{"id":5994,"date":"2022-03-18T09:56:02","date_gmt":"2022-03-18T08:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-03-18\/"},"modified":"2022-03-18T09:56:02","modified_gmt":"2022-03-18T08:56:02","slug":"2022-03-18","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-03-18\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-03-18"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:56<\/h2>\n

Som bloggen v\u00e4l skrev ig\u00e5r har 28th Mechanized brigade deltagit i anfallet mot Mykolaiv – Kherson, man har allts\u00e5 rullat upp den fr\u00e5n Odesa men l\u00e4mnat 5th Tanks Brigade kvar d\u00e4r.
\n—
\nDe ryska f\u00f6rband som slagits norr om Mykolaiv har vi v\u00e4l inte h\u00f6rt alltf\u00f6r mycket om men dom hade ju brett ut sig som lite av en solfj\u00e4der V och N om Mykolaiv s\u00e5 det finns v\u00e4l en rimlig chans att avskurna f\u00f6rband finns kvar i omr\u00e5det nu n\u00e4r det gick s\u00e5 snabbt ned mot Kherson.
\n—
\nEn snabb titt p\u00e5 kartan, 80th Air Assault brigade och 59th Mechanized brigade var redan i strid runt Mykolaiv och det \u00e4r v\u00e4l troligt att \u00e4ven 17th Tank brigade har satts in. Det \u00e4r allts\u00e5 4 av ukrainas tyngsta och erfarna brigader som deltar i anfallet mot Kherson. Striderna har v\u00e4l dessutom p\u00e5 denna sidan Dnepr varit l\u00e4ttare s\u00e5 man kan anta att stridsv\u00e4rdet \u00e4r h\u00f6gt.
\n—
\nEn \u00f6verg\u00e5ng av Dnepr torde vi h\u00f6ra om ganska omedelbart s\u00e5 man kan v\u00e4l anta att det inte skett \u00e4nnu.
\n—
\nN\u00e5gon i tr\u00e5den som vet vilka f\u00f6rband ryssarna har v\u00e4ster om Dnepr och vad som finns mellan Tomak – Mauriopol – norra Krim? Jag t\u00e4nker vad Ukraina har emot sig om dom skulle sl\u00e5 \u00f6sterut mot Mauriopol.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:19<\/h3>\n

Nu f\u00f6rst\u00e5r jag hur du t\u00e4nker KLASA, du tolkar mina inl\u00e4gg som att Ukraina kommer rulla in i Mauriopol imorgon.
\nJag kanske blir lite ivrig men ett anfall av denna digniteten kommer spela ut sig under ett par veckor f\u00f6rmodligen om Ukraina \u00e4r skyndar l\u00e5ngsamt.
\n—
\nDet stora fr\u00e5getecknet \u00e4r var dom korsar Dnepr och jag tror det blir avg\u00f6rande f\u00f6r hur dom agerar efter det. Det kan mycket v\u00e4l t\u00e4nkas att dom inte kommer \u00f6ver vid Kherson och Kakhokta och f\u00e5r k\u00f6ra runt via Dnipro men d\u00e5 har dom iallafall rensat all terr\u00e4ng v\u00e4ster om Dnepr till att b\u00f6rja med.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:42<\/h3>\n

Nu f\u00e5r jag all information fr\u00e5n websidor som ocks\u00e5 ryssarna l\u00e4ser s\u00e5 ingen direkt fara och att jag bryter mot ”en svensk h\u00e5ller truten” \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Nedan karta uppger sj\u00e4lva att den skall vara uppdaterad,
\nhttps:\/\/militaryland.net\/ukraine\/deployment-map\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Jag tycker den st\u00e4mmer relativt bra med info. vi f\u00e5r och sen g\u00f6r jag logiska antaganden, dvs. 80th air mobile ligger grupperad i stridsomr\u00e5det och man har flyttat upp 28th Mechanized, d\u00e5 b\u00f6r rimligen 80th air mobile ocks\u00e5 strida.
\n—
\nJag kanske skriver lite definitivt ibland i ivern<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:56<\/h2>\n

Putin har fanken helt tappat greppet om verkligheten. S\u00e5 f\u00f6r att han skall kunna h\u00e5lla ett tal i Moskva skall ett tjugotal flygplan snurra runt helt planl\u00f6st. Detta samtidigt som hans arme f\u00f6rbl\u00f6der i Ukraina och skulle beh\u00f6va underh\u00e5ll som dessa 20 plan kunde leverera.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:43<\/h2>\n

Vi har ju spekulerat i att ”ryssarna h\u00e5ller tillbaka sina b\u00e4sta f\u00f6rband och b\u00f6rjar med tredjesorteringen” och att dom skulle klippa till snart. \u00d6ver tid har vi v\u00e4l f\u00f6rst\u00e5tt att det b\u00e4sta dom hade av man\u00f6verbataljonerna mechanized, armour och rifles \u00e4r en tredjesortering.
\n—
\nVad vi inte diskurat \u00e4nnu \u00e4r om Ukraina kanske har gjort s\u00e5, Ryssarna har slagit sig blodiga mot National Guards och mindre tunga f\u00f6rband och de riktiga elefanterna har h\u00e5llits tillbaka?
\nP\u00e5 sina h\u00e5ll fick man ju s\u00e4tta in dom f\u00f6r att linjen skulle h\u00e5lla men det skulle inte f\u00f6rv\u00e5na mig om det blir mer mekaniserad strid fr\u00e5n Ukrainas sida.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:49<\/h2>\n

17:12 kommentaren, exakt s\u00e5 f\u00f6r att detta skall deeskalera m\u00e5ste Ukraina lyckas med n\u00e5got spektakul\u00e4rt, typ masskapitulation, f\u00f6r att ryska folket skall f\u00f6rst\u00e5 att kejsaren \u00e4r naken och avs\u00e4tta honom.
\n—
\nTill\u00e5ts Putin en out slingrar han sig igenom den och kan i lugn och ro rusta upp Ryska armen till ett riktigt hot om 10\u00e5r.
\n—
\nDet \u00e4r min starka f\u00f6rhoppning att Ukraina kan klippa till \u00f6sterut fr\u00e5n Kherson och n\u00e5 ett lokalt avg\u00f6rande som kanske r\u00e4cker men det gnager ocks\u00e5 lite h\u00e4r att dom inte gjort s\u00e5 pass stor framryckning som det verkade ett tag.
\n—
\nEn frusen konflikt och vi har kalla kriget 2.0 vilket kommer suga. Utg\u00e5ngen blir ju densamma men hela EU kommer leva i en konstant krigsf\u00f6rberedelse i 10\u00e5r.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:23<\/h2>\n

Man f\u00e5r ge ryssarna att dom leder fr\u00e5n fronten.
\nhttps:\/\/mobile.twitter.com\/TheDeadDistrict\/status\/1504916368302424066?cxt=HHwWhICy1dXdxOIpAAAA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:46<\/h2>\n

Detta f\u00e5r vi nog anledning att \u00e5terkomma till men Ukraina har l\u00e4rt sig 3D strid, eld, r\u00f6relse, indirekt eld, infiltration, eld\u00f6verfall, mekaniserad strid och dr\u00f6nare som \u00e4r det nya svarta.
\n—
\nDet har varit lite sv\u00e5rt att bek\u00e4mpa framryckande Ryska f\u00f6rband i r\u00f6relse men om nu Ryssarna f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker gr\u00e4va ned sig blir dom ju mycket l\u00e4tta m\u00e5l f\u00f6r ukrainska artspanare som verkar flyga dr\u00f6nare nuf\u00f6rtiden. Man kan helt sonika plocka bort allt som g\u00e5r att bek\u00e4mpa, fordon, pansar, staber, underh\u00e5ll och sen b\u00f6rja nafsa p\u00e5 st\u00e4llningarna nattetid med sm\u00e5 r\u00f6rliga grupper.
\n—
\nVi har inte riktigt kommit dit \u00e4nnu men om Ukrainska mekaniserade motoffensiver inte ger det snabba avg\u00f6randet i s\u00f6der som man f\u00e5r hoppas att det g\u00f6r s\u00e5 kommer denna 3D strid att n\u00f6ta ned det ryska f\u00f6rsvaret r\u00e4tt snabbt, det kommer bli sk1tsv\u00e5rt att frysa kriget f\u00f6r Putin. Vi har v\u00e4l \u00e5tminstone 1.5-2 m\u00e5nader kvar innan v\u00e4dret blir bra och underh\u00e5llet h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 att sl\u00e5s ut, dep\u00e5er, knytpunkter, j\u00e4rnv\u00e4gsknutar och de s\u00e5 v\u00e4rdefulla tankbilarna.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:55<\/h2>\n

Nu har Liveuamap uppdaterat efter striderna vid Mykolaiv, ni kan v\u00e4lja dagar och fr\u00e5n den 10 Mars som var en solfj\u00e4der ut fr\u00e5n Mykolaiv har ryssarna blivit tillbakatryckta halvv\u00e4gs till Kherson.
\nhttps:\/\/liveuamap.com\/en\/time\/18.03.2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:56 Som bloggen v\u00e4l skrev ig\u00e5r har 28th Mechanized brigade deltagit i anfallet mot Mykolaiv – Kherson, man har allts\u00e5 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