{"id":6031,"date":"2022-03-29T10:53:35","date_gmt":"2022-03-29T08:53:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-03-29\/"},"modified":"2022-03-29T10:53:35","modified_gmt":"2022-03-29T08:53:35","slug":"2022-03-29","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-03-29\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-03-29"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:53<\/h2>\n

Enligt Wikipediakartan \u00e4r Sumy ej l\u00e4ngre inringad och det b\u00f6rjar n\u00e4rma sig att Chernihiv och Konotop ocks\u00e5 kan \u00f6ppnas upp.
\nMellan Chernihiv och Sumy finns det ju flera ”str\u00e4ngar” av ryskt framryckande, dom har v\u00e4l rullat fram p\u00e5 v\u00e4garna.
\nMed tanke p\u00e5 de 10 eller s\u00e5 brigader som sitter och lurpassar i Kiev dit kriget aldrig kom b\u00f6r det kunna bli n\u00e5n inringning till i triangeln Kiev-Chernihiv-Sumy inom de n\u00e4rmaste veckorna.
\nTill exempel om man kunde rulla norrut p\u00e5 v\u00e4gar v\u00e4ster om huvudleden Kiev – Chernihiv och sedan g\u00f6ra en 90gradare \u00f6sterut. Det kan v\u00e4l vara ett 15tal BTG som framryckt d\u00e4r och senast ig\u00e5r var det ju anfallsf\u00f6rs\u00f6k mot Kiev f\u00f6rorter \u00f6ster om Dnepr.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:16<\/h3>\n

Exakt, i Kiev ligger det v\u00e4l 10 infanterigbrigader som inte haft mycket stridskontakt och kan s\u00e4ttas in \u00f6ster om Kiev s\u00e5 str\u00e4ckan Chernihiv – Sumy \u00e4r v\u00e4l inte l\u00e5ng tid innan dom \u00e5tertagit upp till gr\u00e4nsen gissar jag.<\/p>\n

Vid Kherson har man redan flyttat bort de tunga brigaderna till \u00f6ster Dnepr men det har inte h\u00e4nt s\u00e5 mycket s\u00e5 kanske f\u00e5tt plugga h\u00e5l mer \u00e4n motoffensiv. Ett \u00e5tertagande av samh\u00e4llen ned mot Mariopol lyser dessv\u00e4rre med sin fr\u00e5nvaro s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt. Om jag l\u00e4ser informationen r\u00e4tt finns det nu 3 brigader kvar i Mariopol och National Guards brigaden riskerar att delas av fr\u00e5n marines och azov. Man f\u00e5r v\u00e4l hoppas att Ukraina infiltrerat allt som g\u00e5r bakom fiendens linjer nere i s\u00f6der och k\u00f6r dr\u00f6narstrid 2.0 f\u00f6r att l\u00e4tta p\u00e5 trycket f\u00f6r s\u00e5 mycket annat verkar man inte kunna g\u00f6ra just nu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:23<\/h3>\n

D\u00e5 har man allts\u00e5 d\u00f6dsd\u00f6mt de omfattade 13 BTG eller vad som \u00e4r kvar strax norr om Kiev.
\nSen l\u00e5ter man Chernihiv, Konotop och Sumy bryta inringningen.
\nAllt toppen-bra f\u00f6r Ukraina.
\nJag tror fortfarande att det \u00e4r n\u00e5got lurt med Belarus men kommentarerna blir ju att jag \u00e4r f\u00f6r positiv \ud83d\ude42
\nUkraina har flyttat sina reserver fr\u00e5n SV Kiev och agerar som dom \u00e4r r\u00e4tt s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att Belarus inte kommer anfalla mot Lviv. Gissar att det \u00e4r mycket sabotage i Belarus som g\u00f6r underh\u00e5ll och reserver sv\u00e5rframk\u00f6rda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:31<\/h2>\n

Det \u00e4r v\u00e4ldigt mycket ”Ukraina har inte pansar att anfalla med” och att deras offensiv skulle g\u00e5 i st\u00e5. Det b\u00e4sta dom haft i detta krig \u00e4r dr\u00f6nare och infanteri i kompanis storlek med n\u00e5n pluton strv eller ifv tilldelad. Dom har dessutom m\u00f6rkerutrustning.
\nJag tror inte att pansar \u00e4r den begr\u00e4nsande faktorn i detta krig och att m\u00e5nga motoffensiver har genomf\u00f6rts av infanteri med mindre antal pansar tilldelade.
\n—
\nFramryckningarna mellan Chernihiv – Sumy \u00e4r till stor del utan de tunga brigaderna till exempel och vid Kherson har de tunga brigaderna ocks\u00e5 flyttats bort och nu \u00e4r det v\u00e4l en mek kvar, airborne, marines och national guard.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:44<\/h2>\n

Jag undrar hur det ser ut ned\u00e5t Izyum till?
\nOm Ryssarna forts\u00e4tter vara ryssar kommer dom v\u00e4l kasta sig \u00f6ver Kramatotsk och Sloviansk fr\u00e5n Izyum h\u00e5llet.
\nV\u00e4ntar man p\u00e5 r\u00e4tt tillf\u00e4lle b\u00f6r man kunna sl\u00e5 fr\u00e5n Kharkov rakt \u00f6sterut och kunna st\u00e4lla till med r\u00e4tt mycket skada nu n\u00e4r trycket l\u00e4ttat mot Kharkiv och man s\u00e5 sakta b\u00f6rjar rensa all terr\u00e4ng v\u00e4ster om staden \u00e4nda till Chernihiv.
\nKupiansk vore ett bra anfallsm\u00e5l.
\nNy frontlinje blir Kupiansk – Sloviansk – Yampil – Lychansk?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:23<\/h2>\n

Jag har varit lite k\u00e4nslig f\u00f6r narrativet s\u00e5 att Putin inte skulle f\u00e5 n\u00e5got gripbart s\u00e5 han \u00f6verlever att g\u00f6ra Ryssland till fj\u00e4rde riket och ett hot om 10\u00e5r, 15 tar det v\u00e4l nu efter Ukraina.
\nhan verkar ha f\u00f6r bra grepp om ryssland d\u00e5 han kan g\u00f6ra detta fiasko till vinst om han inte blir utkastad ur donbass.
\nenda s\u00e4ttet \u00e4r att f\u00e5 ig\u00e5ng colour revolution i belarus och ryssland.
\nSen b\u00f6r man \u00f6ver en 12timmars period med start 19:00 sl\u00e5 med Global Hawk och stealth mot alla br\u00e4nsle och ammunitionsdep\u00e5er, knypunkter, ledningscentraler, fartyg och TOS1 och MLRS man hinner med. En sm\u00e4ll och sen f\u00f6rsvinner man. Kanske skyller allt p\u00e5 Polen och att en general agerat p\u00e5 eget bev\u00e5g? Jag tror det skulle funka nu n\u00e4r man har Arleigh Burke jagare i \u00f6stersj\u00f6n och medelhavet med sitt luftv\u00e4rn och patriot i europa.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:44<\/h2>\n

Vi f\u00e5r ju gissa oss till en del men l\u00e4s r\u00f6d textruta i nedan karta,
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/JominiW\/status\/1508632912534589444\/photo\/1<\/a>
\nRyska BTG + rebels – 224 000.
\nUkrainska armen + paramilitary 310 000 och till det kommer 900 000 reserver som v\u00e4l \u00e4r i olika grader av mobilisering och skick.
\nDetta torde r\u00e4cka till lokalt \u00f6vertag p\u00e5 mer \u00e4n en plats, just nu NV om Kiev, Kherson och mellan Chernihiv-Sumy.
\n—
\nDet verkar som problemet kanske inte \u00e4r att n\u00e5 Mariopol men att trycket fr\u00e5n Donbass mot den gamla stillest\u00e5ndslinjen \u00e4r h\u00e5rt och knyter upp det mesta i det omr\u00e5det om man tolkar kartan. Verkar som en mekbrigad f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker n\u00e5 Mariopol och resten av mek+pansar \u00f6ster om Dnepr f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker frontlinjerna \u00f6st.
\n—
\nNoterbart att alla tunga reserver SV om Kiev nu deltar i striderna norr om Kiev eller \u00f6ster om Dnepr och att de tunga brigaderna vid Kherson nu \u00e4r \u00f6ster om Dnepr. F\u00f6r mig ser det ut som att Ukraina \u00e4r tillr\u00e4ckligt s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att Vitryssland inte kommer ge sig in i kriget att dom v\u00e5gat dr\u00e4nera NV Ukraina. Det skulle ju ocks\u00e5 kunna vara s\u00e5 att Polen lovat Ukraina att sl\u00e5 \u00f6sterut om ryssarna f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker \u00f6ppna en ny front ned mot Lviv?
\n—
\nMed tanke p\u00e5 att ryssarna den f\u00f6rsta m\u00e5naden fick stryk av national guard och infanteri f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkta med pansar d\u00e5 ett stort antal av dom tunga brigaderna h\u00f6lls i reserv v\u00e4ster om Dnepr har jag sv\u00e5rt att se att det skulle kunna g\u00e5 b\u00e4ttre f\u00f6r ryssarna nu i rond 2 n\u00e4r alla tunga ukrainska brigader \u00e4r i strid. Dock s\u00e5 \u00e4r ukrainskt underh\u00e5ll l\u00e4ngre men inte l\u00e4ngre \u00e4n f\u00f6r ryssarna.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:31<\/h2>\n

Man f\u00e5r v\u00e4l hoppas att Ukraina tar Ivankiv och st\u00e5r fast d\u00e4r!<\/p>\n

Jag l\u00e4ser i varenda dagstidning att nu skall Ryssarna visa sin goda vilja iom. fredssamtalen och backa fr\u00e5n Kiev.
\nMed tanke p\u00e5 att dom har 13 BTG inringade \u00e4r det ju r\u00e4tt uppbenbart vad dom tycker och t\u00e4nker.
\nMedia har fanken konsekvent varit en megafon f\u00f6r det ryssland vill skall skriva..
\n—
\nDet \u00e4r v\u00e4l ocks\u00e5 l\u00e4mpligt om dom drar sig tillbaka \u00f6ster om Kiev s\u00e5 dom inte blir inringade d\u00e4r ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:07<\/h2>\n

Nu b\u00f6rjas det ”Turkiet kr\u00e4ver ett snabbt eldupph\u00f6r”. Var har turkarna varit senaste m\u00e5naden?
\nSVT, ”Ryssland lovar backa fr\u00e5n Kiev”, har dom helt misssat att Ryssarna \u00e4r inringade?
\nJag har sv\u00e5rt att tro att Ukraina faller f\u00f6r detta men om pressen blir f\u00f6r h\u00f6g internationellt kanske dom f\u00e5r sv\u00e5rt att st\u00e5 emot.
\nSom jag skrev f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra dagar sedan \u00e4r det inte l\u00e5ngt nu tills Ryssland kommer kalla Ukraina aggressor och krigsf\u00f6rbrytare som d\u00f6dar ryska pojkars liv…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:46<\/h3>\n

21:13 vet att det alltid blir mothugg men fr\u00e5gar ni mig s\u00e5 \u00e4r hela v\u00e4sts SOF i international legion och infiltrerade bakom ryssarnas linjer och man har lite covert-ops med global hawk eller stealth mot h\u00f6gprioriterade m\u00e5l, Belgorod \u00e4r ett och Rostov na Don ett annat och d\u00e4r r\u00f6k ju ett t\u00e5g i n\u00e5n typ av mystisk explosion. Sen har vi alla explosioner i Belarus men det kanske vitryssarna sk\u00f6ter sj\u00e4lva.
\n—
\nVill ocks\u00e5 p\u00e5minna om att antalet s\u00e4nkta fartyg har v\u00e4l g\u00e5tt upp till 7 nu, det tog ett skutt fr\u00e5n kanske tv\u00e5 ungef\u00e4r n\u00e4r fartyg b\u00f6rjade bombardera Mariopol s\u00e5 man har kanske gjort det enda r\u00e4tta och slagit ut TOS-1, MLRS och fartyg kring Mariopol f\u00f6r att j\u00e4mna ut oddsen?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:53 Enligt Wikipediakartan \u00e4r Sumy ej l\u00e4ngre inringad och det b\u00f6rjar n\u00e4rma sig att Chernihiv och Konotop ocks\u00e5 kan \u00f6ppnas […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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