{"id":6064,"date":"2022-04-09T13:39:48","date_gmt":"2022-04-09T11:39:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-04-09\/"},"modified":"2022-04-09T13:39:48","modified_gmt":"2022-04-09T11:39:48","slug":"2022-04-09","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-04-09\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-04-09"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:39<\/h2>\n

Ryssland har v\u00e4l lyckats skrapa ihop n\u00e5got i stil med vad dom invaderade med n\u00e4r dom nu f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker med oerfarna och omotiverade reserver men dom kraftsamlar mot Kharkiv och Donbass och f\u00e5r lokalt \u00f6vertag – ta fickan norr om Horlivka och att trycka p\u00e5 s\u00f6derut fr\u00e5n Izyum f\u00f6r att omringa stillest\u00e5ndslinjen. Sen har dom av n\u00e5gon outgrundlig anledning elit-BTG vid Kherson, 6-7-8 eller n\u00e5t s\u00e5nt. Deras totala numer\u00e4r i BTG torde inte \u00f6verstiga det som bloggen skriver och sen har man tik-tok tjetjener, omon, rosgvardia, syrier och donbassrebeller men alla dom har stridit oavbrutet i en m\u00e5nad och \u00e4r nog ganska m\u00f6ra. Sen f\u00e5r man s\u00e4kert r\u00e4kna bort 15-20 BTG som kommer orderv\u00e4gra. Artilleri och flyg finns det f\u00f6r mycket av fortfarande
\n—
\nMot detta st\u00e5r Ukraina med brigader om 200 000 + 100 000 (armen och national batalions\/national guard) och 900 000 reservister som \u00e4r i olika stadier av mobilisering s\u00e5 jag chansar p\u00e5 att man har intakta man\u00f6verf\u00f6rband p\u00e5 runt 300 000man och rej\u00e4lt med infanteri i olika sammans\u00e4ttning som kan f\u00f6rsvara st\u00e4der och flanker. H\u00f6gt stridsv\u00e4rde, stridsvana, refitade med nytt v\u00e4l underh\u00e5llet materiel men \u00f6ster om Dnepr har man ej luftherrav\u00e4lde och ej tillr\u00e4ckligt med luftv\u00e4rn f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rv\u00e4gra ryssarna luftherrav\u00e4lde. Deras elitbrigader, mek, pansar, airborne, marines, mountain har sannolikt f\u00e5tt ers\u00e4ttningsmanskap och bef\u00e4lsstrukturen\/efarenheten har ej slagits ut s\u00e5 dom har bibeh\u00e5llet stridsv\u00e4rde och de brigader som flyttats fr\u00e5n v\u00e4ster om Dnepr till \u00f6ster torde ha f\u00e5tt ny materiel.
\n—
\nDet finns en reserv om 10 tunga brigader v\u00e4ster om Dnepr som Ukraina kan s\u00e4tta in p\u00e5 valfri front. \u00d6ster om Kharkov st\u00e5r det 5 tunga brigader och l\u00e4ngs med s\u00f6dra fronten och stillest\u00e5ndslinjen \u00e4r det ett st\u00f6rre antal tunga brigader som deltar i f\u00f6rsvaret, man har v\u00e4l inga direkta reserver d\u00e4r i dagsl\u00e4get.
\n—
\nNu \u00e4r ju ryssarna just ryssar s\u00e5 det nya svarta denna offensiv kommer bli en absolut massiv artilleribeskjutning d\u00e4r gamla godingar som utpl\u00e5na kilometerruta p\u00e5 karta \u00e5teranv\u00e4nds och flygvapnet kommer g\u00e5 all in. Sen skall dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka trycka p\u00e5 mot Kharkov vilket kommer ta tv\u00e4rstopp, sl\u00e5 s\u00f6derut fr\u00e5n Izyum vilket kommer g\u00e5 sk1td\u00e5ligt n\u00e4r drivmedel och k\u00f6ttsoppa tar slut och sen ta fickan\/b\u00e5gen norr om Horlivka vilket kanske kommer lyckas. Parallellt med detta h\u00e5ller man v\u00e4l p\u00e5 och h\u00e4rjar runt Kherson tills det blir oh\u00e5llbart och man f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker retirera och sen springer tik-tok tjetjenerna runt i Mariupol och tar instagramvideos, h\u00e5ller staden vore \u00f6nskv\u00e4rt.
\n—
\nInom max 2 veckor efter start kommer ett tillf\u00e4lle yppa sig och Ukraina klipper till. Kherson blir inringning eller flykt \u00f6ver Dnepr, all terr\u00e4ng \u00f6ster om Kharkov – norr om Horlivka \u00e5tertas och s\u00f6dra fronten kollapsar ner till Krim (lite beroende p\u00e5 var reservbrigaderna s\u00e4tts in).
\n—
\nSen st\u00e5r Ukraina vid v\u00e4gvalet om dom skall \u00e5terta Krim och Donbass eller inte och fr\u00e5gar ni mig beh\u00f6vs det en total seger \u00f6ver Ryssland f\u00f6r att \u00e5terst\u00e4lla ordningen men det \u00e4r ju upp till Ukraina hur stora f\u00f6rluster dom \u00e4r beredda att ta, det \u00e4r ju r\u00e4tt l\u00e4tt att peka med hela handen som tangentbordskrigare n\u00e4r man inte riskerar en kula i mellang\u00e4rdet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:50<\/h3>\n

Ja n\u00e5t av dom torde sm\u00e4lla av n\u00e4r offensiven k\u00f6rt fast men reaktionen kommer utebli och vad ska han g\u00f6ra d\u00e5, b\u00f6rja sm\u00e4lla av fler taktiska k\u00e4rnvapen eller gasa n\u00e5n by till?
\nSekunden en tactical nuke sm\u00e4ller kommer all media i hela v\u00e4rlden g\u00e5 upp i falsett om att Putin \u00e4r den f\u00f6rsta sen hiroshima, dom kastas ut fr\u00e5n s\u00e4kerhetsr\u00e5det, den sista lilla handel som idkas \u00e4r det stopp p\u00e5 och finns det n\u00e5t syskonbarn till en oligark som har kvar pengar fryses dom.
\nDrar han iv\u00e4g n\u00e5t mer potent mot en stad i Europa kommer den skjutas ned, detta m\u00e5ste ju USA n\u00e4stan r\u00e4kna med?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:51<\/h2>\n

Kina r\u00f6stade p\u00e5 rysslands sida i FN och har sett en del filmer fr\u00e5n nyheter i Kina d\u00e4r dom peddlar Rysslands narrativ. Kina \u00e4r inte s\u00e5 neutrala som vi kanske letts att tro h\u00e4r men enligt uppgift v\u00e4grade dom ju att tr\u00e4ffa Shoigu.
\nInte ens \u00e5rets frisyr Kin Jong Un v\u00e5gade bli fotograferad med honom.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:21<\/h2>\n

Fr\u00e5n en prorysk site, verkar som f\u00f6rsvararna har klarat sig ganska bra is\u00e5fall d\u00e5 dom var runt 4000 till att b\u00f6rja med.
\n”In the south, RF have blockaded Ugledar and Novomikhailovka, and begun storming the latter. Also, Basurin has estimated 3,000 to 3,500 enemy fighters remain in Mariupol. And the map there looks something like this”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:39 Ryssland har v\u00e4l lyckats skrapa ihop n\u00e5got i stil med vad dom invaderade med n\u00e4r dom nu f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker med […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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