{"id":6066,"date":"2022-04-11T00:16:31","date_gmt":"2022-04-10T22:16:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-04-11\/"},"modified":"2022-04-11T00:16:31","modified_gmt":"2022-04-10T22:16:31","slug":"2022-04-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-04-11\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-04-11"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

00:16<\/h2>\n

Den kolonn som Ukraina slagit ut och som skall f\u00e5 d\u00f6dstalen upp\u00e5t, kan det vara den mot Izyum som var 13km l\u00e5ng?
\nSom bekant finns det ju 5 brigader som ligger och v\u00e4ntar i flanken och kan det varit ett konventionellt anfall mot kolonnen?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

00:17<\/h3>\n

Var tv\u00e5a eller trea p\u00e5 den bollen ser jag nu, DASTE har sammanfattat det.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:53<\/h2>\n

Den 13km l\u00e5nga konvojen var v\u00e4l p\u00e5 v\u00e4g mot Izyum och k\u00f6rde f\u00f6rmodligen n\u00e5gonstans \u00f6ster om Kharkov.
\nTittar man p\u00e5 v\u00e4garna s\u00e5 m\u00e5ste dom antingen komma otrevligt n\u00e4ra 17th Tank brigade, 81st Airmobile, 25th Airborne eller p\u00e5 v\u00e4gen som g\u00e5r f\u00f6rbi det omstridda Borova, och d\u00e4r vet vi att 128th Mountain brigade satts in som inte \u00e4r s\u00e5 mycket mountain utan snarare pansar med stor stridserfarenhet fr\u00e5n Donbass.
\n—
\nUtan att veta n\u00e5gonting chansar jag p\u00e5 att det \u00e4r n\u00e5gon av dessa brigader som tagit tillf\u00e4llet att klippa till mot konvojen, det eller att man provat alla nya switchblade-suicide drones p\u00e5 en g\u00e5ng \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:03<\/h2>\n

Det har varit mycket f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning under natten russian style, allts\u00e5 mot st\u00e4der.
\nSm\u00e4llen i Mykolaiv var s\u00e5 stor att n\u00e5n p\u00e5 den ukrainska sidan testade f\u00f6r radioaktivitet (enligt proryska rykten…) och vi gissade vilt ig\u00e5rkv\u00e4ll. Var det ett magasin med nitrium i hamnen och en lycktr\u00e4ff?
\n—
\nF\u00f6r mig ser det ut som man inlett f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpningsfasen av putins hypade v\u00e5roffensiv, f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning mot Kharkov, Mykolaiv och st\u00e4der i stillest\u00e5ndslinjen. Detta skall d\u00e5 f\u00f6ljas av ett samtidigt fram\u00e5t vid Kharkov, Donbass, Luhansk, s\u00f6dra fronten och Donbass om n\u00e5gra dagar. En kvalificerad gissning blir att det dras ig\u00e5ng \u00f6ver n\u00e5gra dagar f\u00f6r att detta \u00e4r ryssar.
\n—
\nMed tanke p\u00e5 allt underh\u00e5ll som brunnit upp och hur Ukraina har i n\u00e5gon m\u00e5n decimerat i stort sett alla konvojer som f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt ta sig ned fr\u00e5n norra fronten till \u00f6ster om Kharkov s\u00e5 \u00e4r nog chansen ganska stor att detta inte blir mycket till en offensiv. Bunkerdv\u00e4rgen kommer nog tvinga bef\u00e4lhavarna att g\u00e5 all in med det dom har men det tar nog stopp r\u00e4tt fort. Vi f\u00e5r se.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:13<\/h2>\n

S\u00e5 h\u00e4r st\u00e5r det hos Militaryland, ”Ukrainian HQ suspects that Russian army might go for Dnipro instead, and the Slovyansk operation is just a diversion”.
\n—
\nDet skulle v\u00e4l inte vara helt orimligt t\u00e4nkt av bunkerdv\u00e4rgen, go big – st\u00e4ng av broarna \u00f6ver Dnipro och Zaporiznye och vinn kriget innan 9 Maj i st\u00f6rsta m\u00f6jliga stil. Nu \u00e4r problemet att Ukraina har mobiliserat och ryssarnas BTG \u00e4r i d\u00e5ligt skick och i Belgorod sm\u00e4ller det dagligen som den v\u00e4rsta ny\u00e5rsfest.
\n—
\nTittar ni p\u00e5 kartan s\u00e5 finns det en naturlig f\u00f6rsvarslinje Dnipro – Pavlograd – Troitske\/Slovyanska som Ryssarna ej kommer f\u00f6rbi. Den kan bef\u00e4stas med National Guards infanteri med tilldelad pansarpluton eller antitankvapen.
\nDet \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 d\u00e5ligt med v\u00e4gar s\u00e5 dom kan inte direkt myllra ned\u00e5t om dom nu funderat p\u00e5 att inte k\u00f6ra p\u00e5 kolonn l\u00e4ngre.
\n—
\nOch \u00e5terigen, NV om Izyim finns 17th Tank brigade, 25th Airborne och 81st Airmobile som kan klippa allt underh\u00e5ll vid r\u00e4tt tillf\u00e4lle.
\n—
\nEn tidig slutsats \u00e4r nog att vare sig Ryssarna forts\u00e4tter S fr\u00e5n Izyum eller viker av SV vid Barvinkove mot Dnipro s\u00e5 \u00e4r detta f\u00f6retag d\u00f6dsd\u00f6mt utan att ha uppn\u00e5t ett strategiskt m\u00e5l.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:20<\/h2>\n

Jag tror ocks\u00e5 jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r Ukrainas iskalla taktik vid den s\u00f6dra fronten, Mariupol h\u00e5ller ut och Ryssarna f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker sig p\u00e5 ett anfall norrut vid den s\u00f6dra fronten som kommer sl\u00e5s ut ganska omg\u00e5ende och sedan blir det Ukrainsk motoffensiv s\u00f6derut som dels st\u00e4nger av broarna vid Khakovka och Kherson p\u00e5 den \u00f6stra sidan och dels befriar Mariupol. Dom beh\u00f6ver l\u00e5ta ryssarna decimera sig sj\u00e4lva f\u00f6rst och l\u00e4mna sina f\u00f6rsvarsst\u00e4llningar.
\n—
\nVad de 10 tunga brigaderna i reserv har f\u00f6r uppgift vete fanken, kanske f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka den s\u00f6dra fronten med ett par och resten g\u00e5r mot Donbass? Sj\u00e4lva stillest\u00e5ndslinje-Donbass k\u00e4nns lite som ett sj\u00e4lvmordsuppdrag f\u00f6r Ukraina att ta sig igenom, d\u00e4r m\u00e5ste man nog \u00f6ver flera veckor anv\u00e4nda precisionsartilleri och dr\u00f6nare f\u00f6r att plocka bort f\u00f6rsvaret innan man kan rulla igenom med rimliga f\u00f6rluster. Men kan man centrera allt man har d\u00e4r i form av artilleri och dr\u00f6nare \u00e4r det ju bara en tidsfr\u00e5ga.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:30<\/h2>\n

Jag postar en prorysk analys, bloggaren f\u00e5r ta bort om det ej \u00e4r enligt reglerna.
\nhttps:\/\/thesaker.is\/sitrep-operation-z-7\/<\/a>
\n—
\nDet jag vill visa \u00e4r att det har b\u00f6rjat smyga sig in en underton av att ”ja, Ukraina sl\u00e5ss bra men inte tillr\u00e4ckligt bra f\u00f6r v\u00e5r arme i v\u00e4rldsklass, v\u00e4nta bara” och ”anledningen att det g\u00e5tt l\u00e5ngsamt\/d\u00e5ligt \u00e4r USAs, EU, alla andras fel”.
\nS\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e4t det inte f\u00f6rsta m\u00e5naden, dels f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker man hitta sk\u00e4l till varf\u00f6r allt inte g\u00e5tt enligt plan och sen som den b\u00e4sta av tolv\u00e5ringar skylla allt p\u00e5 n\u00e5gon annan. Detta \u00e4r ett mycket gott tecken, det triumfatoriska tonl\u00e4get \u00e4r r\u00e4tt d\u00e4mpat nu men man hypar den stora v\u00e5roffensiven fortfarande.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:37<\/h2>\n

Med risk f\u00f6r att jag \u00e5kt p\u00e5 en psyops igen men det \u00e4r dels en facebook post fr\u00e5n marines i Mariupol som \u00e4r negativ och varf\u00f6r dom inte kan forts\u00e4tta k\u00e4mpa och en f\u00e5ngvideo p\u00e5 n\u00e5got som ser ut som kapitulerande f\u00e4ltsoldater och som skulle kunna vara autentisk, 160st enligt prorysk site.
\n—
\nVad tror tr\u00e5den om detta, fake news igen eller har den f\u00f6rsta gruppen kapitulerat? Enligt ryssarna skall det ju vara 3000-3500 kvar s\u00e5 en kapitulation av 160 soldater \u00e4r ju ingen gamechanger.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:13<\/h2>\n

Jag har \u00e4rligt talat mycket sv\u00e5rt att f\u00e5 ihop detta, en rysk BTG \u00e4r runt 600 man stark. Om det nu skulle vara 90 till antalet \u00e4r det 54 000, resten \u00e4r v\u00e4l artilleri, bakre, underh\u00e5ll osv.
\n—
\nUkrainas 10 reservbrigader av mek, pansar, airborne och mountain \u00e4r ju bara dom 60 000.
\nFaktum \u00e4r att dom har v\u00e4l runt 25 elitbrigader vilket \u00e4r en numer\u00e4r p\u00e5 runt 150 000 och sen tillkommer allt annat med totalt i man\u00f6verf\u00f6rband kanske 300 000. Detta \u00e4r s\u00e5klart inte r\u00e4ttvisande siffror men det \u00e4r i den storleksordningen. Och d\u00e4rtill hur mycket National Guard och annat infanteri som helst, n\u00e4stan o\u00e4ndligt.
\n—
\nVi s\u00e5g i morse n\u00e5gon som f\u00f6rbandssatt Izyum anfallet och det \u00e4r typ 10 BTG n\u00e4r Ukraina bara i deras flank har kanske 12 BTG i 3 brigader som bara v\u00e4ntar. Vad i hela helskotta h\u00e5ller Ryssarna p\u00e5 med? Dom kommer bli helt bortsopade s\u00e5 fort dom exponerar sig. Donbass rebellerna var 100 000 till antalet eller liknande men har k\u00f6rts stenh\u00e5rt i en m\u00e5nad nu och sen allt annat l\u00f6st \u00e4r ju inget att r\u00e4kna med, s\u00e5 fort tik-tok tjetjenerna uts\u00e4tts f\u00f6r n\u00e5got annat \u00e4n civilister kommer dom springa.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:30<\/h3>\n

Ja sorry tr\u00e5den f\u00f6r jag s\u00e5g nu att detta redan diskuterats r\u00e4tt intensivt, man \u00e4r borta ett tag och n\u00e5got dyker upp som man m\u00e5ste skriva om utan att l\u00e4sa senaste inl\u00e4ggen, b\u00e4ttring snarast.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:19<\/h2>\n

Inf\u00f6r em flygf\u00f6rbudszon i S\u00d6 ukraina och sl\u00e5 mot artilleri grupperat mot Mariupol.
\nEn lagom eskalering som kanske g\u00f6r att Mariupol klarar sig om ukraina kan s\u00e4tta sina mekbrigader p\u00e5 rull f\u00f6r att bryta inringningen.
\nFattar att man m\u00e5ste bek\u00e4mpa luftv\u00e4rn men tv\u00e5 dagar borde v\u00e4l r\u00e4cka?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:28<\/h2>\n

Har Ryssland fortfarande utlyst n\u00e5t \u00f6vningsomr\u00e5de i Azovsj\u00f6n?
\nDet \u00e4r ju fortfarande inte krig enligt dom s\u00e5 kan man k\u00f6ra in till Mariupol med en amerikansk jagare och l\u00e4gga till vid kaj?
\nVad f\u00e5r man under bron vid kertj?
\nSv\u00e5ra blir v\u00e4l att f\u00e5 ombord ukrainarna\u2026
\nN\u00e5t m\u00e5ste man ju kunna g\u00f6ra f\u00f6r Mariupol, st\u00f6r mig lite att ukraina inte f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt sig p\u00e5 ett fritagningaf\u00f6rs\u00f6k men aituationen \u00e4r kanske b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n vad vi tror.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

00:16 Den kolonn som Ukraina slagit ut och som skall f\u00e5 d\u00f6dstalen upp\u00e5t, kan det vara den mot Izyum som 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