida mekaniserat n\u00e5gonstans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Detta f\u00f6nster har ett slutdatum som v\u00e4l \u00e4r 2027 n\u00e5ng\u00e5ng d\u00e5 cyklerna i detta krig varit 6-8 m\u00e5nader innan andra parten kommit ikapp. Det \u00e4r inte j\u00e4ttesv\u00e5rt att komma ikapp, utrusta de mobilia eldgrupperna som idag har eldr\u00f6r med fire-and-forget interceptordr\u00f6nare och f\u00e5 ut dina egna mellanr\u00e4ckvidds AI loiteringdr\u00f6nare s\u00e5 \u00e4r v\u00e5gsk\u00e5len i balans. B\u00e4gge f\u00f6rm\u00e5gorna sliter RU \u00f6vertid med.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 allm\u00e4nt accepterat att RU avser mobilisera i h\u00f6st, exakt n\u00e4r och hur m\u00e5nga tvistar de l\u00e4rda fortfarande om men halvmiljonen eller fler blir det s\u00e4kert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6nstret f\u00f6r ukrainska offensiva operationer \u00e4r s\u00e5ledes nu och fram\u00e5t d\u00e4r marken n\u00e5ng\u00e5ng i Oktober inte l\u00e4ngre b\u00e4r s\u00e5 det blir en p\u00e5tvingad stridspaus tills det fryser p\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi vet att Ukraina har k\u00f6rt remo p\u00e5 massa gamla vagnar som nu har nya vapenstationer och att dom f\u00e5tt minr\u00f6jningsutrustning, tusentals splitterskydd, flytetyg f\u00f6r amfibiestrid och allt annat offensivt dom pekat p\u00e5 s\u00e5 absolut \u00e4r det ambitionsniv\u00e5 h\u00f6g.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00e4rom m\u00e5naden gn\u00e4llde ryssarna p\u00e5 att Ukraina tr\u00e4nar landstigning under r\u00f6k borta vid Dnepr varje dag och dom tycker det \u00e4r ett hot mot v\u00e4rldsfreden, Dessutom \u00e4r Dnepr norr om Khakovka en r\u00e4nnil med skog \u00f6ver hela omr\u00e5det idag \u2013 skyl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skicket p\u00e5 ryska f\u00f6rband borta vid Dnepr \u00e4r uruselt, hungriga, t\u00f6rstiga och ingen diesel till generatorerna. Hela deras stab, stridsledning och dr\u00f6narvapen drivs av portabla generatorer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordkoreanerna flygs in i detta nu till norra fronten men fr\u00e5gar ni mig \u00e4r det f\u00f6r att l\u00f6sg\u00f6ra ryska f\u00f6rband till Baltikum s\u00e5 norra fronten \u00e4r nog en no-go d\u00e5 30 000st ettriga nordkoreaner huserar d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt s\u00e5 g\u00e5r fraktplan mellan Belarus och Kina, Ryssland- Afrika nu ocks\u00e5 \u2013 det \u00e4r absolut saker p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng men det visste ni redan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det vi h\u00f6rt om p\u00e5 senare tid \u00e4r uppe norr om Lyman d\u00e4r Ukraina nu n\u00e5dde Makiivka s\u00e5 dom har st\u00e4ngt in 12st ryska f\u00f6rband v\u00e4ster om vattendraget Zherebets, det finns bara ett f\u00e5tal \u00f6verg\u00e5ngar p\u00e5 den str\u00e4cka av vattendraget RU kontrollerar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r 3rd AC som strider d\u00e4r men RU har n\u00e4ra till f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar fr\u00e5n norra fronten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I Kupiansk \u00e4r RU tillbaka inne i orten men l\u00e4get \u00e4r betydligt b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n tidigare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kostyantynivka r\u00e5der det delade meningar om men RU kontrollerar iallafall inte hela orten, UA anf\u00f6ll i omr\u00e5det med sin offensiva strategiska reserv och rensade upp f\u00f6r ett tag sedan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nedan karta \u00e4r dock lite gl\u00e4djekalkyl, RU st\u00e5r i en hel del av det omstridda omr\u00e5det verkar det som.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Man m\u00e5ste nog alltid l\u00e4sa det omstridda omr\u00e5det som att anfallande part st\u00e5r i det men inte har konsoliderat \u00e4nnu och d\u00e4r \u00e4r det RU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det andra omr\u00e5det \u00e4r Kamyanske d\u00e4r tv\u00e5 VDV divisioner under egen offensiv retirerat 20km vilket jag varit \u00f6verlycklig \u00f6ver och r\u00e5kade hjula s\u00f6nder barnens studsmatta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e4ngden strider, dr\u00f6nare som anv\u00e4nds, FAB bomber och artilleri \u00e4r fortsatt niv\u00e5 h\u00f6g.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU f\u00f6rluster i mankap ser ni h\u00e4r, h\u00f6g niv\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Det h\u00e4r \u00e4r ett h\u00f6gintensivt krig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag vet inte hur diskussionerna g\u00e5r mellan oss i Europa och UA just nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Att USA g\u00f6r sitt b\u00e4sta f\u00f6r att torpedera Ukraina vet vi och Ukraina har v\u00e4l gett upp om USA egentligen. Trump is Krasnov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men eftersom vi har EU medlemskapet som p\u00e5tryckning m\u00e5ste dom g\u00f6ra som vi s\u00e4ger, att dom slutade bek\u00e4mpa m\u00e5l i \u00d6stersj\u00f6n \u00e4r antingen en stridspaus eller s\u00e5 har vi bett dom sluta \u2013 tiden tolkar tystnaden \u00e5t oss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lettlands regering fick avg\u00e5 f\u00f6r att en ukrainsk dr\u00f6nare st\u00f6rtade inne p\u00e5 deras territorium och Polen har flera g\u00e5nger bett Ukraina sluta destabilisera i deras n\u00e4romr\u00e5de.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den logiska vurpan \u00e4r naturligtvis monumental eftersom alla med lite direktinformation f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att Ryssland kommer ge sig p\u00e5 Baltikum h\u00e4rn\u00e4st \u2013 inte minst balterna sj\u00e4lva f\u00f6rst\u00e5r det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Att d\u00e5 be Ukraina sluta st\u00f6ka runt f\u00f6r att sen n\u00e4r dom blir anfallna eftersom Ukraina avh\u00f6ll sig b\u00f6rja gallskrika om ukrainsk hj\u00e4lp f\u00e5r man ingen medalj f\u00f6r utom fegismedaljen i bakelit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deras 40dgrs strategiska bombkampanj var ett rungande underverk och nu forts\u00e4tter dom att bek\u00e4mpa h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l \u00f6ver hela ytan i Ryssland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det g\u00e5r knappt att h\u00e4nga med men Sevastopol har upph\u00f6rt som flottbas nu, LV p\u00e5 Krim snudd p\u00e5 borta, bakom s\u00f6dra fronten flyget UA med markattack, h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdig industri sm\u00e4ller dagligen och dom tog kriget till Moskva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det har \u00e4ven bek\u00e4mpats en del spetsflyg p\u00e5 baser n\u00e5n g\u00e5ng i veckan och dom gav sig p\u00e5 ballistiska robotramper ig\u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Har s\u00e4kert 10st attacker p\u00e5 raffinaderier sedan senaste uppdateringen f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra veckor sedan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraina g\u00f6r skada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flera h\u00f6ga generaler har d\u00f6tt senaste m\u00e5naderna s\u00e5 f\u00f6rmodligen har dom aktiverat sin Mossad 2.0 nu \u00e4ven om en del \u00e4r interna maktstrider i Ryssland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De ryska \u201dbefrielsefronterna\u201d som tidigare var sex stycken, f\u00f6rmodligen fler idag, arbetar nu tillsammans med Ukraina och ATESH f\u00f6r att utf\u00f6ra befrielsed\u00e5d inne i Ryssland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Till exempel h\u00e5ller ATESH p\u00e5 och utf\u00f6r befrielsed\u00e5d mot det ryska t\u00e5gn\u00e4tet konstant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraina f\u00f6r assymetriskt krigf\u00f6ring \u00f6ver hela ytan och v\u00e4ldigt f\u00e5 m\u00e5l finns kvar \u2013 Yamal cross, kertjbron och Kreml typ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dom har kontakter med delrepubliker som v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 r\u00e4tt tillf\u00e4lle och opposition i Ryssland som ocks\u00e5 v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 sitt tillf\u00e4lle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DPR och LPR har f\u00e5tt ett erbjudande att om dom l\u00e4gger ned vapnen vid r\u00e4tt tidpunkt, eller v\u00e4nder vapnen mot ryssarna, s\u00e5 stryks det ett streck \u00f6ver gamla synder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men tillf\u00e4llet f\u00f6r niv\u00e5 wizardlevel m\u00e5ste vara r\u00e4tt \u2013 Ryssland har nu s\u00e4kert \u00f6ver halvmiljonen i v\u00e4lutrustade inrikesf\u00f6rband dom kan poola ihop till omr\u00e5den som blir oroliga i imperiet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Om ni minns inl\u00e4ggen 2022 och fram\u00e5t beskrev vi hur ledare i v\u00e4st \u00e4r r\u00e4dda f\u00f6r Putin, de som v\u00e5gade h\u00f6ja r\u00f6sten \u00e5kte p\u00e5 demonstrationer fr\u00e5n v\u00e4nster-h\u00f6gerkanterna, politiskt kaos, inkriminerande information som sl\u00e4pptes och p\u00e5 andra s\u00e4tt blev deras liv som politiker miserabla s\u00e5 v\u00e4ldigt m\u00e5nga drog sig v\u00e4ldigt l\u00e4nge f\u00f6r att kalla en spade en spade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag gissade att det var den svarta m\u00f6rka hemligheten ingen ville prata om \u2013 att alla f\u00f6rstod att om du blir frontfigur kommer en enorm j\u00e4tteattack av subversiv verksamhet mot dig och ditt land s\u00e5 politisk \u00f6verlevnad dikterade n\u00e4stan att du l\u00e4mnar Putin ifred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enda g\u00e5ngen vi vet att Ryssland hotat var n\u00e4r belgiska Euroclear f\u00f6rst skulle sl\u00e4ppa alla frysta oligarkmiljarder till Ukraina f\u00f6r att sedan tv\u00e4rv\u00e4nda \u2013 ansvariga p\u00e5 Euroclear och politiker hade blivit hotade av Ryssland sades det sen i media. Gr\u00e4nsen passerades v\u00e4l av oss kanske?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nere p\u00e5 Balkan har RU f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt m\u00f6rda vettiga politiker och sen flagrant valfusk men dom h\u00f6ll emot \u2013 Ryssland kallade dom odemokratiska och diktatoriska.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu 2026 \u00e4r det all-in, i rysslands tycke har Europa g\u00e5tt f\u00f6r l\u00e5ngt nu \u2013 Trump \u00e4r fullt aktiverad, sabotagegrupper har dragit ig\u00e5ng och all politisk p\u00e5verkan och betalda landsf\u00f6rr\u00e4dare har f\u00e5tt sina instruktioner. Tidningar duschas i inkriminerande information, p\u00e5hittad eller sann. Nyligen var det spektakul\u00e4ra hackerattacker mot till exempel Luxemburgfonderna s\u00e5 snart vet vi v\u00e4l vilka i regeringen som har ett hemligt sparkonto dom undanh\u00e5ller beskattning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Direkt hybridkrigf\u00f6ring genom trafficking, skogsbr\u00e4nder och f\u00f6rs\u00f6k till d\u00e5d mot h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l \u00e4r nu s\u00e5 pass l\u00e5ngt g\u00e5nget att Baltikum, Polen och Finland g\u00e5tt upp i stabsl\u00e4ge f\u00f6r skydd av h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sj\u00e4lvklart \u00e4r m\u00e5let att f\u00e5 oss att \u00f6verge Ukraina vilket vi nog inte g\u00f6r men det akuta \u00e4r f\u00f6ljande \u2013 Om Putin uppn\u00e5r stridsm\u00e5len med Luhansk och Donetsk Oblasts inom n\u00e5t \u00e5r och g\u00e5r d\u00e4refter ut med att dom nu vill ha fred, eldupph\u00f6r och v\u00e4rldsfred f\u00f6r att skydda barnen (dom som inte tortyrm\u00f6rdats av Ryssland).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Klarar vi vid den tidpunkten av att h\u00e5lla emot med tomma LNG tankar, fullt hybridkrig och halvd\u00e5lig rustningsindustri eftersom Kina slutat exportera de nyckelkomponenter vi beh\u00f6ver?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e4r \u00e4r v\u00e4gvalet f\u00f6r Europa som kommer forma oss kommande 100\u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Med lite tur hinner Ukraina f\u00f6rst och korthuset faller men g\u00f6r dom inte det \u00e4r detta ett beslut vi i Europa \u00e4ger f\u00f6r all framtid, inte bara vi utan v\u00e5ra barn och deras barn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi m\u00e5ste n\u00e4stan n\u00e5 niv\u00e5n snart att vi accepterar att vi befinner oss i hybridkrig och b\u00f6rja m\u00f6ta detta hot proportionerligt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fullt krig ska vi inte beh\u00f6va hamna i om vi inte underl\u00e5ter att f\u00f6rsvara Baltikum s\u00e5 Ryssland k\u00e4nner att dom inte kan f\u00f6rsitta den chansen och den punkten n\u00e4rmar vi oss nog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sen har vi \u00e4ven ett till beslut att fatta \u2013 kommer vi f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka bist\u00e5 v\u00e5ra \u00f6ar av v\u00e4nner runtom i v\u00e4rlden, de som nu valde oss n\u00e4r det valet beh\u00f6vde g\u00f6ras?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag t\u00e4nker p\u00e5 Japan, Taiwan, Sydkorea, Thailand, Australien, Nya Zeeland, flera l\u00e4nder i Afrika, Armenien, Georgien, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Island, Gr\u00f6nland, Svalbard och Kanada?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Flikar in ett inl\u00e4gg om fronterna, Eftersom Ukraina nu respekterar full OPSEC och det inkluderar osintarna f\u00e5r vi v\u00e4ldigt lite 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