{"id":6026,"date":"2022-03-24T12:16:19","date_gmt":"2022-03-24T11:16:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-03-24\/"},"modified":"2022-03-24T12:16:19","modified_gmt":"2022-03-24T11:16:19","slug":"2022-03-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-03-24\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-03-24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:16<\/h2>\n

L\u00e4gger ni ihop pusslet h\u00e4r s\u00e5 har det skett ett flertal stora sm\u00e4llar mot underh\u00e5llsdep\u00e5er senaste veckan…
\n-tankvagnarna har hoppat upp med n\u00e5t t\u00e5gset eller s\u00e5 i f\u00f6rlustsiffrorna.
\n-Berdyansk var en pr\u00e4ktig sm\u00e4ll d\u00e4r mycket ammunition och drivmedel r\u00f6k.
\n-sm\u00e4llar i Belarus som var ”\u00f6vning”.
\n-ammunitionsdep\u00e5 i Luhansk som ”ryssarna skj\u00f6t ut sj\u00e4lva”.
\nS\u00e4kert n\u00e5t mer vi inte k\u00e4nner till, Belgorod tyckte jag gled f\u00f6rbi i fl\u00f6det men hittar inget.
\nAntingen har man infiltrerat p\u00e5 djupet p\u00e5 riktigt eller s\u00e5 har Ukraina f\u00e5tt, eller h\u00e4vdat att dom f\u00e5tt… b\u00e4ttre fj\u00e4rrbek\u00e4mpningskapacitet (allts\u00e5 covert-ops av v\u00e4st).
\n—
\nI Berdyansk ser det v\u00e4l som bloggaren skriver ut som en direktr\u00e4ff med ett precisionsvapen. Det ligger inte p\u00e5 artilleriavst\u00e5nd fr\u00e5n Mariopol och jag vet inte vad r\u00e4ckvidden f\u00f6r turkiska dr\u00f6narna \u00e4r men det \u00e4r lite off.
\n—
\nRostov-na-Don \u00e4r f\u00f6rmodligen en viktig underh\u00e5llshub nu och v\u00e4gen in mot Ukraina borde vara prioriterat m\u00e5l att f\u00e5 stopp p\u00e5 och d\u00e4r b\u00f6r man ha enorma dep\u00e5er.
\n—
\nT\u00e4nker man en v\u00e4nda till s\u00e5 skulle dolda v\u00e4stliga operationer att sl\u00e5 ut allt underh\u00e5ll som f\u00e5r slut p\u00e5 kriget vara o\u00e4ndligt mycket mer enkelt f\u00f6r v\u00e4st \u00e4n att dom inf\u00f6rde en no-fly zone eller krig med NATO. D\u00e5 kommer ju den ryska invasionsarmen till sist \u00f6verge sina positioner och traska hem till Ryssland helt f\u00f6r egen maskin. Donbass och Krim ryker av bara farten.
\n—
\nMan f\u00e5r kanske gissa att TOS-1 runt Mariopol inte heller finns kvar d\u00e5 dom var en gamechanger och kanske MLRS ocks\u00e5? Ocks\u00e5 n\u00e5gon som sett ”till salu” annonserna f\u00f6r l\u00e4genheter p\u00e5 Krim g\u00e5 upp med n\u00e5n miljon procent och alla som ville s\u00e4lja var ryssar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:22<\/h3>\n

Jag vet att jag inte \u00e4r objektiv men i tider av krig som detta n\u00e4r Ryssland \u00e4r agressor \u00e4r det fel att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka ge b\u00e5da sidors perspektiv.
\nMan skall som media ENDAST ge r\u00e4tt sidas perspektiv och \u00e4ven om dom \u00f6verdriver och man anser sig falla f\u00f6r propaganda skall man \u00e5terge det med ”Ukrainska k\u00e4llor uppger”.
\nDet beror p\u00e5 att v\u00e4st nu beh\u00f6ver ett odelat st\u00f6d f\u00f6r Ukraina, vi f\u00e5r inte vackla eller bli r\u00e4dda och det g\u00f6rs b\u00e4st genom att man \u00e5terger det den Ukrainska sidan vill att man skall \u00e5terge.
\nAtt P\u00c5 N\u00c5GOT S\u00c4TT skuldbel\u00e4gga Ukraina eller ha f\u00f6rst\u00e5else f\u00f6r Ryssland \u00e4r det inte r\u00e4tt l\u00e4ge f\u00f6r nu, det f\u00e5r historikerna tvista om senare.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:41<\/h2>\n

Vet att jag tjatar om Kherson och att allas \u00f6gon \u00e4r p\u00e5 Kiev-mottin men det \u00e4r allts\u00e5 full fart runt Kherson fortfarande,
\n”Heavy battles on the border of Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Ukrainian army shot down an aircraft and cruise missile overnight – Head of Mykolaiv regional administration”.
\nhttps:\/\/liveuamap.com\/<\/a>
\nStanislav – Oleksandrivka \u00e4r i Ukrainsk hand.
\nDet \u00c4R sk1tsv\u00e5rt att underh\u00e5lla f\u00f6rbanden v\u00e4ster om Dnepr f\u00f6r Ryssarna och det \u00e4r vad\u00e5, resterna av 7-8BTG som kommer bli inringade s\u00e5 en pr\u00e4ktig vinst f\u00f6r Ukraina som jag tror man redan kan r\u00e4kna hem.
\n—
\nSen f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker ju Ryssarna sig p\u00e5 en inringning vid Izyum av en b\u00e5ge av stillest\u00e5ndslinjen men ser inte att det g\u00e5r bra alls med tanke p\u00e5 f\u00f6rlusterna dom tar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:55<\/h2>\n

Oj, tittar ni p\u00e5 nedan karta s\u00e5 har Ukraina flyttat 1-2 mekbrigader och 1 pansarbrigad fr\u00e5n V\u00e4ster om Dnepr till \u00f6ster om Dnepr, kanske via Zaporiznye?
\n—
\nJag TROR att dom f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkt uppe vid Kharkov och ocks\u00e5 frontlinjen norr om Mariopol. Vet att det var n\u00e5gon anv\u00e4ndare som h\u00e4vdade det scenariot n\u00e4r jag trodde dom skulle rulla \u00f6ver Dnepr av bara farten n\u00e4r Ryssarna flydde fr\u00e5n Mykolaiv och Kherson flygplats.
\n—
\nDetta betyder att dom r\u00e4knat hem striderna om Kherson redan… D\u00e4r verkar 35th Marine Corps brigade deltaga nu, vet inte riktigt var den varit stationerad innan. 80th Air mobile \u00e4r fortfarande aktiv i den striden och 28th Mechanized.
\n—
\nMan verkar helt sl\u00e4ppt f\u00f6rsvaret av Krivoj Rog och satsar p\u00e5 att klippa broarna \u00f6ver Kherson och Khakovka ist\u00e4llet, det signalerar en hel del om hur det g\u00e5r f\u00f6r Ryssarna v\u00e4ster om Dnepr att Ukraina flyttat bort tunga brigader.
\n—
\nDet vore ju v\u00e4lkommet om dessa elefanter kunde bryta inringningen av Mariopol…
\n—
\n17th Tank brigade \u00e4r sannolikt anledningen att ryssarna f\u00f6rbl\u00f6der vid Izyum.
\n—
\nVilken styrka att omfatta stora f\u00f6rband p\u00e5 kanterna och f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka mitten samt bygga upp f\u00f6r en st\u00f6t ned mot Mariopol. Fortfarande n\u00e5gon som inte tror att Ukraina kommer kasta ut ryssarna helt p\u00e5 egen hand \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:55<\/h3>\n

https:\/\/militaryland.net\/ukraine\/deployment-map\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:23<\/h2>\n

12:48 uppdateringen har vi v\u00e4l gissat oss till, att Ukraina skulle utnyttja lugnet mellan att v\u00e5g 1 k\u00f6rt slut och reserverna var p\u00e5 v\u00e4g. Ukraina g\u00f6r v\u00e4l precis detta och f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker f\u00e5 till ett avg\u00f6rande. F\u00f6rutsatt att Putin inte avs\u00e4tts s\u00e5 kommer det inte bli ett avg\u00f6rande s\u00e5 d\u00e5 f\u00e5r vi hoppas att mekbrigaderna norr om Mariopol kan bryta inringningen och att man tar s\u00e5 mycket terr\u00e4ng som m\u00f6jligt s\u00e5 ryssarna f\u00e5r ”b\u00f6rja om” i April.
\n—
\nPunkt tv\u00e5 \u00e4r att vi har gissat att reserverna kommer kastas in som dom kommer i striderna, de f\u00f6rsta reserverna nu m\u00e5ste ju f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka hj\u00e4lpa till med inringningen vid Kiev tex. Dom f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker inte existerande bataljons-brigadstrukturer f\u00f6r dom har skjutits bort s\u00e5 det blir helt nya f\u00f6rband som inte har erfarenhet av f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende m\u00e5nad – alla misstag kommer upprepas!
\n—
\nVad kommer att h\u00e4nda f\u00f6rutsatt att Putin inte snubblar p\u00e5 balkongr\u00e4cket?
\nV\u00e4ster om Dnepr vid Kherson och Khakovka kommer Ryssarna inte \u00f6ver igen.
\nRunt Kiev kommer det ocks\u00e5 bli lugnare och mina pengar \u00e4r p\u00e5 att man kastar in v\u00e4ldigt mycket f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka omfatta en del av stillest\u00e5ndslinjen, det som nu g\u00e5r \u00e5t helvete uppe vid Izyum.
\nDrar man en linje fr\u00e5n Kharkov – Dnipro och sen trycker p\u00e5 norrut fr\u00e5n s\u00f6dra offensiven har man en stor inringning.
\nDet var lite risk f\u00f6r det ett tag i b\u00f6rjan innan Ryssarna best\u00e4mde sig f\u00f6r att falla i dom enorma flugf\u00e4llorna Kharkov och Mariopol. Man f\u00e5r s\u00e5ledes gissa att dom l\u00e4rt sig och f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker sig p\u00e5 en egen omfattning.
\n—
\nVad kan Ukraina d\u00e5 g\u00f6ra? H\u00e5lla runt Kiev och i s\u00f6der v\u00e4ster om Dnepr och sedan forts\u00e4tta f\u00f6ra sitt 3D krig i omr\u00e5det Kharkov – Dnipro – Melitopol – Donetsk – Luhansk. Det \u00e4r en tillr\u00e4ckligt stor yta men Ukraina kommer ha sv\u00e5rt med underh\u00e5ll. Forts\u00e4tter dom sl\u00e5 mot Ryssarnas underh\u00e5ll och f\u00f6rv\u00e4grar dom luftrummet kan det nog g\u00e5 riktigt bra.
\nTvingas dom till en snabb retr\u00e4tt blir det blodbad.
\n—
\nGer man upp Ukraina \u00f6ster om Dnepr \u00e4r det en strategisk f\u00f6rlust, Putin fryser kriget och \u00f6ver tid kommer han \u00f6ka trycket och m\u00e5let kommer alltid vara en invasion av hela Ukraina.
\n—
\nParallellt med detta, kan man f\u00e5 ig\u00e5ng n\u00e5n revolution mot Belarus, i Ryssland eller i andra gamla republiker s\u00e5 skulle Putin tvingas f\u00f6ra f\u00f6rband dit. Min ide att k\u00f6ra en st\u00f6rre landstigningsflotta v\u00e4ldigt l\u00e5ngsamt mot Vladivostok tycker jag vore kul.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:49<\/h3>\n

Ja se d\u00e4r, Kherson var omstritt p\u00e5 Wikipediakartan \ud83d\ude42
\nN\u00e4sta sak som st\u00e5r ut \u00e4r att Ukraina kontrollerar ett par samh\u00e4llen mot Mariopol, tar dom Volnovakha kan det nog g\u00e5 att \u00f6ppna upp en korridor d\u00e4r. \u00c4r mariopol omringat tills Putin sl\u00e4pper l\u00f6s rond tv\u00e5 \u00e4r dom nog k\u00f6rda.
\n—
\nDet kommer ta tid f\u00f6r ryssarna att f\u00e5 fram reserver till den s\u00f6dra fronten s\u00e5 om Ukraina lyckas ta ned till Mariopol och bryta l\u00e4nken till Rostov-na-Don kan nog Ukraina n\u00e5 lokala framg\u00e5ngar n\u00e4rmaste m\u00e5naden mot de ryska f\u00f6rband som finns kvar Tokmak och s\u00f6derut, ingen inringning men driva dom \u00f6ver landtungan till Krim och t\u00e4ppa till?
\n—
\n\u00c5stadkommer man n\u00e5got i stil med ovan \u00e4r v\u00e4l hotet fr\u00e5n s\u00f6der n\u00e4stan eliminerat och man kan jobba med att h\u00e5lla \u00f6ster om Dnepr i norr och \u00f6ster?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:01<\/h2>\n

Den kartan som bloggaren postade med gult som Ukraina \u00e5tertagit, dom har i det tysta gjort ganska stora landvinningar vid Kherson.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Nrg8000\/status\/1506986354240294913?s=20&t=q31KTsH5jhNu8Krtcn-cZg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:16 L\u00e4gger ni ihop pusslet h\u00e4r s\u00e5 har det skett ett flertal stora sm\u00e4llar mot underh\u00e5llsdep\u00e5er senaste veckan… -tankvagnarna har 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