{"id":6028,"date":"2022-03-26T09:19:55","date_gmt":"2022-03-26T08:19:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-03-26\/"},"modified":"2022-03-26T09:19:55","modified_gmt":"2022-03-26T08:19:55","slug":"2022-03-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-03-26\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-03-26"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:19<\/h2>\n

Tas Kherson, eller att bron l\u00e4ggs under direkt eld, \u00e4r enda retr\u00e4ttv\u00e4gen f\u00f6r resterna av 6-8 BTG bron vid Khakovka.
\nDen ligger n\u00e4stg\u00e5rds och kan s\u00e5ledes snabbt f\u00f6rv\u00e4gras ryssarna s\u00e5 denna strid kan man nog r\u00e4kna hem.
\nNu blir inte detta strategiskt men en rej\u00e4l fj\u00e4der i hatten f\u00f6r ukraina. Tror inte dom kan underh\u00e5llas idag.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:12<\/h2>\n

Denna blev liggande utan att postas men tittar man p\u00e5 kartan och hur detta utvecklar sig och f\u00f6rutsatt att Belarus inte blandar sig i kriget s\u00e5 kommer Ukraina innan v\u00e5roffensiven (som kommer g\u00e5 \u00e5t helskotta inom n\u00e5n m\u00e5nad fr\u00e5n start) startar att ha;
\n-\u00e5terst\u00e4llt stillest\u00e5ndslinjen Mariopol – Donetsk samt befriat Mariopol.
\n-tryckt tillbaka ryssarna i s\u00f6der mot Krim, kanske fram till Melitopol
\n-ha bef\u00e4st Kherson och Kakhovka s\u00e5 passage 2.0 blir om\u00f6jlig.
\n-ha st\u00e4dat upp vid Kiev v\u00e4ster om Dnepr upp till gr\u00e4nsen.
\n-h\u00e5lla chernihiv-Sumy-Kharkov linjen
\n—
\nOmr\u00e5det som kommer bli livligt tycker jag vi f\u00e5tt tillr\u00e4ckligt med information om, ryssarna f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker om och om igen vid Izyum och \u00e5ker p\u00e5 konstant storstryk samt att Ukraina f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkt med 17th Tank brigade d\u00e4r. Det \u00e4r stort tryck s\u00e5ledes och tittar man p\u00e5 kartan ligger Izyum bra till f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka sig p\u00e5 en stor omringning av den gamla stillest\u00e5ndslinjen kanske ned till Donetsk.
\n—
\nDet \u00e4r i detta omr\u00e5de Kharkov – Dnipro – Mariopol – Donetsk – Luhansk som v\u00e5roffensiven kommer satsa p\u00e5 och d\u00e4r Ukraina kommer skicka sina mek och pansarbrigader. Sl\u00e4pper man omr\u00e5det f\u00e5r Putin sin out och kan frysa kriget och sen f\u00f6r alltid hota med en f\u00f6rnyad invasion som kommer komma. K\u00f6r Ukraina sin 3D strid och framf\u00f6rallt r\u00f6rligt med Mek och Pansar b\u00f6r det v\u00e4l g\u00e5 v\u00e4gen. En panikartad flykt mot Dnipro blir ett blodbad men det finns v\u00e4l inget som tyder p\u00e5 att Ryssarna kommer klara av att hantera Ukrainas r\u00f6rliga strid nu toppat med pansar, krigets f\u00f6rsta veckor h\u00f6ll man ju tillbaka mek och pansarbrigaderna i reserv s\u00e5 dom \u00e5kte ju p\u00e5 strorstryk av infanteribrigader och national guard f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka med plutoner av pansar\/IFV? Det f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkta luftv\u00e4rnet f\u00f6rl\u00e4ggs f\u00f6rslagsvis till detta omr\u00e5det. Ukraina har minst 6 mek och pansarbrigader i omr\u00e5det vilket inte \u00e4r sm\u00e5potatis och hittills har det ju g\u00e5tt utm\u00e4rkt att ”sp\u00e4 ut” dom med ett kompani infanteri som f\u00e5r en pluton strv eller IFV tilldelat och det finns s\u00e4kerligen 5-6 elitinfanteri brigader (airborne, special police osv.) i omr\u00e5det och ett stort antal infanteribrigader nu med stridserfarenhet och stridsv\u00e4rde. En stridsgrupp p\u00e5 100 000 eller n\u00e5t d\u00e4r man \u00e4r samtr\u00e4nade, fungerande samband och bef\u00e4lshierarki och h\u00f6gt stridsv\u00e4rde samt stridserfarenhet.
\n—
\nTerr\u00e4ngen \u00e4r en hel del skog vid Kharkov – Izyum. F\u00e5 v\u00e4gar l\u00e4ngre s\u00f6derut och Pavlograd ser ut som ett naturligt f\u00f6rsvar. Annars r\u00e4tt mycket \u00e5kermark i mitten s\u00e5 luftv\u00e4rnet kommer bli avg\u00f6rande om ryssarna lyckas trycka p\u00e5 s\u00e5 l\u00e5ngt.
\n—
\nJag tycker det finns sk\u00e4l f\u00f6r Donbass-rebellerna att vara oroliga och den ryska staben \u00e4r nog inte helt lyriska \u00f6ver sin v\u00e5roffensiv. Vi kommer se samma nyheter igen, ”500 ryska stridsvagnar mot Izyum”, ”ryssland tar Izyum”, ”dynget runt bombande mot XX”, ”ukrainska styrkor flyr fr\u00e5n Slovyansk och Kramatorsk”, typ…
\nOch sen n\u00e5n vecka senare n\u00e4r Ukraina f\u00e5tt ordning p\u00e5 allt blir det motoffensiv hela v\u00e4gen till nationsgr\u00e4nsen och kriget \u00e4r slut och Putin dinglar i f\u00f6tterna fr\u00e5n n\u00e5n bensinmack eller sitter och surar p\u00e5 en pall i Haag \ud83d\ude42
\n—
\nDet \u00e4r sorgligt att Putin kommer driva igenom denna andra offensiv som kommer bli blodigare \u00e4n det f\u00f6rsta fiaskot men jag ser inte hur Ryssland kan kn\u00e4ckas innan dess. Man s\u00e4tter sitt hopp till att denna g\u00e5ngen fungerar det vilket det s\u00e5klart inte kommer g\u00f6ra men hoppet \u00e4r v\u00e4l det sista som \u00f6verger en.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:56<\/h2>\n

Ni h\u00f6rde det f\u00f6rst h\u00e4r – om max en m\u00e5nad s\u00e5 kommer ett nytt narrativ pumpas ut av Putintrogna och Ryssland n\u00e4r offensiven har klingat av och dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker frysa fronten d\u00e4r dom st\u00e5r idag (om n\u00e5n m\u00e5nad).
\n”Ryssland vill ha fred och har upph\u00f6rt med alla aggression, Ukraina \u00e4r blodt\u00f6rstiga och f\u00f6r krig mot oss och d\u00f6dar Ryska pojkar, Ryssland kr\u00e4ver ett omedelbart eld upph\u00f6r och ett slut p\u00e5 alla stridigheter f\u00f6r att spara liv, vi vill ha fred”.
\nDet kommer vara den mest surrealistiska dagen n\u00e5gonsin n\u00e4r ni h\u00f6r svenskar som man misst\u00e4nkt lite f\u00f6r kreml-mys att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka peddla detta. Sen kommer svenska freds att b\u00f6na och be om eldupph\u00f6r f\u00f6r att r\u00e4dda liv.
\nI det skedet g\u00e4ller det att Ukraina trycker p\u00e5 tills Ryssen \u00e4r p\u00e5 andra sidan gr\u00e4nsen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:59<\/h2>\n

Japp Kherson kan vi nog r\u00e4kna hem, tror inte mycket lyckats retirera tillbaka \u00f6ver Dnepr s\u00e5 det blir nog en rej\u00e4l kapitulation. N\u00e4r Ukraina flyttade sina tunga brigader \u00f6ver Zaporoznye till \u00f6stra sidan Dnepr visste dom ju hur detta skulle sluta, dvs. knockout-seger.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:08<\/h2>\n

Sp\u00e4nnande, alla mek, pansar och elitf\u00f6rband \u00e4r borttagna fr\u00e5n nedan karta. D\u00e5 f\u00e5r man b\u00f6rja killgissa igen men det kan bara vara positivt, Ukraina har v\u00e4l n\u00e5got sp\u00e4nnande p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng.
\nhttps:\/\/militaryland.net\/ukraine\/deployment-map\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:45<\/h2>\n

\u00c5ter till Izyum och Ryssarnas f\u00f6rs\u00f6k till omfattning med sin kommande v\u00e5roffensiv. Tittar ni p\u00e5 kartan i terrain mode s\u00e5 g\u00e5r floden Samara f\u00f6rst norrut fr\u00e5n Dnipro och sen 90grader \u00f6sterut mot Pavlograd och f\u00f6rbi. OM Ryssarna skulle f\u00e5 f\u00f6r bra framdrivning kommer dom inte f\u00f6rbi det naturliga hindret och man f\u00f6r sedan r\u00f6rlig strid mellan Pavlograd – Donetsk.
\nDetta \u00e4r ju f\u00f6rutsatt att det g\u00e5r str\u00e5lande f\u00f6r ryssarna vilket det inte gjorts hittills. Dom skulle is\u00e5fall ta ungef\u00e4r Donetsk och Luhansk oblast i ett b\u00e4stascenario och ej fram till Dnepr.
\nDet strategiska v\u00e4rdet av Luhansk och Donetsk \u00e4r l\u00e5gt, s\u00e5 ungef\u00e4r ser nog ett v\u00e4rstascenario ut.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:15<\/h3>\n

Finnarna \u00e4r otroligt balanserade, man vill ha fred men f\u00f6rbereder sig f\u00f6r krig och dom har inte levt p\u00e5 lagrarna utan har ett mycket starkt f\u00f6rsvar. Polen likas\u00e5 tror jag. Baltstaterna vill v\u00e4l men dom \u00e4r f\u00f6r infiltrerade av Ryssland och f\u00f6r sm\u00e5 s\u00e5 dom hade nog kunnat bli halvenkla offer om NATO l\u00e4t dom \u00e4tas upp.
\n—
\nSverige har en mycket l\u00e5ng tradition av att inte f\u00f6rbereda sig f\u00f6r krig innan det \u00e4r f\u00f6r sent och sedan klara sig genom att vara polaren som sviker. Efter WW2 fick vi ju skadest\u00e5nd till Europa f\u00f6r att vi myst med Hitler men sossarna kallade det f\u00f6r att vi byggde upp Europa. Sen n\u00e4r det \u00e4r f\u00f6r sent rustar vi som galningar i tider av total fred, p\u00e5 50-talet hade vi v\u00e4l v\u00e4rldens 5 st\u00f6rsta flygvapen eller n\u00e5t?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:39<\/h2>\n

Denna kanske varit uppe s\u00e5 urs\u00e4kta is\u00e5fall men ett par ukrainare spr\u00e4nger en IFV och f\u00e5r en riktig j\u00e4dra sm\u00e4ll av det \ud83d\ude42
\nhttps:\/\/mobile.twitter.com\/TheDeadDistrict\/status\/1507787843254427649?cxt=HHwWgoCpncHD3uwpAAAA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:44<\/h3>\n

Det som varit helt avg\u00f6rande verkar vara Ukrainas f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att f\u00f6ra r\u00f6rlig strid och strid i ort.
\nAnledningen att Mauriopol \u00f6verlever \u00e4r ju att 4 brigader r\u00f6r sig \u00f6ver hela ytan i grupps och plutonsstrid med n\u00e5n strv knuten till sig.
\n—
\nSen \u00e4r det 3D striden (vet att det \u00e4r fel men kallar den s\u00e5), r\u00f6rlig strid, dr\u00f6nare, artspan med dr\u00f6nare, eld\u00f6verfall, lokala motoffensiver, eld-r\u00f6relse hela tiden som en j\u00e4dra b\u00e5lgetingbo. Sen infiltrera p\u00e5 djupet och sl\u00e5 mot underh\u00e5llet.
\nFr\u00e5gar du mig har v\u00e4st skickat alla sina SOF till international legion.
\n—
\nF\u00f6rsta sm\u00e4llen togs av infanteri med tilldelat strv och IFV, n\u00e5n pluton per kompani typ. Mek och pansar h\u00f6lls tillbaka i reserv. Nu \u00e4r allt med och pansar \u00f6ster om Dnepr och vi f\u00e5r se om Ukraina klara denna typ av strid ocks\u00e5, mina pengar \u00e4r p\u00e5 att dom g\u00f6r det.
\n—
\nRyssland \u00e4r dom som har brist p\u00e5 materiel och erst\u00e4ttningsmanskap inte Ukraina och Ukraina f\u00e5r ju hundratals fungerande stridsfordon som v\u00e4l mest beh\u00f6ver drivmedel och ammunition. Fr\u00e5gar du mig g\u00e5r ammunitionstransporterna fr\u00e5n \u00f6steruropa i ett st\u00e4ndigt l\u00e4mmelt\u00e5g.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:19 Tas Kherson, eller att bron l\u00e4ggs under direkt eld, \u00e4r enda retr\u00e4ttv\u00e4gen f\u00f6r resterna av 6-8 BTG bron vid 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