{"id":5998,"date":"2022-03-22T10:00:56","date_gmt":"2022-03-22T09:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-03-22\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T17:00:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T15:00:20","slug":"2022-03-22","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-03-22\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-03-22"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:00<\/h2>\n

Eftersom jag gissat om 80th Air Assault brigade tidigare s\u00e5 \u00e4r det v\u00e4l bra att vi vet att dom ocks\u00e5 \u00e4r med i anfallet mot Kherson som iofs verkar vara strid \u00f6ver hela ytan mellan Mykolaiv och ned till utanf\u00f6r Kherson.<\/p>\n

”Ukrainian 80th AirAssault Brigade liberated a number of settlements in Mykolaiv Oblast, most likely in the north near Pisky and Inhulka. We\u2019re waiting for more details”.
\nhttps:\/\/militaryland.net\/ukraine\/invasion-day-26-summary\/<\/a>
\n—
\nVi vet att dom rullat upp 28th Mechanized fr\u00e5n Odessa sedan tidigare.
\n—
\nJag har gissat att 59th Mechanized ocks\u00e5 deltar i striderna mot Kherson samt att 17th Tank brigade skulle vara med men dom f\u00f6r f\u00f6rmodligen avv\u00e4rjningsstrid mot Ryssarnas anfall mot Krivoj Rog.
\n—
\nVi har allts\u00e5 fyra av Ukrainas b\u00e4sta brigader i denna strid och om ni tittar p\u00e5 kartan s\u00e5 tycker jag det ser ut som att dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker komma SV in mot Kherson, kanske inom artilleriavst\u00e5nd f\u00f6r att sl\u00e5 ut bron eller f\u00f6rv\u00e4gra ryssarna tilltr\u00e4de till bron genom direkt beskjutning fr\u00e5n Stridsvagn? Alla som gjort lumpen minns v\u00e4l att man inte beh\u00f6vde ligga i v\u00e4gkorsningen utan bara inom skjutavst\u00e5nd f\u00f6r att den skulle r\u00e4knas som tagen \ud83d\ude42
\n—
\nP\u00e5 kartan ser det ocks\u00e5 ut som en liten landtunga Ukrainarna kontrollerar ned mot Kakhovka som \u00e4r den andra \u00f6verg\u00e5ngen men det kanske snarare beror p\u00e5 att ryssarna anv\u00e4nder v\u00e4garna och mark emellan ej r\u00e4knas som att dom kontrollerar f\u00f6r den \u00e4r mitt emellan tv\u00e5 anfallskilar. Dock s\u00e5 \u00e4r ju skjutavst\u00e5nd till den bron lika viktigt som skjutavst\u00e5nd mot bron i Kherson.
\n—
\nF\u00e5r jag gissa igen s\u00e5 tror jag att reserverna SV om Kiev, 3rd Tank brigade och 15th Mechanized inte har flyttats ned d\u00e5 det fortfarande finns en risk att Belarus traskar \u00f6ver gr\u00e4nsen alternativt anv\u00e4nds dom i detta nu f\u00f6r att rulla upp inringningen mot Kiev. Hur som, tror inte dom \u00e4r nere vid Kherson.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:17<\/h2>\n

Hittar inte mycket om Mariopol men innan Putin kan paradera tillf\u00e5ngatagna soldater springer dom omkring d\u00e4r fortfarande.
\n—
\nJag ser fortfarande inte hur dom kan unds\u00e4ttas annat \u00e4n genom ett v\u00e4ldigt aktivt fria krig \u00f6ver hela ytan vid den s\u00f6dra fronten och dr\u00f6narattacker mot de v\u00e4rsta vapnen, fartygen, TOS1 och MLRS.
\n—
\nJag tror det skulle vara moralh\u00f6jande f\u00f6r Ukraina att se filmer fr\u00e5n stridande flinande ukrainare i Mariopol och hoppas dom postar. Nu har v\u00e4l marininfanteriet landat d\u00e4r och enligt bloggaren skickar dom f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar fr\u00e5n norra fronten ned dit men man f\u00e5r hoppas att Ukraina kan dra ig\u00e5ng n\u00e5gra motoffensiver l\u00e4ngs med norra-\u00f6stra fronten s\u00e5 det l\u00e5ser upp dessa f\u00f6rband. Dock s\u00e5 k\u00f6r man fram reserver fr\u00e5n hela ryssland s\u00e5 brist p\u00e5 soldater attf\u00f6rs\u00f6ka storma Mariopol \u00e4r det tyv\u00e4rr inte. V\u00e4gen upp fr\u00e5n Rostov-na-Don m\u00e5ste blir kolonnen 2.0 j\u00e4drigt snabbt men man kan dessv\u00e4rre k\u00f6ra in dom med b\u00e5t till Berdyansk eller via Krim.
\n—
\nSom tidigare sagt, enda s\u00e4ttet f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsvararna \u00e4r r\u00f6rlig strid i grupps och plutons storlek \u00f6ver hela ytan hela tiden, dag och natt. Ammunition snor dom fr\u00e5n ryssarna. Klarar dom detta kan det nog g\u00e5 v\u00e4gen f\u00f6r 4 brigader \u00e4r inte sm\u00e5potatis och det \u00e4r elitf\u00f6rband med stridsvana. Ryssarna har hittills inte klarat att m\u00f6ta denna typ av strid men kan dom boxa in f\u00f6rband i geografiska omr\u00e5den, omringa och sen i stort sett storma \u00f6ver dom g\u00e5r det att nedk\u00e4mpa men sm\u00e5 r\u00f6rliga grupper hala som \u00e5lar f\u00e5r man s\u00e4llan tag i och f\u00e5r man det \u00e4r en f\u00f6rlorad grupp inget avg\u00f6rande.
\n—
\nHur som, vilka absolut hj\u00e4ltar som h\u00e5ller ut!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:41<\/h2>\n

Jag v\u00e4ljer att ignorera hot eller varningar om C-stridsmedel, anfall mot Polen, taktisk k\u00e4rnladdning osv.
\nF\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta \u00e4r det om\u00f6jligt att avg\u00f6ra om det \u00e4r psyops eller inte och f\u00f6r det andra skall det skr\u00e4mma oss till underkastelse. V\u00e4st \u00e4r skyldiga f\u00f6rsvararna av Mariopol att inte ens blinka tycker jag.
\n—
\nDen dagen Putin lyckas f\u00e5r n\u00e5n milit\u00e4r enhet att sl\u00e4ppa C-stridsmedel eller en taktisk k\u00e4rnladdning \u00e4r det ett helt nytt l\u00e4ge och jag tror inte f\u00f6r en sekund att v\u00e4st kommer l\u00e5ta det passera utan klippa till rej\u00e4lt f\u00f6r d\u00e5 \u00e4r det helt pl\u00f6tsligt sj\u00e4lvbevarelsedriften som kickar in.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:52<\/h3>\n

Om detta st\u00e4mmer;<\/p>\n

Oj, ryssarna har inte mer \u00e4n 11 BTGs som anfaller fr\u00e5n \u00f6ver Dnepr vid Kherson…
\nUkraina har ju kanske samma numer\u00e4r bara i mekaniserat och pansar och hur mycket skytte som helst.
\n11 X 600 eller n\u00e5t \u00e4r en rej\u00e4l sm\u00e4ll f\u00f6r Ryssland n\u00e4r dom inte kan retirerar \u00f6ver Dnepr inom en inte alltf\u00f6r snar framtid.
\nBlir en fin filmsekvens n\u00e4r man radar upp dom p\u00e5 ett f\u00e4lt och Anonymous hackar in videon p\u00e5 varenda statlig TV kanal i Ryssland.
\n—
\nDet \u00e4r inte heller n\u00e5gra oerh\u00f6rda m\u00e4ngder mot Mariopol, 14 BTG mot Ukrainas 4 brigader. D\u00e5 \u00e4r v\u00e4l inte marininfanteri, VDV, Rebeller inr\u00e4knat gissar jag.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:56<\/h3>\n

Summerar man ihop allt l\u00e4ngs hela fronten har Ryssarna inte numer\u00e4rt \u00f6vertag av dessa BTG. Till det kommer v\u00e4l VDV och annat sm\u00e5tt och gott och Ukrainas stora numer\u00e4r \u00e4r National Guard och TA f\u00f6rband men det \u00e4r ju inte direkt n\u00e5gon f\u00f6rkrossande \u00f6vermakt p\u00e5 denna kartan?
\n—
\nFaktum \u00e4r att om dom kan sl\u00e5 Ryssarna v\u00e4ster om Dnepr vid Kherson och sen f\u00e5 fram brigaderna via Zaporozny – Med Luftv\u00e4rn som n\u00e5gon anv\u00e4ndare st\u00e4ndigt skriver – s\u00e5 b\u00f6r dom kunna sl\u00e5 ned mot Mariopol d\u00e5 det bara \u00e4r 6 BTG i omr\u00e5det och ett par s\u00e4kert k\u00f6r p\u00e5 mot Mariopol.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

20:30<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

19:47. tittar man p\u00e5 nedan karta som postades av n\u00e5gon i tr\u00e5den s\u00e5 \u00e4r 13BTG inte orimligt om Ukrainarna tagit Hostomel. Det \u00e4r v\u00e4l is\u00e5fall \u2013 vad som \u00e4r kvar \u2013 av 13BTG.
https:\/\/twitter.com\/HN_Schlottman\/status\/1505687044349177861\/photo\/1<\/a>
\u2014
Nu \u00e4r det lite olyckligt f\u00f6r ryssarna detta f\u00f6r det \u00e4r det absolut NV h\u00f6rnet av frontlinjen dom torskat p\u00e5 s\u00e5 inte helt enkelt att dra ig\u00e5ng en r\u00e4ddningsoperation d\u00e4r. Speciellt om Ukraina h\u00e5ller trycket uppe vid resten av fronten.
\u2014
Om inte Belarus g\u00e5r med i kriget nu g\u00f6r dom det aldrig, Putin m\u00e5ste pratskrika i telefon med Lukashenko just nu n\u00e4r han fr\u00e5gar hur det st\u00e5r till med den belarusiska stridsviljan.
\u2014
Detta kommer trigga en kraftig reaktion fr\u00e5n Ryssland, n\u00e5gon avledningsman\u00f6ver av stor kaliber och sen ett f\u00f6rs\u00f6k till unds\u00e4ttning av de inringade f\u00f6r det \u00e4r en f\u00f6r stor m\u00e4ngd soldater som skulle ge upp och paraderas p\u00e5 f\u00e4lten f\u00f6r filmer som sedan sprids i Ryssland, det skulle sl\u00e5 h\u00e5rt mot narrativet att Ryssland just nu vinner.
\u2014
N\u00e4sta som kommer h\u00e4nda \u00e4r att Ryssarna blir avklippta vid Kherson, 7-11BTG eller vad som \u00e4r kvar av dom och d\u00e5 har Putin tv\u00e5 inringningar p\u00e5 de tv\u00e5 kanterna av en mycker l\u00e5ng front, det kommer inte att g\u00e5 att l\u00f6sa b\u00e5da s\u00e5 minst en blir masskapitulation.
\u2014
Vad som \u00e4n h\u00e4nder s\u00e5 kommer trycket mot Mariopol att l\u00e4tta s\u00e5 kan dom bara h\u00e5lla ut n\u00e5n m\u00e5nad till b\u00f6r det vara vinst f\u00f6r Ukraina. Nu h\u00f6r det v\u00e4l till saken att Ukraina KAN f\u00f6rlora Mariopol men Ryssland kan inte f\u00f6rlora 25BTG.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:00 Eftersom jag gissat om 80th Air Assault brigade tidigare s\u00e5 \u00e4r det v\u00e4l bra att vi vet att dom […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[33,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arkiv01","category-ukraina"],"yoast_head":"\n2022-03-22 - 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